Validation of the instability shoulder index score in a multicenter reliability study in 114 consecutive cases.

BACKGROUND: Anterior shoulder stabilization surgery with the arthroscopic Bankart procedure can have a high recurrence rate in certain patients. Identifying these patients to modify outcomes has become a focal point of research. PURPOSE: The Instability Shoulder Index Score (ISIS) was developed to predict the success of arthroscopic Bankart repair. Scores range from 0 to 10, with higher scores predicting a higher risk of recurrence after stabilization. The interobserver reliability of the score is not known. STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study (diagnosis); Level of evidence, 2. METHODS: This is a prospective multicenter (North America and Europe) study of patients suffering from shoulder instability and waiting for stabilization surgery. Five pairs of independent evaluators were asked to score patient instability severity with the ISIS. Patients also completed functional scores (Western Ontario Shoulder Instability Index [WOSI], Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand-short version [QuickDASH], and Walch-Duplay test). Data on age, sex, number of dislocations, and type of surgery were collected. The test-retest method and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC: >0.75 = good, >0.85 = very good, and >0.9 = excellent) were used for analysis. RESULTS: A total of 114 patients with anterior shoulder instability were included, of whom 89 (78%) were men. The mean age was 28 years. The ISIS was very reliable, with an ICC of 0.933. The mean number of dislocations per patient was higher in patients who had an ISIS of ≥6 (25 vs 14; P = .05). Patients who underwent more complex arthroscopic procedures such as Hill-Sachs remplissage or open Latarjet had higher preoperative ISIS outcomes, with a mean score of 4.8 versus 3.4, respectively (P = .002). There was no correlation between the ISIS and the quality-of-life questionnaires, with Pearson correlations all >0.05 (WOSI = 0.39; QuickDASH = 0.97; Walch-Duplay = 0.08). CONCLUSION: Our results show that the ISIS is reliable when used in a multicenter study with anterior traumatic instability populations. There was no correlation between the ISIS and the quality-of-life questionnaires, but surgical decisions reflected its increased use.

Morphological scoring of human pronuclear zygotes for prediction of pregnancy outcome.

BACKGROUND: As embryo selection is not allowed by law in Switzerland, we need a single early scoring system to identify zygotes with high implantation potential and to select zygotes for fresh transfer or cryopreservation. The underlying aim is to maximize the cumulated pregnancy rate while limiting the number of multiple pregnancies. METHODS: In all, 613 fresh and 617 frozen-thawed zygotes were scored for proximity, orientation and centring of the pronuclei, cytoplasmic halo, and number and polarization of the nucleolar precursor bodies. From these individual scores, a cumulated pronuclear score (CPNS) was calculated. Correlation between CPNS and implantation was examined and compared between fresh and frozen-thawed zygotes. The effect of freezing on CPNS was also investigated. RESULTS: CPNS was positively associated with embryo implantation in both fresh and frozen zygotes. With similar CPNS, frozen zygotes presented implantation rates as high as those of fresh zygotes. Nucleolar precursor bodies pattern and cytoplasmic halo appeared as the most important factors predictive of implantation for both types of zygotes, while pronuclei position was specifically relevant for frozen-thawed zygotes. Freezing induced an alteration of most zygote parameters, resulting in a significantly lower CPNS and a lower pregnancy rate. CONCLUSIONS: CPNS may be used as a single prognostic tool for implantation of both fresh and frozen-thawed zygotes. Lower CPNS values of frozen-thawed zygotes may also be indicative of freezing damage to zygotes. Successful implantation of frozen zygotes despite lower CPNS suggests that they may recover after thawing and in vitro culture.

Validity and reliability of the Spanish version of the DN4 (Douleur Neuropathique 4 questions) questionnaire for differential diagnosis of pain syndromes associated to a neuropathic or somatic component

BACKGROUND This study assesses the validity and reliability of the Spanish version of DN4 questionnaire as a tool for differential diagnosis of pain syndromes associated to a neuropathic (NP) or somatic component (non-neuropathic pain, NNP). METHODS A study was conducted consisting of two phases: cultural adaptation into the Spanish language by means of conceptual equivalence, including forward and backward translations in duplicate and cognitive debriefing, and testing of psychometric properties in patients with NP (peripheral, central and mixed) and NNP. The analysis of psychometric properties included reliability (internal consistency, inter-rater agreement and test-retest reliability) and validity (ROC curve analysis, agreement with the reference diagnosis and determination of sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values in different subsamples according to type of NP). RESULTS A sample of 164 subjects (99 women, 60.4%; age: 60.4 +/- 16.0 years), 94 (57.3%) with NP (36 with peripheral, 32 with central, and 26 with mixed pain) and 70 with NNP was enrolled. The questionnaire was reliable [Cronbach's alpha coefficient: 0.71, inter-rater agreement coefficient: 0.80 (0.71-0.89), and test-retest intra-class correlation coefficient: 0.95 (0.92-0.97)] and valid for a cut-off value > or = 4 points, which was the best value to discriminate between NP and NNP subjects. DISCUSSION This study, representing the first validation of the DN4 questionnaire into another language different than the original, not only supported its high discriminatory value for identification of neuropathic pain, but also provided supplemental psychometric validation (i.e. test-retest reliability, influence of educational level and pain intensity) and showed its validity in mixed pain syndromes.

