Variability of surface circulation in the South China Sea from satellite altimeter data

11-year satellite altimeter sea surface height (SSH) anomaly data from January 1993 to December 2003 are used to present the dominant spatial patterns and temporal variations of the South China Sea (SCS) surface circulation through Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The first three EOF modes show the obvious seasonal variations of SSH in the SCS. EOF mode one is generally characterized by a basin-wide circulation. Mode two describes the double-cell basin scale circulation structure. The two cells were located off west of the Luzon Island and southeast of Vietnam, respectively. EOF mode three presents the mesoscale eddy structure in the western SCS, which develops into a strong cyclonic eddy rapidly from July to September. EOF mode one and mode three are also embedded with interannual signals, indicating that the SCS surface circulation variation is influenced by El Nino events prominently. The strong El Nino of 1997/98 obviously changed the SCS circulation structure. This study also shows that there existed a series of mesoscale eddies in the western SCS, and their temporal variation indicates intra-seasonal and interannual signals.

Roles of equatorial waves and western boundary reflection in the seasonal circulation of the equatorial Indian Ocean

An ocean general circulation model (OGCM) is used to study the roles of equatorial waves and western boundary reflection in the seasonal circulation of the equatorial Indian Ocean. The western boundary reflection is defined as the total Kelvin waves leaving the western boundary, which include the reflection of the equatorial Rossby waves as well as the effects of alongshore winds, off-equatorial Rossby waves, and nonlinear processes near the western boundary. The evaluation of the reflection is based on a wave decomposition of the OGCM results and experiments with linear models. It is found that the alongshore winds along the east coast of Africa and the Rossby waves in the off-equatorial areas contribute significantly to the annual harmonics of the equatorial Kelvin waves at the western boundary. The semiannual harmonics of the Kelvin waves, on the other hand, originate primarily from a linear reflection of the equatorial Rossby waves. The dynamics of a dominant annual oscillation of sea level coexisting with the dominant semiannual oscillations of surface zonal currents in the central equatorial Indian Ocean are investigated. These sea level and zonal current patterns are found to be closely related to the linear reflections of the semiannual harmonics at the meridional boundaries. Because of the reflections, the second baroclinic mode resonates with the semiannual wind forcing; that is, the semiannual zonal currents carried by the reflected waves enhance the wind-forced currents at the central basin. Because of the different behavior of the zonal current and sea level during the reflections, the semiannual sea levels of the directly forced and reflected waves cancel each other significantly at the central basin. In the meantime, the annual harmonic of the sea level remains large, producing a dominant annual oscillation of sea level in the central equatorial Indian Ocean. The linear reflection causes the semiannual harmonics of the incoming and reflected sea levels to enhance each other at the meridional boundaries. In addition, the weak annual harmonics of sea level in the western basin, resulting from a combined effect of the western boundary reflection and the equatorial zonal wind forcing, facilitate the dominance by the semiannual harmonics near the western boundary despite the strong local wind forcing at the annual period. The Rossby waves are found to have a much larger contribution to the observed equatorial semiannual oscillations of surface zonal currents than the Kelvin waves. The westward progressive reversal of seasonal surface zonal currents along the equator in the observations is primarily due to the Rossby wave propagation.

Bioenergetic and ecological consequences of diet variability in Atlantic croaker Micropogonias undulatus

Atlantic croaker Micropogonias undulatus is a commercially and ecologically important bottom-associated fish that occurs in marine and estuarine systems from Cape Cod, MA to Mexico. I documented the temporal and spatial variability in the diet of Atlantic croaker in Chesapeake Bay and found that in the summer fish, particularly bay anchovies Anchoa mitchilli, make up at least 20% of the diet of croaker by weight. The use of a pelagic food source seems unusual for a bottom-associated fish such as croaker, but appears to be a crepuscular feeding habit that has not been previously detected. Thus, I investigated the bioenergetic consequences of secondary piscivory to the distribution of croaker, to the condition of individuals within the population and to the ecosystem. Generalized additive models revealed that the biomass of anchovy explained some of the variability in croaker occurrence and abundance in Chesapeake Bay. However, physical factors, specifically temperature, salinity, and seasonal dynamics were stronger determinants of croaker distribution than potential prey availability. To better understand the bioenergetic consequences of diet variability at the individual level, I tested the hypothesis that croaker feeding on anchovies would be in better condition than those feeding on polychaetes using a variety of condition measures that operate on multiple time scales, including RNA:DNA, Fulton's condition factor (K), relative weight (Wr), energy density, hepatosomatic index (HSI), and gonadosomatic index (GSI). Of these condition measures, several morphometric measures were significantly positively correlated with each other and with the percentage (by weight) of anchovy in croaker diets, suggesting that the type of prey eaten is important in improving the overall condition of individual croaker. To estimate the bioenergetic consequences of diet variability on growth and consumption in croaker, I developed and validated a bioenergetic model for Atlantic croaker in the laboratory. The application of this model suggested that croaker could be an important competitor with weakfish and striped bass for food resources during the spring and summer when population abundances of these three fishes are high in Chesapeake Bay. Even though anchovies made up a relatively small portion of croaker diet and only at certain times of the year, croaker consumed more anchovy at the population level than striped bass in all simulated years and nearly as much anchovy as weakfish. This indicates that weak trophic interactions between species are important in understanding ecosystem processes and should be considered in ecosystem-based management.

