The Risk Management of Minimum Return Guarantees

Contracts paying a guaranteed minimum rate of return and a fraction of a positive excess rate, which is specified relative to a benchmark portfolio, are closely related to unit-linked life-insurance products and can be considered as alternatives to direct investment in the underlying benchmark. They contain an embedded power option, and the key issue is the tractable and realistic hedging of this option, in order to rigorously justify valuation by arbitrage arguments and prevent the guarantees from becoming uncontrollable liabilities to the issuer. We show how to determine the contract parameters conservatively and implement robust risk-management strategies.

The Road to Negative Behavior: Discriminatory Intentions in the German Population

This study analyzes discriminatory intentions shared by members of the German majority against several outgroups in Germany. Patterns of discriminatory intentions against various minority groups were investigated for several indicators, including gender, age, and political orientation, by means of a representative survey (N = 1,778). The relationship between prejudices and discriminatory intentions against different target groups was also analyzed. Prejudice and discriminatory intentions show moderate but consistently positive correlations in relation to one and the same target group. Moreover, it was found that discriminatory intentions against one outgroup are related to hostile attitudes towards other outgroups, too. The results support the hypothesis of a syndrome of group-focused enmity.

Adolescents' value of children and their intentions to have children: A cross-cultural and multilevel analysis

This study contributes to research regarding the value of children (VOC) by comparing adolescents' VOC and their intentions to have children across 12 cultures and by exploring the relations between these constructs at the individual and cultural levels using multilevel modeling. A total of 3,348 adolescents from 12 cultures participated in this study. On average, adolescents reported that they intended to have about two children and also reported emotional VOC as being highly important. Adolescents from cultures with a low as compared to a high level of economic development reported a higher importance of the utilitarian-normative VOC. Results of the multilevel analyses showed that the reported emotional VOC was positively related to the number of children adolescents intended to have at the individual level, whereas the utilitarian-normative VOC was not related to adolescents' intention to have children. At the cultural level, the VOC dimensions were only partly related to adolescents' intention to have children. The results are discussed with regard to adolescents' future family orientation and in relation to the VOC approach.

Non-exponential return time distributions for vorticity extremes explained by fractional Poisson processes

Serial correlation of extreme midlatitude cyclones observed at the storm track exits is explained by deviations from a Poisson process. To model these deviations, we apply fractional Poisson processes (FPPs) to extreme midlatitude cyclones, which are defined by the 850 hPa relative vorticity of the ERA interim reanalysis during boreal winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons. Extremes are defined by a 99% quantile threshold in the grid-point time series. In general, FPPs are based on long-term memory and lead to non-exponential return time distributions. The return times are described by a Weibull distribution to approximate the Mittag–Leffler function in the FPPs. The Weibull shape parameter yields a dispersion parameter that agrees with results found for midlatitude cyclones. The memory of the FPP, which is determined by detrended fluctuation analysis, provides an independent estimate for the shape parameter. Thus, the analysis exhibits a concise framework of the deviation from Poisson statistics (by a dispersion parameter), non-exponential return times and memory (correlation) on the basis of a single parameter. The results have potential implications for the predictability of extreme cyclones.