A prediction rule to identify low-risk patients with pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: A simple prognostic model could help identify patients with pulmonary embolism who are at low risk of death and are candidates for outpatient treatment. METHODS: We randomly allocated 15,531 retrospectively identified inpatients who had a discharge diagnosis of pulmonary embolism from 186 Pennsylvania hospitals to derivation (67%) and internal validation (33%) samples. We derived our rule to predict 30-day mortality using classification tree analysis and patient data routinely available at initial examination as potential predictor variables. We used data from a European prospective study to externally validate the rule among 221 inpatients with pulmonary embolism. We determined mortality and nonfatal adverse medical outcomes across derivation and validation samples. RESULTS: Our final model consisted of 10 patient factors (age > or = 70 years; history of cancer, heart failure, chronic lung disease, chronic renal disease, and cerebrovascular disease; and clinical variables of pulse rate > or = 110 beats/min, systolic blood pressure < 100 mm Hg, altered mental status, and arterial oxygen saturation < 90%). Patients with none of these factors were defined as low risk. The 30-day mortality rates for low-risk patients were 0.6%, 1.5%, and 0% in the derivation, internal validation, and external validation samples, respectively. The rates of nonfatal adverse medical outcomes were less than 1% among low-risk patients across all study samples. CONCLUSIONS: This simple prediction rule accurately identifies patients with pulmonary embolism who are at low risk of short-term mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. Prospective validation of this rule is important before its implementation as a decision aid for outpatient treatment.

Improving prediction of recanalization in acute large-vessel occlusive stroke.

BACKGROUND: Recanalization in acute ischemic stroke with large-vessel occlusion is a potent indicator of good clinical outcome. OBJECTIVE: To identify easily available clinical and radiologic variables predicting recanalization at various occlusion sites. METHODS: All consecutive, acute stroke patients from the Acute STroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (2003-2011) who had a large-vessel occlusion on computed tomographic angiography (CTA) (< 12 h) were included. Recanalization status was assessed at 24 h (range: 12-48 h) with CTA, magnetic resonance angiography, or ultrasonography. Complete and partial recanalization (corresponding to the modified Treatment in Cerebral Ischemia scale 2-3) were grouped together. Patients were categorized according to occlusion site and treatment modality. RESULTS: Among 439 patients, 51% (224) showed complete or partial recanalization. In multivariate analysis, recanalization of any occlusion site was most strongly associated with endovascular treatment, including bridging therapy (odds ratio [OR] 7.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.2-23.2), and less so with intravenous thrombolysis (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.0-2.6) and recanalization treatments performed beyond guidelines (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.2-5.7). Clot location (large vs. intermediate) and tandem pathology (the combination of intracranial occlusion and symptomatic extracranial stenosis) were other variables discriminating between recanalizers and non-recanalizers. For patients with intracranial occlusions, the variables significantly associated with recanalization after 24 h were: baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.1), Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) on initial computed tomography (OR 1.2, 95% CI 1.1-1.3), and an altered level of consciousness (OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.1-0.5). CONCLUSIONS: Acute endovascular treatment is the single most important factor promoting recanalization in acute ischemic stroke. The presence of extracranial vessel stenosis or occlusion decreases recanalization rates. In patients with intracranial occlusions, higher NIHSS score and ASPECTS and normal vigilance facilitate recanalization. Clinical use of these predictors could influence recanalization strategies in individual patients.

Reliability and validity of physiological data obtained within a cycle-run transition test in age-group triathletes.

