Self-selection and risk selection on the Swiss health insurance market

Abstract This thesis presents three empirical studies in the field of health insurance in Switzerland. First we investigate the link between health insurance coverage and health care expenditures. We use claims data for over 60 000 adult individuals covered by a major Swiss Health Insurance Fund, followed for four years; the data show a strong positive correlation between coverage and expenditures. Two methods are developed and estimated in order to separate selection effects (due to individual choice of coverage) and incentive effects ("ex post moral hazard"). The first method uses the comparison between inpatient and outpatient expenditures to identify both effects and we conclude that both selection and incentive effects are significantly present in our data. The second method is based on a structural model of joint demand of health care and health insurance and makes the most of the change in the marginal cost of health care to identify selection and incentive effects. We conclude that the correlation between insurance coverage and health care expenditures may be decomposed into the two effects: 75% may be attributed to selection, and 25 % to incentive effects. Moreover, we estimate that a decrease in the coinsurance rate from 100% to 10% increases the marginal demand for health care by about 90% and from 100% to 0% by about 150%. Secondly, having shown that selection and incentive effects exist in the Swiss health insurance market, we present the consequence of this result in the context of risk adjustment. We show that if individuals choose their insurance coverage in function of their health status (selection effect), the optimal compensations should be function of the se- lection and incentive effects. Therefore, a risk adjustment mechanism which ignores these effects, as it is the case presently in Switzerland, will miss his main goal to eliminate incentives for sickness funds to select risks. Using a simplified model, we show that the optimal compensations have to take into account the distribution of risks through the insurance plans in case of self-selection in order to avoid incentives to select risks.Then, we apply our propositions to Swiss data and propose a simple econometric procedure to control for self-selection in the estimation of the risk adjustment formula in order to compute the optimal compensations.

Bioinformatic study of selection in animal genomes

Les gènes orthologues divergent sur plusieurs aspects durant l'évolution. Après une revue de la littérature cherchant à montrer de la divergence entre les orthologues de l'humain et de la souris, j'ai souligné les différentes causes de cette divergence. En comparant les gènes qui divergent en fonction, je n'ai pas trouvé de lien avec la divergence des séquences, pour cette raison je me suis penché sur l'étude de l'expression. Notamment, j'ai étudié le niveau, la spécificité ainsi que la présence/absence d'expression des orthologues humain-souris liés aux maladies Mendéliennes. Malgré les similarités trouvées entre l'humain et la souris, j'ai détecté une différence d'expression spécifique à une des deux espèces liée a un phénotype précis (gène essentiel/non-essentiel). Cela m'a permis de conclure que la différence sur le plan phénotypique entre l'humain et la souris est mieux expliquée par les patrons d'expression plutôt que le niveau d'expression ou la sélection. J'ai été également intéressé par l'évolution des séquences d'ADN codantes pour des protéines, en particulier sur le rôle de la sélection. J'ai commencé par une étude sur la fiabilité de détection de la sélection positive en comparant des séquences divergentes. J'ai trouvé, en utilisant le model de branche-site que la sélection peut être détectée sur des séquences qui ont divergé il y a plus de 500 millions d'années. J'ai analysé le biais de GC entres les séquences sans trouver une influence sur l'estimation de la sélection positive. Finalement, Je crois que ce travail est une première étape dans l'établissement d'un lien entre la sélection et les patrons d'expression des gènes chez les vertébrés.

