On Selection of Features for Regional Hydrologic Studies

Feature selection is an important first step in regional hydrologic studies (RHYS). Over the past few decades, advances in data collection facilities have resulted in development of data archives on a variety of hydro-meteorological variables that may be used as features in RHYS. Currently there are no established procedures for selecting features from such archives. Therefore, hydrologists often use subjective methods to arrive at a set of features. This may lead to misleading results. To alleviate this problem, a probabilistic clustering method for regionalization is presented to determine appropriate features from the available dataset. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated by application to regionalization of watersheds in conterminous United States for low flow frequency analysis. Plausible homogeneous regions that are formed by using the proposed clustering method are compared with those from conventional methods of regionalization using L-moment based homogeneity tests. Results show that the proposed methodology is promising for RHYS.

Geographical Information System Approach for Regional Biogas Potential Assessment

The economic prosperity and quality of life in a region are closely linked to the level of its per capita energy consumption. In India more than 70% of the total population inhabits rural areas and 85-90% of energy requirement is being met by bioresources. With dwindling resources, attention of planners is diverted to viable energy alternatives to meet the rural energy demand. Biogas as fuel is one such alternative, which can be obtained by anaerobic digestion of animal residues and domestic and farm wastes, abundantly available in the countryside. Study presents the techniques to assess biogas potential spatially using GIS in Kolar district, Karnataka State, India. This would help decision makers in selecting villages for implementing biogas programmes based on resource availability. Analyses reveal that the domestic energy requirement of more than 60% population can be met by biogas option. This is based on the estimation of the per capita requirement of gas for domestic purposes and availability of livestock residues.

Regional Flood Frequency Analysis using Two-level Clustering Approach

Clustering techniques are used in regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) to partition watersheds into natural groups or regions with similar hydrologic responses. The linear Kohonen's self‐organizing feature map (SOFM) has been applied as a clustering technique for RFFA in several recent studies. However, it is seldom possible to interpret clusters from the output of an SOFM, irrespective of its size and dimensionality. In this study, we demonstrate that SOFMs may, however, serve as a useful precursor to clustering algorithms. We present a two‐level. SOFM‐based clustering approach to form regions for FFA. In the first level, the SOFM is used to form a two‐dimensional feature map. In the second level, the output nodes of SOFM are clustered using Fuzzy c‐means algorithm to form regions. The optimal number of regions is based on fuzzy cluster validation measures. Effectiveness of the proposed approach in forming homogeneous regions for FFA is illustrated through application to data from watersheds in Indiana, USA. Results show that the performance of the proposed approach to form regions is better than that based on classical SOFM.

Decision support system for regional electricity planning

Electricity appears to be the energy carrier of choice for modern economics since growth in electricity has outpaced growth in the demand for fuels. A decision maker (DM) for accurate and efficient decisions in electricity distribution requires the sector wise and location wise electricity consumption information to predict the requirement of electricity. In this regard, an interactive computer-based Decision Support System (DSS) has been developed to compile, analyse and present the data at disaggregated levels for regional energy planning. This helps in providing the precise information needed to make timely decisions related to transmission and distribution planning leading to increased efficiency and productivity. This paper discusses the design and implementation of a DSS, which facilitates to analyse the consumption of electricity at various hierarchical levels (division, taluk, sub division, feeder) for selected periods. This DSS is validated with the data of transmission and distribution systems of Kolar district in Karnataka State, India.

Impacts of climate change on regional water resources

Water is the most important medium through which climate change influences human life. Rising temperatures together with regional changes in precipitation patterns are some of the impacts of climate change that have implications on water availability, frequency and intensity of floods and droughts, soil moisture, water quality, water supply and water demands for irrigation and hydropower generation. In this article we provide an introduction to the emerging field of hydrologic impacts of climate change with a focus on water availability, water quality and irrigation demands. Climate change estimates on regional or local spatial scales are burdened with a considerable amount of uncertainty, stemming from various sources such as climate models, downscaling and hydrological models used in the impact assessments and uncertainty in the downscaling relationships. The present article summarizes the recent advances on uncertainty modeling and regional impacts of climate change for the Mahanadi and Tunga-Bhadra Rivers in India.