This study examined the validity and reliability of a sequential "Run-Bike-Run" test (RBR) in age-group triathletes. Eight Olympic distance (OD) specialists (age 30.0 ± 2.0 years, mass 75.6 ± 1.6 kg, run VO2max 63.8 ± 1.9 ml· kg(-1)· min(-1), cycle VO2peak 56.7 ± 5.1 ml· kg(-1)· min(-1)) performed four trials over 10 days. Trial 1 (TRVO2max) was an incremental treadmill running test. Trials 2 and 3 (RBR1 and RBR2) involved: 1) a 7-min run at 15 km· h(-1) (R1) plus a 1-min transition to 2) cycling to fatigue (2 W· kg(-1) body mass then 30 W each 3 min); 3) 10-min cycling at 3 W· kg(-1) (Bsubmax); another 1-min transition and 4) a second 7-min run at 15 km· h(-1) (R2). Trial 4 (TT) was a 30-min cycle - 20-min run time trial. No significant differences in absolute oxygen uptake (VO2), heart rate (HR), or blood lactate concentration ([BLA]) were evidenced between RBR1 and RBR2. For all measured physiological variables, the limits of agreement were similar, and the mean differences were physiologically unimportant, between trials. Low levels of test-retest error (i.e. ICC <0.8, CV<10%) were observed for most (logged) measurements. However [BLA] post R1 (ICC 0.87, CV 25.1%), [BLA] post Bsubmax (ICC 0.99, CV 16.31) and [BLA] post R2 (ICC 0.51, CV 22.9%) were least reliable. These error ranges may help coaches detect real changes in training status over time. Moreover, RBR test variables can be used to predict discipline specific and overall TT performance. Cycle VO2peak, cycle peak power output, and the change between R1 and R2 (deltaR1R2) in [BLA] were most highly related to overall TT distance (r = 0.89, p < 0. 01; r = 0.94, p < 0.02; r = 0.86, p < 0.05, respectively). The percentage of TR VO2max at 15 km· h(-1), and deltaR1R2 HR, were also related to run TT distance (r = -0.83 and 0.86, both p < 0.05).

Homology modeling and metabolism prediction of human carboxylesterase-2 using docking analyses by GriDock: a parallelized tool based on AutoDock 4.0.

Metabolic problems lead to numerous failures during clinical trials, and much effort is now devoted to developing in silico models predicting metabolic stability and metabolites. Such models are well known for cytochromes P450 and some transferases, whereas less has been done to predict the activity of human hydrolases. The present study was undertaken to develop a computational approach able to predict the hydrolysis of novel esters by human carboxylesterase hCES2. The study involved first a homology modeling of the hCES2 protein based on the model of hCES1 since the two proteins share a high degree of homology (congruent with 73%). A set of 40 known substrates of hCES2 was taken from the literature; the ligands were docked in both their neutral and ionized forms using GriDock, a parallel tool based on the AutoDock4.0 engine which can perform efficient and easy virtual screening analyses of large molecular databases exploiting multi-core architectures. Useful statistical models (e.g., r (2) = 0.91 for substrates in their unprotonated state) were calculated by correlating experimental pK(m) values with distance between the carbon atom of the substrate's ester group and the hydroxy function of Ser228. Additional parameters in the equations accounted for hydrophobic and electrostatic interactions between substrates and contributing residues. The negatively charged residues in the hCES2 cavity explained the preference of the enzyme for neutral substrates and, more generally, suggested that ligands which interact too strongly by ionic bonds (e.g., ACE inhibitors) cannot be good CES2 substrates because they are trapped in the cavity in unproductive modes and behave as inhibitors. The effects of protonation on substrate recognition and the contrasting behavior of substrates and products were finally investigated by MD simulations of some CES2 complexes.

Improved prediction of coronary heart disease with markers of atherosclerosis and of inflammation in older adults?

Background: Several markers of atherosclerosis and of inflammation have been shown to predict coronary heart disease (CHD) individually. However, the utility of markers of atherosclerosis and of inflammation on prediction of CHD over traditional risk factors has not been well established, especially in the elderly. Methods: We studied 2202 men and women, aged 70-79, without baseline cardiovascular disease over 6-year follow-up to assess the risk of incident CHD associated with baseline noninvasive measures of atherosclerosis (ankle-arm index [AAI], aortic pulse wave velocity [aPWV]) and inflammatory markers (interleukin-6 [IL-6], C-reactive protein [CRP], tumor necrosis factor-a [TNF-a]). CHD events were studied as either nonfatal myocardial infarction or coronary death ("hard" events), and "hard" events plus hospitalization for angina, or the need for coronary-revascularization procedures (total CHD events). Results: During the 6-year follow-up, 283 participants had CHD events (including 136 "hard" events). IL-6, TNF-a and AAI independently predicted CHD events above Framingham Risk Score (FRS) with hazard ratios [HR] for the highest as compared with the lowest quartile for IL-6 of 1.95 (95%CI: 1.38-2.75, p for trend <0.001), TNF-a of 1.45 (95%CI: 1.04-2.02, p for trend 0.03), of 1.66 (95%CI: 1.19-2.31) for AAI 0.9, as compared to AAI 1.01-1.30. CRP and aPWV were not independently associated with CHD events. Results were similar for "hard" CHD events. Addition of IL-6 and AAI to traditional cardiovascular risk factors yielded the greatest improvement in the prediction of CHD; C-index for "hard"/total CHD events increased from 0.62/0.62 for traditional risk factors to 0.64/0.64 for IL-6 addition, 0.65/0.63 for AAI, and 0.66/0.64 for IL-6 combined with AAI. Being in the highest quartile of IL-6 combined with an AAI 0.90 or >1.40 yielded an HR of 2.51 (1.50-4.19) and 4.55 (1.65-12.50) above FRS, respectively. With use of CHD risk categories, risk prediction at 5 years was more accurate in models that included IL-6, AAI or both, with 8.0, 8.3 and 12.1% correctly reclassified, respectively. Conclusions: Among older adults, markers of atherosclerosis and of inflammation, particularly IL-6 and AAI, are independently associated with CHD. However, these markers only modestly improve cardiovascular risk prediction beyond traditional risk factors.

Prediction of postpartum depression using multilayer perceptrons and pruning.

OBJECTIVE. The main goal of this paper is to obtain a classification model based on feed-forward multilayer perceptrons in order to improve postpartum depression prediction during the 32 weeks after childbirth with a high sensitivity and specificity and to develop a tool to be integrated in a decision support system for clinicians. MATERIALS AND METHODS. Multilayer perceptrons were trained on data from 1397 women who had just given birth, from seven Spanish general hospitals, including clinical, environmental and genetic variables. A prospective cohort study was made just after delivery, at 8 weeks and at 32 weeks after delivery. The models were evaluated with the geometric mean of accuracies using a hold-out strategy. RESULTS. Multilayer perceptrons showed good performance (high sensitivity and specificity) as predictive models for postpartum depression. CONCLUSIONS. The use of these models in a decision support system can be clinically evaluated in future work. The analysis of the models by pruning leads to a qualitative interpretation of the influence of each variable in the interest of clinical protocols.

Prospective, multicenter validation of prediction scores for major bleeding in elderly patients with venous thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND: The Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index (OBRI) and the Kuijer, RIETE and Kearon scores are clinical prognostic scores for bleeding in patients receiving oral anticoagulants for venous thromboembolism (VTE). We prospectively compared the performance of these scores in elderly patients with VTE. METHODS: In a prospective multicenter Swiss cohort study, we studied 663 patients aged ≥ 65 years with acute VTE. The outcome was a first major bleeding at 90 days. We classified patients into three categories of bleeding risk (low, intermediate and high) according to each score and dichotomized patients as high vs. low or intermediate risk. We calculated the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve, positive predictive values and likelihood ratios for each score. RESULTS: Overall, 28 out of 663 patients (4.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.8-6.0%) had a first major bleeding within 90 days. According to different scores, the rate of major bleeding varied from 1.9% to 2.1% in low-risk, from 4.2% to 5.0% in intermediate-risk and from 3.1% to 6.6% in high-risk patients. The discriminative power of the scores was poor to moderate, with areas under the ROC curve ranging from 0.49 to 0.60 (P = 0.21). The positive predictive values and positive likelihood ratios were low and varied from 3.1% to 6.6% and from 0.72 to 1.59, respectively. CONCLUSION: In elderly patients with VTE, existing bleeding risk scores do not have sufficient accuracy and power to discriminate between patients with VTE who are at a high risk of short-term major bleeding and those who are not.

Role of comorbidities in outcome prediction after status epilepticus.

Status epilepticus (SE) is associated with significant mortality and morbidity. A reliable prognosis may help better manage medical resources and treatment strategies. We examined the role of preexisting comorbidities on the outcome of patients with SE, an aspect that has received little attention to date. We prospectively studied incident SE episodes in 280 adults occurring over 55 months in our tertiary care hospital, excluding patients with postanoxic encephalopathy. Different models predicting mortality and return to clinical baseline at hospital discharge were compared, which included demographics, SE etiology, a validated clinical Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS), and comorbidities (assessed with the Charlson Comorbidity Index) as independent variables. The overall short-term mortality was 14%, and only half of patients returned to their clinical baseline. On bivariate analyses, age, STESS, potentially fatal etiologies, and number of preexisting comorbidities were all significant predictors of both mortality and return to clinical baseline. As compared with the simplest predictive model (including demographics and deadly etiology), adding SE severity and comorbidities resulted in an improved predictive performance (C statistics 0.84 vs. 0.77 for mortality, and 0.86 vs. 0.82. for return to clinical baseline); comorbidities, however, were not independently related to outcome. Considering comorbidities and clinical presentation, in addition to age and etiology, slightly improves the prediction of SE outcome with respect to both survival and functional status. This analysis also emphasizes the robust predictive role of etiology and age.

