Monetary policy with signal extraction from the bond market

Monetary policy is conducted in an environment of uncertainty. This paper sets upa model where the central bank uses real-time data from the bond market togetherwith standard macroeconomic indicators to estimate the current state of theeconomy more efficiently, while taking into account that its own actions influencewhat it observes. The timeliness of bond market data allows for quicker responsesof monetary policy to disturbances compared to the case when the central bankhas to rely solely on collected aggregate data. The information content of theterm structure creates a link between the bond market and the macroeconomythat is novel to the literature. To quantify the importance of the bond market asa source of information, the model is estimated on data for the United Statesand Australia using Bayesian methods. The empirical exercise suggests that thereis some information in the US term structure that helps the Federal Reserve toidentify shocks to the economy on a timely basis. Australian bond prices seemto be less informative than their US counterparts, perhaps because Australia is arelatively small and open economy.

Signal search analysis server.

Signal search analysis is a general method to discover and characterize sequence motifs that are positionally correlated with a functional site (e.g. a transcription or translation start site). The method has played an instrumental role in the analysis of eukaryotic promoter elements. The signal search analysis server provides access to four different computer programs as well as to a large number of precompiled functional site collections. The programs offered allow: (i) the identification of non-random sequence regions under evolutionary constraint; (ii) the detection of consensus sequence-based motifs that are over- or under-represented at a particular distance from a functional site; (iii) the analysis of the positional distribution of a consensus sequence- or weight matrix-based sequence motif around a functional site; and (iv) the optimization of a weight matrix description of a locally over-represented sequence motif. These programs can be accessed at: http://www.isrec.isb-sib.ch/ssa/.

Consumer Advisory Bulletin, Rapid Tax-Refund Loans A very costly way to gain just a few days on tax refunds, January 2008

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Constant coefficient tests for random coefficient regression

Random coefficient regression models have been applied in differentfields and they constitute a unifying setup for many statisticalproblems. The nonparametric study of this model started with Beranand Hall (1992) and it has become a fruitful framework. In thispaper we propose and study statistics for testing a basic hypothesisconcerning this model: the constancy of coefficients. The asymptoticbehavior of the statistics is investigated and bootstrapapproximations are used in order to determine the critical values ofthe test statistics. A simulation study illustrates the performanceof the proposals.

The gain-loss asymmetry and single-self preferences

Kahneman and Tversky asserted a fundamental asymmetry between gains and losses, namely a reflection effect which occurs when an individual prefers a sure gain of $ pz to anuncertain gain of $ z with probability p, while preferring an uncertain loss of $z with probability p to a certain loss of $ pz.We focus on this class of choices (actuarially fair), and explore the extent to which thereflection effect, understood as occurring at a range of wealth levels, is compatible with single-self preferences.We decompose the reflection effect into two components, a probability switch effect,which is compatible with single-self preferences, and a translation effect, which is not. To argue the first point, we analyze two classes of single-self, nonexpected utility preferences, which we label homothetic and weakly homothetic. In both cases, we characterize the switch effect as well as the dependence of risk attitudes on wealth.We also discuss two types of utility functions of a form reminiscent of expected utility but with distorted probabilities. Type I always distorts the probability of the worst outcome downwards, yielding attraction to small risks for all probabilities. Type II distorts low probabilities upwards, and high probabilities downwards, implying risk aversion when the probability of the worst outcome is low. By combining homothetic or weak homothetic preferences with Type I or Type II distortion functions, we present four explicit examples: All four display a switch effect and, hence, a form of reflection effect consistent a single self preferences.

Proximal 11p deletion syndrome (P11pDS): additional evaluation of the clinical and molecular aspects.

The combination of multiple exostoses (EXT) and enlarged parietal foramina (foramina parietalia permagna, FPP) represent the main features of the proximal 11p deletion syndrome (P11pDS), a contiguous gene syndrome (MIM 601224) caused by an interstitial deletion on the short arm of chromosome 11. Here we present clinical aspects of two new P11pDS patients and the clinical follow-up of one patient reported in the original paper describing this syndrome. Recognised clinical signs include EXT, FPP, mental retardation, facial asymmetry, asymmetric calcification of coronary sutures, defective vision (severe myopia, nystagmus, strabismus), skeletal anomalies (small hands and feet, tapering fingers), heart defect, and anal stenosis. In addition fluorescence in situ hybridisation and molecular analysis were performed to gain further insight in potential candidate genes involved in P11pDS.