Dramatic variability of the carbonate system at a temperate coastal ocean site (Beaufort, North Carolina, USA) is regulated by physical and biogeochemical processes on multiple timescales.

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) from anthropogenic sources is acidifying marine environments resulting in potentially dramatic consequences for the physical, chemical and biological functioning of these ecosystems. If current trends continue, mean ocean pH is expected to decrease by ~0.2 units over the next ~50 years. Yet, there is also substantial temporal variability in pH and other carbon system parameters in the ocean resulting in regions that already experience change that exceeds long-term projected trends in pH. This points to short-term dynamics as an important layer of complexity on top of long-term trends. Thus, in order to predict future climate change impacts, there is a critical need to characterize the natural range and dynamics of the marine carbonate system and the mechanisms responsible for observed variability. Here, we present pH and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) at time intervals spanning 1 hour to >1 year from a dynamic, coastal, temperate marine system (Beaufort Inlet, Beaufort NC USA) to characterize the carbonate system at multiple time scales. Daily and seasonal variation of the carbonate system is largely driven by temperature, alkalinity and the balance between primary production and respiration, but high frequency change (hours to days) is further influenced by water mass movement (e.g. tides) and stochastic events (e.g. storms). Both annual (~0.3 units) and diurnal (~0.1 units) variability in coastal ocean acidity are similar in magnitude to 50 year projections of ocean acidity associated with increasing atmospheric CO2. The environmental variables driving these changes highlight the importance of characterizing the complete carbonate system rather than just pH. Short-term dynamics of ocean carbon parameters may already exert significant pressure on some coastal marine ecosystems with implications for ecology, biogeochemistry and evolution and this shorter term variability layers additive effects and complexity, including extreme values, on top of long-term trends in ocean acidification.

Chemical Variability In The Tamar Estuary Southwest England

Procedures for the continuous in situ recording of salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen concentration, pH and turbidity throughout an estuarine mixing profile have been developed. Application of these procedures in a study of the Tamar Estuary, south-west England has demonstrated the considerable temporal (short-term and seasonal) and geographical variability of these properties. The causes and interrelationships of this variability and their general implications with respect to field investigations of estuarine chemical interactions are discussed.

Continuous Plankton Records - Seasonal-Variations In The Distribution And Abundance Of Plankton In The North-Atlantic Ocean And The North-Sea

Charts are presented of the seasonal variations in the distribution of four phytoplankton and five zooplankton taxa in the North Atlantic and the North Sea. The main factors determining the seasonal variations appear to be the distribution of the main overwintering stocks, the current system and, in some instances, temperature control of the rate of population increase. Information is presented about the variation with latitude (over the range from 34° N to 65 ° N) of the seasonal regime of the plankton. On the assumption that there is a relationship between nutrient supply and vertical temperature stratification the main features of this variability can be interpreted. In the south (to about 43° N) nutrient limitation plus grazing appear to be dominant, resulting in a bimodal seasonal cycle of phytoplankton. North of about 60° N the system appears to be limited by the size of the phytoplankton stocks being grazed primarily by Calanus Finmarchicus and Euphausiacea. In an extensive zone, from about 44° N to 60° N, it would appear that the spring bloom of phytoplankton is under-exploited by grazing while in summer the zooplankton graze the daily production of the phytoplankton, the stocks of which are probably maintained by in situ nutrient regeneration. The implications, for at least this mid-latitude zone, that rates and fluxes of processes, as opposed to density dependent interactions between stocks, play a major role in the dynamics of the seasonal cycle is consistent with previously reported observations suggesting that physical environmental factors play a major role in determining year-to-year fluctuations in the abundance of the plankton.

