A score test for non-nested hypotheses with applications to discrete data models

This paper suggests that a convenient score test against non-nested alternatives can be constructed from the linear combination of the likelihood functions of the competing models. It is shown that this procedure is essentially a test for the correct specification of the conditional distribution of the variable of interest.

Comparing the performance of geostatistical models with additional information from covariates for sewage plume characterization

In this work, kriging with covariates is used to model and map the spatial distribution of salinity measurements gathered by an autonomous underwater vehicle in a sea outfall monitoring campaign aiming to distinguish the effluent plume from the receiving waters and characterize its spatial variability in the vicinity of the discharge. Four different geostatistical linear models for salinity were assumed, where the distance to diffuser, the west-east positioning, and the south-north positioning were used as covariates. Sample variograms were fitted by the Mat`ern models using weighted least squares and maximum likelihood estimation methods as a way to detect eventual discrepancies. Typically, the maximum likelihood method estimated very low ranges which have limited the kriging process. So, at least for these data sets, weighted least squares showed to be the most appropriate estimation method for variogram fitting. The kriged maps show clearly the spatial variation of salinity, and it is possible to identify the effluent plume in the area studied. The results obtained show some guidelines for sewage monitoring if a geostatistical analysis of the data is in mind. It is important to treat properly the existence of anomalous values and to adopt a sampling strategy that includes transects parallel and perpendicular to the effluent dispersion.

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Ankylosing spondylitis: genomic and functional characterization of candidate genes and their repercussion in clinical practice

