Decision boundary for discrete Bayesian network classifiers

Bayesian network classifiers are a powerful machine learning tool. In order to evaluate the expressive power of these models, we compute families of polynomials that sign-represent decision functions induced by Bayesian network classifiers. We prove that those families are linear combinations of products of Lagrange basis polynomials. In absence of V-structures in the predictor sub-graph, we are also able to prove that this family of polynomials does in- deed characterize the specific classifier considered. We then use this representation to bound the number of decision functions representable by Bayesian network classifiers with a given structure and we compare these bounds to the ones obtained using Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension.

Decision boundary for discrete Bayesian network classifiers

Bayesian network classifiers are a powerful machine learning tool. In order to evaluate the expressive power of these models, we compute families of polynomials that sign-represent decision functions induced by Bayesian network classifiers. We prove that those families are linear combinations of products of Lagrange basis polynomials. In absence of V-structures in the predictor sub-graph, we are also able to prove that this family of polynomials does in- deed characterize the specific classifier considered. We then use this representation to bound the number of decision functions representable by Bayesian network classifiers with a given structure and we compare these bounds to the ones obtained using Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension.

Typing mineral deposits using their grades and tonnages in an artificial neural network

A test of the ability of a probabilistic neural network to classify deposits into types on the basis of deposit tonnage and average Cu, Mo, Ag, Au, Zn, and Pb grades is conducted. The purpose is to examine whether this type of system might serve as a basis for integrating geoscience information available in large mineral databases to classify sites by deposit type. Benefits of proper classification of many sites in large regions are relatively rapid identification of terranes permissive for deposit types and recognition of specific sites perhaps worthy of exploring further. Total tonnages and average grades of 1,137 well-explored deposits identified in published grade and tonnage models representing 13 deposit types were used to train and test the network. Tonnages were transformed by logarithms and grades by square roots to reduce effects of skewness. All values were scaled by subtracting the variable's mean and dividing by its standard deviation. Half of the deposits were selected randomly to be used in training the probabilistic neural network and the other half were used for independent testing. Tests were performed with a probabilistic neural network employing a Gaussian kernel and separate sigma weights for each class (type) and each variable (grade or tonnage). Deposit types were selected to challenge the neural network. For many types, tonnages or average grades are significantly different from other types, but individual deposits may plot in the grade and tonnage space of more than one type. Porphyry Cu, porphyry Cu-Au, and porphyry Cu-Mo types have similar tonnages and relatively small differences in grades. Redbed Cu deposits typically have tonnages that could be confused with porphyry Cu deposits, also contain Cu and, in some situations, Ag. Cyprus and kuroko massive sulfide types have about the same tonnages. Cu, Zn, Ag, and Au grades. Polymetallic vein, sedimentary exhalative Zn-Pb, and Zn-Pb skarn types contain many of the same metals. Sediment-hosted Au, Comstock Au-Ag, and low-sulfide Au-quartz vein types are principally Au deposits with differing amounts of Ag. Given the intent to test the neural network under the most difficult conditions, an overall 75% agreement between the experts and the neural network is considered excellent. Among the largestclassification errors are skarn Zn-Pb and Cyprus massive sulfide deposits classed by the neuralnetwork as kuroko massive sulfides—24 and 63% error respectively. Other large errors are the classification of 92% of porphyry Cu-Mo as porphyry Cu deposits. Most of the larger classification errors involve 25 or fewer training deposits, suggesting that some errors might be the result of small sample size. About 91% of the gold deposit types were classed properly and 98% of porphyry Cu deposits were classes as some type of porphyry Cu deposit. An experienced economic geologist would not make many of the classification errors that were made by the neural network because the geologic settings of deposits would be used to reduce errors. In a separate test, the probabilistic neural network correctly classed 93% of 336 deposits in eight deposit types when trained with presence or absence of 58 minerals and six generalized rock types. The overall success rate of the probabilistic neural network when trained on tonnage and average grades would probably be more than 90% with additional information on the presence of a few rock types.

Temporal correlations of local network losses

We introduce a continuum model describing data losses in a single node of a packet-switched network (like the Internet) which preserves the discrete nature of the data loss process. By construction, the model has critical behavior with a sharp transition from exponentially small to finite losses with increasing data arrival rate. We show that such a model exhibits strong fluctuations in the loss rate at the critical point and non-Markovian power-law correlations in time, in spite of the Markovian character of the data arrival process. The continuum model allows for rather general incoming data packet distributions and can be naturally generalized to consider the buffer server idleness statistics.