Regional impacts of climate change on irrigation water demands

This paper presents an approach to model the expected impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand in a reservoir command area. A statistical downscaling model and an evapotranspiration model are used with a general circulation model (GCM) output to predict the anticipated change in the monthly irrigation water requirement of a crop. Specifically, we quantify the likely changes in irrigation water demands at a location in the command area, as a response to the projected changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration at that location. Statistical downscaling with a canonical correlation analysis is carried out to develop the future scenarios of meteorological variables (rainfall, relative humidity (RH), wind speed (U-2), radiation, maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures) starting with simulations provided by a GCM for a specified emission scenario. The medium resolution Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate GCM is used with the A1B scenario, to assess the likely changes in irrigation demands for paddy, sugarcane, permanent garden and semidry crops over the command area of Bhadra reservoir, India. Results from the downscaling model suggest that the monthly rainfall is likely to increase in the reservoir command area. RH, Tmax and Tmin are also projected to increase with small changes in U-2. Consequently, the reference evapotranspiration, modeled by the Penman-Monteith equation, is predicted to increase. The irrigation requirements are assessed on monthly scale at nine selected locations encompassing the Bhadra reservoir command area. The irrigation requirements are projected to increase, in most cases, suggesting that the effect of projected increase in rainfall on the irrigation demands is offset by the effect due to projected increase/change in other meteorological variables (viz., Tmax and Tmin, solar radiation, RH and U-2). The irrigation demand assessment study carried out at a river basin will be useful for future irrigation management systems. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Regional variations in the nonlinearity and anisotropy of bovine aortic elastin

Arterial walls have a regular and lamellar organization of elastin present as concentric fenestrated networks in the media. In contrast, elastin networks are longitudinally oriented in layers adjacent to the media. In a previous model exploring the biomechanics of arterial elastin, we had proposed a microstructurally motivated strain energy function modeled using orthotropic material symmetry. Using mechanical experiments, we showed that the neo-Hookean term had a dominant contribution to the overall form of the strain energy function. In contrast, invariants corresponding to the two fiber families had smaller contributions. To extend these investigations, we use biaxial force-controlled experiments to quantify regional variations in the anisotropy and nonlinearity of elastin isolated from bovine aortic tissues proximal and distal to the heart. Results from this study show that tissue nonlinearity significantly increases distal to the heart as compared to proximally located regions (). Distally located samples also have a trend for increased anisotropy (), with the circumferential direction stiffer than the longitudinal, as compared to an isotropic and relatively linear response for proximally located elastin samples. These results are consistent with the underlying tissue histology from proximally located samples that had higher optical density (), fiber thickness (), and trend for lower tortuosity () in elastin fibers as compared to the thinner and highly undulating elastin fibers isolated from distally located samples. Our studies suggest that it is important to consider elastin fiber orientations in investigations that use microstructure-based models to describe the contributions of elastin and collagen to arterial mechanics.

Formulation of a mathematical approach to regional frequency analysis

Estimation of design quantiles of hydrometeorological variables at critical locations in river basins is necessary for hydrological applications. To arrive at reliable estimates for locations (sites) where no or limited records are available, various regional frequency analysis (RFA) procedures have been developed over the past five decades. The most widely used procedure is based on index-flood approach and L-moments. It assumes that values of scale and shape parameters of frequency distribution are identical across all the sites in a homogeneous region. In real-world scenario, this assumption may not be valid even if a region is statistically homogeneous. To address this issue, a novel mathematical approach is proposed. It involves (i) identification of an appropriate frequency distribution to fit the random variable being analyzed for homogeneous region, (ii) use of a proposed transformation mechanism to map observations of the variable from original space to a dimensionless space where the form of distribution does not change, and variation in values of its parameters is minimal across sites, (iii) construction of a growth curve in the dimensionless space, and (iv) mapping the curve to the original space for the target site by applying inverse transformation to arrive at required quantile(s) for the site. Effectiveness of the proposed approach (PA) in predicting quantiles for ungauged sites is demonstrated through Monte Carlo simulation experiments considering five frequency distributions that are widely used in RFA, and by case study on watersheds in conterminous United States. Results indicate that the PA outperforms methods based on index-flood approach.