Prediction of postnatal outcome in fetuses with pulmonary hypoplasia by fetal-MRI: Comparison between lung volumetry and pulmonary signal intensity values

Purpose: Pulmonary hypoplasia is a determinant parameter for extra-uterine life. In the last years, MRI appears as a complement to US in order to evaluate the degree of pulmonary hypoplasia in foetuses with congenital anomalies, by using different methods - fetal lung volumetry (FLV), lung-to-liver signal intensity ratio (LLSIR)-. But until now, information about the correlation between the MRI prediction and the real postnatal outcome is limited. Methods and materials: We retrospectively reviewed the fetal MRI performed at our Institution in the last 8 years and selected the cases with suspicion of fetal pulmonary hypoplasia (n = 30). The pulmonary volumetry data of these foetuses were collected and the lung-to-liver signal intensity ratio (LLSIR) measures performed. These data were compared with those obtained from a control group of 25 foetuses considered as normal at MRI. The data of the study group were also correlated with the autopsy records or the post-natal clinical information of the patients. Results: As expected, the control group showed higher FLV and LLSIR values than the problem group at all gestational ages. Higher values of FLV and LLSIR were associated with a better post-natal outcome. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and accuracy for the relative LLSIR and the relative FLV showed no significant differences. Conclusion: Our data show that not only the FLV but also the relative LLSIR inform about the degree of fetal lung development. This information may help to predict the fetal outcome and to evaluate the need for neonatal intensive care.

Giffen goods and market making

This paper shows that information effects per se are not responsible forthe Giffen goods anomaly affecting competitive traders demands in multi-asset, noisy rational expectations equilibrium models. The role thatinformation plays in traders strategies also matters. In a market withrisk averse, uninformed traders, informed agents havea dual motive for trading: speculation and market making. Whilespeculation entails using prices to assess the effect of private signalerror terms, market making requires employing them to disentangle noisetraders effects in traders aggregate orders. In a correlated environment,this complicates a trader s signal-extraction problem and maygenerate upward-sloping demand curves. Assuming either (i) that competitive,risk neutral market makers price the assets, or that (ii) the risktolerance coefficient of uninformed traders grows without bound, removesthe market making component from informed traders demands, rendering themwell behaved in prices.

iLOGP: A Simple, Robust, and Efficient Description of n-Octanol/Water Partition Coefficient for Drug Design Using the GB/SA Approach.

The n-octanol/water partition coefficient (log Po/w) is a key physicochemical parameter for drug discovery, design, and development. Here, we present a physics-based approach that shows a strong linear correlation between the computed solvation free energy in implicit solvents and the experimental log Po/w on a cleansed data set of more than 17,500 molecules. After internal validation by five-fold cross-validation and data randomization, the predictive power of the most interesting multiple linear model, based on two GB/SA parameters solely, was tested on two different external sets of molecules. On the Martel druglike test set, the predictive power of the best model (N = 706, r = 0.64, MAE = 1.18, and RMSE = 1.40) is similar to six well-established empirical methods. On the 17-drug test set, our model outperformed all compared empirical methodologies (N = 17, r = 0.94, MAE = 0.38, and RMSE = 0.52). The physical basis of our original GB/SA approach together with its predictive capacity, computational efficiency (1 to 2 s per molecule), and tridimensional molecular graphics capability lay the foundations for a promising predictor, the implicit log P method (iLOGP), to complement the portfolio of drug design tools developed and provided by the SIB Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics.

The role of proteolytic processing and the stable signal peptide in expression of the Old World arenavirus envelope glycoprotein ectodomain.