Ethosuximide modifies network excitability in the rat entorhinal cortex via an increase in GABA release

Ethosuximide is the drug of choice for treating generalized absence seizures, but its mechanism of action is still a matter of debate. It has long been thought to act by disrupting a thalamic focus via blockade of T-type channels and, thus, generation of spike-wave activity in thalamocortical pathways. However, there is now good evidence that generalized absence seizures may be initiated at a cortical focus and that ethosuximide may target this focus. In the present study we have looked at the effect ethosuximide on glutamate and GABA release at synapses in the rat entorhinal cortex in vitro, using two experimental approaches. Whole-cell patch-clamp studies revealed an increase in spontaneous GABA release by ethosuximide concurrent with no change in glutamate release. This was reflected in studies that estimated global background inhibition and excitation from intracellularly recorded membrane potential fluctuations, where there was a substantial rise in the ratio of network inhibition to excitation, and a concurrent decrease in excitability of neurones embedded in this network. These studies suggest that, in addition to well-characterised effects on ion channels, ethosuximide may directly elevate synaptic inhibition in the cortex and that this could contribute to its anti-absence effects. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled 'Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder'.

Quantifying short-term dynamics of Parkinson's disease using self-reported symptom data from an internet social network

Background: Parkinson’s disease (PD) is an incurable neurological disease with approximately 0.3% prevalence. The hallmark symptom is gradual movement deterioration. Current scientific consensus about disease progression holds that symptoms will worsen smoothly over time unless treated. Accurate information about symptom dynamics is of critical importance to patients, caregivers, and the scientific community for the design of new treatments, clinical decision making, and individual disease management. Long-term studies characterize the typical time course of the disease as an early linear progression gradually reaching a plateau in later stages. However, symptom dynamics over durations of days to weeks remains unquantified. Currently, there is a scarcity of objective clinical information about symptom dynamics at intervals shorter than 3 months stretching over several years, but Internet-based patient self-report platforms may change this. Objective: To assess the clinical value of online self-reported PD symptom data recorded by users of the health-focused Internet social research platform PatientsLikeMe (PLM), in which patients quantify their symptoms on a regular basis on a subset of the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Ratings Scale (UPDRS). By analyzing this data, we aim for a scientific window on the nature of symptom dynamics for assessment intervals shorter than 3 months over durations of several years. Methods: Online self-reported data was validated against the gold standard Parkinson’s Disease Data and Organizing Center (PD-DOC) database, containing clinical symptom data at intervals greater than 3 months. The data were compared visually using quantile-quantile plots, and numerically using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. By using a simple piecewise linear trend estimation algorithm, the PLM data was smoothed to separate random fluctuations from continuous symptom dynamics. Subtracting the trends from the original data revealed random fluctuations in symptom severity. The average magnitude of fluctuations versus time since diagnosis was modeled by using a gamma generalized linear model. Results: Distributions of ages at diagnosis and UPDRS in the PLM and PD-DOC databases were broadly consistent. The PLM patients were systematically younger than the PD-DOC patients and showed increased symptom severity in the PD off state. The average fluctuation in symptoms (UPDRS Parts I and II) was 2.6 points at the time of diagnosis, rising to 5.9 points 16 years after diagnosis. This fluctuation exceeds the estimated minimal and moderate clinically important differences, respectively. Not all patients conformed to the current clinical picture of gradual, smooth changes: many patients had regimes where symptom severity varied in an unpredictable manner, or underwent large rapid changes in an otherwise more stable progression. Conclusions: This information about short-term PD symptom dynamics contributes new scientific understanding about the disease progression, currently very costly to obtain without self-administered Internet-based reporting. This understanding should have implications for the optimization of clinical trials into new treatments and for the choice of treatment decision timescales.

Dimensioning of Telecommunication Network Based on Quality of Services Demand and Detailed Behaviour of Users

The aim of this paper is to be determined the network capacity (number of necessary internal switching lines) based on detailed users’ behaviour and demanded quality of service parameters in an overall telecommunication system. We consider detailed conceptual and its corresponded analytical traffic model of telecommunication system with (virtual) circuit switching, in stationary state with generalized input flow, repeated calls, limited number of homogeneous terminals and losses due to abandoned and interrupted dialing, blocked and interrupted switching, not available intent terminal, blocked and abandoned ringing (absent called user) and abandoned conversation. We propose an analytical - numerical solution for finding the number of internal switching lines and values of the some basic traffic parameters as a function of telecommunication system state. These parameters are requisite for maintenance demand level of network quality of service (QoS). Dependencies, based on the numericalanalytical results are shown graphically. For proposed conceptual and its corresponding analytical model a network dimensioning task (NDT) is formulated, solvability of the NDT and the necessary conditions for analytical solution are researched as well. It is proposed a rule (algorithm) and computer program for calculation of the corresponded number of the internal switching lines, as well as corresponded values of traffic parameters, making the management of QoS easily.

