Implementing systematic review techniques in chemical risk assessment: challenges, opportunities and recommendations

Systematic review (SR) is a rigorous, protocol-driven approach designed to minimise error and bias when summarising the body of research evidence relevant to a specific scientific question. Taking as a comparator the use of SR in synthesising research in healthcare, we argue that SR methods could also pave the way for a “step change” in the transparency, objectivity and communication of chemical risk assessments (CRA) in Europe and elsewhere. We suggest that current controversies around the safety of certain chemicals are partly due to limitations in current CRA procedures which have contributed to ambiguity about the health risks posed by these substances. We present an overview of how SR methods can be applied to the assessment of risks from chemicals, and indicate how challenges in adapting SR methods from healthcare research to the CRA context might be overcome. Regarding the latter, we report the outcomes from a workshop exploring how to increase uptake of SR methods, attended by experts representing a wide range of fields related to chemical toxicology, risk analysis and SR. Priorities which were identified include: the conduct of CRA-focused prototype SRs; the development of a recognised standard of reporting and conduct for SRs in toxicology and CRA; and establishing a network to facilitate research, communication and training in SR methods. We see this paper as a milestone in the creation of a research climate that fosters communication between experts in CRA and SR and facilitates wider uptake of SR methods into CRA.

Copula-based regression models: A survey

In this review paper we collect several results about copula-based models, especially concerning regression models, by focusing on some insurance applications. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regression analysis of mean quality-adjusted survival time based on pseudo-observations

Regression models for the mean quality-adjusted survival time are specified from hazard functions of transitions between two states and the mean quality-adjusted survival time may be a complex function of covariates. We discuss a regression model for the mean quality-adjusted survival (QAS) time based on pseudo-observations, which has the advantage of directly modeling the effect of covariates in the QAS time. Both Monte Carlo Simulations and a real data set are studied. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Violence and reproductive health preceding flight from war : accounts from Somali born women in Sweden

Background: Political violence and war are push factors for migration and social determinants of health among migrants. Somali migration to Sweden has increased threefold since 2004, and now comprises refugees with more than 20 years of war experiences. Health is influenced by earlier life experiences with adverse sexual and reproductive health, violence, and mental distress being linked. Adverse pregnancy outcomes are reported among Somali born refugees in high-income countries. The aim of this study was to explore experiences and perceptions on war, violence, and reproductive health before migration among Somali born women in Sweden. Method: Qualitative semi-structured individual interviews were conducted with 17 Somali born refugee women of fertile age living in Sweden. Thematic analysis was applied. Results: Before migration, widespread war-related violence in the community had created fear, separation, and interruption in daily life in Somalia, and power based restrictions limited access to reproductive health services. The lack of justice and support for women exposed to non-partner sexual violence or intimate partner violence reinforced the risk of shame, stigmatization, and silence. Social networks, stoicism, and faith constituted survival strategies in the context of war. Conclusions: Several factors reinforced non-disclosure of violence exposure among the Somali born women before migration. Therefore, violence-related illness might be overlooked in the health care system. Survival strategies shaped by war contain resources for resilience and enhancement of well-being and sexual and reproductive health and rights in receiving countries after migration.

Violence and reproductive health preceding flight from war : accounts from Somali born women in Sweden

Background: Political violence and war are push factors for migration and social determinants of health among migrants. Somali migration to Sweden has increased threefold since 2004, and now comprises refugees with more than 20 years of war experiences. Health is influenced by earlier life experiences with adverse sexual and reproductive health, violence, and mental distress being linked. Adverse pregnancy outcomes are reported among Somali born refugees in high-income countries. The aim of this study was to explore experiences and perceptions on war, violence, and reproductive health before migration among Somali born women in Sweden. Method: Qualitative semi-structured individual interviews were conducted with 17 Somali born refugee women of fertile age living in Sweden. Thematic analysis was applied. Results: Before migration, widespread war-related violence in the community had created fear, separation, and interruption in daily life in Somalia, and power based restrictions limited access to reproductive health services. The lack of justice and support for women exposed to non-partner sexual violence or intimate partner violence reinforced the risk of shame, stigmatization, and silence. Social networks, stoicism, and faith constituted survival strategies in the context of war. Conclusions: Several factors reinforced non-disclosure of violence exposure among the Somali born women before migration. Therefore, violence-related illness might be overlooked in the health care system. Survival strategies shaped by war contain resources for resilience and

