Probabilistic Analysis of Multistage Interconnection Network Performance

We present methods of calculating the value of two performance parameters for multipath, multistage interconnection networks: the normalized throughput and the probability of successful message transmission. We develop a set of exact equations for the loading probability mass functions of network channels and a program for solving them exactly. We also develop a Monte Carlo method for approxmiate solution of the equations, and show that the resulting approximation method will always calculate the values of the performance parameters more quickly than direct simulation.

Bayesian Analysis of Latent Threshold Dynamic Models

We discuss a general approach to dynamic sparsity modeling in multivariate time series analysis. Time-varying parameters are linked to latent processes that are thresholded to induce zero values adaptively, providing natural mechanisms for dynamic variable inclusion/selection. We discuss Bayesian model specification, analysis and prediction in dynamic regressions, time-varying vector autoregressions, and multivariate volatility models using latent thresholding. Application to a topical macroeconomic time series problem illustrates some of the benefits of the approach in terms of statistical and economic interpretations as well as improved predictions. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Probabilistic program analysis for parallelizing compilers

Parallelizing compilers have difficulty analysing and optimising complex code. To address this, some analysis may be delayed until run-time, and techniques such as speculative execution used. Furthermore, to enhance performance, a feedback loop may be setup between the compile time and run-time analysis systems, as in iterative compilation. To extend this, it is proposed that the run-time analysis collects information about the values of variables not already determined, and estimates a probability measure for the sampled values. These measures may be used to guide optimisations in further analyses of the program. To address the problem of variables with measures as values, this paper also presents an outline of a novel combination of previous probabilistic denotational semantics models, applied to a simple imperative language.

Analysis of Latent Tracks for MeV protons in CR-39

For protons of energy up to a few MeV, the temporal evolution of etched latent tracks in CR-39 nuclear track detector has been numerically modeled by assuming that the electronic energy loss of the protons governs the latent track formation. The technique is applied in order to obtain the energy spectrum of high intensity laser driven proton beams, with high accuracy. The precise measurement of the track length and areal track density have been achieved by scanning short etched, highly populated CR-39 employing atomic force microscope.

A probabilistic modelling scheme for analysis of long-term failure of cemented femoral joint replacements

Reliable prediction of long-term medical device performance using computer simulation requires consideration of variability in surgical procedure, as well as patient-specific factors. However, even deterministic simulation of long-term failure processes for such devices is time and resource consuming so that including variability can lead to excessive time to achieve useful predictions. This study investigates the use of an accelerated probabilistic framework for predicting the likely performance envelope of a device and applies it to femoral prosthesis loosening in cemented hip arthroplasty.
A creep and fatigue damage failure model for bone cement, in conjunction with an interfacial fatigue model for the implant–cement interface, was used to simulate loosening of a prosthesis within a cement mantle. A deterministic set of trial simulations was used to account for variability of a set of surgical and patient factors, and a response surface method was used to perform and accelerate a Monte Carlo simulation to achieve an estimate of the likely range of prosthesis loosening. The proposed framework was used to conceptually investigate the influence of prosthesis selection and surgical placement on prosthesis migration.
Results demonstrate that the response surface method is capable of dramatically reducing the time to achieve convergence in mean and variance of predicted response variables. A critical requirement for realistic predictions is the size and quality of the initial training dataset used to generate the response surface and further work is required to determine the recommendations for a minimum number of initial trials. Results of this conceptual application predicted that loosening was sensitive to the implant size and femoral width. Furthermore, different rankings of implant performance were predicted when only individual simulations (e.g. an average condition) were used to rank implants, compared with when stochastic simulations were used. In conclusion, the proposed framework provides a viable approach to predicting realistic ranges of loosening behaviour for orthopaedic implants in reduced timeframes compared with conventional Monte Carlo simulations.

“Signal, image and video processing” special issue: Semantic representations for social behavior analysis in video surveillance systems

No abstract available

Latent vs. Observed Variables: Analysis of Irrigation Water Efficiency Using SEM and SUR

In this paper we compare conceptualising single factor technical and allocative efficiency as indicators of a single latent variable, or as separate observed variables. In the former case, the impacts on both efficiency types are analysed by means of structural equation modeling (SEM), in the latter by seemingly unrelated regression (SUR). We compare estimation results of the two approaches based on a dataset on single factor irrigation water use efficiency obtained from a survey of 360 farmers in the Guanzhong Plain, China. The main methodological findings are that SEM allows identification of the most important dimension of irrigation water efficiency (technical efficiency) via comparison of their factor scores and reliability. Moreover, it reduces multicollinearity and attenuation bias. It thus is preferable to SUR. The SEM estimates show that perception of water scarcity is the most important positive determinant of both types of efficiency, followed by irrigation infrastructure, income and water price. Furthermore, there is a strong negative reverse effect from efficiency on perception.

The Future of services: Uncovering latent needs through trend analysis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Probability Theory. Stochastic Processes And Their Applications Probabilistic Analysis Of Some Queueing And Inventory Models

In this thesis we attempt to make a probabilistic analysis of some physically realizable, though complex, storage and queueing models. It is essentially a mathematical study of the stochastic processes underlying these models. Our aim is to have an improved understanding of the behaviour of such models, that may widen their applicability. Different inventory systems with randon1 lead times, vacation to the server, bulk demands, varying ordering levels, etc. are considered. Also we study some finite and infinite capacity queueing systems with bulk service and vacation to the server and obtain the transient solution in certain cases. Each chapter in the thesis is provided with self introduction and some important references

Semantic web mining and the representation, analysis, and evolution of web space

Semantic Web Mining aims at combining the two fast-developing research areas Semantic Web and Web Mining. This survey analyzes the convergence of trends from both areas: Growing numbers of researchers work on improving the results of Web Mining by exploiting semantic structures in the Web, and they use Web Mining techniques for building the Semantic Web. Last but not least, these techniques can be used for mining the Semantic Web itself. The second aim of this paper is to use these concepts to circumscribe what Web space is, what it represents and how it can be represented and analyzed. This is used to sketch the role that Semantic Web Mining and the software agents and human agents involved in it can play in the evolution of Web space.