Tools to manage climate risk in cropping (Australia).

Because of the variable and changing environment, advisors and farmers are seeking systems that provide risk management support at a number of time scales. The Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit, Toowoomba, Australia has developed a suite of tools to assist advisors and farmers to better manage risk in cropping. These tools range from simple rainfall analysis tools (Rainman, HowWet, HowOften) through crop simulation tools (WhopperCropper and YieldProphet) to the most complex, APSFarm, a whole-farm analysis tool. Most are derivatives of the APSIM crop model. These tools encompass a range of complexity and potential benefit to both the farming community and for government policy. This paper describes, the development and usage of two specific products; WhopperCropper and APSFarm. WhopperCropper facilitates simulation-aided discussion of growers' exposure to risk when comparing alternative crop input options. The user can readily generate 'what-if' scenarios that separate the major influences whilst holding other factors constant. Interactions of the major inputs can also be tested. A manager can examine the effects of input levels (and Southern Oscillation Index phase) to broadly determine input levels that match their attitude to risk. APSFarm has been used to demonstrate that management changes can have different effects in short and long time periods. It can be used to test local advisors and farmers' knowledge and experience of their desired rotation system. This study has shown that crop type has a larger influence than more conservative minimum soil water triggers in the long term. However, in short term dry periods, minimum soil water triggers and maximum area of the various crops can give significant financial gains.

Development of profitable milk production systems for northern Australia: a field assessment of the productivity of five potential farming systems using farmlets.

Farmlets, each of 20 cows, were established to field test five milk production systems and provide a learning platform for farmers and researchers in a subtropical environment. The systems were developed through desktop modelling and industry consultation in response to the need for substantial increases in farm milk production following deregulation of the industry. Four of the systems were based on grazing and the continued use of existing farmland resource bases, whereas the fifth comprised a feedlot and associated forage base developed as a greenfield site. The field evaluation was conducted over 4 years under more adverse environmental conditions than anticipated with below average rainfall and restrictions on irrigation. For the grazed systems, mean annual milk yield per cow ranged from 6330 kg/year (1.9 cows/ha) for a herd based on rain-grown tropical pastures to 7617 kg/year (3.0 cows/ha) where animals were based on temperate and tropical irrigated forages. For the feedlot herd, production of 9460 kg/cow.year (4.3 cows/ha of forage base) was achieved. For all herds, the level of production achieved required annual inputs of concentrates of similar to 3 t DM/animal and purchased conserved fodder from 0.3 to 1.5 t DM/animal. This level of supplementary feeding made a major contribution to total farm nutrient inputs, contributing 50% or more of the nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium entering the farming system, and presents challenges to the management of manure and urine that results from the higher stocking rates enabled. Mean annual milk production for the five systems ranged from 88 to 105% of that predicted by the desktop modelling. This level of agreement for the grazed systems was achieved with minimal overall change in predicted feed inputs; however, the feedlot system required a substantial increase in inputs over those predicted. Reproductive performance for all systems was poorer than anticipated, particularly over the summer mating period. We conclude that the desktop model, developed as a rapid response to assist farmers modify their current farming systems, provided a reasonable prediction of inputs required and milk production. Further model development would need to consider more closely climate variability, the limitations summer temperatures place on reproductive success and the feed requirements of feedlot herds.

Impacts of improved grazing land management on sediment yields, Part 1: Hillslope processes.

Summary Poor land condition resulting from unsustainable grazing practices can reduce enterprise profitability and increase water, sediment and associated nutrient runoff from properties and catchments. This paper presents the results of a 6 year field study that used a series of hillslope flume experiments to evaluate the impact of improved grazing land management (GLM) on hillslope runoff and sediment yields. The study was carried out on a commercial grazing property in a catchment draining to the Burdekin River in northern Australia. During this study average ground cover on hillslopes increased from ~35% to ~75%, although average biomass and litter levels are still relatively low for this landscape type (~60 increasing to 1100 kg of dry matter per hectare). Pasture recovery was greatest on the upper and middle parts of hillslopes. Areas that did not respond to the improved grazing management had <10% cover and were on the lower slopes associated with the location of sodic soil and the initiation of gullies. Comparison of ground cover changes and soil conditions with adjacent properties suggest that grazing management, and not just improved rainfall conditions, were responsible for the improvements in ground cover in this study. The ground cover improvements resulted in progressively lower runoff coefficients for the first event in each wet season, however, runoff coefficients were not reduced at the annual time scale. The hillslope annual sediment yields declined by ~70% on two out of three hillslopes, although where bare patches (with <10% cover) were connected to gullies and streams, annual sediment yields increased in response to higher rainfall in latter years of the study. It appears that bare patches are the primary source areas for both runoff and erosion on these hillslopes. Achieving further reductions in runoff and erosion in these landscapes may require management practices that improve ground cover and biomass in bare areas, particularly when they are located adjacent to concentrated drainage lines.

