Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula

Crops growing in the Iberian Peninsula may be subjected to damagingly high temperatures during the sensitive development periods of flowering and grain filling. Such episodes are considered important hazards and farmers may take insurance to offset their impact. Increases in value and frequency of maximum temperature have been observed in the Iberian Peninsula during the 20th century, and studies on climate change indicate the possibility of further increase by the end of the 21st century. Here, impacts of current and future high temperatures on cereal cropping systems of the Iberian Peninsula are evaluated, focusing on vulnerable development periods of winter and summer crops. Climate change scenarios obtained from an ensemble of ten Regional Climate Models (multimodel ensemble) combined with crop simulation models were used for this purpose and related uncertainty was estimated. Results reveal that higher extremes of maximum temperature represent a threat to summer-grown but not to winter-grown crops in the Iberian Peninsula. The study highlights the different vulnerability of crops in the two growing seasons and the need to account for changes in extreme temperatures in developing adaptations in cereal cropping systems. Finally, this work contributes to clarifying the causes of high-uncertainty impact projections from previous studies.

Ensemble transcript interaction networks: A case study on Alzheimer's disease

Systems biology techniques are a topic of recent interest within the neurological field. Computational intelligence (CI) addresses this holistic perspective by means of consensus or ensemble techniques ultimately capable of uncovering new and relevant findings. In this paper, we propose the application of a CI approach based on ensemble Bayesian network classifiers and multivariate feature subset selection to induce probabilistic dependences that could match or unveil biological relationships. The research focuses on the analysis of high-throughput Alzheimer's disease (AD) transcript profiling. The analysis is conducted from two perspectives. First, we compare the expression profiles of hippocampus subregion entorhinal cortex (EC) samples of AD patients and controls. Second, we use the ensemble approach to study four types of samples: EC and dentate gyrus (DG) samples from both patients and controls. Results disclose transcript interaction networks with remarkable structures and genes not directly related to AD by previous studies. The ensemble is able to identify a variety of transcripts that play key roles in other neurological pathologies. Classical statistical assessment by means of non-parametric tests confirms the relevance of the majority of the transcripts. The ensemble approach pinpoints key metabolic mechanisms that could lead to new findings in the pathogenesis and development of AD

Permutation tests for nonparametric detection

In this paper, the authors provide a methodology to design nonparametric permutation tests and, in particular, nonparametric rank tests for applications in detection. In the first part of the paper, the authors develop the optimization theory of both permutation and rank tests in the Neyman?Pearson sense; in the second part of the paper, they carry out a comparative performance analysis of the permutation and rank tests (detectors) against the parametric ones in radar applications. First, a brief review of some contributions on nonparametric tests is realized. Then, the optimum permutation and rank tests are derived. Finally, a performance analysis is realized by Monte-Carlo simulations for the corresponding detectors, and the results are shown in curves of detection probability versus signal-to-noise ratio

Ensemble. Acerca de las viviendas de Pérez Pita y Junquera.

Pérez Pita y Junquera, a la manera de Corrales y Molezún, es uno de los equipos más prestigiosos de su generación.

Automatic design of Ant Colony Optimization for permutation problems

In this study, we present a framework based on ant colony optimization (ACO) for tackling combinatorial problems. ACO algorithms have been applied to many diferent problems, focusing on algorithmic variants that obtain high-quality solutions. Usually, the implementations are re-done for various problem even if they maintain the same details of the ACO algorithm. However, our goal is to generate a sustainable framework for applications on permutation problems. We concentrate on understanding the behavior of pheromone trails and specific methods that can be combined. Eventually, we will propose an automatic offline configuration tool to build an efective algorithm. ---RESUMEN---En este trabajo vamos a presentar un framework basado en la familia de algoritmos ant colony optimization (ACO), los cuales están dise~nados para enfrentarse a problemas combinacionales. Los algoritmos ACO han sido aplicados a diversos problemas, centrándose los investigadores en diversas variantes que obtienen buenas soluciones. Normalmente, las implementaciones se tienen que rehacer, inclusos si se mantienen los mismos detalles para los algoritmos ACO. Sin embargo, nuestro objetivo es generar un framework sostenible para aplicaciones sobre problemas de permutaciones. Nos centraremos en comprender el comportamiento de la sendas de feromonas y ciertos métodos con los que pueden ser combinados. Finalmente, propondremos una herramienta para la configuraron automática offline para construir algoritmos eficientes.

Debonding detection of FRP strengthened concrete beams by using impedance measurements and an ensemble PSO adaptive spectral model

An impedance-based midspan debonding identification method for RC beams strengthened with FRP strips is presented in this paper using piezoelectric ceramic (PZT) sensor?actuators. To reach this purpose, firstly, a two-dimensional electromechanical impedance model is proposed to predict the electrical admittance of the PZT transducer bonded to the FRP strips of an RC beam. Considering the impedance is measured in high frequencies, a spectral element model of the bonded-PZT?FRP strengthened beam is developed. This model, in conjunction with experimental measurements of PZT transducers, is used to present an updating methodology to quantitatively detect interfacial debonding of these kinds of structures. To improve the performance and accuracy of the detection algorithm in a challenging problem such as ours, the structural health monitoring approach is solved with an ensemble process based on particle of swarm. An adaptive mesh scheme has also been developed to increase the reliability in locating the area in which debonding initiates. Predictions carried out with experimental results have showed the effectiveness and potential of the proposed method to detect prematurely at its earliest stages a critical failure mode such as that due to midspan debonding of the FRP strip.