A utilização de modelos de duração para gerenciar risco de crédito

Os modelos hazard, também conhecidos por modelos de tempo até a falência ou duração, são empregados para determinar quais variáveis independentes têm maior poder explicativo na previsão de falência de empresas. Consistem em uma abordagem alternativa aos modelos binários logit e probit, e à análise discriminante. Os modelos de duração deveriam ser mais eficientes que modelos de alternativas discretas, pois levam em consideração o tempo de sobrevivência para estimar a probabilidade instantânea de falência de um conjunto de observações sobre uma variável independente. Os modelos de alternativa discreta tipicamente ignoram a informação de tempo até a falência, e fornecem apenas a estimativa de falhar em um dado intervalo de tempo. A questão discutida neste trabalho é como utilizar modelos hazard para projetar taxas de inadimplência e construir matrizes de migração condicionadas ao estado da economia. Conceitualmente, o modelo é bastante análogo às taxas históricas de inadimplência e mortalidade utilizadas na literatura de crédito. O Modelo Semiparamétrico Proporcional de Cox é testado em empresas brasileiras não pertencentes ao setor financeiro, e observa-se que a probabilidade de inadimplência diminui sensivelmente após o terceiro ano da emissão do empréstimo. Observa-se também que a média e o desvio-padrão das probabilidades de inadimplência são afetados pelos ciclos econômicos. É discutido como o Modelo Proporcional de Cox pode ser incorporado aos quatro modelos mais famosos de gestão de risco .de crédito da atualidade: CreditRisk +, KMV, CreditPortfolio View e CreditMetrics, e as melhorias resultantes dessa incorporação

Unemployment insurance an analysis of optimal mechanisms under aggregate shocks

The purpose of this work is to provide a brief overview of the literature on the optimal design of unemployment insurance systems by analyzing some of the most influential articles published over the last three decades on the subject and extend the main results to a multiple aggregate shocks environment. The properties of optimal contracts are discussed in light of the key assumptions commonly made in theoretical publications on the area. Moreover, the implications of relaxing each of these hypothesis is reckoned as well. The analysis of models of only one unemployment spell starts from the seminal work of Shavell and Weiss (1979). In a simple and common setting, unemployment benefits policies, wage taxes and search effort assignments are covered. Further, the idea that the UI distortion of the relative price of leisure and consumption is the only explanation for the marginal incentives to search for a job is discussed, putting into question the reduction in labor supply caused by social insurance, usually interpreted as solely an evidence of a dynamic moral hazard caused by a substitution effect. In addition, the paper presents one characterization of optimal unemployment insurance contracts in environments in which workers experience multiple unemployment spells. Finally, an extension to multiple aggregate shocks environment is considered. The paper ends with a numerical analysis of the implications of i.i.d. shocks to the optimal unemployment insurance mechanism.

Mortality Risk in Insects

Understanding how and why insect numbers fluctuate through time and space has been a central theme in ecological research for more than a century. Life tables have been used to understand temporal and spatial patterns in insect numbers. In this study, we estimated cause-of-death probabilities for phytophagous insects using multiple decrement life tables and the irreplaceable mortality analytic technique. Multiple decrement life tables were created from 73 insect life tables published from 1954 to 2004. Irreplaceable mortality (the portion of mortality that cannot be replaced by another cause) from pathogens, predators, and parasitoids was 8.6 +/- 7.2, 7.8 +/- 4.9, and 6.2 +/- 1.6%, respectively. In contrast, the mean irreplaceable mortality from all non-natural enemy mortality factors (mortality from factors other than natural enemies) was 35.1 +/- 4.4%. Irreplaceable mortality from natural enemies was significantly lower compared with non-natural enemy factors. Our results may partially explain cases of unsuccessful efficacy in classical biological control, after successful establishment, by showing low irreplaceable mortality for natural enemies, including 5.2 +/- 1.6% for introduced natural enemies. We suggest that the environment (i.e., the degree of environmental stability) influences the magnitude of the irreplaceable mortality from natural enemies. Our results lead to several testable hypotheses and emphasize that it is not possible to estimate the effect of any mortality factor without considering its interaction with competing mortality factors, which has far-reaching consequences for population biology and applied ecology.

Effect of Passive Fit Absence in the Prosthesis/Implant/Retaining Screw System: A Two-Dimensional Finite Element Analysis

The misfit between prostheses and implants is a clinical reality, but the level that can be accepted without causing mechanical or biologic problem is not well defined. This study investigates the effect of different levels of unilateral angular misfit prostheses in the prosthesis/implant/retaining screw system and in the surrounding bone using finite element analysis. Four models of a two-dimensional finite element were constructed: group I (control), prosthesis that fit the implant; groups 2 to 4, prostheses with unilateral angular misfit of 50, 100, and 200 mu m, respectively. A load of 133 N was applied with a 30-degree angulation and off-axis at 2 mm from the long axis of the implant at the opposite direction of misfit on the models. Taking into account the increase of the angular misfit, the stress maps showed a gradual increase of prosthesis stress and uniform stress in the implant and trabecular bone. Concerning the displacement, an inclination of the system due to loading and misfit was observed. The decrease of the unilateral contact between prosthesis and implant leads to the displacement of the entire system, and distribution and magnitude alterations of the stress also occurred.