DEA does not like positive discrimination : a comparison of alternative models based on empirical data

Due to the existence of free software and pedagogical guides, the use of data envelopment analysis (DEA) has been further democratized in recent years. Nowadays, it is quite usual for practitioners and decision makers with no or little knowledge in operational research to run themselves their own efficiency analysis. Within DEA, several alternative models allow for an environment adjustment. Five alternative models, each of them easily accessible to and achievable by practitioners and decision makers, are performed using the empirical case of the 90 primary schools of the State of Geneva, Switzerland. As the State of Geneva practices an upstream positive discrimination policy towards schools, this empirical case is particularly appropriate for an environment adjustment. The alternative of the majority of DEA models deliver divergent results. It is a matter of concern for applied researchers and a matter of confusion for practitioners and decision makers. From a political standpoint, these diverging results could lead to potentially opposite decisions. Grâce à l'existence de logiciels en libre accès et de guides pédagogiques, la méthode data envelopment analysis (DEA) s'est démocratisée ces dernières années. Aujourd'hui, il n'est pas rare que les décideurs avec peu ou pas de connaissances en recherche opérationnelle réalisent eux-mêmes leur propre analyse d'efficience. A l'intérieur de la méthode DEA, plusieurs modèles permettent de tenir compte des conditions plus ou moins favorables de l'environnement. Cinq de ces modèles, facilement accessibles et applicables par les décideurs, sont utilisés pour mesurer l'efficience des 90 écoles primaires du canton de Genève, Suisse. Le canton de Genève pratiquant une politique de discrimination positive envers les écoles défavorisées, ce cas pratique est particulièrement adapté pour un ajustement à l'environnement. La majorité des modèles DEA génèrent des résultats divergents. Ce constat est préoccupant pour les chercheurs appliqués et perturbant pour les décideurs. D'un point de vue politique, ces résultats divergents conduisent à des prises de décision différentes selon le modèle sur lequel elles sont fondées.

Automatic selection of tidal volume, respiratory frequency and minute ventilation in intubated ICU patients as start up procedure for closed-loop controlled ventilation.

OBJECTIVE: Before a patient can be connected to a mechanical ventilator, the controls of the apparatus need to be set up appropriately. Today, this is done by the intensive care professional. With the advent of closed loop controlled mechanical ventilation, methods will be needed to select appropriate start up settings automatically. The objective of our study was to test such a computerized method which could eventually be used as a start-up procedure (first 5-10 minutes of ventilation) for closed-loop controlled ventilation. DESIGN: Prospective Study. SETTINGS: ICU's in two adult and one children's hospital. PATIENTS: 25 critically ill adult patients (age > or = 15 y) and 17 critically ill children selected at random were studied. INTERVENTIONS: To stimulate 'initial connection', the patients were disconnected from their ventilator and transiently connected to a modified Hamilton AMADEUS ventilator for maximally one minute. During that time they were ventilated with a fixed and standardized breath pattern (Test Breaths) based on pressure controlled synchronized intermittent mandatory ventilation (PCSIMV). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Measurements of airway flow, airway pressure and instantaneous CO2 concentration using a mainstream CO2 analyzer were made at the mouth during application of the Test-Breaths. Test-Breaths were analyzed in terms of tidal volume, expiratory time constant and series dead space. Using this data an initial ventilation pattern consisting of respiratory frequency and tidal volume was calculated. This ventilation pattern was compared to the one measured prior to the onset of the study using a two-tailed paired t-test. Additionally, it was compared to a conventional method for setting up ventilators. The computer-proposed ventilation pattern did not differ significantly from the actual pattern (p > 0.05), while the conventional method did. However the scatter was large and in 6 cases deviations in the minute ventilation of more than 50% were observed. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis of standardized Test Breaths allows automatic determination of an initial ventilation pattern for intubated ICU patients. While this pattern does not seem to be superior to the one chosen by the conventional method, it is derived fully automatically and without need for manual patient data entry such as weight or height. This makes the method potentially useful as a start up procedure for closed-loop controlled ventilation.

Autoreactive T cells bypass negative selection and respond to self-antigen stimulation during infection.

Central and peripheral tolerance prevent autoimmunity by deleting the most aggressive CD8(+) T cells but they spare cells that react weakly to tissue-restricted antigen (TRA). To reveal the functional characteristics of these spared cells, we generated a transgenic mouse expressing the TCR of a TRA-specific T cell that had escaped negative selection. Interestingly, the isolated TCR matches the affinity/avidity threshold for negatively selecting T cells, and when developing transgenic cells are exposed to their TRA in the thymus, only a fraction of them are eliminated but significant numbers enter the periphery. In contrast to high avidity cells, low avidity T cells persist in the antigen-positive periphery with no signs of anergy, unresponsiveness, or prior activation. Upon activation during an infection they cause autoimmunity and form memory cells. Unexpectedly, peptide ligands that are weaker in stimulating the transgenic T cells than the thymic threshold ligand also induce profound activation in the periphery. Thus, the peripheral T cell activation threshold during an infection is below that of negative selection for TRA. These results demonstrate the existence of a level of self-reactivity to TRA to which the thymus confers no protection and illustrate that organ damage can occur without genetic predisposition to autoimmunity.

"A renewed sense of purpose": Mothers' and fathers' experience of having a child following a recent stillbirth.

Background Most research has focused on mothers¿ experiences of perinatal loss itself or on the subsequent pregnancy, whereas little attention has been paid to both parents¿ experiences of having a child following late perinatal loss and the experience of parenting this child. The current study therefore explored mothers¿ and fathers' experiences of becoming a parent to a child born after a recent stillbirth, covering the period of the second pregnancy and up to two years after the birth of the next baby.MethodIn depth interviews were conducted with 7 couples (14 participants). Couples were eligible if they previously had a stillbirth (after 24 weeks of gestation) and subsequently had another child (their first live baby) who was now under the age of 2 years. Couples who had more than one child after experiencing a stillbirth and those who were not fluent in English were excluded. Qualitative analysis of the interview data was conducted using Interpretive Phenomenological Analysis.ResultsFive superordinate themes emerged from the data: Living with uncertainty; Coping with uncertainty; Relationship with the next child; The continuing grief process; Identity as a parent. Overall, fathers' experiences were similar to those of mothers', including high levels of anxiety and guilt during the subsequent pregnancy and after the child was born. Coping strategies to address these were identified. Differences between mothers and fathers regarding the grief process during the subsequent pregnancy and after their second child was born were identified. Despite difficulties with bonding during pregnancy and at the time when the baby was born, parents' perceptions of their relationship with their subsequent child were positive.ConclusionsFindings highlight the importance of tailoring support systems not only according to mothers' but also to fathers' needs. Parents¿, and particularly fathers', reported lack of opportunities for grieving as well as the high level of anxiety of both parents about their baby's wellbeing during pregnancy and after birth implies a need for structured support. Difficulties experienced in bonding with the subsequent child during pregnancy and once the child is born need to be normalised.

Environmental pollution promotes selection of microbial degradation pathways

Astonishing as it may seem, one organism's waste is often ideal food for another. Many waste products generated by human activities are routinely degraded by microorganisms under controlled conditions during waste-water treatment. Toxic pollutants resulting from inadvertent releases, such as oil spills, are also consumed by bacteria, the simplest organisms on Earth. Biodegradation of toxic or particularly persistent compounds, however, remains problematic. What has escaped the attention of many is that bacteria exposed to pollutants can adapt to them by mutating or acquiring degradative genes. These bacteria can proliferate in the environment as a result of the selection pressures created by pollutants. The positive outcome of selection pressure is that harmful compounds may eventually be broken down completely through biodegradation. The downside is that biodegradation may require extremely long periods of time. Although the adaptation process has been shown to be reproducible, it remains very difficult to predict.

Group selection and kin selection: two concepts but one process.

