Distance software: design and analysis of distance sampling surveys for estimating population size

1. Distance sampling is a widely used technique for estimating the size or density of biological populations. Many distance sampling designs and most analyses use the software Distance. 2. We briefly review distance sampling and its assumptions, outline the history, structure and capabilities of Distance, and provide hints on its use. 3. Good survey design is a crucial prerequisite for obtaining reliable results. Distance has a survey design engine, with a built-in geographic information system, that allows properties of different proposed designs to be examined via simulation, and survey plans to be generated. 4. A first step in analysis of distance sampling data is modeling the probability of detection. Distance contains three increasingly sophisticated analysis engines for this: conventional distance sampling, which models detection probability as a function of distance from the transect and assumes all objects at zero distance are detected; multiple-covariate distance sampling, which allows covariates in addition to distance; and mark–recapture distance sampling, which relaxes the assumption of certain detection at zero distance. 5. All three engines allow estimation of density or abundance, stratified if required, with associated measures of precision calculated either analytically or via the bootstrap. 6. Advanced analysis topics covered include the use of multipliers to allow analysis of indirect surveys (such as dung or nest surveys), the density surface modeling analysis engine for spatial and habitat-modeling, and information about accessing the analysis engines directly from other software. 7. Synthesis and applications. Distance sampling is a key method for producing abundance and density estimates in challenging field conditions. The theory underlying the methods continues to expand to cope with realistic estimation situations. In step with theoretical developments, state-of- the-art software that implements these methods is described that makes the methods accessible to practicing ecologists.

A novel set of ss-N-biaryl ether sulfonamide hydroxamates as potential MMPs inhibitors: Molecular dynamics simulations and molecular properties evaluation

Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) constitute a family of zinc-dependent proteases involved in the extracellular matrix degradation. MMP-2 and MMP9 are overexpressed in several human cancer types, including melanoma, thus the development of new compounds to inhibit MMPs' activity is desirable. Molecular dynamic simulation and molecular properties calculations were performed on a set of novel beta-N-biaryl ether sulfonamide-based hydroxamates, reported as MMP-2 and MMP-9 inhibitors, for providing data to develop an exploratory analysis. Thermodynamic, electronic, and steric descriptors have significantly discriminated highly active from moderately and less active inhibitors of MMP-2 whereas apparent partition coefficient at pH 1.5 was also significant for the MMP-9 data set. Compound 47 was considered an outlier in all analysis, indicating the presence of a bulky substituent group in R3 is crucial to this set of inhibitors for the establishment of molecular interactions with the S1 subsite of both enzymes, but there is a limit. (C) 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Interactive simulation of flexible parts

Computer simulations play an ever growing role for the development of automotive products. Assembly simulation, as well as many other processes, are used systematically even before the first physical prototype of a vehicle is built in order to check whether particular components can be assembled easily or whether another part is in the way. Usually, this kind of simulation is limited to rigid bodies. However, a vehicle contains a multitude of flexible parts of various types: cables, hoses, carpets, seat surfaces, insulations, weatherstrips... Since most of the problems using these simulations concern one-dimensional components and since an intuitive tool for cable routing is still needed, we have chosen to concentrate on this category, which includes cables, hoses and wiring harnesses. In this thesis, we present a system for simulating one dimensional flexible parts such as cables or hoses. The modeling of bending and torsion follows the Cosserat model. For this purpose we use a generalized spring-mass system and describe its configuration by a carefully chosen set of coordinates. Gravity and contact forces as well as the forces responsible for length conservation are expressed in Cartesian coordinates. But bending and torsion effects can be dealt with more effectively by using quaternions to represent the orientation of the segments joining two neighboring mass points. This augmented system allows an easy formulation of all interactions with the best appropriate coordinate type and yields a strongly banded Hessian matrix. An energy minimizing process accounts for a solution exempt from the oscillations that are typical of spring-mass systems. The use of integral forces, similar to an integral controller, allows to enforce exactly the constraints. The whole system is numerically stable and can be solved at interactive frame rates. It is integrated in the DaimlerChrysler in-house Virtual Reality Software veo for use in applications such as cable routing and assembly simulation and has been well received by users. Parts of this work have been published at the ACM Solid and Physical Modeling Conference 2006 and have been selected for the special issue of the Computer-Aided-Design Journal to the conference.