RESUMO: Introdução: A espondilite anquilosante (EA) é uma doença inflamatória crónica caracterizada pela inflamação das articulações sacroilíacas e da coluna. A anquilose progressiva motiva uma deterioração gradual da função física e da qualidade de vida. O diagnóstico e o tratamento precoces podem contribuir para um melhor prognóstico. Neste contexto, a identificação de biomarcadores, assume-se como sendo muito útil para a prática clínica e representa hoje um grande desafio para a comunidade científica. Objetivos: Este estudo teve como objetivos: 1 - caracterizar a EA em Portugal; 2 - investigar possíveis associações entre genes, MHC e não-MHC, com a suscetibilidade e as características fenotípicas da EA; 3 - identificar genes candidatos associados a EA através da tecnologia de microarray. Material e Métodos: Foram recrutados doentes com EA, de acordo com os critérios modificados de Nova Iorque, nas consultas de Reumatologia dos diferentes hospitais participantes. Colecionaram-se dados demográficos, clínicos e radiológicos e colhidas amostras de sangue periférico. Selecionaram-se de forma aleatória, doentes HLA-B27 positivos, os quais foram tipados em termos de HLA classe I e II por PCR-rSSOP. Os haplótipos HLA estendidos foram estimados pelo algoritmo Expectation Maximization com recurso ao software Arlequin v3.11. As variantes alélicas dos genes IL23R, ERAP1 e ANKH foram estudadas através de ensaios de discriminação alélica TaqMan. A análise de associação foi realizada utilizando testes da Cochrane-Armitage e de regressão linear, tal como implementado pelo PLINK, para variáveis qualitativas e quantitativas, respetivamente. O estudo de expressão génica foi realizado por Illumina HT-12 Whole-Genome Expression BeadChips. Os genes candidatos foram validados usando qPCR-based TaqMan Low Density Arrays (TLDAs). Resultados: Foram incluídos 369 doentes (62,3% do sexo masculino, com idade média de 45,4 ± 13,2 anos, duração média da doença de 11,4 ± 10,5 anos). No momento da avaliação, 49,9% tinham doença axial, 2,4% periférica, 40,9% mista e 7,1% entesopática. A uveíte anterior aguda (33,6%) foi a manifestação extra-articular mais comum. Foram positivos para o HLA-B27, 80,3% dos doentes. Os haplótipo A*02/B*27/Cw*02/DRB1*01/DQB1*05 parece conferir suscetibilidade para a EA, e o A*02/B*27/Cw*01/DRB1*08/DQB1*04 parece conferir proteção em termos de atividade, repercussão funcional e radiológica da doença. Três variantes (2 para IL23R e 1 para ERAP1) mostraram significativa associação com a doença, confirmando a associação destes genes com a EA na população Portuguesa. O mesmo não se verificou com as variantes estudadas do ANKH. Não se verificou associação entre as variantes génicas não-MHC e as manifestações clínicas da EA. Foi identificado um perfil de expressão génica para a EA, tendo sido validados catorze genes - alguns têm um papel bem documentado em termos de inflamação, outros no metabolismo da cartilagem e do osso. Conclusões: Foi estabelecido um perfil demográfico e clínico dos doentes com EA em Portugal. A identificação de variantes génicas e de um perfil de expressão contribuem para uma melhor compreensão da sua fisiopatologia e podem ser úteis para estabelecer modelos com relevância em termos de diagnóstico, prognóstico e orientação terapêutica dos doentes. -----------ABSTRACT: Background: Ankylosing Spondylitis (AS) is a chronic inflammatory disorder characterized by inflammation in the spine and sacroiliac joints leading to progressive joint ankylosis and in progressive deterioration of physical function and quality of life. An early diagnosis and early therapy may contribute to a better prognosis. The identification of biomarkers would be helpful and represents a great challenge for the scientific community. Objectives: The present study had the following aims: 1- to characterize the pattern of AS in Portuguese patients; 2- to investigate MHC and non-MHC gene associations with susceptibility and phenotypic features of AS and; 3- to identify candidate genes associated with AS by means of whole-genome microarray. Material and Methods: AS was defined in accordance to the modified New York criteria and AS cases were recruited from hospital outcares patient clinics. Demographic and clinical data were recorded and blood samples collected. A random group of HLA-B27 positive patients and controls were selected and typed for HLA class I and II by PCR-rSSOP. The extended HLA haplotypes were estimated by Expectation Maximization Algorithm using Arlequin v3.11 software. Genotyping of IL23R, ERAP1 and ANKH allelic variants was carried out with TaqMan allelic discrimination assays. Association analysis was performed using the Cochrane-Armitage and linear regression tests as implemented in PLINK, for dichotomous and quantitative variables, respectively. Gene expression profile was carried out using Illumina HT-12 Whole-Genome Expression BeadChips and candidate genes were validated using qPCR-based TaqMan Low Density Arrays (TLDAs). Results: A total of 369 patients (62.3% male; mean age 45.4±13.2 years; mean disease duration 11.4±10.5 years), were included. Regarding clinical disease pattern, at the time of assessment, 49.9% had axial disease, 2.4% peripheral disease, 40.9% mixed disease and 7.1% isolated enthesopathic disease. Acute anterior uveitis (33.6%) was the most common extra-articular manifestation. 80.3% of AS patients were HLA-B27 positive. The haplotype A*02/B*27/Cw*02/DRB1*01/DQB1*05 seems to confer susceptibility to AS, whereas A*02/B*27/Cw*01/DRB1*08/DQB1*04 seems to provide protection in terms of disease activity, functional and radiological repercussion. Three markers (two for IL23R and one for ERAP1) showed significant single-locus disease associations. Association of these genes with AS in the Portuguese population was confirmed, whereas ANKH markers studied did not show an association with AS. No association was seen between non-MHC genes and clinical manifestations of AS. A gene expression signature for AS was established; among the fourteen validated genes, a number of them have a well-documented inflammatory role or in modulation of cartilage and bone metabolism. Conclusions: A demographic and clinical profile of patients with AS in Portugal was established. Identification of genetic variants of target genes as well as gene expression signatures could provide a better understanding of AS pathophysiology and could be useful to establish models with relevance in terms of susceptibility, prognosis, and potential therapeutic guidance.