DISCOVERY 2010: Spatial and temporal variability in a dynamic polar ecosystem

The Scotia Sea has been a focus of biological- and physical oceanographic study since the Discovery expeditions in the early 1900s. It is a physically energetic region with some of the highest levels of productivity in the Southern Ocean. It is also a region within which there have been greater than average levels of change in upper water column temperature. We describe the results of three cruises transecting the central Scotia Sea from south to north in consecutive years and covering spring, summer and autumn periods. We also report on some community level syntheses using both current-day and historical data from this region. A wide range of parameters were measured during the field campaigns, covering the physical oceanography of the region, air–sea CO2 fluxes, macro- and micronutrient concentrations, the composition and biomass of the nano-, micro- and mesoplankton communities, and the distribution and biomass of Antarctic krill and mesopelagic fish. Process studies examined the effect of iron-stress on the physiology of primary producers, reproduction and egestion in Antarctic krill and the transfer of stable isotopes between trophic layers, from primary consumers up to birds and seals. Community level syntheses included an examination of the biomass-spectra, food-web modelling, spatial analysis of multiple trophic layers and historical species distributions. The spatial analyses in particular identified two distinct community types: a northern warmer water community and a southern cold community, their boundary being broadly consistent with the position of the Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front (SACCF). Temperature and ice cover appeared to be the dominant, over-riding factors in driving this pattern. Extensive phytoplankton blooms were a major feature of the surveys, and were persistent in areas such as South Georgia. In situ and bioassay measurements emphasised the important role of iron inputs as facilitators of these blooms. Based on seasonal DIC deficits, the South Georgia bloom was found to contain the strongest seasonal carbon uptake in the ice-free zone of the Southern Ocean. The surveys also encountered low-production, iron-limited regions, a situation more typical of the wider Southern Ocean. The response of primary and secondary consumers to spatial and temporal heterogeneity in production was complex. Many of the life-cycles of small pelagic organisms showed a close coupling to the seasonal cycle of food availability. For instance, Antarctic krill showed a dependence on early, non-ice-associated blooms to facilitate early reproduction. Strategies to buffer against environmental variability were also examined, such as the prevalence of multiyear life-cycles and variability in energy storage levels. Such traits were seen to influence the way in which Scotia Sea communities were structured, with biomass levels in the larger size classes being higher than in other ocean regions. Seasonal development also altered trophic function, with the trophic level of higher predators increasing through the course of the year as additional predator-prey interactions emerged in the lower trophic levels. Finally, our studies re-emphasised the role that the simple phytoplankton-krill-higher predator food chain plays in this Southern Ocean region, particularly south of the SACCF. To the north, alternative food chains, such as those involving copepods, macrozooplankton and mesopelagic fish, were increasingly important. Continued ocean warming in this region is likely to increase the prevalence of such alternative such food chains with Antarctic krill predicted to move southwards.

Spatial variability of marine climate change impacts in the North Atlantic

There is an accumulating body of evidence to suggest that many marine ecosystems in the North Atlantic, both physically and biologically are responding to changes in regional climate caused predominately by the warming of air and sea surface temperatures (SST) and to a varying degree by the modification of oceanic currents, precipitation regimes and wind patterns. The biological manifestations of rising SST and oceanographic changes have variously taken the form of biogeographical, phenological, physiological and community changes. For example, during the last 40 years there has been a northerly movement of warmer water plankton by 10 degree latitude in the north-east Atlantic and a similar retreat of colder water plankton to the north. This geographical movement is much more pronounced than any documented terrestrial study, presumably due to advective processes playing an important role. Other research has shown that the plankton community in the North Sea has responded to changes in SST by adjusting their seasonality (in some cases a shift in seasonal cycles of over six weeks has been detected), but more importantly the response to climate warming varied between different functional groups and trophic levels, leading to mismatch. Therefore, while it has been documented that marine ecosystems in certain regions of the Atlantic have undergone some conspicuous changes over the last few decades it is not known whether this is a pan-oceanic homogenous response. Using these two most prominent responses and/or indicative signals of pelagic ecosystems to hydro-climatic change, changes in species phenology and the biogeographical movement of populations, we attempt to identify vulnerable regional areas in terms of particularly rapid and marked change.