Investigation on laser shock peening capability by FE simulation

Laser shock peening is a technique similar to shot peening that imparts compressive residual stresses in materials for improving fatigue resistance. The ability to use a high energy laser pulse to generate shock waves, inducing a compressive residual stress field in metallic materials, has applications in multiple fields such as turbo-machinery, airframe structures, and medical appliances. The transient nature of the LSP phenomenon and the high rate of the laser's dynamic make real time in-situ measurement of laser/material interaction very challenging. For this reason and for the high cost of the experimental tests, reliable analytical methods for predicting detailed effects of LSP are needed to understand the potential of the process. Aim of this work has been the prediction of residual stress field after Laser Peening process by means of Finite Element Modeling. The work has been carried out in the Stress Methods department of Airbus Operations GmbH (Hamburg) and it includes investigation on compressive residual stresses induced by Laser Shock Peening, study on mesh sensitivity, optimization and tuning of the model by using physical and numerical parameters, validation of the model by comparing it with experimental results. The model has been realized with Abaqus/Explicit commercial software starting from considerations done on previous works. FE analyses are “Mesh Sensitive”: by increasing the number of elements and by decreasing their size, the software is able to probe even the details of the real phenomenon. However, these details, could be only an amplification of real phenomenon. For this reason it was necessary to optimize the mesh elements' size and number. A new model has been created with a more fine mesh in the trough thickness direction because it is the most involved in the process deformations. This increment of the global number of elements has been paid with an "in plane" size reduction of the elements far from the peened area in order to avoid too high computational costs. Efficiency and stability of the analyses has been improved by using bulk viscosity coefficients, a merely numerical parameter available in Abaqus/Explicit. A plastic rate sensitivity study has been also carried out and a new set of Johnson Cook's model coefficient has been chosen. These investigations led to a more controllable and reliable model, valid even for more complex geometries. Moreover the study about the material properties highlighted a gap of the model about the simulation of the surface conditions. Modeling of the ablative layer employed during the real process has been used to fill this gap. In the real process ablative layer is a super thin sheet of pure aluminum stuck on the masterpiece. In the simulation it has been simply reproduced as a 100µm layer made by a material with a yield point of 10MPa. All those new settings has been applied to a set of analyses made with different geometry models to verify the robustness of the model. The calibration of the model with the experimental results was based on stress and displacement measurements carried out on the surface and in depth as well. The good correlation between the simulation and experimental tests results proved this model to be reliable.

Multi-Scale Modeling for Image Analysis of Brain Tumor Studies

Image-based modeling of tumor growth combines methods from cancer simulation and medical imaging. In this context, we present a novel approach to adapt a healthy brain atlas to MR images of tumor patients. In order to establish correspondence between a healthy atlas and a pathologic patient image, tumor growth modeling in combination with registration algorithms is employed. In a first step, the tumor is grown in the atlas based on a new multi-scale, multi-physics model including growth simulation from the cellular level up to the biomechanical level, accounting for cell proliferation and tissue deformations. Large-scale deformations are handled with an Eulerian approach for finite element computations, which can operate directly on the image voxel mesh. Subsequently, dense correspondence between the modified atlas and patient image is established using nonrigid registration. The method offers opportunities in atlasbased segmentation of tumor-bearing brain images as well as for improved patient-specific simulation and prognosis of tumor progression.

Modeling of transfer kinetics at the serum-cerebrospinal fluid barrier in rabbits with experimental meningitis: application to grepafloxacin

The goals of the present study were to model the population kinetics of in vivo influx and efflux processes of grepafloxacin at the serum-cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) barrier and to propose a simulation-based approach to optimize the design of dose-finding trials in the meningitis rabbit model. Twenty-nine rabbits with pneumococcal meningitis receiving grepafloxacin at 15 mg/kg of body weight (intravenous administration at 0 h), 30 mg/kg (at 0 h), or 50 mg/kg twice (at 0 and 4 h) were studied. A three-compartment population pharmacokinetic model was fit to the data with the program NONMEM (Nonlinear Mixed Effects Modeling). Passive diffusion clearance (CL(diff)) and active efflux clearance (CL(active)) are transfer kinetic modeling parameters. Influx clearance is assumed to be equal to CL(diff), and efflux clearance is the sum of CL(diff), CL(active), and bulk flow clearance (CL(bulk)). The average influx clearance for the population was 0.0055 ml/min (interindividual variability, 17%). Passive diffusion clearance was greater in rabbits receiving grepafloxacin at 15 mg/kg than in those treated with higher doses (0.0088 versus 0.0034 ml/min). Assuming a CL(bulk) of 0.01 ml/min, CL(active) was estimated to be 0.017 ml/min (11%), and clearance by total efflux was estimated to be 0.032 ml/min. The population kinetic model allows not only to quantify in vivo efflux and influx mechanisms at the serum-CSF barrier but also to analyze the effects of different dose regimens on transfer kinetic parameters in the rabbit meningitis model. The modeling-based approach also provides a tool for the simulation and prediction of various outcomes in which researchers might be interested, which is of great potential in designing dose-finding trials.

Teaching Cognitive Modeling Using PDP++

PDP++ is a freely available, open source software package designed to support the development, simulation, and analysis of research-grade connectionist models of cognitive processes. It supports most popular parallel distributed processing paradigms and artificial neural network architectures, and it also provides an implementation of the LEABRA computational cognitive neuroscience framework. Models are typically constructed and examined using the PDP++ graphical user interface, but the system may also be extended through the incorporation of user-written C++ code. This article briefly reviews the features of PDP++, focusing on its utility for teaching cognitive modeling concepts and skills to university undergraduate and graduate students. An informal evaluation of the software as a pedagogical tool is provided, based on the author’s classroom experiences at three research universities and several conference-hosted tutorials.

Design, Simulation und Erprobung einer aktiven Sitzaufhängung für Nutzfahrzeuge

Nutzfahrzeuge müssen oft durch sehr unebenes Gelände gefahren werden. In diesem Fall wird der Fahrer starken Vibrationen ausgesetzt, die von der Fahrzeugkarosserie durch die Sitzaufhängung auf ihn wirken. Um diese Schwingungen zu verringern, werden die Sitzaufhängungen in der Regel mit Feder-Dämpfer-Systemen ausgerüstet. Jedoch erreichen die passiven Systeme vor allem bei niederfrequenten Schwingungen ihre physikalischen Grenzen. Eine wesentliche Verbesserung des Sitzkomforts kann unter solchen Anregungsbedingungen nur mit einer aktiven Sitzaufhängung erreicht werden. In diesem Beitrag wird ein neuartiges aktives System für die Sitzaufhängung auf Basis von elektrorheologischen Flüssigkeiten vorgestellt. Außerdem werden die theoretischen Grundlagen für die Modellierung der beschriebenen aktiven Sitzaufhängung dargestellt. Anschließend werden die Simulationsergebnisse mit den Messergebnissen unter realen Betriebsbedingungen verglichen. Die Repräsentation der Ergebnisse mit Hilfe der im Bereich der Sitztechnik weit verbreiteten SEAT-Werten (Seat Effective Amplitude Transmissibility) zeigt das Potenzial des entwickelten Systems zur aktiven Reduktion der Schwingungsbelastung des Fahrers und ermöglicht seine objektive Bewertung.