Tuple-based morphisms for interoperability establishment of financial information models

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e Computadores

Histoplasmosis presenting with multiple pulmonary nodules. A case mimicking radiological features of pulmonary metastasis

We present a case of histoplasmosis with multiple pulmonary nodules in a patient with a history of melanoma. This case closely simulated malignancy, including the presence of feeding vessel sign, which occurs in pulmonary metastasis. We emphasize the need to be aware of this infection in areas where histoplasmosis is endemic.

ANIMAL MODELS FOR THE STUDY OF LEISHMANIASIS IMMUNOLOGY

Leishmaniasis remains a major public health problem worldwide and is classified as Category I by the TDR/WHO, mainly due to the absence of control. Many experimental models like rodents, dogs and monkeys have been developed, each with specific features, in order to characterize the immune response to Leishmania species, but none reproduces the pathology observed in human disease. Conflicting data may arise in part because different parasite strains or species are being examined, different tissue targets (mice footpad, ear, or base of tail) are being infected, and different numbers (“low” 1×102 and “high” 1×106) of metacyclic promastigotes have been inoculated. Recently, new approaches have been proposed to provide more meaningful data regarding the host response and pathogenesis that parallels human disease. The use of sand fly saliva and low numbers of parasites in experimental infections has led to mimic natural transmission and find new molecules and immune mechanisms which should be considered when designing vaccines and control strategies. Moreover, the use of wild rodents as experimental models has been proposed as a good alternative for studying the host-pathogen relationships and for testing candidate vaccines. To date, using natural reservoirs to study Leishmania infection has been challenging because immunologic reagents for use in wild rodents are lacking. This review discusses the principal immunological findings against Leishmania infection in different animal models highlighting the importance of using experimental conditions similar to natural transmission and reservoir species as experimental models to study the immunopathology of the disease.

Landslide susceptibility assessment in Karanganyar regency - Indonesia - Comparison of knowledge-based and Data-driven Models

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Algorithm for the Parkinson’s disease behavioural models characterization using a biosensor

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Biomédica

Development of novel human cellular models for neurotoxicity studies

Dissertation to obtain master degree in Genética Molecular e Biomedicina

Analysis of mental health service financial models with a particular emphasis of Ireland

ABSTRACT: Financing is a critical factor in ensuring the optimal development and delivery of a mental health system. The primary method of financing worldwide is tax-based. However many low income countries depend on out-of-pocket payments. There is a report on Irish Health Care funding but none that deals exclusively with mental health care. This paper analyses the various financial models that exist globally with respect to financing the mental health sector, examines the impact of various models on service users, especially in terms of relative ‘financial burden’ and provides a more detailed examination of the current mental health funding situation in Ireland After extensive internet and hardcopy research on the above topics, the findings were analysed and a number of recommendations were reached. Mental health service should be free at the point of delivery to achieve universal coverage. Government tax-based funding or mandatory social insurance with government top-ups, as required, appears the optimal option, although there is no one funding system applicable everywhere. Out-of-pocket funding can create a crippling financial burden for service users. It is important to employ improved revenue collection systems, eliminate waste, provide equitable resource distribution, ring fence mental health funding and cap the number of visits, where necessary. Political, economic, social and cultural factors play a role in funding decisions and this can be clearly seen in the context of the current economic recession in Ireland. Only 33% of the Irish population has access to free public health care and the number health insurance policy holders has dramatically declined, resulting in increased out-of-pocket payments. This approach risks negatively impacting on the social determinants of health, increasing health inequalities and negatively affecting economic productivity. It is therefore important the Irish government examines other options to provide funding for mental health services.

Empirical models for quantification of machining damage in composite materials

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Mecânica

Derivation and consistency checking of models in early software product line engineering

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Informática

Business models in the portuguese football clubs

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

How bank business models relate with risk?: The case of Portugal in times of financial crisis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics