970 resultados para Reliability index variability
Resumo:
A multicentennial and absolutely-dated shell-based chronology for the marine environment of the North Icelandic Shelf has been constructed using annual growth increments in the shell of the long-lived bivalve clam Arctica islandica. The region from which the shells were collected is close to the North Atlantic Polar Front and is highly sensitive to the varying influences of Atlantic and Arctic water masses. A strong common environmental signal is apparent in the increment widths, and although the correlations between the growth increment indices and regional sea surface temperatures are significant at the 95% confidence level, they are low (r ~ 0.2), indicating that a more complex combination of environmental forcings is driving growth. Remarkable longevities of individual animals are apparent in the increment-width series used in the chronology, with several animals having lifetimes in excess of 300 years and one, at 507 years, being the longest-lived non-colonial animal so far reported whose age at death can be accurately determined. The sample depth is at least three shells after AD 1175, and the time series has been extended back to AD 649 with a sample depth of one or two by the addition of two further series, thus providing a 1357-year archive of dated shell material. The statistical and spectral characteristics of the chronology are investigated by using two different methods of removing the age-related trend in shell growth. Comparison with other proxy archives from the same region reveals several similarities in variability on multidecadal timescales, particularly during the period surrounding the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age.
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Many defining human characteristics including theory of mind, culture and language relate to our sociality, and facilitate the formation and maintenance of cooperative relationships. Therefore, deciphering the context in which our sociality evolved is invaluable in understanding what makes us unique as a species. Much work has emphasised group-level competition, such as warfare, in moulding human cooperation and sociality. However, competition and cooperation also occur within groups; and inter-individual differences in sociality have reported fitness implications in numerous non-human taxa. Here we investigate whether differential access to cooperation (relational wealth) is likely to lead to variation in fitness at the individual level among BaYaka hunter-gatherers. Using economic gift games we find that relational wealth: a) displays individual-level variation; b) provides advantages in buffering food risk, and is positively associated with body mass index (BMI) and female fertility; c) is partially heritable. These results highlight that individual-level processes may have been fundamental in the extension of human cooperation beyond small units of related individuals, and in shaping our sociality. Additionally, the findings offer insight in to trends related to human sociality found from research in other fields such as psychology and epidemiology.
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Abundant material of turtles from the early Oligocene site of Boutersem-TGV (Boutersem, Belgium), is presented here. No information on the turtles found there was so far available. All the turtle specimens presented here are attributable to a single freshwater taxon that is identified as a member of Geoemydidae, Cuvierichelys. It is the first representative of the ‘Palaeochelys s. l.–Mauremys’ group recognized in the Belgian Paleogene record. This material, which allows to know all the elements of both the carapace and the plastron of the taxon, cannot be attributed to the only species of the genus Cuvierichelys so far identified in the Oligocene, the Spanish form Cuvierichelys iberica. The taxon from Boutersem is recognized as Cuvierichelys parisiensis. Thus, both the paleobiogeographic and the biostratigraphic distributions of Cuvierichelys parisiensis are extended, its presence being confirmed for the first time outside the French Eocene record. The validity of some European forms is refuted, and several characters previously proposed as different between Cuvierichelys iberica and Cuvierichelys parisiensis are recognized as subjected to intraspecific variability.
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AIMS: Limited data are available concerning the evolution of the left atrial volume index (LAVI) in pre-heart failure (HF) patients. The aim of this study was to investigate clinical characteristics and serological biomarkers in a cohort with risk factors for HF and evidence of serial atrial dilatation.
