Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations

Abstract Purpose- There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time-series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach- The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings- Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications- This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value- This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models such as self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level. Keywords Tourism, Forecasting, Consumers, Spain, Demand management Paper type Research paper

Determinants of school efficiency : The case of primary schools in the State of Geneva, Switzerland

Purpose The purpose of this paper is (1) to measure school technical efficiency and (2) to identify the determinants of primary school performance. Design/methodology/approach A two-stage Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) of school efficiency is conducted. At the first stage, DEA is employed to calculate an individual efficiency score for each school. At the second stage, efficiency is regressed on school characteristics and environmental variables. Findings The mean technical efficiency of schools in the State of Geneva is equal to 93%. By improving the operation of schools, 7% (100 - 93) of inputs could be saved, representing 17'744'656.2 Swiss francs in 2010. School efficiency is negatively influenced by (1) operations being held on multiple sites, (2) the proportion of disadvantaged pupils enrolled at the school and (3) the provision of special education, but positively influenced by school size (captured by the number of pupils). Practical implications Technically, the determinants of school efficiency are outside of the control of the headteachers. However, it is still possible to either boost the positive impact or curb the negative impact. Potential actions are discussed. Originality/value Unlike most similar studies, the model in this study is tested for multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity and endogeneity. It is therefore robust. Moreover, one explanatory variable of school efficiency (operations being held on multiple sites) is a truly original variable as it has never been tested so far.

Clinical determinants of early parasitological response to ACTs in African patients with uncomplicated falciparum malaria: a literature review and meta-analysis of individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum has emerged in the Greater Mekong sub-region and poses a major global public health threat. Slow parasite clearance is a key clinical manifestation of reduced susceptibility to artemisinin. This study was designed to establish the baseline values for clearance in patients from Sub-Saharan African countries with uncomplicated malaria treated with artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs). METHODS: A literature review in PubMed was conducted in March 2013 to identify all prospective clinical trials (uncontrolled trials, controlled trials and randomized controlled trials), including ACTs conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa, between 1960 and 2012. Individual patient data from these studies were shared with the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN) and pooled using an a priori statistical analytical plan. Factors affecting early parasitological response were investigated using logistic regression with study sites fitted as a random effect. The risk of bias in included studies was evaluated based on study design, methodology and missing data. RESULTS: In total, 29,493 patients from 84 clinical trials were included in the analysis, treated with artemether-lumefantrine (n = 13,664), artesunate-amodiaquine (n = 11,337) and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (n = 4,492). The overall parasite clearance rate was rapid. The parasite positivity rate (PPR) decreased from 59.7 % (95 % CI: 54.5-64.9) on day 1 to 6.7 % (95 % CI: 4.8-8.7) on day 2 and 0.9 % (95 % CI: 0.5-1.2) on day 3. The 95th percentile of observed day 3 PPR was 5.3 %. Independent risk factors predictive of day 3 positivity were: high baseline parasitaemia (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.16 (95 % CI: 1.08-1.25); per 2-fold increase in parasite density, P <0.001); fever (>37.5 °C) (AOR = 1.50 (95 % CI: 1.06-2.13), P = 0.022); severe anaemia (AOR = 2.04 (95 % CI: 1.21-3.44), P = 0.008); areas of low/moderate transmission setting (AOR = 2.71 (95 % CI: 1.38-5.36), P = 0.004); and treatment with the loose formulation of artesunate-amodiaquine (AOR = 2.27 (95 % CI: 1.14-4.51), P = 0.020, compared to dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine). CONCLUSIONS: The three ACTs assessed in this analysis continue to achieve rapid early parasitological clearance across the sites assessed in Sub-Saharan Africa. A threshold of 5 % day 3 parasite positivity from a minimum sample size of 50 patients provides a more sensitive benchmark in Sub-Saharan Africa compared to the current recommended threshold of 10 % to trigger further investigation of artemisinin susceptibility.

Contratación de la mano de obra y desempeño en los servicios intensivos en conocimiento: una visión del capital intelectual

Objeto: El desempeño de las actividades de servicios de alto valor añadido ofrecidospor las empresas manufactureras, de la misma forma que el de los servicios intensivosen conocimiento, puede verse afectado por las formas de contratación de la mano deobra utilizadas en ellas. Se estudia el impacto del uso de trabajo contingente (temporal y autónomo) sobre la productividad del trabajo en las empresas de servicios intensivos en conocimiento. Para desarrollar las hipótesis, se tiene en cuenta el impacto potencial del trabajo contingente sobre el capital intangible de la empresa, así como los resultados de la literatura empírica.Diseño/metodología: Se analizan los datos de una muestra de 279 empresas de servicios intensivos en conocimiento localizadas en Cataluña, mediante dos modelos de regresión lineal.Aportaciones y resultados: Los resultados muestran que el empleo de formas de trabajo contingentes, como el trabajo temporal y los trabajadores autónomos, tiene un impacto negativo en la productividad del trabajo. No existe, en cambio, una relación cuadrática entre estas variables. Limitaciones: La muestra utilizada procede exclusivamente de Cataluña (España), noes perfectamente extrapolable al conjunto de empresas de servicios intensivos enconocimiento y se obtuvo en la fase alcista del ciclo económico. El diseño del estudio estransversal. La clasificación de las empresas como intensivas en conocimiento esdicotómica, en función del sector al que pertenecen. Implicaciones prácticas:Las decisiones sobre la contratación de mano de obra en actividades de servicios de alto valor añadido deberían minimizar las formas de trabajocontingentes, si quieren mejorar su productividad.Implicaciones sociales: Un modelo productivo que pretenda potenciar los servicios de mayor valor añadido no puede descansar sobre la base de un mercado laboral en el que las empresas utilizan una elevada proporción de trabajo contingente en su mano de obra. Valor añadido: Este artículo ofrece nuevos datos para a la escasa literatura que relaciona el uso de trabajo contingente con la productividad en el sector de los servicios intensivos en conocimiento. La creciente importancia de los servicios de alto valor añadido, tanto en empresas de servicios como manufactureras, y el interés por conocer los determinantes de su productividad justifican la necesidad de realizar estudios como el que se presenta.

Haja-asutusalueen keskijänniteverkon kaapeloinnin ja automaation suunnittelumetodiikka

Tässä diplomityössä tutkitaan erilaisia keskijänniteverkon kehittämismenetelmiä sekä suunnittelua haja-asutusalueelle. Suunnittelumetodiikan perustana on vertailla sähköverkon käyttövarmuuden tunnuslukujen sekä kokonaiskustannusten kehittymistä erilaisilla investointiratkaisuilla. Lähemmässä tarkastelussa ovat erilaiset kaapelointimenetelmät sekä automaatiolaitteet kuten maastoon sijoitettavat katkaisijat sekä kauko-ohjattavat erottimet. Kehittämisratkaisujen vertailemiseksi sähköverkosta muodostetaan laskentaa varten malli, jonka avulla on mahdollista tarkastella mm. käyttövarmuuden tunnuslukujen sekä verkon kustannusten kehittymistä. Verkon kustannuksissa otetaan huomioon investointikustannukset, käyttö- ja kunnossapitokustannukset, viankorjauskustannukset sekä keskeytyskustannukset. Keskeytysten laskentaa varten toteutetaan erilliset laskentalohkot, jotta keskeytyskustannukset saadaan mallinnettua tarkasti. Kaapelointistrategia-analyysissä vertaillaan kaapeloinnin erilaisia toteuttamisperiaatteita. Erilaisia tutkittavia kaapelointimenetelmiä ovat vyörytysmenetelmä, vikaherkimpien kohteiden uusinta, vanhimpien kohteiden uusinta, täydellinen kaapelointi sekä optimiverkostoratkaisu, jossa on hyödynnetty keskijännitejohtojen kaapeloinnin lisäksi mm. automaatioratkaisuja ja 1000 V tekniikkaa. Kaapelointimenetelmiä vertailtaessa on havaittu, että vikaherkimmistä kohteista aloitettava saneeraus tuottaa parhaimman tuloksen, jos optimiratkaisua ei oteta huomioon.

La identificación de buenas prácticas en la mejora de la convivencia : un acercamiento a los centros públicos de Educación Secundaria de Cataluña

The article describes and summarizes some results of the research Identification of the difficulties, collection of good practices and analysis of the improvement processes in Secondary Education Institutes of Catalonia (2011). An approach to the situation of conviviality in the Catalan public Secondary schools gathering the perception of the management teams, through an ethnographic approach and of analysis of the stories. It has its origin in a work commissioned from the General Subdirectorate of Permanent Teacher Training of the Generalitat of Catalonia, developed in the context of the module “Conviviality and Organization of Centres”, within the program of permanent training of management teams. It falls in line with action-oriented research to improve practice. The paper gathers and synthesizes the results obtained in the collection and systematization of the proposed improvements. It is structured in three parts: a) a theoretical analysis which conceptualizes violence / conviviality and sense of good practices; b) the explanation of the design, methodology and development of research and c) the categorization of the improvement proposals and the conclusions of the work

Web services to link interlibrary software with OCLC WorldShare

Purpose - This article describes the use of web services to interconnect the GTBib interlibrary loan program with the OCLC WorldShare platform. Design/methodology/approach - We describe the current problem of duplication of procedures in libraries that have added their collections to the OCLC WorldCat catalogue in recent years and are therefore more likely to receive interlibrary loan requests through the WorldShare Platform. Findings - A solution that uses web services to insert and retrieve requests between the two systems is presented. Autonomous agents periodically check the status of the requests and keep them updated and synchronized. These agents also inform the library staff of any variation or inconsistency that is detected. Practical Implications - This technology reduces process management time by making it unnecessary to introduce the request data in both systems. Agents are used to check the consistency of statuses between the two systems, thus avoiding errors and omissions and improving the efficiency of the whole interlibrary loan process. Originality/value - This paper describes in detail the technical aspects of the solution as a reference for the development of future applications.

Heat Transfer in Plate Heat Exchangers

This study illustrates the different types of plate heat exchangers that are commonly used in various domestic and industrial applications. The main purpose of this paper was to devise a methodology that is capable of calculating optimum number of plates in the design of a plate heat exchanger. To obtain the appropriate number of plates, typically several iterations must be made before a final acceptable design is completed, since plate amount depends on many factors such as, flow velocities, physical properties of the streams, flow channel geometry, allowable pressure drop, plate dimensions, and the gap between the plates. The methodology presented here can be used as a general guide for designing a plate heat exchanger. To investigate the effects of relevant parameters on the thermal-hydraulic design of a plate heat exchanger, several experiments were carried out for single-phase and counter flow arrangement with two brazed plate heat exchangers by varying the flow rates and the inlet temperatures of the fluid streams. The actual heat transfer coefficients obtained based on the experiment were nearly close to the calculated values and to improve the design, a correction factor was introduced. Besides, the effect of flow channel velocity on the pressure drop inside the unit is presented.

Influência das variáveis nitrogênio, fósforo e ºBrix na produção dos metabólicos secundários contaminantes totais da fermentação alcoólica

The present study evaluated the influence of nitrogen, phosphorus and ºBrix on the production of MSCT through a factorial design methodology and analysis of response surface. The objective was to propose a statistically significant probabilistic model for the alcoholic fermentation. In order to obtain less MSCT, the medium under fermentation needs to present low sugar concentration. It was observed that phosphorus and nitrogen, even with no significant individual effects, presented interactions with each other decreasing the production of MSCT, which improves alcohol quality.

Designing and manufacturing of a soybean harvest residue picker

ABSTRACT Soy harvest matches seasons with shortage of dry matter supply for ruminant feeding in most Brazilian soy-growing areas. Agricultural machinery-producing companies must have market perception, observing new opportunities and developing equipment to meet costumers’ needs. This paper aims to design, build, and test a device to collect soybean crop residues from the combine cleaning mechanism, consisting mainly of vegetable straw (chaff), and the other plant parts (stems) remain being deposited onto the ground. For equipment designing, we made use of the architectural design methodology proposed in the reference model for the agricultural machinery development process. The equipment was designed and built following the proposed methodology, then installed and put into operation in a John Deere 1165 combine. After initial testing and few adjustments, the device showed satisfactory chaff-collecting performance. The equipment consists of a screw conveyor assembled transversely to the combine and a centrifugal fan assembled on the side. The collected chaff is dumped into a trailer towed by tractor.

Application du concept des transactions pour la modélisation et la simulation multicoeur des systèmes sur puce

Avec la complexité croissante des systèmes sur puce, de nouveaux défis ne cessent d’émerger dans la conception de ces systèmes en matière de vérification formelle et de synthèse de haut niveau. Plusieurs travaux autour de SystemC, considéré comme la norme pour la conception au niveau système, sont en cours afin de relever ces nouveaux défis. Cependant, à cause du modèle de concurrence complexe de SystemC, relever ces défis reste toujours une tâche difficile. Ainsi, nous pensons qu’il est primordial de partir sur de meilleures bases en utilisant un modèle de concurrence plus efficace. Par conséquent, dans cette thèse, nous étudions une méthodologie de conception qui offre une meilleure abstraction pour modéliser des composants parallèles en se basant sur le concept de transaction. Nous montrons comment, grâce au raisonnement simple que procure le concept de transaction, il devient plus facile d’appliquer la vérification formelle, le raffinement incrémental et la synthèse de haut niveau. Dans le but d’évaluer l’efficacité de cette méthodologie, nous avons fixé l’objectif d’optimiser la vitesse de simulation d’un modèle transactionnel en profitant d’une machine multicoeur. Nous présentons ainsi l’environnement de modélisation et de simulation parallèle que nous avons développé. Nous étudions différentes stratégies d’ordonnancement en matière de parallélisme et de surcoût de synchronisation. Une expérimentation faite sur un modèle du transmetteur Wi-Fi 802.11a a permis d’atteindre une accélération d’environ 1.8 en utilisant deux threads. Avec 8 threads, bien que la charge de travail des différentes transactions n’était pas importante, nous avons pu atteindre une accélération d’environ 4.6, ce qui est un résultat très prometteur.

Les facteurs internes et externes ayant un impact sur le retour aux études universitaires des professionnels en transition de carrière

Objet : Au Québec, comme dans le reste du Canada, le nombre de professionnels en reprise d’étude est en nette augmentation. Parmi ces professionnels, un certain nombre se trouve en situation de transition professionnelle après plusieurs années de travail. L'objectif de cette recherche est de déterminer quels facteurs influent sur les retours aux études de ces professionnels. Méthode : au total, 625 étudiants adultes de la faculté d’éducation permanente de l’Université de Montréal ont reçu une invitation à répondre à un sondage en ligne après avoir informé de leur intérêt pour notre étude. Le sondage en ligne a rendu possible la collection de 170 réponses (taux de réponses de 27,2%) à notre questionnaire de 64 questions. Les informations collectées ont permis la création de diverses variables ainsi que d’indices de confiance, de volonté, de temps, d’information qui ont par la suite été recoupés avec les informations dispositionnelles, situationnelles, institutionnelles et démographiques de notre échantillon. Découvertes : Il apparaît que la confiance, la motivation et le temps sont les facteurs ayant le plus d’impact sur le retour aux études de notre échantillon. Implication : Maintenir la motivation et la confiance semble être la clé pour minimiser l'impact de facteurs défavorables sur les professionnels qui décident de retourner à l'école après leur début de carrière. Originalité et intérêt : Peu d'études ont été réalisées sur la participation de ces professionnels en transition à des programmes de formation universitaire, cette étude exploratoire est un premier pas dans la collecte d’information sur une population méconnue.

Behaviour of laterised normal and self compacting concrete subjected to elevated temperatures

Concrete is a universal material in the construction industry. With natural resources like sand and aggregate, fast depleting, it is time to look for alternate materials to substitute these in the process of making concrete. There are instances like exposure to solar radiation, fire, furnaces, and nuclear reactor vessels, special applications like missile launching pads etc., where concrete is exposed to temperature variations In this research work, an attempt has been made to understand the behaviour of concrete when weathered laterite aggregate is used in both conventional and self compacting normal strength concrete. The study has been extended to understand the thermal behaviour of both types of laterised concretes and to check suitability as a fire protection material. A systematic study of laterised concrete considering parameters like source of laterite aggregate, grades of Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) and types of supplementary cementitious materials (fly ash and GGBFS) has been carried out to arrive at a feasible combination of various ingredients in laterised concrete. A mix design methodology has been proposed for making normal strength laterised self compacting concrete based on trial mixes and the same has also been validated. The physical and mechanical properties of laterised concretes have been studied with respect to different variables like exposure temperature (200°C, 400°C and 600°C) and cooling environment (air cooled and water cooled). The behaviour of ferrocement elements with laterised self compacting concrete has also been studied by varying the cover to mesh reinforcement (10mm to 50mm at an interval of 10mm), exposure temperature and cooling environment.

Using open source software for digital libraries A case study of CUSAT

The purpose of this paper is to describe the design and development of a digital library at Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT), India, using DSpace open source software. The study covers the structure, contents and usage of CUSAT digital library. Design/methodology/approach – This paper examines the possibilities of applying open source in libraries. An evaluative approach is carried out to explore the features of the CUSAT digital library. The Google Analytics service is employed to measure the amount of use of digital library by users across the world. Findings – CUSAT has successfully applied DSpace open source software for building a digital library. The digital library has had visits from 78 countries, with the major share from India. The distribution of documents in the digital library is uneven. Past exam question papers share the major part of the collection. The number of research papers, articles and rare documents is less. Originality/value – The study is the first of its type that tries to understand digital library design and development using DSpace open source software in a university environment with a focus on the analysis of distribution of items and measuring the value by usage statistics employing the Google Analytics service. The digital library model can be useful for designing similar systems

Automatic Analysis and Synthesis of Controllers for Dynamical Systems Based On P

I present a novel design methodology for the synthesis of automatic controllers, together with a computational environment---the Control Engineer's Workbench---integrating a suite of programs that automatically analyze and design controllers for high-performance, global control of nonlinear systems. This work demonstrates that difficult control synthesis tasks can be automated, using programs that actively exploit and efficiently represent knowledge of nonlinear dynamics and phase space and effectively use the representation to guide and perform the control design. The Control Engineer's Workbench combines powerful numerical and symbolic computations with artificial intelligence reasoning techniques. As a demonstration, the Workbench automatically designed a high-quality maglev controller that outperforms a previous linear design by a factor of 20.