Examining wheat yield sensitivity to temperature and precipitation changes for a large ensemble of crop models using impact response surfaces

Impact response surfaces (IRSs) depict the response of an impact variable to changes in two explanatory variables as a plotted surface. Here, IRSs of spring and winter wheat yields were constructed from a 25-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models. Twenty-one models were calibrated by different groups using a common set of calibration data, with calibrations applied independently to the same models in three cases. The sensitivity of modelled yield to changes in temperature and precipitation was tested by systematically modifying values of 1981-2010 baseline weather data to span the range of 19 changes projected for the late 21st century at three locations in Europe.

Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces

This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.

A feedback-controlled ensemble model of the stress-responsive hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal axis

The present work develops and implements a biomathematical statement of how reciprocal connectivity drives stress-adaptive homeostasis in the corticotropic (hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal) axis. In initial analyses with this interactive construct, we test six specific a priori hypotheses of mechanisms linking circadian (24-h) rhythmicity to pulsatile secretory output. This formulation offers a dynamic framework for later statistical estimation of unobserved in vivo neurohormone secretion and within-axis, dose-responsive interfaces in health and disease. Explication of the core dynamics of the stress-responsive corticotropic axis based on secure physiological precepts should help to unveil new biomedical hypotheses of stressor-specific system failure.

Ensemble codes involving hippocampal neurons are at risk during delayed performance tests

Multielectrode recording techniques were used to record ensemble activity from 10 to 16 simultaneously active CA1 and CA3 neurons in the rat hippocampus during performance of a spatial delayed-nonmatch-to-sample task. Extracted sources of variance were used to assess the nature of two different types of errors that accounted for 30% of total trials. The two types of errors included ensemble “miscodes” of sample phase information and errors associated with delay-dependent corruption or disappearance of sample information at the time of the nonmatch response. Statistical assessment of trial sequences and associated “strength” of hippocampal ensemble codes revealed that miscoded error trials always followed delay-dependent error trials in which encoding was “weak,” indicating that the two types of errors were “linked.” It was determined that the occurrence of weakly encoded, delay-dependent error trials initiated an ensemble encoding “strategy” that increased the chances of being correct on the next trial and avoided the occurrence of further delay-dependent errors. Unexpectedly, the strategy involved “strongly” encoding response position information from the prior (delay-dependent) error trial and carrying it forward to the sample phase of the next trial. This produced a miscode type error on trials in which the “carried over” information obliterated encoding of the sample phase response on the next trial. Application of this strategy, irrespective of outcome, was sufficient to reorient the animal to the proper between trial sequence of response contingencies (nonmatch-to-sample) and boost performance to 73% correct on subsequent trials. The capacity for ensemble analyses of strength of information encoding combined with statistical assessment of trial sequences therefore provided unique insight into the “dynamic” nature of the role hippocampus plays in delay type memory tasks.

Random circular permutation of genes and expressed polypeptide chains: application of the method to the catalytic chains of aspartate transcarbamoylase.

Recent studies on proteins whose N and C termini are in close proximity have demonstrated that folding of polypeptide chains and assembly of oligomers can be accomplished with circularly permuted chains. As yet no methodical study has been conducted to determine how extensively new termini can be introduced and where such termini cannot be tolerated. We have devised a procedure to generate random circular permutations of the catalytic chains of Escherichia coli aspartate transcarbamoylase (ATCase; EC 2.1.3.2) and to select clones that produce active or stable holoenzyme containing permuted chains. A tandem gene construct was made, based on the desired linkage between amino acid residues in the C- and N-terminal regions of the polypeptide chain, and this DNA was treated with a suitable restriction enzyme to yield a fragment containing the rearranged coding sequence for the chain. Circularization achieved with DNA ligase, followed by linearization at random with DNase I, and incorporation of the linearized, repaired, blunt-ended, rearranged genes into a suitable plasmid permitted the expression of randomly permuted polypeptide chains. The plasmid with appropriate stop codons also contained pyrI, the gene encoding the regulatory chain of ATCase. Colonies expressing detectable amounts of ATCase-like molecules containing permuted catalytic chains were identified by an immunoblot technique or by their ability to grow in the absence of pyrimidines in the growth medium. Sequencing of positive clones revealed a variety of novel circular permutations. Some had N and C termini within helices of the wild-type enzyme as well as deletions and insertions. Permutations were concentrated in the C-terminal domain and only few were detected in the N-terminal domain. The technique, which is adaptable generally to proteins whose N and C termini are near each other, can be of value in relating in vivo folding of nascent, growing polypeptide chains to in vitro renaturation of complete chains and determining the role of protein sequence in folding kinetics.

Critical properties of the four-state commutative random permutation glassy Potts model in three and four dimensions

We investigate the critical properties of the four-state commutative random permutation glassy Potts model in three and four dimensions by means of Monte Carlo simulations and a finite-size scaling analysis. By using a field programmable gate array, we have been able to thermalize a large number of samples of systems with large volume. This has allowed us to observe a spin-glass ordered phase in d=4 and to study the critical properties of the transition. In d=3, our results are consistent with the presence of a Kosterlitz-Thouless transition, but also with different scenarios: transient effects due to a value of the lower critical dimension slightly below 3 could be very important.

Fast pseudorandom generator based on packed matrices

Pseudorandom generators are a basic foundation of many cryptographic services and information security protocols. We propose a modification of a previously published matricial pseudorandom generator that significantly improves performance and security. The resulting generator is successfully compared to world class standards.

An optimized pseudorandom generator using packed matrices

Most cryptographic services and information security protocols require a dependable source of random data; pseudorandom generators are convenient and efficient for this application working as one of the basic foundation blocks on which to build the required security infrastructure. We propose a modification of a previously published matricial pseudorandom generator that significantly improves performance and security by using word packed matrices and modifying key scheduling and bit extraction schemes. The resulting generator is then successfully compared to world class standards.