Impacts of changing climate and land use on vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean ecosystem: insights from paleoecology and dynamic modeling

Forests near the Mediterranean coast have been shaped by millennia of human disturbance. Consequently, ecological studies relying on modern observations or historical records may have difficulty assessing natural vegetation dynamics under current and future climate. We combined a sedimentary pollen record from Lago di Massacciucoli, Tuscany, Italy with simulations from the LandClim dynamic vegetation model to determine what vegetation preceded intense human disturbance, how past changes in vegetation relate to fire and browsing, and the potential of an extinct vegetation type under present climate. We simulated vegetation dynamics near Lago di Massaciucoli for the last 7,000 years using a local chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction with combinations of three fire regimes (small infrequent, large infrequent, small frequent) and three browsing intensities (no browsing, light browsing, and moderate browsing), and compared model output to pollen data. Simulations with low disturbance support pollen-inferred evidence for a mixed forest dominated by Quercus ilex (a Mediterranean species) and Abies alba (a montane species). Whereas pollen data record the collapse of A. alba after 6000 cal yr bp, simulated populations expanded with declining summer temperatures during the late Holocene. Simulations with increased fire and browsing are consistent with evidence for expansion by deciduous species after A. alba collapsed. According to our combined paleo-environmental and modeling evidence, mixed Q. ilex and A. alba forests remain possible with current climate and limited disturbance, and provide a viable management objective for ecosystems near the Mediterranean coast and in regions that are expected to experience a mediterranean-type climate in the future.

Integrated Segmentation of Brain Tumor Images for Radiotherapy and Neurosurgery

Image-based modeling of tumor growth combines methods from cancer simulation and medical imaging. In this context, we present a novel approach to adapt a healthy brain atlas to MR images of tumor patients. In order to establish correspondence between a healthy atlas and a pathologic patient image, tumor growth modeling in combination with registration algorithms is employed. In a first step, the tumor is grown in the atlas based on a new multi-scale, multi-physics model including growth simulation from the cellular level up to the biomechanical level, accounting for cell proliferation and tissue deformations. Large-scale deformations are handled with an Eulerian approach for finite element computations, which can operate directly on the image voxel mesh. Subsequently, dense correspondence between the modified atlas and patient image is established using nonrigid registration. The method offers opportunities in atlasbased segmentation of tumor-bearing brain images as well as for improved patient-specific simulation and prognosis of tumor progression.

Potentials and constraints of modeling for transdisciplinary co-producing strategies for sustainable water governance

Both climate change and socio-economic development will significantly modify the supply and consumption of water in future. Consequently, regional development has to face aggravation of existing or emergence of new conflicts of interest. In this context, transdisciplinary co-production of knowledge is considered as an important means for coping with these challenges. Accordingly, the MontanAqua project aims at developing strategies for more sustainable water management in the study area Crans-Montana-Sierre (Switzerland) in a transdisciplinary way. It strives for co-producing system, target and transformation knowledge among researchers, policy makers, public administration and civil society organizations. The research process basically consisted of the following steps: First, the current water situation in the study region was investigated. How much water is available? How much water is being used? How are decisions on water distribution and use taken? Second, participatory scenario workshops were conducted in order to identify the stakeholders’ visions of regional development. Third, the water situation in 2050 was simulated by modeling the evolution of water resources and water use and by reflecting on the institutional aspects. These steps laid ground for jointly assessing the consequences of the stakeholders’ visions of development in view of scientific data regarding governance, availability and use of water in the region as well as developing necessary transformation knowledge. During all of these steps researchers have collaborated with stakeholders in the support group RegiEau. The RegiEau group consists of key representatives of owners, managers, users, and pressure groups related to water and landscape: representatives of the communes (mostly the presidents), the canton (administration and parliament), water management associations, agriculture, viticulture, hydropower, tourism, and landscape protection. The aim of the talk is to explore potentials and constraints of scientific modeling of water availability and use within the process of transdisciplinary co-producing strategies for more sustainable water governance.