Hyperferritinemia -cataract syndrome: Long-term ophthalmic observations in an Italian family

Background Hyperferritinemia-cataract syndrome (HCS) is a rare Mendelian condition characterized by bilateral cataract and high levels of serum ferritin in the absence of iron overload. Methods HCS was diagnosed in three adult siblings. In two of them it was possible to assess lens changes initially in 1995 and again in 2013. Serum ferritin, iron, transferrin concentrations and transferrin saturation percentage were also measured, and the Iron Responsive Element (IRE) region of the L-ferritin gene (FTL) was studied. Results Serum ferritin concentrations were considerably elevated while serum iron, transferrin and transferrin saturation levels were within the normal range in each sibling. Cataract changes in our patients were consistent with those previously reported in the literature. Progression of the cataract, an aspect of few studies in this syndrome, appeared to be quite limited in extent. The heterozygous +32G to T (-168G>T) substitution in the IRE of the FTL gene was detected in this family. Conclusions Ophthalmic and biochemical studies together with genetic testing confirmed HCS in three family members. Although the disorder has been extensively described in recent years, little is known regarding cataract evolution over time. In our cases, lens evaluations encompassed many years, identified bilateral cataract of typical morphology and supported the hypothesis that this unique clinical feature of the disease tends to be slowly progressive in nature, at least in adults.

Mediaş Jewish Community Photograph Collection 1900-1930s bulk: undated

The collection contains more than 60 black and white photographs from the first decades of the 20th century found in the synagogue of Mediaş (Mediasch, Medgyes), Romania. The photographs were found in the process of an on-going clean-up and restoration project and for the most part are unidentified. The photographs are of community members and their relatives and friends; they consist of group family portraits, individual portraits, babies, and children. Some of the photographs originate from Mediaş and other nearby Transylvanian towns, while others were printed by foreign printing shops and were presumably sent to relatives living in Mediaş.

Chromosomal rearrangements, phenotypic variation and modularity: A case study from a contact zone between house mouse Robertsonian races in Central Italy

The Western European house mouse, Mus musculus domesticus, is well-known for the high frequency of Robertsonian fusions that have rapidly produced more than 50 karyotipic races, making it an ideal model for studying the mechanisms of chromosomal speciation. The mouse mandible is one of the traits studied most intensively to investigate the effect of Robertsonian fusions on phenotypic variation within and between populations. This complex bone structure has also been widely used to study the level of integration between different morphogenetic units. Here, with the aim of testing the effect of different karyotypic assets on the morphology of the mouse mandible and on its level of modularity, we performed morphometric analyses of mice from a contact area between two highly metacentric races in Central Italy. We found no difference in size, while the mandible shape was found to be different between the two Robertsonian races, even after accounting for the genetic relationships among individuals and geographic proximity. Our results support the existence of two modules that indicate a certain degree of evolutionary independence, but no difference in the strength of modularity between chromosomal races. Moreover, the ascending ramus showed more pronounced interpopulation/race phenotypic differences than the alveolar region, an effect that could be associated to their different polygenic architecture. This study suggests that chromosomal rearrangements play a role in the house mouse phenotypic divergence, and that the two modules of the mouse mandible are differentially affected by environmental factors and genetic makeup.

Directional dominance on stature and cognition in diverse human populations

Homozygosity has long been associated with rare, often devastating, Mendelian disorders1, and Darwin was one of the first to recognize that inbreeding reduces evolutionary fitness2. However, the effect of the more distant parental relatedness that is common in modern human populations is less well understood. Genomic data now allow us to investigate the effects of homozygosity on traits of public health importance by observing contiguous homozygous segments (runs of homozygosity), which are inferred to be homozygous along their complete length. Given the low levels of genome-wide homozygosity prevalent in most human populations, information is required on very large numbers of people to provide sufficient power3, 4. Here we use runs of homozygosity to study 16 health-related quantitative traits in 354,224 individuals from 102 cohorts, and find statistically significant associations between summed runs of homozygosity and four complex traits: height, forced expiratory lung volume in one second, general cognitive ability and educational attainment (P < 1 × 10−300, 2.1 × 10−6, 2.5 × 10−10 and 1.8 × 10−10, respectively). In each case, increased homozygosity was associated with decreased trait value, equivalent to the offspring of first cousins being 1.2 cm shorter and having 10 months’ less education. Similar effect sizes were found across four continental groups and populations with different degrees of genome-wide homozygosity, providing evidence that homozygosity, rather than confounding, directly contributes to phenotypic variance. Contrary to earlier reports in substantially smaller samples5, 6, no evidence was seen of an influence of genome-wide homozygosity on blood pressure and low density lipoprotein cholesterol, or ten other cardio-metabolic traits. Since directional dominance is predicted for traits under directional evolutionary selection7, this study provides evidence that increased stature and cognitive function have been positively selected in human evolution, whereas many important risk factors for late-onset complex diseases may not have been.

