Incidence of Garlic common latent virus in Argentina, and phylogenetic and recombination analyses of isolates

The objective of this work was to estimate the incidence and prevalence of Garlic common latent virus (GarCLV) in the main production regions of garlic (Allium sativum) in Argentina, and to perform phylogenetic and recombination analyses in isolates from these regions. Leaf samples (3,050) were taken from four garlic commercial types, in 13 departments of the four main garlic-producing provinces of Argentina, in a 1,175-ha sampling area. Virus infection was evaluated with DAS-Elisa test using specific antiserum, and the phylogenetic and recombination analyses were done with capsid protein (CP) nucleotide sequence of seven GarCLV isolates from the provinces. The incidence of GarCLV in the evaluated provinces varied between 6.7 and 22% of the samples, whereas the prevalence varied between 52.6 and 70%. In the analysis of garlic commercial types, Morado showed the highest incidence of the virus, in the province of San Juan, whereas Rosado Paraguayo had the lowest incidence, in the province of Cordoba. Nucleotide identity in the CP sequences ranged between 80.3 and 97.6%. The phylogenetic analysis shows the presence of two main groups of GarCLV and of a possible third group that would include only a German isolate. The recombination analysis between isolates from different parts of the world evidences the presence of recombinant isolates from Poland and Australia.

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

From bird to sparrow: Learning-induced modulations in fine-grained semantic discrimination.

Recognition of environmental sounds is believed to proceed through discrimination steps from broad to more narrow categories. Very little is known about the neural processes that underlie fine-grained discrimination within narrow categories or about their plasticity in relation to newly acquired expertise. We investigated how the cortical representation of birdsongs is modulated by brief training to recognize individual species. During a 60-minute session, participants learned to recognize a set of birdsongs; they improved significantly their performance for trained (T) but not control species (C), which were counterbalanced across participants. Auditory evoked potentials (AEPs) were recorded during pre- and post-training sessions. Pre vs. post changes in AEPs were significantly different between T and C i) at 206-232ms post stimulus onset within a cluster on the anterior part of the left superior temporal gyrus; ii) at 246-291ms in the left middle frontal gyrus; and iii) 512-545ms in the left middle temporal gyrus as well as bilaterally in the cingulate cortex. All effects were driven by weaker activity for T than C species. Thus, expertise in discriminating T species modulated early stages of semantic processing, during and immediately after the time window that sustains the discrimination between human vs. animal vocalizations. Moreover, the training-induced plasticity is reflected by the sharpening of a left lateralized semantic network, including the anterior part of the temporal convexity and the frontal cortex. Training to identify birdsongs influenced, however, also the processing of C species, but at a much later stage. Correct discrimination of untrained sounds seems to require an additional step which results from lower-level features analysis such as apperception. We therefore suggest that the access to objects within an auditory semantic category is different and depends on subject's level of expertise. More specifically, correct intra-categorical auditory discrimination for untrained items follows the temporal hierarchy and transpires in a late stage of semantic processing. On the other hand, correct categorization of individually trained stimuli occurs earlier, during a period contemporaneous with human vs. animal vocalization discrimination, and involves a parallel semantic pathway requiring expertise.

Bayesian Networks for the Age Classification of Living Individuals: a Study on Transition Analysis

Over the past few decades, age estimation of living persons has represented a challenging task for many forensic services worldwide. In general, the process for age estimation includes the observation of the degree of maturity reached by some physical attributes, such as dentition or several ossification centers. The estimated chronological age or the probability that an individual belongs to a meaningful class of ages is then obtained from the observed degree of maturity by means of various statistical methods. Among these methods, those developed in a Bayesian framework offer to users the possibility of coherently dealing with the uncertainty associated with age estimation and of assessing in a transparent and logical way the probability that an examined individual is younger or older than a given age threshold. Recently, a Bayesian network for age estimation has been presented in scientific literature; this kind of probabilistic graphical tool may facilitate the use of the probabilistic approach. Probabilities of interest in the network are assigned by means of transition analysis, a statistical parametric model, which links the chronological age and the degree of maturity by means of specific regression models, such as logit or probit models. Since different regression models can be employed in transition analysis, the aim of this paper is to study the influence of the model in the classification of individuals. The analysis was performed using a dataset related to the ossifications status of the medial clavicular epiphysis and results support that the classification of individuals is not dependent on the choice of the regression model.