Spatial and inter-decadal variability in plankton abundance and composition in the Northwest Atlantic (1958-2006)

The results of Continuous Plankton Recorder sampling in the NW Atlantic between 1958 and 2006 are presented for 11 plankton taxa in eight shelf and deep ocean regions. For shelf regions, phytoplankton abundances increased in the early 1990s, mainly in winter, as the contribution of Arctic-derived freshwater to the Newfoundland (NLS) and Scotian shelves (SS) increased. Farther east, in the sub-polar gyre, phytoplankton levels increased with rising temperatures during the 1990s and 2000s. In both areas, the changes can be explained by increased stratification. The increased influx of arctic water to the NLS in the 1990s was also probably directly responsible for the increased abundances of two arctic Calanus species (C. glacialis and C. hyperboreus) and indirectly responsible for the decreased abundance of Calanus I–IV (mainly C. finmarchicus), perhaps via changes in food composition. On the SS the arctic Calanus species increased in abundance in the 2000s, likely as the result of increased transport from the Arctic via the Gulf of St Lawrence. In the deep ocean, plankton seasonal cycles changed little over the decades and increasing phytoplankton levels in the 2000s were accompanied by increases in zooplankton abundance, suggesting bottom-up control. In shelf regions, phytoplankton increases in the 1990s were in winter and Calanus I–IV appeared earlier in spring than in previous decades. Zooplankton levels generally did not change overall however, perhaps because the species examined were mainly inactive during winter.

Seasonal plankton dynamics along a cross-shelf gradient off northern Spain

The development of population models able to reproduce the dynamics of zooplankton is a central issue when trying to understand how a changing environment would affect zooplankton in the future. Using 10 years of monthly data on phytoplankton and zooplankton abundance in the Bay of Biscay from the IEO's RADIALES time-series programme, we built non-parametric Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) able to reproduce the dynamics of plankton on the basis of environmental factors (nutrients, temperature, upwelling and photoperiod). We found that the interaction between these two plankton components is approximately linear, whereas the effects of environmental factors are non-linear. With the inclusion of the environmental variability, the main seasonal and inter-annual dynamic patterns observed within the studied plankton assemblage indicate the prevalence of bottom-up regulatory control. The statistically deduced models were used to simulate the dynamics of the phytoplankton and zooplankton. A good agreement between observations and simulations was obtained, especially for zooplankton. We are presently developing spatio-temporal GAM models for the North Sea based on the Continuous Plankton Recorder database.

Seasonal ITCZ migration dynamically controls the location of the (sub)tropical Atlantic biogeochemical divide

Inorganic nitrogen depletion restricts productivity in much of the low-latitude oceans, generating a selective advantage for diazotrophic organisms capable of fixing atmospheric dinitrogen (N2). However, the abundance and activity of diazotrophs can in turn be controlled by the availability of other potentially limiting nutrients, including phosphorus (P) and iron (Fe). Here we present high-resolution data (∼0.3°) for dissolved iron, aluminum, and inorganic phosphorus that confirm the existence of a sharp north–south biogeochemical boundary in the surface nutrient concentrations of the (sub)tropical Atlantic Ocean. Combining satellite-based precipitation data with results from a previous study, we here demonstrate that wet deposition in the region of the intertropical convergence zone acts as the major dissolved iron source to surface waters. Moreover, corresponding observations of N2 fixation and the distribution of diazotrophic Trichodesmium spp. indicate that movement in the region of elevated dissolved iron as a result of the seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone drives a shift in the latitudinal distribution of diazotrophy and corresponding dissolved inorganic phosphorus depletion. These conclusions are consistent with the results of an idealized numerical model of the system. The boundary between the distinct biogeochemical systems of the (sub)tropical Atlantic thus appears to be defined by the diazotrophic response to spatial–temporal variability in external Fe inputs. Consequently, in addition to demonstrating a unique seasonal cycle forced by atmospheric nutrient inputs, we suggest that the underlying biogeochemical mechanisms would likely characterize the response of oligotrophic systems to altered environmental forcing over longer timescales.