Detection of moisture stress by indicator plots — A simulation

The possibility of advanced indication of moisture stress in a crop by small prepared plots with compacted or partially sand-substituted soils is examined by an analytical simulation. A series of soils and three crops are considered for the simulation. The moisture characteristics of the soils are calculated with an available model. Using average potential evapotranspiration values and a simple actual evapotranspiration model, the onset of moisture stress in the natural and indicator plots is calculated for different degrees of sand substitution and compaction. Cases where sand substitution fails are determined. The effect of intervening rainfall and limited root depth on the beginning of moisture stress is investigated.

Dynamic Factor Models and Forecasting Finnish Macroeconomic Variables

In recent years, thanks to developments in information technology, large-dimensional datasets have been increasingly available. Researchers now have access to thousands of economic series and the information contained in them can be used to create accurate forecasts and to test economic theories. To exploit this large amount of information, researchers and policymakers need an appropriate econometric model.Usual time series models, vector autoregression for example, cannot incorporate more than a few variables. There are two ways to solve this problem: use variable selection procedures or gather the information contained in the series to create an index model. This thesis focuses on one of the most widespread index model, the dynamic factor model (the theory behind this model, based on previous literature, is the core of the first part of this study), and its use in forecasting Finnish macroeconomic indicators (which is the focus of the second part of the thesis). In particular, I forecast economic activity indicators (e.g. GDP) and price indicators (e.g. consumer price index), from 3 large Finnish datasets. The first dataset contains a large series of aggregated data obtained from the Statistics Finland database. The second dataset is composed by economic indicators from Bank of Finland. The last dataset is formed by disaggregated data from Statistic Finland, which I call micro dataset. The forecasts are computed following a two steps procedure: in the first step I estimate a set of common factors from the original dataset. The second step consists in formulating forecasting equations including the factors extracted previously. The predictions are evaluated using relative mean squared forecast error, where the benchmark model is a univariate autoregressive model. The results are dataset-dependent. The forecasts based on factor models are very accurate for the first dataset (the Statistics Finland one), while they are considerably worse for the Bank of Finland dataset. The forecasts derived from the micro dataset are still good, but less accurate than the ones obtained in the first case. This work leads to multiple research developments. The results here obtained can be replicated for longer datasets. The non-aggregated data can be represented in an even more disaggregated form (firm level). Finally, the use of the micro data, one of the major contributions of this thesis, can be useful in the imputation of missing values and the creation of flash estimates of macroeconomic indicator (nowcasting).

First total synthesis of a natural thapsane

A stereospecific first total synthesis of a natural thapsane 1, from the readily available cyclogeraniol 8, is described.

Estimation of variables at ungaged locations by empirical orthogonal functions

A technique based on empirical orthogonal functions is used to estimate hydrologic time-series variables at ungaged locations. The technique is applied to estimate daily and monthly rainfall, temperature and runoff values. The accuracy of the method is tested by application to locations where data are available. The second-order characteristics of the estimated data are compared with those of the observed data. The results indicate that the method is quick and accurate.

Structure of a monochloro bridged polymeric copper(II)-di-2-pyridylamine complex: [Cu(dipyam)Cl(NO3)].0.5H2O

Di-2-pyridylaminechloronitratocopper(II) hemihydrate, [CuCl(NO3)(C10H9N3)].0.5H2O, M(r) = 341.21, monoclinic, P2(1)/a, a = 7.382 (1), b = 21.494 (4), c = 8.032 (1) angstrom, beta = 94.26 (1)-degrees, V = 1270.9 angstrom 3, Z = 4, D(m) = 1.78, D(x) = 1.782 g cm-3, lambda(Mo K-alpha) = 0.7107 angstrom, mu(Mo K-alpha) = 19.47 cm-1, F(000) = 688. The structure was solved by the heavy-atom method and refined to a final R value of 0.034 for 2736 reflections collected at 294 K. The structure consists of polymeric [Cu(dipyam)Cl(NO3)] units bridged by a chloride ion.

Analysis of an Aquifer-water table aquitard system

The problem of pumping an aquifer in an aquifer-water table aquitard system is considered, accounting for the elastic properties of both the aquifer and the aquitard, the gravity drainage in the aquitard and treating the water table as an unknown boundary. The coupled partial differential equations are nondimensionalised, yielding three principal parameters governing the problem. The numerical solution of these equations is obtained for a wide range of parameter values. Type curves are generated and their use is illustrated through a field application.