The Health Effects of Climate Change: A Survey of Recent Quantitative Research

44 p.

A review of current biological and recent environmental research on Lake Baikal from a British perspective

In 1990, "BICER" or the Baikal International Centre for Ecological Research was created to foster collaborative research on Lake Baikal. The British effort in BICER was initiated and is administered by the Royal Society, London. Much of the on-going research effort is now focussed on environmental change, as there is increasing concern about recent changes in the lake's unique ecosystem that could be linked with the effects of water pollution from catchment effluents. Monitoring studies of the phytoplankton in Lake Baikal's southern basin indicate that several species have increased in abundance since the mid-70's. Diatoms in Lake Baikal sediments are also being studied.

Rapid changes in the vegetation of a shallow pond in Epping Forest, related to recent droughts

Over much of Britain, 1995 and 1996 have been perceived as drought years. To evaluate the impact that local climatic conditions are having upon successional changes in higher vegetation (macrophytes), Speakmans Pond in Epping Forest was surveyed and mapped in 1996. The results are related to previous vegetation surveys carried out in 1989 and 1991. In 1989 the dominant marginal vegetation was floating sweet-grass Glyceria fluitans, which also covered a major part of the main body of the pond. Other abundant species included soft rush Juncus effusus, reed mace Typha latifolia and yellow flag Iris pseudocorus. A small (central) area of open water contained bladderwort Utricularia vulgaris and white water-lily Nymphaea alba. A similar plant coverage was found in 1991, with a dominance of floating sweet-grass along the shallow eastern edge. A marked change in the pond was found during the 1996 survey of vegetation in July, when the pool was dry. The major plant cover now consisted of creeping bent Agrostis stolonifera, with isolated clumps of Yorkshire fog Holcus lanatus around the edges; both are terrestrial grasses found on land surrounding the pond. Rushes (Juncus) had increased their distribution round the margins of the pond, and the patch of yellow flag noted in 1989 and 1991 was not found in 1996. The deeper trenches were also dry, but a small patch of white water-lily remained adjacent to one of the trenches.

Recent research in the African Great Lakes: fisheries, biodiversity and cichlid evolution

The East African Great Lakes are now well known for (1) their fisheries, of vital importance for their rapidly rising riparian human populations, and (2) as biodiversity hotspots with spectacular endemic faunas, of which the flocks of cichlid fishes unique to each of the three largest lakes, Tanganyika, Malawi and Victoria, offer unique opportunities to investigate how new species evolve and coexist. Since the early 1990s research involving over a hundred scientists, financed by many international bodies, has produced numerous reports and publications in widely scattered journals. This article summarizes their main discoveries and examines the status of, and prospects for, the fisheries, as well as current ideas on how their rich endemic fish faunas have evolved. It first considers fisheries projects in each of the three lakes: the deep rift valley lakes Tanganyika and Malawi and the huge Victoria, all of which share their waters between several East African countries. Secondly it considers the biodiversity surveys of each lake, based on underwater (SCUBA) observations of fish ecology and behaviour which have revealed threats to their fish faunas, and considers what conservation measures are needed. Thirdly, using the lakes as laboratories, what have the international investigations (including DNA techniques and follow-up aquarium experiments) now revealed about the origins and relationships of their cichlid species flocks and mechanisms of evolution?

Source characteristics of recent and historic earthquakes in Central and Southern California: results from forward modeling

The long- and short-period body waves of a number of moderate earthquakes occurring in central and southern California recorded at regional (200-1400 km) and teleseismic (> 30°) distances are modeled to obtain the source parameters-focal mechanism, depth, seismic moment, and source time history. The modeling is done in the time domain using a forward modeling technique based on ray summation. A simple layer over a half space velocity model is used with additional layers being added if necessary-for example, in a basin with a low velocity lid.

The earthquakes studied fall into two geographic regions: 1) the western Transverse Ranges, and 2) the western Imperial Valley. Earthquakes in the western Transverse Ranges include the 1987 Whittier Narrows earthquake, several offshore earthquakes that occurred between 1969 and 1981, and aftershocks to the 1983 Coalinga earthquake (these actually occurred north of the Transverse Ranges but share many characteristics with those that occurred there). These earthquakes are predominantly thrust faulting events with the average strike being east-west, but with many variations. Of the six earthquakes which had sufficient short-period data to accurately determine the source time history, five were complex events. That is, they could not be modeled as a simple point source, but consisted of two or more subevents. The subevents of the Whittier Narrows earthquake had different focal mechanisms. In the other cases, the subevents appear to be the same, but small variations could not be ruled out.

The recent Imperial Valley earthquakes modeled include the two 1987 Superstition Hills earthquakes and the 1969 Coyote Mountain earthquake. All are strike-slip events, and the second 1987 earthquake is a complex event With non-identical subevents.

In all the earthquakes studied, and particularly the thrust events, constraining the source parameters required modeling several phases and distance ranges. Teleseismic P waves could provide only approximate solutions. P_(nl) waves were probably the most useful phase in determining the focal mechanism, with additional constraints supplied by the SH waves when available. Contamination of the SH waves by shear-coupled PL waves was a frequent problem. Short-period data were needed to obtain the source time function.

In addition to the earthquakes mentioned above, several historic earthquakes were also studied. Earthquakes that occurred before the existence of dense local and worldwide networks are difficult to model due to the sparse data set. It has been noticed that earthquakes that occur near each other often produce similar waveforms implying similar source parameters. By comparing recent well studied earthquakes to historic earthquakes in the same region, better constraints can be placed on the source parameters of the historic events.

The Lompoc earthquake (M=7) of 1927 is the largest offshore earthquake to occur in California this century. By direct comparison of waveforms and amplitudes with the Coalinga and Santa Lucia Banks earthquakes, the focal mechanism (thrust faulting on a northwest striking fault) and long-period seismic moment (10^(26) dyne cm) can be obtained. The S-P travel times are consistent with an offshore location, rather than one in the Hosgri fault zone.

Historic earthquakes in the western Imperial Valley were also studied. These events include the 1942 and 1954 earthquakes. The earthquakes were relocated by comparing S-P and R-S times to recent earthquakes. It was found that only minor changes in the epicenters were required but that the Coyote Mountain earthquake may have been more severely mislocated. The waveforms as expected indicated that all the events were strike-slip. Moment estimates were obtained by comparing the amplitudes of recent and historic events at stations which recorded both. The 1942 event was smaller than the 1968 Borrego Mountain earthquake although some previous studies suggested the reverse. The 1954 and 1937 earthquakes had moments close to the expected value. An aftershock of the 1942 earthquake appears to be larger than previously thought.

Recent investigations on zooplankton in the Limnological Institute of the University of Freiburg, in Falkau (Germany). [Translation from: Acta cient.Venezolana 18, 94-97, 1967. ]

Histochemical experiments are conducted in order to study the interrenal cells of European brook lamprey (Lampetra planeri).

Cultural methods of detection for microorganisms: recent advances and successes

Most microbiological methods require culture to allow organisms to recover or to selectively increase, and target organisms are identified by growth on specific agar media. Many cultural methods take several days to complete and even then the results require confirmation. Alternative techniques include the use of chromogenic and fluorogenic substances to identify bacteria as they are growing, selective capture using antibodies after short periods of growth, molecular techniques, and direct staining with or without flow cytometry for enumeration and identification. Future microbiologists may not use culture but depend on the use of specific probes and sophisticated detection systems.

Recent progress in the identification and determination of freshwater phytoplankton in the natural environment

The biomass of the phytoplankton and its composition is one of the most important factors in water quality control. Determination of the phytoplankton assemblage is usually done by microscopic analysis (Utermöhl's method). Quantitative estimations of the biovolume, by cell counting and cell size measurements, are time-consuming and normally are not done in routine water quality control. Several alternatives have been tried: computer-based image analysis, spectral fluorescence signatures, flow cytometry and pigment fingerprinting aided by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The latter method is based on the fact that each major algal group of taxa contains a specific carotenoid which can be used for identification and relative quantification of the taxa in the total assemblage. This article gives a brief comparative introduction to the different techniques available and presents some recent results obtained by HPLC-based pigment fingerprinting, applied to three lakes of different trophic status. The results show that this technique yields reliable results from different lake types and is a powerful tool for studying the distribution pattern of the phytoplankton community in relation to water depth. However, some restrictions should be taken into account for the interpretation of routine data.