Potential desiccation cracks on Mars: A synthesis from modeling, analogue-field studies, and global observations

Potential desiccation polygons (PDPs) are polygonal surface patterns that are a common feature in Noachian-to-Hesperian-aged phyllosilicate- and chloride-bearing terrains and have been observed with size scales that range from cm-wide (by current rovers) to 10s of meters-wide. The global distribution of PDPs shows that they share certain traits in terms of morphology and geologic setting that can aid identification and distinction from fracturing patterns caused by other processes. They are mostly associated with sedimentary deposits that display spectral evidence for the presence of Fe/Mg smectites, Al-rich smectites or less commonly kaolinites, carbonates, and sulfates. In addition, PDPs may indicate paleolacustrine environments, which are of high interest for planetary exploration, and their presence implies that the fractured units are rich in smectite minerals that may have been deposited in a standing body of water. A collective synthesis with new data, particularly from the HiRISE camera suggests that desiccation cracks may be more common on the surface of Mars than previously thought. A review of terrestrial research on desiccation processes with emphasis on the theoretical background, field studies, and modeling constraints is presented here as well and shown to be consistent with and relevant to certain polygonal patterns on Mars.

Mineralogical and isotopic record of diagenesis from the Opalinus Clay formation at Benken, Switzerland: Implications for the modeling of pore-water chemistry in a clay formation

Argillaceous rocks are considered to be a suitable geological barrier for the long-term containment of wastes. Their efficiency at retarding contaminant migration is assessed using reactive-transport experiments and modeling, the latter requiring a sound understanding of pore-water chemistry. The building of a pore-water model, which is mandatory for laboratory experiments mimicking in situ conditions, requires a detailed knowledge of the rock mineralogy and of minerals at equilibrium with present-day pore waters. Using a combination of petrological, mineralogical, and isotopic studies, the present study focused on the reduced Opalinus Clay formation (Fm) of the Benken borehole (30 km north of Zurich) which is intended for nuclear-waste disposal in Switzerland. A diagenetic sequence is proposed, which serves as a basis for determining the minerals stable in the formation and their textural relationships. Early cementation of dominant calcite, rare dolomite, and pyrite formed by bacterial sulfate reduction, was followed by formation of iron-rich calcite, ankerite, siderite, glauconite, (Ba, Sr) sulfates, and traces of sphalerite and galena. The distribution and abundance of siderite depends heavily on the depositional environment (and consequently on the water column). Benken sediment deposition during Aalenian times corresponds to an offshore environment with the early formation of siderite concretions at the water/sediment interface at the fluctuating boundary between the suboxic iron reduction and the sulfate reduction zones. Diagenetic minerals (carbonates except dolomite, sulfates, silicates) remained stable from their formation to the present. Based on these mineralogical and geochemical data, the mineral assemblage previously used for the geochemical model of the pore waters at Mont Terri may be applied to Benken without significant changes. These further investigations demonstrate the need for detailed mineralogical and geochemical study to refine the model of pore-water chemistry in a clay formation.

THE NATURAL AND ORTHOGONAL INTERACTION (NOIA) MODELS FOR QUANTITATIVE TRAITS (QTs) AND COMPLEX DISEASES

My dissertation focuses on developing methods for gene-gene/environment interactions and imprinting effect detections for human complex diseases and quantitative traits. It includes three sections: (1) generalizing the Natural and Orthogonal interaction (NOIA) model for the coding technique originally developed for gene-gene (GxG) interaction and also to reduced models; (2) developing a novel statistical approach that allows for modeling gene-environment (GxE) interactions influencing disease risk, and (3) developing a statistical approach for modeling genetic variants displaying parent-of-origin effects (POEs), such as imprinting. In the past decade, genetic researchers have identified a large number of causal variants for human genetic diseases and traits by single-locus analysis, and interaction has now become a hot topic in the effort to search for the complex network between multiple genes or environmental exposures contributing to the outcome. Epistasis, also known as gene-gene interaction is the departure from additive genetic effects from several genes to a trait, which means that the same alleles of one gene could display different genetic effects under different genetic backgrounds. In this study, we propose to implement the NOIA model for association studies along with interaction for human complex traits and diseases. We compare the performance of the new statistical models we developed and the usual functional model by both simulation study and real data analysis. Both simulation and real data analysis revealed higher power of the NOIA GxG interaction model for detecting both main genetic effects and interaction effects. Through application on a melanoma dataset, we confirmed the previously identified significant regions for melanoma risk at 15q13.1, 16q24.3 and 9p21.3. We also identified potential interactions with these significant regions that contribute to melanoma risk. Based on the NOIA model, we developed a novel statistical approach that allows us to model effects from a genetic factor and binary environmental exposure that are jointly influencing disease risk. Both simulation and real data analyses revealed higher power of the NOIA model for detecting both main genetic effects and interaction effects for both quantitative and binary traits. We also found that estimates of the parameters from logistic regression for binary traits are no longer statistically uncorrelated under the alternative model when there is an association. Applying our novel approach to a lung cancer dataset, we confirmed four SNPs in 5p15 and 15q25 region to be significantly associated with lung cancer risk in Caucasians population: rs2736100, rs402710, rs16969968 and rs8034191. We also validated that rs16969968 and rs8034191 in 15q25 region are significantly interacting with smoking in Caucasian population. Our approach identified the potential interactions of SNP rs2256543 in 6p21 with smoking on contributing to lung cancer risk. Genetic imprinting is the most well-known cause for parent-of-origin effect (POE) whereby a gene is differentially expressed depending on the parental origin of the same alleles. Genetic imprinting affects several human disorders, including diabetes, breast cancer, alcoholism, and obesity. This phenomenon has been shown to be important for normal embryonic development in mammals. Traditional association approaches ignore this important genetic phenomenon. In this study, we propose a NOIA framework for a single locus association study that estimates both main allelic effects and POEs. We develop statistical (Stat-POE) and functional (Func-POE) models, and demonstrate conditions for orthogonality of the Stat-POE model. We conducted simulations for both quantitative and qualitative traits to evaluate the performance of the statistical and functional models with different levels of POEs. Our results showed that the newly proposed Stat-POE model, which ensures orthogonality of variance components if Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) or equal minor and major allele frequencies is satisfied, had greater power for detecting the main allelic additive effect than a Func-POE model, which codes according to allelic substitutions, for both quantitative and qualitative traits. The power for detecting the POE was the same for the Stat-POE and Func-POE models under HWE for quantitative traits.

Planktic foraminiferal Mg/Ca and oxygen isotopes, plus estimated d18Oseawater and ice volume corrected d18Oseawater for the past 35000 years of sediment core GeoB10069-3

Evidence from geologic archives suggests that there were large changes in the tropical hydrologic cycle associated with the two prominent northern hemisphere deglacial cooling events, Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; ~19 to 15 kyr BP; kyr BP = 1000 yr before present) and the Younger Dryas (~12.9 to 11.7 kyr BP). These hydrologic shifts have been alternatively attributed to high and low latitude origin. Here, we present a new record of hydrologic variability based on planktic foraminifera-derived d18O of seawater (d18Osw) estimates from a sediment core from the tropical Eastern Indian Ocean, and using 12 additional d18Osw records, construct a single record of the dominant mode of tropical Eastern Equatorial Pacific and Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) hydrologic variability. We show that deglacial hydrologic shifts parallel variations in the reconstructed interhemispheric temperature gradient, suggesting a strong response to variations in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the attendant heat redistribution. A transient model simulation of the last deglaciation suggests that hydrologic changes, including a southward shift in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which likely occurred during these northern hemisphere cold events, coupled with oceanic advection and mixing, resulted in increased salinity in the Indonesian region of the IPWP and the eastern tropical Pacific, which is recorded by the d18Osw proxy. Based on our observations and modeling results we suggest the interhemispheric temperature gradient directly controls the tropical hydrologic cycle on these time scales, which in turn mediates poleward atmospheric heat transport.