Policing, rule of law, state capacity and sustainable peace in Timor-Leste

This paper sets out to demonstrate the link between development, state capacity and peace, employing Timor-Leste as the case study. It employs the association between state capacity and development to illustrate where if state capacity is lacking or functions improperly there is likely to be a low level of state legitimacy. This in turn manifests as lack of respect for or failure of rule of law, developing as generalised lawlessness and anti-state activity and eventually manifesting as intra-state or civil conflict. In particular, policing is seen as a critical component in state legitimacy, being the 'front line' of the judicial system from which legitimacy ultimately derives. This issue is particularly critical in states emerging from traditional legal and judicial structures, but which have not yet articulated into 'rational-legal' structures. Ipso facto, key state institutions, such as the judicial system and police are required to function well, while these are alone not enough to guarantee peace, they are significant contributors to and guarantors of peace.

Potential applications of discrete-event simulation and fuzzy rule-based systems to structural reliability and availability

This chapter discusses and illustrates some potential applications of discrete-event simulation (DES) techniques in structural reliability and availability analysis, emphasizing the convenience of using probabilistic approaches in modern building and civil engineering practices. After reviewing existing literature on the topic, some advantages of probabilistic techniques over analytical ones are highlighted. Then, we introduce a general framework for performing structural reliability and availability analysis through DES. Our methodology proposes the use of statistical distributions and techniques – such as survival analysis – to model component-level reliability. Then, using failure- and repair-time distributions and information about the structural logical topology (which allows determination of the structural state from their components’ state), structural reliability, and availability information can be inferred. Two numerical examples illustrate some potential applications of the proposed methodology to achieving more reliable and structural designs. Finally, an alternative approach to model uncertainty at component level is also introduced as ongoing work. This new approach is based on the use of fuzzy rule-based systems and it allows the introduction of experts’ opinions and evaluations in our methodology.

Geographical variation in bill size across bird species provides evidence for Allen's rule

Allen’s rule proposes that the appendages of endotherms are smaller, relative to body size, in colder climates, in order to reduce heat loss. Empirical support for Allen’s rule is mainly derived from occasional reports of geographical clines in extremity size of individual species. Interspecific evidence is restricted to two studies of leg proportions in seabirds and shorebirds. We used phylogenetic comparative analyses of 214 bird species to examine whether bird bills, significant sites of heat exchange, conform to Allen’s rule. The species comprised eight diverse taxonomic groups—toucans, African barbets, Australian parrots, estrildid finches, Canadian galliforms, penguins, gulls, and terns. Across all species, there were strongly significant relationships between bill length and both latitude and environmental temperature, with species in colder climates having significantly shorter bills. Patterns supporting Allen’s rule in relation to latitudinal or altitudinal distribution held within all groups except the finches. Evidence for a direct association with temperature was found within four groups (parrots, galliforms, penguins, and gulls). Support for Allen’s rule in leg elements was weaker, suggesting that bird bills may be more susceptible to thermoregulatory constraints generally. Our results provide the strongest comparative support yet published for Allen’s rule and demonstrate that thermoregulation has been an important factor in shaping the evolution of bird bills.

Hierarchical rule generalisation for speaker identification in fiction books

This paper presents a hierarchical pattern matching and generalisation technique which is applied to the problem of locating the correct speaker of quoted speech found in fiction books. Patterns from a training set are generalised to create a small number of rules, which can be used to identify items of interest within the text. The pattern matching technique is applied to finding the Speech-Verb, Actor and Speaker of quotes found in ction books. The technique performs well over the training data, resulting in rule-sets many times smaller than the training set, but providing very high accuracy. While the rule-set generalised from one book is less effective when applied to different books than an approach based on hand coded heuristics, performance is comparable when testing on data closely related to the training set.

On 4 June 2008 Siberian Red Knots at Elbe Mouth kissed the canonical evening migration departure rule goodbye

Observations of departing Siberian-breeding Red Knots Calidris canutus canutus from their central staging site during northward migration, the Schleswig-Holstein Wadden Sea, Germany, in early June 2008, challenge the established notion that departing long-distance migrating waders only leave around sunset. During four days we scanned several thousand Red Knots for colour-ringed individuals and found a total of 20 different individuals that were previously ringed at either their main wintering site, the Banc d'Arguin in Mauritania, or at stopover sites on the Atlantic coast of France. Body masses of captured Red Knots in Schleswig-Holstein were higher than 200 g and hematocrite values showed an average of 58%, clearly indicating that they were ready for take-off. On all except one evening, we noted impressive departure movements during the incoming tide. On that exceptional evening a cold front thunderstorm passed over the area. Late the next morning, thousands of Red Knots departed during the incoming tide. We assume that the birds avoided taking off in adverse weather conditions and elaborate why Red Knots presumably traded off advantages from departing during twilight. We suggest that during spring migration, schedules are so tight that further delays decrease fitness, either because it would cause another full day of exposure to high predation risk by falcons, or because of conditions upon arrival on the tundra.

Ambient slide guitar short

A short instrumental featuring slide guitar, drums, a synth pass and pad.

Two steps forward, one step back : Indonesia’s arduous path to reform

Australians have long worried about whether Indonesia is ‘special’ or ‘normal’. Instead, we need to deal with Indonesia as it really is—a country experiencing simultaneously the challenges of political reform, economic development and a shifting regional security environment. The country’s political future is less certain than we would hope: after SBY’s term of government ends, the choice of a successor will be critical in determining the future of reform. We can’t rule out that Indonesia might slide back to old ways of doing business—democratisation is a fraught process.
As the Indonesian economy grows, so too do the prospects for Indonesia to establish its natural position as the leader of Southeast Asia. As the world is re-examining Indonesia, so too Indonesia is looking afresh at the world—more interested in external issues than it was a decade ago. The Southeast Asian subregion increasingly finds itself at the centre of a more strongly interconnected Indo-Pacific region—so Indonesia’s strategic importance is going up.
It’s important for Australia to build a better strategic relationship with Indonesia. The two are complementary partners. Australia should be proactive in exploring new opportunities for cooperation with a reform minded Indonesia—it’s in our interests to draw Indonesia into a more important strategic role in regional security.
Professor Damien Kingsbury, the author of this Strategy, is the Director, Centre for Citizenship, Development and Human Rights, Faculty of Arts and Education, Deakin University, Melbourne.

A guided rule reduction system for prioritization of failures in fuzzy FMEA

Traditional Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) utilizes the Risk Priority Number (RPN) ranking system to evaluate the risk level of failures, to rank failures, and to prioritize actions. Although this method is simple, it suffers from several shortcomings. In this paper, use of fuzzy inference techniques for RPN determination in an attempt to overcome the weaknesses associated with the traditional RPN ranking system is investigated. However, the fuzzy RPN model, suffers from the combinatorial rule explosion problem. As a result, a generic rule reduction approach, i.e. the Guided Rule Reduction System (GRRS), is proposed to reduce the number of rules that need to be provided by users during the fuzzy RPN modeling process. The proposed approach is evaluated using real-world case studies pertaining to semiconductor manufacturing. The results are analyzed, and implications of the proposed approach are discussed.