Confirmatory factor analysis of an inventory of perception of insecurity and fear of crime

This paper focuses on the study of the factorial structure of an inventory to estimate the subjective perception of insecurity and fear of crime. Made from the review of the literature on the subject and the results obtained in previous works, this factor structure shows that this attitude towards insecurity and fear of crime is identified through a number of latent factors which are schematically summarized in (a) personal safety, (b) the perception of personal and social control, (c) the presence of threatening people or situations, (d) the processes of identity and space appropriation, (e) satisfaction with the environment, and (f) the environmental and the use of space. Such factors are relevant dimensions to analyze the phenomenon. Method: A sample of 571 participants in a neighborhood of Barcelona was evaluated with the proposed inventory, which yielded data from the distributions of all the items provided. The administration was conducted by researchers specially trained for it and the results were analyzed by using standard procedures in the confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) from the hypothesized theoretical structure. The analysis was performed by decatypes according to the different response scales prepared in the inventory and their ordinal nature, and by estimating the polychoric correlation coefficients. The results show an acceptable fit of the proposed model, an appropriate behavior of the residuals and statistically significant estimates of the factor loadings. This would indicate the goodness of the proposed factor structure.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of cardiac resynchronization therapy in patients with NYHA I and NYHA II heart failure in Spain

Objectives: The aim of the study was to combine clinical results from the European Cohort of the REVERSE study and costs associated with the addition of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) to optimal medical therapy (OMT) in patients with mild symptomatic (NYHA I-II) or asymptomatic left ventricular dysfunction and markers of cardiac dyssynchrony in Spain. Methods: A Markov model was developed with CRT + OMT (CRT-ON) versus OMT only (CRT-OFF) based on a retrospective cost-effectiveness analysis. Raw data was derived from literature and expert opinion, reflecting clinical and economic consequences of patient"s management in Spain. Time horizon was 10 years. Both costs (euro 2010) and effects were discounted at 3 percent per annum. Results: CRT-ON showed higher total costs than CRT-OFF; however, CRT reduced the length of hospitalization in ICU by 94 percent (0.006 versus 0.091 days) and general ward in by 34 percent (0.705 versus 1.076 days). Surviving CRT-ON patients (88.2 percent versus 77.5 percent) remained in better functional class longer, and they achieved an improvement of 0.9 life years (LYGs) and 0.77 years quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). CRT-ON proved to be cost-effective after 6 years, except for the 7th year due to battery depletion. At 10 years, the results were 18,431 per LYG and 21,500 per QALY gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed CRT-ON was cost-effective in 75.4 percent of the cases at 10 years. Conclusions: The use of CRT added to OMT represents an efficient use of resources in patients suffering from heart failure in NYHA functional classes I and II.

Genomic and transcriptomic analysis of the streptomycin-dependent Mycobacterium tuberculosis strain 18b.

The ability of Mycobacterium tuberculosis to establish a latent infection (LTBI) in humans confounds the treatment of tuberculosis. Consequently, there is a need to discover new therapeutic agents that can kill M. tuberculosis both during active disease and LTBI. The streptomycin-dependent strain of M. tuberculosis, 18b, provides a useful tool for this purpose since upon removal of streptomycin (STR) it enters a non-replicating state that mimics latency both in vitro and in animal models. The 4.41 Mb genome sequence of M. tuberculosis 18b was determined and this revealed the strain to belong to clade 3 of the ancient ancestral lineage of the Beijing family. STR-dependence was attributable to insertion of a single cytosine in the 530 loop of the 16S rRNA and to a single amino acid insertion in the N-terminal domain of initiation factor 3. RNA-seq was used to understand the genetic programme activated upon STR-withdrawal and hence to gain insight into LTBI. This revealed reconfiguration of gene expression and metabolic pathways showing strong similarities between non-replicating 18b and M. tuberculosis residing within macrophages, and with the core stationary phase and microaerophilic responses. The findings of this investigation confirm the validity of 18b as a model for LTBI, and provide insight into both the evolution of tubercle bacilli and the functioning of the ribosome.