In a recent paper, Traulsen and Nowak use a multilevel selection model to show that cooperation can be favored by group selection in finite populations [Traulsen A, Nowak M (2006) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103:10952-10955]. The authors challenge the view that kin selection may be an appropriate interpretation of their results and state that group selection is a distinctive process "that permeates evolutionary processes from the emergence of the first cells to eusociality and the economics of nations." In this paper, we start by addressing Traulsen and Nowak's challenge and demonstrate that all their results can be obtained by an application of kin selection theory. We then extend Traulsen and Nowak's model to life history conditions that have been previously studied. This allows us to highlight the differences and similarities between Traulsen and Nowak's model and typical kin selection models and also to broaden the scope of their results. Our retrospective analyses of Traulsen and Nowak's model illustrate that it is possible to convert group selection models to kin selection models without disturbing the mathematics describing the net effect of selection on cooperation.

Fixed-dose combinations as initial therapy for hypertension : a review of approved agents and a guide to patient selection.

Recent guidelines recommend initiation of antihypertensive therapy with fixed-dose combinations in high-risk patients because such patients usually need two or more blood pressure (BP)-lowering agents in order to normalize their BP. Agents that block the renin-angiotensin system (ACE inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor antagonists [angiotensin receptor blockers; ARBs]) are preferred for the management of hypertension in most patients exhibiting subclinical target organ damage, or established cardiovascular or renal diseases. Unless contraindicated they should be one of the components of fixed-dose combinations, whereas the other component may be either a calcium channel antagonist or a thiazide diuretic. Fixed-dose combinations containing an ACE inhibitor or ARB plus a calcium channel antagonist appear particularly effective in preventing complications of coronary heart disease.

Recent advances in remote sensing image processing

Remote sensing image processing is nowadays a mature research area. The techniques developed in the field allow many real-life applications with great societal value. For instance, urban monitoring, fire detection or flood prediction can have a great impact on economical and environmental issues. To attain such objectives, the remote sensing community has turned into a multidisciplinary field of science that embraces physics, signal theory, computer science, electronics, and communications. From a machine learning and signal/image processing point of view, all the applications are tackled under specific formalisms, such as classification and clustering, regression and function approximation, image coding, restoration and enhancement, source unmixing, data fusion or feature selection and extraction. This paper serves as a survey of methods and applications, and reviews the last methodological advances in remote sensing image processing.

K-r/K-c but not d(N)/d(S) correlates positively with body mass in birds, raising implications for inferring lineage-specific selection

Background: The ratio of the rates of non-synonymous and synonymous substitution (d(N)/d(S)) is commonly used to estimate selection in coding sequences. It is often suggested that, all else being equal, d(N)/d(S) should be lower in populations with large effective size (Ne) due to increased efficacy of purifying selection. As N-e is difficult to measure directly, life history traits such as body mass, which is typically negatively associated with population size, have commonly been used as proxies in empirical tests of this hypothesis. However, evidence of whether the expected positive correlation between body mass and d(N)/d(S) is consistently observed is conflicting. Results: Employing whole genome sequence data from 48 avian species, we assess the relationship between rates of molecular evolution and life history in birds. We find a negative correlation between dN/dS and body mass, contrary to nearly neutral expectation. This raises the question whether the correlation might be a method artefact. We therefore in turn consider non-stationary base composition, divergence time and saturation as possible explanations, but find no clear patterns. However, in striking contrast to d(N)/d(S), the ratio of radical to conservative amino acid substitutions (K-r/K-c) correlates positively with body mass. Conclusions: Our results in principle accord with the notion that non-synonymous substitutions causing radical amino acid changes are more efficiently removed by selection in large populations, consistent with nearly neutral theory. These findings have implications for the use of d(N)/d(S) and suggest that caution is warranted when drawing conclusions about lineage-specific modes of protein evolution using this metric.

Valproate treatment of human cord blood CD4-positive effector T cells confers on them the molecular profile (microRNA signature and FOXP3 expression) of natural regulatory CD4-positive cells through inhibition of histone deacetylase.