Mapping soil pollution by spatial analysis and fuzzy classification

Spatial analysis and fuzzy classification techniques were used to estimate the spatial distributions of heavy metals in soil. The work was applied to soils in a coastal region that is characterized by intense urban occupation and large numbers of different industries. Concentrations of heavy metals were determined using geostatistical techniques and classes of risk were defined using fuzzy classification. The resulting prediction mappings identify the locations of high concentrations of Pb, Zn, Ni, and Cu in topsoils of the study area. The maps show that areas of high pollution of Ni and Cu are located at the northeast, where there is a predominance of industrial and agricultural activities; Pb and Zn also occur in high concentrations in the northeast, but the maps also show significant concentrations of Pb and Zn in other areas, mainly in the central and southeastern parts, where there are urban leisure activities and trade centers. Maps were also prepared showing levels of pollution risk. These maps show that (1) Cu presents a large pollution risk in the north-northwest, midwest, and southeast sectors, (2) Pb represents a moderate risk in most areas, (3) Zn generally exhibits low risk, and (4) Ni represents either low risk or no risk in the studied area. This study shows that combining geostatistics with fuzzy theory can provide results that offer insight into risk assessment for environmental pollution.

Some constraints on the modeling using the uranium isotopes U-238 and U-234 for dating groundwaters from Guarany aquifer, South America

Groundwaters from the Guarany aquifer located at the South American continent and sampled at four wells with described geological sections in São Paulo State, Brazil, were chemically and isotopically analysed with two aims: to evaluate the quality of this important hydrological resource and to investigate the possibility of using the natural uranium isotopes U-234 and U-238 as a chronological tool, since the U-234/U-238 activity ratio and dissolved U content data in groundwater systems have generated models for dating purposes.

Riscos nucleares e outros riscos: avaliação e aceitabilidade

The risks of accidents, illness and early death are part of life on Earth, which touches all living creatures, including Mankind. Because of modern mass communication media, the emotional impact of current risks are greater than in the past. Many unnecessary risk can and should be avoided, and with respect to other they can be drastically reduced. In addition to this, some risks should be confronted in order to avoid greater ones. In any risk analysis, eventual benefits should be taken into consideration, the risks surrounding other activities and other factors. Some risks examples and their implications are presented and discussed, in general. Nuclear energy is specifically treated, but it also refers and comments that which surrounds other human activities (airplanes, automobiles, smog, gasoline, DDT, and coal energy). As in the history of aviation, nuclear industry has a history of greater successes than failures. Nonetheless, in both cases, serious accidents deserve deep thought, including the increment of security norms. The current fear of some people to nuclear energy is compared to the unfounded fear at the advent of gasoline last century. Risks, naturally, should not be exagerated, but they cannot be discarded. The main intention of the author is to discuss the complexity of the problem, and to see that risks are evaluated and accepted. In relation to nuclear energy, the author only mentions his point of view, defended in other publications, that it involves very high risks.

Riscos nucleares e outros riscos: Avaliação e aceitabilidade

The risks of accidents, illness and early death are part of life on Earth, which touches all living creatures, including Mankind. Because of modern mass communication media, the emotional impact of current risks are greater than in the past. Many unnecessary risks can and should be avoided, and with respect to others, they can be drastically reduced. In addition to this, some risks should be confronted in order to avoid greater ones. In any risk analysis, eventual benefits should be taken into consideration, the risks surrounding other activities, and other factors. Some risks examples and their implications are presented and discussed, in general Nuclear energy is specifically treated, but it also refers and comments that which surrounds other human activities (airplanes, automobiles, smog, gasoline, DDT, and coal energy). As in the history of aviation, nuclear industry has a history of greater successes than failures Nonetheless, in both cases, serious accidents deserve deep thought, including the increment of security norms. The current fear of some people to nuclear energy is compared to the unfounded fear at the advent of gasoline last century Risks, naturally, should not be exagerated, but they cannot be discarded. The main intention of the author is to discuss the complexity of the problem, and to see that risks are evaluated and accepted. In relation to nuclear energy, the author only mentions his point of view, defended in other publications, that it involves very high risks.

Tuning of fuzzy inference systems through unconstrained optimization techniques

This paper presents a new methodology for the adjustment of fuzzy inference systems. A novel approach, which uses unconstrained optimization techniques, is developed in order to adjust the free parameters of the fuzzy inference system, such as its intrinsic parameters of the membership function and the weights of the inference rules. This methodology is interesting, not only for the results presented and obtained through computer simulations, but also for its generality concerning to the kind of fuzzy inference system used. Therefore, this methodology is expandable either to the Mandani architecture or also to that suggested by Takagi-Sugeno. The validation of the presented methodology is accomplished through an estimation of time series. More specifically, the Mackey-Glass chaotic time series estimation is used for the validation of the proposed methodology.