Development of a regional model for the North Indian Ocean

We have developed a one-way nested Indian Ocean regional model. The model combines the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL) Modular Ocean Model (MOM4p1) at global climate model resolution (nominally one degree), and a regional Indian Ocean MOM4p1 configuration with 25 km horizontal resolution and 1 m vertical resolution near the surface. Inter-annual global simulations with Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II) surface forcing over years 1992-2005 provide surface boundary conditions. We show that relative to the global simulation, (i) biases in upper ocean temperature, salinity and mixed layer depth are reduced, (ii) sea surface height and upper ocean circulation are closer to observations, and (iii) improvements in model simulation can be attributed to refined resolution, more realistic topography and inclusion of seasonal river runoff. Notably, the surface salinity bias is reduced to less than 0.1 psu over the Bay of Bengal using relatively weak restoring to observations, and the model simulates the strong, shallow halocline often observed in the North Bay of Bengal. There is marked improvement in subsurface salinity and temperature, as well as mixed layer depth in the Bay of Bengal. Major seasonal signatures in observed sea surface height anomaly in the tropical Indian Ocean, including the coastal waveguide around the Indian peninsula, are simulated with great fidelity. The use of realistic topography and seasonal river runoff brings the three dimensional structure of the East India Coastal Current and West India Coastal Current much closer to observations. As a result, the incursion of low salinity Bay of Bengal water into the southeastern Arabian Sea is more realistic. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regional flood frequency analysis using kernel- based fuzzy clustering approach

Regionalization approaches are widely used in water resources engineering to identify hydrologically homogeneous groups of watersheds that are referred to as regions. Pooled information from sites (depicting watersheds) in a region forms the basis to estimate quantiles associated with hydrological extreme events at ungauged/sparsely gauged sites in the region. Conventional regionalization approaches can be effective when watersheds (data points) corresponding to different regions can be separated using straight lines or linear planes in the space of watershed related attributes. In this paper, a kernel-based Fuzzy c-means (KFCM) clustering approach is presented for use in situations where such linear separation of regions cannot be accomplished. The approach uses kernel-based functions to map the data points from the attribute space to a higher-dimensional space where they can be separated into regions by linear planes. A procedure to determine optimal number of regions with the KFCM approach is suggested. Further, formulations to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged sites with the approach are developed. Effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments and a case study on watersheds in United States. Comparison of results with those based on conventional Fuzzy c-means clustering, Region-of-influence approach and a prior study indicate that KFCM approach outperforms the other approaches in forming regions that are closer to being statistically homogeneous and in estimating flood quantiles at ungauged sites. Key Points Kernel-based regionalization approach is presented for flood frequency analysis Kernel procedure to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged sites is developed A set of fuzzy regions is delineated in Ohio, USA

Evaluating Methods to Predict Streamflow at Ungauged Sites using Regional Flow Duration Curves: A Case Study

Precise information on streamflows is of major importance for planning and monitoring of water resources schemes related to hydro power, water supply, irrigation, flood control, and for maintaining ecosystem. Engineers encounter challenges when streamflow data are either unavailable or inadequate at target locations. To address these challenges, there have been efforts to develop methodologies that facilitate prediction of streamflow at ungauged sites. Conventionally, time intensive and data exhaustive rainfall-runoff models are used to arrive at streamflow at ungauged sites. Most recent studies show improved methods based on regionalization using Flow Duration Curves (FDCs). A FDC is a graphical representation of streamflow variability, which is a plot between streamflow values and their corresponding exceedance probabilities that are determined using a plotting position formula. It provides information on the percentage of time any specified magnitude of streamflow is equaled or exceeded. The present study assesses the effectiveness of two methods to predict streamflow at ungauged sites by application to catchments in Mahanadi river basin, India. The methods considered are (i) Regional flow duration curve method, and (ii) Area Ratio method. The first method involves (a) the development of regression relationships between percentile flows and attributes of catchments in the study area, (b) use of the relationships to construct regional FDC for the ungauged site, and (c) use of a spatial interpolation technique to decode information in FDC to construct streamflow time series for the ungauged site. Area ratio method is conventionally used to transfer streamflow related information from gauged sites to ungauged sites. Attributes that have been considered for the analysis include variables representing hydrology, climatology, topography, land-use/land- cover and soil properties corresponding to catchments in the study area. Effectiveness of the presented methods is assessed using jack knife cross-validation. Conclusions based on the study are presented and discussed. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.