Probabilistic multiple model neural network based leak detection system:experimental study

This paper presents an effective decision making system for leak detection based on multiple generalized linear models and clustering techniques. The training data for the proposed decision system is obtained by setting up an experimental pipeline fully operational distribution system. The system is also equipped with data logging for three variables; namely, inlet pressure, outlet pressure, and outlet flow. The experimental setup is designed such that multi-operational conditions of the distribution system, including multi pressure and multi flow can be obtained. We then statistically tested and showed that pressure and flow variables can be used as signature of leak under the designed multi-operational conditions. It is then shown that the detection of leakages based on the training and testing of the proposed multi model decision system with pre data clustering, under multi operational conditions produces better recognition rates in comparison to the training based on the single model approach. This decision system is then equipped with the estimation of confidence limits and a method is proposed for using these confidence limits for obtaining more robust leakage recognition results.

An epistemic event -based correlation scheme for pervasive network management

Computer networks produce tremendous amounts of event-based data that can be collected and managed to support an increasing number of new classes of pervasive applications. Examples of such applications are network monitoring and crisis management. Although the problem of distributed event-based management has been addressed in the non-pervasive settings such as the Internet, the domain of pervasive networks has its own characteristics that make these results non-applicable. Many of these applications are based on time-series data that possess the form of time-ordered series of events. Such applications also embody the need to handle large volumes of unexpected events, often modified on-the-fly, containing conflicting information, and dealing with rapidly changing contexts while producing results with low-latency. Correlating events across contextual dimensions holds the key to expanding the capabilities and improving the performance of these applications. This dissertation addresses this critical challenge. It establishes an effective scheme for complex-event semantic correlation. The scheme examines epistemic uncertainty in computer networks by fusing event synchronization concepts with belief theory. Because of the distributed nature of the event detection, time-delays are considered. Events are no longer instantaneous, but duration is associated with them. Existing algorithms for synchronizing time are split into two classes, one of which is asserted to provide a faster means for converging time and hence better suited for pervasive network management. Besides the temporal dimension, the scheme considers imprecision and uncertainty when an event is detected. A belief value is therefore associated with the semantics and the detection of composite events. This belief value is generated by a consensus among participating entities in a computer network. The scheme taps into in-network processing capabilities of pervasive computer networks and can withstand missing or conflicting information gathered from multiple participating entities. Thus, this dissertation advances knowledge in the field of network management by facilitating the full utilization of characteristics offered by pervasive, distributed and wireless technologies in contemporary and future computer networks.

An Epistemic Event-based Correlation Scheme for Pervasive Network Management

Computer networks produce tremendous amounts of event-based data that can be collected and managed to support an increasing number of new classes of pervasive applications. Examples of such applications are network monitoring and crisis management. Although the problem of distributed event-based management has been addressed in the non-pervasive settings such as the Internet, the domain of pervasive networks has its own characteristics that make these results non-applicable. Many of these applications are based on time-series data that possess the form of time-ordered series of events. Such applications also embody the need to handle large volumes of unexpected events, often modified on-the-fly, containing conflicting information, and dealing with rapidly changing contexts while producing results with low-latency. Correlating events across contextual dimensions holds the key to expanding the capabilities and improving the performance of these applications. This dissertation addresses this critical challenge. It establishes an effective scheme for complex-event semantic correlation. The scheme examines epistemic uncertainty in computer networks by fusing event synchronization concepts with belief theory. Because of the distributed nature of the event detection, time-delays are considered. Events are no longer instantaneous, but duration is associated with them. Existing algorithms for synchronizing time are split into two classes, one of which is asserted to provide a faster means for converging time and hence better suited for pervasive network management. Besides the temporal dimension, the scheme considers imprecision and uncertainty when an event is detected. A belief value is therefore associated with the semantics and the detection of composite events. This belief value is generated by a consensus among participating entities in a computer network. The scheme taps into in-network processing capabilities of pervasive computer networks and can withstand missing or conflicting information gathered from multiple participating entities. Thus, this dissertation advances knowledge in the field of network management by facilitating the full utilization of characteristics offered by pervasive, distributed and wireless technologies in contemporary and future computer networks.

Continuum tensor network field states, path integral representations and spatial symmetries

A natural way to generalize tensor network variational classes to quantum field systems is via a continuous tensor contraction. This approach is first illustrated for the class of quantum field states known as continuous matrix-product states (cMPS). As a simple example of the path-integral representation we show that the state of a dynamically evolving quantum field admits a natural representation as a cMPS. A completeness argument is also provided that shows that all states in Fock space admit a cMPS representation when the number of variational parameters tends to infinity. Beyond this, we obtain a well-behaved field limit of projected entangled-pair states (PEPS) in two dimensions that provide an abstract class of quantum field states with natural symmetries. We demonstrate how symmetries of the physical field state are encoded within the dynamics of an auxiliary field system of one dimension less. In particular, the imposition of Euclidean symmetries on the physical system requires that the auxiliary system involved in the class' definition must be Lorentz-invariant. The physical field states automatically inherit entropy area laws from the PEPS class, and are fully described by the dissipative dynamics of a lower dimensional virtual field system. Our results lie at the intersection many-body physics, quantum field theory and quantum information theory, and facilitate future exchanges of ideas and insights between these disciplines.