Thermal front variability along the North Atlantic Current observed using satellite microwave and infrared data

Thermal fronts detected using multiple satellite sensors have been integrated to provide new information on the spatial and seasonal distribution of oceanic fronts in the North Atlantic. The branching of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) as it encounters the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR) is reflected in surface thermal fronts, which preferentially occur at the Charlie Gibbs Fracture Zone (CGFZ) and several smaller fracture zones. North of the CGFZ there are few thermal fronts, contrasting with the region to the south, where there are frequent surface thermal fronts that are persistent seasonally and interannually. The alignment of the fronts confirms that the shallower Reykjanes Ridge north of the CGFZ is more of a barrier to water movements than the ridge to the south. Comparison of front distributions with satellite altimetry data indicates that the MAR influence on deep ocean currents is also frequently exhibited in surface temperature. The improved spatial and temporal resolution of the front analysis has revealed consistent seasonality in the branching patterns. These results contribute to our understanding of the variability of the NAC, and the techniques for visualising oceanic fronts can be applied in other regions to reveal details of surface currents that cannot be resolved using satellite altimetry or in situ measurements.

Seasonal shelf-sea front mapping using satellite ocean colour and temperature to support development of a marine protected area network

Front detection and aggregation techniques were applied to 300m resolution MERIS satellite ocean colour data for the first time, to describe frequently occurring shelf-sea fronts near to the Scottish coast. Medium resolution (1km) thermal and colour data have previously been used to analyse the distribution of surface fronts, though these cannot capture smaller frontal zones or those in close proximity to the coast, particularly where the coastline is convoluted. Seasonal frequent front maps, derived from both chlorophyll and SST data, revealed a number of key frontal zones, a subset of which were based on new insights into the sediment and plankton dynamics provided exclusively by the higher-resolution chlorophyll fronts. The methodology is described for applying colour and thermal front data to the task of identifying zones of ecological importance that could assist the process of defining marine protected areas. Each key frontal zone is analysed to describe its spatial and temporal extent and variability, and possible mechanisms. It is hoped that these tools can provide guidance on the dynamic habitats of marine fauna towards aspects of marine spatial planning and conservation.

Basin-scale phenology and effects of climate variability on global timing of initial seaward migration of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

Migrations between different habitats are key events in the lives of many organisms. Such movements involve annually recurring travel over long distances usually triggered by seasonal changes in the environment. Often, the migration is associated with travel to or from reproduction areas to regions of growth. Young anadromous Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) emigrate from freshwater nursery areas during spring and early summer to feed and grow in the North Atlantic Ocean. The transition from the freshwater (parr') stage to the migratory stage where they descend streams and enter salt water (smolt') is characterized by morphological, physiological and behavioural changes where the timing of this parr-smolt transition is cued by photoperiod and water temperature. Environmental conditions in the freshwater habitat control the downstream migration and contribute to within- and among-river variation in migratory timing. Moreover, the timing of the freshwater emigration has likely evolved to meet environmental conditions in the ocean as these affect growth and survival of the post-smolts. Using generalized additive mixed-effects modelling, we analysed spatio-temporal variations in the dates of downstream smolt migration in 67 rivers throughout the North Atlantic during the last five decades and found that migrations were earlier in populations in the east than the west. After accounting for this spatial effect, the initiation of the downstream migration among rivers was positively associated with freshwater temperatures, up to about 10 degrees C and levelling off at higher values, and with sea-surface temperatures. Earlier migration occurred when river discharge levels were low but increasing. On average, the initiation of the smolt seaward migration has occurred 2.5days earlier per decade throughout the basin of the North Atlantic. This shift in phenology matches changes in air, river, and ocean temperatures, suggesting that Atlantic salmon emigration is responding to the current global climate changes.

Exploring the Red Sea seasonal ecosystem functioning using a three-dimensional biophysical model

The Red Sea exhibits complex hydrodynamic and biogeochemical dynamics, which vary both in time and space. These dynamics have been explored through the development and application of a 3-D ecosystem model. The simulation system comprises two off-line coupled submodels: the MIT General Circulation Model (MITgcm) and the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), both adapted for the Red Sea. The results from an annual simulation under climatological forcing are presented. Simulation results are in good agreement with satellite and in situ data illustrating the role of the physical processes in determining the evolution and variability of the Red Sea ecosystem. The model was able to reproduce the main features of the Red Sea ecosystem functioning, including the exchange with the Gulf of Aden, which is a major driving mechanism for the whole Red Sea ecosystem and the winter overturning taking place in the north. Some model limitations, mainly related to the dynamics of the extended reef system located in the southern part of the Red Sea, which is not currently represented in the model, still need to be addressed.