The use of clinical risk factors enhances the performance of BMD in the prediction of hip and osteoporotic fractures in men and women.

SUMMARY: BMD and clinical risk factors predict hip and other osteoporotic fractures. The combination of clinical risk factors and BMD provide higher specificity and sensitivity than either alone. INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESES: To develop a risk assessment tool based on clinical risk factors (CRFs) with and without BMD. METHODS: Nine population-based studies were studied in which BMD and CRFs were documented at baseline. Poisson regression models were developed for hip fracture and other osteoporotic fractures, with and without hip BMD. Fracture risk was expressed as gradient of risk (GR, risk ratio/SD change in risk score). RESULTS: CRFs alone predicted hip fracture with a GR of 2.1/SD at the age of 50 years and decreased with age. The use of BMD alone provided a higher GR (3.7/SD), and was improved further with the combined use of CRFs and BMD (4.2/SD). For other osteoporotic fractures, the GRs were lower than for hip fracture. The GR with CRFs alone was 1.4/SD at the age of 50 years, similar to that provided by BMD (GR = 1.4/SD) and was not markedly increased by the combination (GR = 1.4/SD). The performance characteristics of clinical risk factors with and without BMD were validated in eleven independent population-based cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The models developed provide the basis for the integrated use of validated clinical risk factors in men and women to aid in fracture risk prediction.

La cohorte OstéoLaus: évaluation des outils de routine clinique pour la prédiction de la fracture ostéoporotique [OsteoLaus: prediction of osteoporotic fractures by clinical risk factors and DXA, IVA and TBS].

OsteoLaus is a cohort of 1400 women 50 to 80 years living in Lausanne, Switzerland. Clinical risk factors for osteoporosis, bone ultrasound of the heel, lumbar spine and hip bone mineral density (BMD), assessment of vertebral fracture by DXA, and microarchitecture evaluation by TBS (Trabecular Bone Score) will be recorded. TBS is a new parameter obtained after a re-analysis of a DXA exam. TBS is correlated with parameters of microarchitecture. His reproducibility is good. TBS give an added diagnostic value to BMD, and predict osteoporotic fracture (partially) independently to BMD. The position of TBS in clinical routine in complement to BMD and clinical risk factors will be evaluated in the OsteoLaus cohort.

A new neuropsychological instrument measuring effects of age and drugs on fitness to drive: development, reliability, and validity of MedDrive

Background: Current guidelines underline the limitations of existing instruments to assess fitness to drive and the poor adaptability of batteries of neuropsychological tests in primary care settings. Aims: To provide a free, reliable, transparent computer based instrument capable of detecting effects of age or drugs on visual processing and cognitive functions. Methods: Relying on systematic reviews of neuropsychological tests and driving performances, we conceived four new computed tasks measuring: visual processing (Task1), movement attention shift (Task2), executive response, alerting and orientation gain (Task3), and spatial memory (Task4). We then planned five studies to test MedDrive's reliability and validity. Study-1 defined instructions and learning functions collecting data from 105 senior drivers attending an automobile club course. Study-2 assessed concurrent validity for detecting minor cognitive impairment (MCI) against useful field of view (UFOV) on 120 new senior drivers. Study-3 collected data from 200 healthy drivers aged 20-90 to model age related normal cognitive decline. Study-4 measured MedDrive's reliability having 21 healthy volunteers repeat tests five times. Study-5 tested MedDrive's responsiveness to alcohol in a randomised, double-blinded, placebo, crossover, dose-response validation trial including 20 young healthy volunteers. Results: Instructions were well understood and accepted by all senior drivers. Measures of visual processing (Task1) showed better performances than the UFOV in detecting MCI (ROC 0.770 vs. 0.620; p=0.048). MedDrive was capable of explaining 43.4% of changes occurring with natural cognitive decline. In young healthy drivers, learning effects became negligible from the third session onwards for all tasks except for dual tasking (ICC=0.769). All measures except alerting and orientation gain were affected by blood alcohol concentrations. Finally, MedDrive was able to explain 29.3% of potential causes of swerving on the driving simulator. Discussion and conclusions: MedDrive reveals improved performances compared to existing computed neuropsychological tasks. It shows promising results both for clinical and research purposes.