Regulatory T cells (Tregs) play a key role in immune system homeostasis and tolerance to antigens, thereby preventing autoimmunity, and may be partly responsible for the lack of an appropriate immune response against tumor cells. Although not sufficient, a high expression of forkhead box P3 (FOXP3) is necessary for their suppressive function. Recent reports have shown that histones deacetylase inhibitors increased FOXP3 expression in T cells. We therefore decided to investigate in non-Tregs CD4-positive cells, the mechanisms by which an aspecific opening of the chromatin could lead to an increased FOXP3 expression. We focused on binding of potentially activating transcription factors to the promoter region of FOXP3 and on modifications in the five miRs constituting the Tregs signature. Valproate treatment induced binding of Ets-1 and Ets-2 to the FOXP3 promoter and acted positively on its expression, by increasing the acetylation of histone H4 lysines. Valproate treatment also induced the acquisition of the miRs Tregs signature. To elucidate whether the changes in the miRs expression could be due to the increased FOXP3 expression, we transduced these non-Tregs with a FOXP3 lentiviral expression vector, and found no changes in miRs expression. Therefore, the modification in their miRs expression profile is not due to an increased expression of FOXP3 but directly results from histones deacetylase inhibition. Rather, the increased FOXP3 expression results from the additive effects of Ets factors binding and the change in expression level of miR-21 and miR-31. We conclude that valproate treatment of human non-Tregs confers on them a molecular profile similar to that of their regulatory counterpart.

Traducción comentada de «Management of the Clinically Positive Axilla» y «Management of the Internal Mammary Lymph Nodes», Essentials of Breast Surgery

La transmisión de conocimiento científico constituye una de las necesidades de traducción más importantes; es preciso realizar un estudio sobre la traducción del inglés médico. Este trabajo presenta una traducción inédita de fragmentos de Essentials of Breast Surgery y un análisis de esta jerga mediante un glosario y problemas de traducción.

In vitro negative selection of viral superantigen-reactive thymocytes by thymic dendritic cells.

Intrathymic expression of endogenous mouse mammary tumor virus (MMTV)-encoded superantigens (SAg) induces the clonal deletion of T cells bearing SAg-reactive T-cell receptor (TCR) Vbeta elements. However, the identity of the thymic antigen-presenting cells (APC) involved in the induction of SAg tolerance remains to be defined. We have analyzed the potential of dendritic cells (DC) to mediate the clonal deletion of Mtv-7-reactive TCR alphabeta P14 transgenic thymocytes in an in vitro assay. Our results show that both thymic and splenic DC induced the deletion of TCR transgenic double positive (DP) thymocytes. DC appear to be more efficient than splenic B cells as negatively selecting APC in this experimental system. Interestingly, thymic and splenic DC display a differential ability to induce CD4+ SP thymocyte proliferation. These observations suggest that thymic DC may have an important role in the induction of SAg tolerance in vivo.

Selection of shrimp breeders free of white spot syndrome and infectious hypodermal and hematopoietic necrosis

The objective of this work was to select surviving breeders of Litopenaeus vannamei from white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) outbreak, adapted to local climatic conditions and negatively diagnosed for WSSV and infectious hypodermal and hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHHNV), and to evaluate if this strategy is a viable alternative for production in Santa Catarina, Brazil. A total of 800 males and 800 females were phenotypically selected in a farm pond. Nested-PCR analyses of 487 sexually mature females and 231 sexually mature males showed that 63% of the females and 55% of the males were infected with IHHNV. Animals free of IHHNV were tested for WSSV, and those considered double negative were used for breeding. The post-larvae produced were stocked in nine nursery tanks for analysis. From the 45 samples, with 50 post-larvae each, only two were positive for IHHNV and none for WSSV. Batches of larvae diagnosed free of virus by nested-PCR were sent to six farms. A comparative analysis was carried out in growth ponds, between local post-larvae and post-larvae from Northeast Brazil. Crabs (Chasmagnathus granulata), blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus), and sea hares (Aplysia brasiliana), which are possible vectors of these viruses, were also evaluated. The mean survival was 55% for local post-larvae against 23.4% for post-larvae from the Northeast. Sea hares showed prevalence of 50% and crabs of 67% of WSSV.