Sequence analysis of the capsid protein gene of an isolate of Apple stem grooving virus, and its survey in Southern Brazil

Apple stem grooving virus (ASGV) is one of the most important viruses infecting fruit trees. This study aimed at the molecular characterization of ASGV infecting apple (Malus domestica) plants in Santa Catarina (SC). RNA extracted from plants infected with isolate UV01 was used as a template for RT-PCR using specific primers. An amplified DNA fragment of 755 bp was sequenced. The coat protein gene of ASGV isolate UV01 contains 714 nucleotides, coding for a protein of 237 amino acids with a predicted Mr of approximately 27 kDa. The nucleotide and the deduced amino acid sequences of the coat protein gene showed identities of 90.9% and 97.9%, respectively, with a Japanese isolate of ASGV. Very high amino acid homologies (98.7%) were also found with Citrus tatter leaf capillovirus (CTLV), a very close relative of ASGV. These results indicate low coat protein gene variability among Capillovirus isolates from distinct regions. In a restricted survey, mother stocks in orchards and plants introduced into the country for large scale fruit production were indexed and shown to be infected by ASGV (20%), usually in a complex with other (latent) apple viruses (80%).

Epidemiological analysis of clones and cultivars of potato in soil naturally infested with Ralstonia solanacearum biovar 2

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the progress of Ralstonia solanacearum bacterial potato wilt biovar 2 (race 3) in 14 potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) cultivars or clones, the resistance of potato clone MB 03 (selected in Brasília, Brazil) to race 1 of R. solanacearum, and the occurrence of the pathogen in tubers harvested from asymptomatic potato plants. During the spring (September to the end of November in the southern hemisphere) of 1999 and 2000, 14 cultivars or clones were grown in a field naturally infested with R. solanacearum biovar 2, in Caxias do Sul, RS. The number of wilted potato plants was recorded each week and a disease progress curve plotted, the resistance of the potato genotypes to bacterial wilt being evaluated by determining the area under the curve. Various models were evaluated to fit the curves, with the logistic model being the best fit. At the end of each growing season tubers produced by asymptomatic plants were harvested and stored until budding and then tested for the presence of R. solanacearum. Cultivar Cruza 148 and clone MB 03 were the most resistant but both showed tubers with latent infections. The epidemiological implications of the incidence of R. solanacearum biovar 2 (race 3) in potato crops, as well as the resistance of certain genotypes that may harbor latent infections, are important aspects to be considered in the integrated management of bacterial wilt.

Probabilistic structure of an annual extreme rainfall series of a coastal area of the State of São Paulo, Brazil

This study aimed to describe the probabilistic structure of the annual series of extreme daily rainfall (Preabs), available from the weather station of Ubatuba, State of São Paulo, Brazil (1935-2009), by using the general distribution of extreme value (GEV). The autocorrelation function, the Mann-Kendall test, and the wavelet analysis were used in order to evaluate the presence of serial correlations, trends, and periodical components. Considering the results obtained using these three statistical methods, it was possible to assume the hypothesis that this temporal series is free from persistence, trends, and periodicals components. Based on quantitative and qualitative adhesion tests, it was found that the GEV may be used in order to quantify the probabilities of the Preabs data. The best results of GEV were obtained when the parameters of this function were estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. The method of L-moments has also shown satisfactory results.