METHODS AND RESULTS: This was a prospective substudy within the framework of the STOP-HF cohort (NCT00921960) involving 518 patients with risk factors for HF electively undergoing serial clinical, echocardiographic, and natriuretic peptide assessment. Mean follow-up time between assessments was 15 ± 6 months. 'Progressors' (n = 39) were defined as those with serial LAVI change ≥3.5 mL/m(2) (and baseline LAVI between 20 and 34 mL/m(2)). This cut-off was derived from a calculated reference change value above the biological, analytical, and observer variability of serial LAVI measurement. Multivariate analysis identified significant baseline clinical associates of LAVI progression as increased age, beta-blocker usage, and left ventricular mass index (all P < 0.05). Serological biomarkers were measured in a randomly selected subcohort of 30 'Progressors' matched to 30 'Non-progressors'. For 'Progressors', relative changes in matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP9), tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 1 (TIMP1), and the TIMP1/MMP9 ratio, markers of interstitial remodelling, tracked with changes in LAVI over time (all P < 0.05).
CONCLUSION: Accelerated LAVI increase was found to occur in up to 14% of all pre-HF patients undergoing serial echocardiograms over a relatively short follow-up period. In a randomly selected subcohort of 'Progressors', changes in LAVI were closely linked with alterations in MMP9, TIMP1, and the ratio of these enzymes, a potential aid in highlighting this at-risk group.
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The assessment of adolescent drinking behavior is a complex task, complicated by variability in drinking patterns, the transitory and developmental nature of the behavior and the reliance (for large scale studies) on self-report questionnaires. The Adolescent Alcohol Involvement Scale (Mayer & Filstead, 1979) is a 14-item screening tool designed to help to identify alcohol misusers or more problematic drinkers. The present study utilized a large sample (n = 4066) adolescents from Northern Ireland. Results of Confirmatory Factor Analyses and reliability estimates revealed that the 14-items share sufficient common variance that scores can be considered to be reliable and that the 14 items can be scored to provide a composite alcohol use score.
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This dissertation demonstrates an explanation of damage and reliability of critical components and structures within the second law of thermodynamics. The approach relies on the fundamentals of irreversible thermodynamics, specifically the concept of entropy generation due to materials degradation as an index of damage. All failure mechanisms that cause degradation, damage accumulation and ultimate failure share a common feature, namely energy dissipation. Energy dissipation, as a fundamental measure for irreversibility in a thermodynamic treatment of non-equilibrium processes, leads to and can be expressed in terms of entropy generation. The dissertation proposes a theory of damage by relating entropy generation to energy dissipation via generalized thermodynamic forces and thermodynamic fluxes that formally describes the resulting damage. Following the proposed theory of entropic damage, an approach to reliability and integrity characterization based on thermodynamic entropy is discussed. It is shown that the variability in the amount of the thermodynamic-based damage and uncertainties about the parameters of a distribution model describing the variability, leads to a more consistent and broader definition of the well know time-to-failure distribution in reliability engineering. As such it has been shown that the reliability function can be derived from the thermodynamic laws rather than estimated from the observed failure histories. Furthermore, using the superior advantages of the use of entropy generation and accumulation as a damage index in comparison to common observable markers of damage such as crack size, a method is proposed to explain the prognostics and health management (PHM) in terms of the entropic damage. The proposed entropic-based damage theory to reliability and integrity is then demonstrated through experimental validation. Using this theorem, the corrosion-fatigue entropy generation function is derived, evaluated and employed for structural integrity, reliability assessment and remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of Aluminum 7075-T651 specimens tested.
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Several studies have reported changes in spontaneous brain rhythms that could be used asclinical biomarkers or in the evaluation of neuropsychological and drug treatments in longitudinal studies using magnetoencephalography (MEG). There is an increasing necessity to use these measures in early diagnosis and pathology progression; however, there is a lack of studies addressing how reliable they are. Here, we provide the first test-retest reliability estimate of MEG power in resting-state at sensor and source space. In this study, we recorded 3 sessions of resting-state MEG activity from 24 healthy subjects with an interval of a week between each session. Power values were estimated at sensor and source space with beamforming for classical frequency bands: delta (2–4 Hz), theta (4–8 Hz), alpha (8–13 Hz), low beta (13–20 Hz), high beta (20–30 Hz), and gamma (30–45 Hz). Then, test-retest reliability was evaluated using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). We also evaluated the relation between source power and the within-subject variability. In general, ICC of theta, alpha, and low beta power was fairly high (ICC > 0.6) while in delta and gamma power was lower. In source space, fronto-posterior alpha, frontal beta, and medial temporal theta showed the most reliable profiles. Signal-to-noise ratio could be partially responsible for reliability as low signal intensity resulted inhigh within-subject variability, but also the inherent nature of some brain rhythms in resting-state might be driving these reliability patterns. In conclusion, our results described the reliability of MEG power estimates in each frequency band, which could be considered in disease characterization or clinical trials.