Maturation of the arenavirus GP precursor (GPC) involves proteolytic processing by cellular signal peptidase and the proprotein convertase subtilisin kexin isozyme 1 (SKI-1)/site 1 protease (S1P), yielding a tripartite complex comprised of a stable signal peptide (SSP), the receptor-binding GP1, and the fusion-active transmembrane GP2. Here we investigated the roles of SKI-1/S1P processing and SSP in the biosynthesis of the recombinant GP ectodomains of lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) and Lassa virus (LASV). When expressed in mammalian cells, the LCMV and LASV GP ectodomains underwent processing by SKI-1/S1P, followed by dissociation of GP1 from GP2. The GP2 ectodomain spontaneously formed trimers as revealed by chemical cross-linking. The endogenous SSP, known to be crucial for maturation and transport of full-length arenavirus GPC was dispensable for processing and secretion of the soluble GP ectodomain, suggesting a specific role of SSP in the stable prefusion conformation and transport of full-length GPC.

Use of 2D Sensitivity Encoding for Slow-Infusion Contrast-Enhanced Isotropic 3-T Whole-Heart Coronary MR Angiography.

OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this study was to improve the blood-pool signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and blood-myocardium contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) of slow-infusion 3-T whole-heart coronary MR angiography (MRA).SUBJECTS AND METHODS. In 2D sensitivity encoding (SENSE), the number of acquired k-space lines is reduced, allowing less radiofrequency excitation per cardiac cycle and a longer TR. The former can be exploited for signal enhancement with a higher radiofrequency excitation angle, and the latter leads to noise reduction due to lower data-sampling bandwidth. Both effects contribute to SNR gain in coronary MRA when spatial and temporal resolution and acquisition time remain identical. Numeric simulation was performed to select the optimal 2D SENSE pulse sequence parameters and predict the SNR gain. Eleven patients underwent conventional unenhanced and the proposed 2D SENSE contrast-enhanced coronary MRA acquisition. Blood-pool SNR, blood-myocardium CNR, visible vessel length, vessel sharpness, and number of side branches were evaluated.RESULTS. Consistent with the numeric simulation, using 2D SENSE in contrast-enhanced coronary MRA resulted in significant improvement in aortic blood-pool SNR (unenhanced vs contrast-enhanced, 37.5 +/- 14.7 vs 121.3 +/- 44.0; p < 0.05) and CNR (14.4 +/- 6.9 vs 101.5 +/- 40.8; p < 0.05) in the patient sample. A longer length of left anterior descending coronary artery was visualized, but vessel sharpness, coronary artery coverage, and image quality score were not improved with the proposed approach.CONCLUSION. In combination with contrast administration, 2D SENSE was found effective in improving SNR and CNR in 3-T whole-heart coronary MRA. Further investigation of cardiac motion compensation is necessary to exploit the SNR and CNR advantages and to achieve submillimeter spatial resolution.

Imagerie de diffusion hépatique : facteurs prédictifs du « T2 shine-through effect » dans l'hémangiome hépatique.

Objectifs: Déterminer la fréquence et les facteurs prédictifs de l'effet T2 shine-through (T2st) dans l'hémangiome hépatique (HH). Matériels et méthodes: Entre janvier 2010 et novembre 2011, l'imagerie par résonance magnétique (IRM) du foie de 149 patients avec 400 HH a été revue rétrospectivement. Les caractéristiques lésionnelles : taille, localisation, signal et aspect en T1, T2 et diffusion, T2st, coefficient apparent de diffusion de l'HH et du foie (ADChh et ADCf) et type de rehaussement ont été évalués. Résultats: Le T2st était observé dans 53 % des HH. Sa présence était corrélée positivement avec la taille (p=0,046) et négativement avec ADChh et ADCf (p<0,0001, p=0,021). Le T2st était plus fréquent dans le lobe gauche vs droit (p=0,038), et dans les HH typiques (hypersignal T2 et rehaussement en mottes, p=0,0043). L'analyse multivariée retrouvait comme facteurs indépendants de la présence d'un T2st : ADChh et le type de rehaussement. Conclusion: Le T2st est fréquemment observé dans les HH et notamment les formes typiques. Sa présence ne remet pas en question le diagnostic dans les formes typiques.

Neurally adjusted ventilatory assist can improve arterial oxygenation

INTRODUCTION. Neurally Adjusted Ventilatory Assist (NAVA) [1] is a new spontaneousassisted ventilatory mode which uses the diaphragmatic electrical activity (Eadi) to pilot the ventilator. Eadi is used to initiate the ventilator's pressurization and cycling off. Delivered inspiratory assistance is proportional to Eadi. NAVA can improve patient-ventilator synchrony [2] compared to pressure support (PS), but little is known about its effect on minute ventilation and oxygenation. OBJECTIVES. To compare the effects of NAVA and PS on minute ventilation and oxygenation and to analyze potential determinant factors for oxygenation. METHODS. Comparison between two 20-min periods under NAVA and PS. NAVA gain (proportionality factor between Eadi and delivered pressure) set as to obtain the same peak pressure as in PS. FIO2 and positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) were the same in NAVA and PS. Blood gas analyses were performed at the end of both recording periods. Statistical analysis: groups were compared with paired t tests or non parametric Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. p\0.05 was considered significant. RESULTS. [Mean ± SD]: 22 patients (age 66 ± 12 year, 7 M/15F, BMI 23.4 ± 3.1 kg/m2), 8 patients with COPD. Initial settings: PS 13 ± 3 cmH2O, PEEP 7 ± 2 cmH2O, NAVA gain 2.2 ± 1.8. Minute ventilation and PaCO2 were the same with both modes (p = 0.296 and 0.848, respectively). Tidal volume was lower with NAVA (427 ± 102 vs. 477 ± 102 ml, p\0.001). In contrast respiratory rate was higher with NAVA (25.6 ± 9.5 vs. 22.3 ± 8.9 cycles/min). Arterial oxygenation was improved with NAVA (PaO2 85.1 ± 28.9 vs. 75.8 ± 11.9 mmHg, p = 0.017, PaO2/FIO2 210 ± 53 vs. 195 ± 58 mmHg, p = 0.019). Neural inspiratory time (Tin) was comparable between NAVA and PS (p = 0.566). Among potential determinant factors for oxygenation, mean airway pressure (Pmean) was lower with NAVA (10.6 ± 2.6 vs. 11.1 ± 2.4 cmH2O, p = 0.006), as was the pressure time product (PTP) (6.8 ± 3.0 vs. 9.2 ± 3.5 cmH2O 9 s, p = 0.004). There were less asynchrony events with NAVA (2.3 ± 2.0 vs. 4.4 ± 3.8, p = 0.009).Tidal volume variability was higher with NAVA (variation coefficient: 30 ± 19.5 vs. 13.5 ± 8.6, p\0.001). Inspiratory time in excess (Tiex) was lower with NAVA (56 ± 23 vs. 202 ± 200 ms, p = 0.001). CONCLUSION. Despite lower Pmean and PTP in NAVA, arterial oxygenation was improved compared to PS. As asynchronies may be associated with an increased work of breathing and a higher oxygen consumption, their decrease in number with NAVA could be an explanation for oxygenation improvement. Another explanation could be the increase in VT variability. Further studies should now be performed to confirm the potential of NAVA in improving arterial oxygenation and explore the underlying mechanisms.

Signal analysis of Ney performances

Ney is an end-blown flute which is mainly used for Makam music. Although from the beginning of 20th century a score representation based on extending the Western musicis used, because of its rich articulation repertoire, actualNey music can not be totally represented by written score.Ney is still taught and transmitted orally in Turkey. Becauseof that the performance has a distinct and importantrole in Ney music. Therefore signal analysis of ney performancesis crucial for understanding the actual music.Another important aspect which is also a part of the performanceis the articulations that performers apply. In Makam music in Turkey none of the articulations are taught evennamed by teachers. Articulations in Ney are valuable for understanding the real performance. Since articulations are not taught and their places are not marked in the score, the choice and character of the articulation is unique for eachperformer which also makes each performance unique.Our method analyzes audio files of well known Turkish Ney players. In order to obtain our analysis data, we analyzed audio files of 8 different performers vary from 1920to 2000.