Formal development and quantitative verification of dependable systems

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Quantitative Analysis of Novel Prostate Cancer Markers in Tissue

Prostate cancer is a heterogeneous disease affecting an increasing number of men all over the world, but particularly in the countries with the Western lifestyle. The best biomarker assay currently available for the diagnosis of the disease, the measurement of prostate specific antigen (PSA) levels from blood, lacks specificity, and even when combined with invasive tests such as digital rectal exam and prostate tissue biopsies, these methods can both miss cancers, and lead to overdiagnosis and subsequent overtreatment of cancers. Moreover, they cannot provide an accurate prognosis for the disease. Due to the high prevalence of indolent prostate cancers, the majority of men affected by prostate cancer would be able to live without any medical intervention. Their latent prostate tumors would not cause any clinical symptoms during their lifetime, but few are willing to take the risk, as currently there are no methods or biomarkers to reliably differentiate the indolent cancers from the aggressive, lethal cases that really are in need of immediate medical treatment. This doctoral work concentrated on validating 12 novel candidate genes for use as biomarkers for prostate cancer by measuring their mRNA expression levels in prostate tissue and peripheral blood of men with cancer as well as unaffected individuals. The panel of genes included the most prominent markers in the current literature: PCA3 and the fusion gene TMPRSS2-ERG, in addition to BMP-6, FGF-8b, MSMB, PSCA, SPINK1, and TRPM8; and the kallikrein-related peptidase genes 2, 3, 4, and 15. Truly quantitative reverse-transcription PCR assays were developed for each of the genes for the purpose, time-resolved fluorometry was applied in the real-time detection of the amplification products, and the gene expression data were normalized by using artificial internal RNA standards. Cancer-related, statistically significant differences in gene transcript levels were found for TMPRSS2-ERG, PCA3, and in a more modest scale, for KLK15, PSCA, and SPINK1. PCA3 RNA was found in the blood of men with metastatic prostate cancer, but not in localized cases of cancer, suggesting limitations for using this method for early cancer detection in blood. TMPRSS2-ERG mRNA transcripts were found more frequently in cancerous than in benign prostate tissues, but they were present also in 51% of the histologically benign prostate tissues of men with prostate cancer, while being absent in specimens from men without any signs of prostate cancer. PCA3 was shown to be 5.8 times overexpressed in cancerous tissue, but similarly to the fusion gene mRNA, its levels were upregulated also in the histologically benign regions of the tissue if the corresponding prostate was harboring carcinoma. These results indicate a possibility to utilize these molecular assays to assist in prostate cancer risk evaluation especially in men with initially histologically negative biopsies.

Bronchial hyperresponsiveness and analysis of induced sputum cells in Crohn's disease

With the aim of investigating the presence of latent inflammatory process in the lungs of patients with Crohn's disease, 15 patients with Crohn's disease were evaluated by spirometry, the methacholine challenge test, induced sputum, and skin tests for inhaled antigens. Serum IgE, erythrocyte sedimentation rate and hematocrit were also determined. The patients were compared with 20 healthy controls by the Mann-Whitney and Fisher exact tests. Their respiratory physical examination was normal. None had a personal or family history of clinical atopy. None had a previous history of pulmonary disease, smoking or toxic bronchopulmonary exposure. None had sinusitis, migraine, diabetes mellitus, or cardiac failure. Four (26.6%) of the patients with Crohn's disease had a positive methacholine challenge test whereas none of the 20 controls had a positive methacholine test (P = 0.026, Fisher exact test). Patients with Crohn's disease had a higher level of lymphocytes in induced sputum than controls (mean 14.59%, range 3.2-50 vs 5.46%, 0-26.92%, respectively; P = 0.011, Mann-Whitney test). Patients with Crohn's disease and a positive methacholine challenge test had an even higher percentage of lymphocytes in induced sputum compared with patients with Crohn's disease and a negative methacholine test (mean 24.88%, range 12.87-50 vs 10.48%, 3.2-21.69%; P = 0.047, Mann-Whitney test). The simultaneous findings of bronchopulmonary lymphocytosis and bronchial hyperresponsiveness in patients with Crohn's disease were not reported up to now. These results suggest that patients with Crohn's disease present a subclinical inflammatory process despite the absence of pulmonary symptoms.