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The Mara River Basin (MRB) is endowed with pristine biodiversity, socio-cultural heritage and natural resources. The purpose of my study is to develop and apply an integrated water resource allocation framework for the MRB based on the hydrological processes, water demand and economic factors. The basin was partitioned into twelve sub-basins and the rainfall runoff processes was modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) after satisfactory Nash-Sutcliff efficiency of 0.68 for calibration and 0.43 for validation at Mara Mines station. The impact and uncertainty of climate change on the hydrology of the MRB was assessed using SWAT and three scenarios of statistically downscaled outputs from twenty Global Circulation Models. Results predicted the wet season getting more wet and the dry season getting drier, with a general increasing trend of annual rainfall through 2050. Three blocks of water demand (environmental, normal and flood) were estimated from consumptive water use by human, wildlife, livestock, tourism, irrigation and industry. Water demand projections suggest human consumption is expected to surpass irrigation as the highest water demand sector by 2030. Monthly volume of water was estimated in three blocks of current minimum reliability, reserve (>95%), normal (80–95%) and flood (40%) for more than 5 months in a year. The assessment of water price and marginal productivity showed that current water use hardly responds to a change in price or productivity of water. Finally, a water allocation model was developed and applied to investigate the optimum monthly allocation among sectors and sub-basins by maximizing the use value and hydrological reliability of water. Model results demonstrated that the status on reserve and normal volumes can be improved to ‘low’ or ‘moderate’ by updating the existing reliability to meet prevailing demand. Flow volumes and rates for four scenarios of reliability were presented. Results showed that the water allocation framework can be used as comprehensive tool in the management of MRB, and possibly be extended similar watersheds.
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This study aimed to provide height, body mass, BMI and waist circumference (WC) growth centile charts for school-children, aged 4–17 years, from central Peru, and to compare Peruvian data with North-American and Argentinean references. The sample consisted of 8753 children and adolescents (4130 boys and 4623 girls) aged 4 to 17 years, from four Peruvian cities: Barranco, La Merced, San Ramón and Junín. Height, body mass and WC were measured according to standardized techniques. Centile curves for height, body mass, BMI and WC were obtained separately for boys and girls using the LMS method. Student t-tests were used to compare mean values. Overall boys have higher median heights than girls, and the 50th percentile for body mass increases curvilinearly from 4 years of age onwards. In boys, the BMI and WC 50th percentiles increase linearly and in girls, the increase presents a curvilinear pattern. Peruvian children are shorter, lighter and have higher BMI than their counterparts in the U.S. and Argentina; in contrast, age and sex-specific WC values are lower. Height, body mass and WC of Peruvian children increased with age and variability was higher at older ages. The growth patterns for height, body mass, BMI and WC among Peruvian children were similar to those observed in North-American and Argentinean peers.
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The assessment of water quality has changed markedly worldwide over the last years, especially in Europe due to the implementation of the Water Framework Directive. Fish was considered a key-element in this context and several fish-based multi-metric indices have been proposed. In this study, we propose a multi-metric index, the Estuarine Fish Assessment Index (EFAI), developed for Portuguese estuaries, designed for the overall assessment of transitional waters, which could also be applied at the water body level within an estuary. The EFAI integrates seven metrics: species richness, percentage of marine migrants, number of species and abundance of estuarine resident species, number of species and abundance of piscivorous species, status of diadromous species, status of introduced species and status of disturbance sensitive species. Fish sampling surveys were conducted in 2006, 2009 and 2010, using beam trawl, in 13 estuarine systems along the Portuguese coast. Most of the metrics presented a high variability among the transitional systems surveyed. According to the EFAI values, Portuguese estuaries presented a "Good" water quality status (except the Douro in a particular year). The assessments in different years were generally concordant, with a few exceptions. The relationship between the EFAI and the Anthropogenic Pressure Index (API) was not significant, but a negative and significant correlation was registered between the EFAI and the expert judgement pressure index, at both estuary and water body level. The ordination analysis performed to evaluate similarities among North-East Atlantic Geographical Intercalibration Group (NEAGIG) fish-based indices put in evidence four main groups: the French index, since it is substantially different from all the other indices (uses only four metrics based on densities); indices from Ireland, United Kingdom and Spain (Asturias and Cantabria); the Dutch and German indices; and the indices of Belgium. Portugal and Spain (Basque country). The need for detailed studies, including comparative approaches, on several aspects of these assessment tools, especially in what regards their response to anthropogenic pressures was stressed. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
This study aimed to provide height, body mass, BMI and waist circumference (WC) growth centile charts for school-children, aged 4–17 years, from central Peru, and to compare Peruvian data with North-American and Argentinean references. The sample consisted of 8753 children and adolescents (4130 boys and 4623 girls) aged 4 to 17 years, from four Peruvian cities: Barranco, La Merced, San Ramón and Junín. Height, body mass and WC were measured according to standardized techniques. Centile curves for height, body mass, BMI and WC were obtained separately for boys and girls using the LMS method. Student t-tests were used to compare mean values. Overall boys have higher median heights than girls, and the 50th percentile for body mass increases curvilinearly from 4 years of age onwards. In boys, the BMI and WC 50th percentiles increase linearly and in girls, the increase presents a curvilinear pattern. Peruvian children are shorter, lighter and have higher BMI than their counterparts in the U.S. and Argentina; in contrast, age and sex-specific WC values are lower. Height, body mass and WC of Peruvian children increased with age and variability was higher at older ages. The growth patterns for height, body mass, BMI and WC among Peruvian children were similar to those observed in North-American and Argentinean peers.
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The International FItness Scale (IFIS) is a self-reported measure of physical fitness that could easily. This scale has been validated in children, adolescents, and young adults; however, it is unknown whether the IFIS represents a valid and reliable estimate of physical fitness in Latino-American youth population. In the present study we aimed to examine the validity and reliability of the IFIS on a population-based sample of schoolchildren in Bogota, Colombia. Participants were 1,875 Colombian youth (56.2% girls) aged 9 to 17.9 years old. We measured adiposity markers (body fat, waist-to-height ratio, skinfold thicknesses and BMI), blood pressure, lipids profile, fasting glucose, and physical fitness level (self reported and measured). Also, a validated cardiometabolic risk index was used. An age- and sex-matched sample of 229 Schoolchildren originally not included in the study sample fulfilled IFIS twice for reliability purposes. Our data suggest that both measured and self-reported overall fitness were associated inversely with adiposity indicators and a cardiometabolic risk score. Overall, schoolchildren who self-reported “good” and “very good” fitness had better measured fitness than those who reported “very poor” and “poor” fitness (all p<0.001). Test–retest reliability of IFIS items was also good, with an average weighted Kappa of 0.811. Therefore, our findings suggest that self-reported fitness, as assessed by IFIS, is a valid, reliable, and health-related measure, and it can be a good alternative for future use in large studies with Latin-schoolchildren from Colombia.
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Abstract Objective: Evidence shows an association between muscular strength (MS) and health among youth, however low muscular strength cut-points for the detection of high metabolic risk in Latin-American populations are scarce. The aim of this study was two-fold: to explore potential age- and sex-specific thresholds of MS, for optimal cardiometabolic risk categorization among Colombian children and adolescents; and to investigate if cardiometabolic risk differed by MS group by applying the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) cut point. Methods: This is a secondary analysis of a cross-sectional study (the FUPRECOL study), published elsewhere. The FUPRECOL study assessments were conducted during the 2014– 2015 school year. MS was estimated by a handle dynamometer on 1,950 children and adolescents from Colombia, using the MS relative to weight (handgrip strength/body mass). A metabolic risk score was computed from the following components: waist circumference, triglycerides, HDL-c, glucose, systolic and diastolic blood pressure. ROC analysis showed a significant discriminatory accuracy of MS in identifying the low/high metabolic risk in children and adolescents and both gender. Results: In children, handgrip strength/body mass level for a low metabolic risk were 0.359 and 0.376 in girls and boys, respectively. In adolescents, these points were 0.440 and 0.447 in girls and boys, respectively. Conclusion: In conclusion, the results suggest a hypothetical MS level relative to weight for having a low metabolic risk, which could be used to identify youths at risk.
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Little information is available on the degree of within-field variability of potential production of Tall wheatgrass (Thinopyrum ponticum) forage under unirrigated conditions. The aim of this study was to characterize the spatial variability of the accumulated biomass (AB) without nutritional limitations through vegetation indexes, and then use this information to determine potential management zones. A 27-×-27-m grid cell size was chosen and 84 biomass sampling areas (BSA), each 2 m(2) in size, were georeferenced. Nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers were applied after an initial cut at 3 cm height. At 500 °C day, the AB from each sampling area, was collected and evaluated. The spatial variability of AB was estimated more accurately using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), calculated from LANDSAT 8 images obtained on 24 November 2014 (NDVInov) and 10 December 2014 (NDVIdec) because the potential AB was highly associated with NDVInov and NDVIdec (r (2) = 0.85 and 0.83, respectively). These models between the potential AB data and NDVI were evaluated by root mean squared error (RMSE) and relative root mean squared error (RRMSE). This last coefficient was 12 and 15 % for NDVInov and NDVIdec, respectively. Potential AB and NDVI spatial correlation were quantified with semivariograms. The spatial dependence of AB was low. Six classes of NDVI were analyzed for comparison, and two management zones (MZ) were established with them. In order to evaluate if the NDVI method allows us to delimit MZ with different attainable yields, the AB estimated for these MZ were compared through an ANOVA test. The potential AB had significant differences among MZ. Based on these findings, it can be concluded that NDVI obtained from LANDSAT 8 images can be reliably used for creating MZ in soils under permanent pastures dominated by Tall wheatgrass.
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Estimation of pasture productivity is an important step for the farmer in terms of planning animal stocking, organizing animal lots, and determining supplementary feeding needs throughout the year. The main objective of this work was to evaluate technologies which have potential for monitoring aspects related to spatial and temporal variability of pasture green and dry matter yield (respectively, GM and DM, in kg/ha) and support to decision making for the farmer. Two types of sensors were evaluated: an active optical sensor(OptRx®, which measures the NDVI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and a capacitance probe (GrassMaster II which estimates plant mass). The results showed the potential of NDVI for monitoring the evolution of spatial and temporal patterns of vegetative growth of biodiverse pasture. Higher NDVI values were registered as pasture approached its greatest vegetative vigor, with a significant fall in the measured NDVI at the end of Spring, when the pasture began to dry due to the combination of higher temperatures and lower soil moisture content. This index was also effective for identifying different plant species (grasses/legumes) and variability in pasture yield. Furthermore, it was possible to develop calibration equations between the capacitance and the NDVI (R2 = 0.757; p < 0.01), between capacitance and GM (R2 = 0.799; p<0.01), between capacitance and DM (R2 = 0.630; p<0.01), between NDVI and GM (R2=0.745; p < 0.01), and between capacitance and DM (R2=0.524; p<0.01). Finally, a direct relationship was obtained between NDVI and pasture moisture content (PMC, in %) and between capacitance and PMC (respectively, R2 = 0.615; p<0.01 and R2=0.561; p <0.01) in Alentejo dryland farming systems.