Monetary policy misspecification in VAR models

We examine the effects of extracting monetary policy disturbances with semi-structural and structural VARs, using data generated bya limited participation model under partial accommodative and feedback rules. We find that, in general, misspecification is substantial: short run coefficients often have wrong signs; impulse responses and variance decompositions give misleadingrepresentations of the dynamics. Explanations for the results and suggestions for macroeconomic practice are provided.

Dynamics of the control of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti Linnaeus (Diptera, Culicidae) by Bacillus thuringiensis var israelensis, related with temperature, density and concentration of insecticide

The dynamics of the control of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti Linnaeus, (Diptera, Culicidae) by Bacillus thuringiensis var israelensis has been related with the temperature, density and concentration of the insecticide. A mathematical model for biological control of Aedes aegypti with Bacillus thuringiensis var israelensis (Bti) was constructed by using data from the literature regarding the biology of the vector. The life cycle was described by differential equations. Lethal concentrations (LC50 and LC95) of Bti were determined in the laboratory under different experimental conditions. Temperature, colony, larvae density and bioinsecticide concentration presented marked differences in the analysis of the whole set of variables; although when analyzed individually, only the temperature and concentration showed changes. The simulations indicated an inverse relationship between temperature and mosquito population, nonetheless, faster growth of populations is reached at higher temperatures. As conclusion, the model suggests the use of integrated control strategies for immature and adult mosquitoes in order to achieve a reduction of Aedes aegypti.

Ocorrência e recomendações para o manejo de Sirex noctilio Fabricius (Hymenoptera, Siricidae) em plantios de Pinus patula (Pinaceae) em Minas Gerais, Brasil

A vespa-da-madeira Sirex noctilio Fabricius, 1793 (Hymenoptera, Siricidae) é a praga mais importante das florestas cultivadas com Pinus spp. no Brasil. Foi introduzida no Rio Grande do Sul em 1988 e sua dispersão ficou restrita aos estados do sul do país até 2004, quando foi detectada em São Paulo. Neste trabalho é relatada a ocorrência de S. noctilio em plantios de Pinus patula em Minas Gerais, em janeiro de 2005. São discutidas algumas medidas que podem ser adotadas para restringir a dispersão de S. noctilio na região Sudeste.

Estimating multi-country VAR models

This paper describes a methodology to estimate the coefficients, to test specification hypothesesand to conduct policy exercises in multi-country VAR models with cross unit interdependencies, unit specific dynamics and time variations in the coefficients. The framework of analysis is Bayesian: a prior flexibly reduces the dimensionality of the model and puts structure on the time variations; MCMC methods are used to obtain posterior distributions; and marginal likelihoods to check the fit of various specifications. Impulse responses and conditional forecasts are obtained with the output of MCMC routine. The transmission of certain shocks across countries is analyzed.

Monetary policy shocks and transmission in Italy: A VAR analysis

This paper provides updated empirical evidence about the real and nominal effects of monetary policy in Italy, by using structural VAR analysis. We discuss different empirical approaches that have been used in order to identify monetary policy exogenous shocks. We argue that the data support the view that the Bank of Italy, at least in the recent past, has been targeting the rate on overnight interbank loans. Therefore, we interpret shocks to the overnight rate as purely exogenous monetary policy shocks and study how different macroeconomic variables react to such shocks.

Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model which accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for a particular type of diffuse, for Minnesota-type and for hierarchical priors. Formulas for multistep, multiunit point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided.

Histoplasma capsulatum var. duboisii infection in a patient with AIDS: rapid diagnosis using polymerase chain reaction-sequencing.

We describe an original case of disseminated infection with Histoplasma capsulatum (Hc) var. duboisii in an African patient with AIDS who migrated to Switzerland. The diagnosis of histoplasmosis was suggested using direct examination of tissues and confirmed in 24 h with a panfungal polymerase chain reaction assay. The variety duboisii of Hc was established using DNA sequencing of the polymorphic genomic region OLE. Molecular tools allow diagnosis of histoplasmosis in 24 h, which is drastically shorter than culture procedures.

Département du Var : Divisé par les Contributions Indirectes en directions d'Arrondissements Recettes Sédentaires Recettes Ambulantes à cheval Recettes Ambulantes à pied & Recettes Buralistes

Échelle(s) : [ca 1:263 000], Echelle de 40000 Mètres

Lycaenid caterpillars (Lepidoptera, Lycaenidae) eating flowers of Dalea pennellii var. chilensis (Fabaceae) in the northern Chilean Andes

Lycaenid caterpillars (Lepidoptera, Lycaenidae) eating flowers of Dalea pennellii var. chilensis (Fabaceae) in the northern Chilean Andes. The shrub Dalea pennellii var. chilensis (Fabaceae) is reported for the first time as a host plant for three Neotropical Polyommatini (Lepidoptera, Lycaenidae, Polyommatinae): Hemiargus ramon (Dognin, 1887), Leptotes trigemmatus (Butler, 1881) and Nabokovia faga (Dognin, 1895), based on two collections performed in the western slopes of the northern Chilean Andes in two consecutive summers. The relative abundance was always above 90% for N. faga while it was always less than 5% for H. ramon and L. trigemmatus. Furthermore, N. faga was not found on inflorescences of other native Fabaceae examined in the study site. This pattern suggests a close relationship between N. faga and D. pennellii var. chilensis, at least at a local scale.

The taxonomic identity of Heliconius melpomene f. pyritosa var. fumigata Zikán (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae)

The taxonomic identity of the butterfly Heliconius melpomene f. pyritosa var. fumigata Zikán, 1937 (Nymphalidae: Heliconiinae) is discussed based on the discovery of the specimen based on which this name was assigned. The specimen is not a variation of Eueides tales surdus Stichel, 1903, as previously stated, but is in fact a variation of H. melpomene f. pyritosa, which is a synonym of Heliconius erato amalfreda Riffarth, 1901.

[Phot. d'une pierre tumulaire à Brignoles (Var), don Octave Teissier en 1892]

Donateur : Teissier, Octave (1825-1904)

Nodulação e micorrização em Anadenanthera peregrina var. falcata em solo de cerrado autoclavado e não autoclavado

Anadenanthera peregrina var. falcata (angico-do-cerrado), uma leguminosa arbórea, forma associações simbióticas com bactérias fixadoras de nitrogênio (rizóbios) e com fungos micorrízicos arbusculares. Com o objetivo de avaliar a eficiência da inoculação de fungos micorrízicos e rizóbios no crescimento inicial de plantas de angico-do-cerrado, crescidas em solo autoclavado e em solo não autoclavado com e sem inoculação, foi desenvolvido um experimento em casa de vegetação, utilizando raízes micorrizadas de milho e uma mistura de isolados de rizóbios como inoculantes. O crescimento das plantas foi influenciado positivamente pela concomitante inoculação do fungo micorrízico e do rizóbio, tendo as plantas desse tratamento apresentado biomassa cerca de 60 % maior do que o controle no décimo mês. A inoculação de apenas um dos microssimbiontes, entretanto, não provocou diferença na produção de biomassa das plantas. A percentagem de colonização micorrízica foi significativamente mais alta e o número de nódulos maior nas raízes das plantas crescidas no solo não autoclavado, ocasionados pela população de fungos e rizóbios nativos. Nesse tratamento, houve pequeno acúmulo de matéria no xilopódio, provavelmente em virtude do dreno fotossintético por parte dos microssimbiontes, e a concentração de P na parte aérea e xilopódio dessas plantas foi cerca de 1,2 e 8 vezes maior, respectivamente, por causa da colonização micorrízica.

Efeito do monocultivo de Pinus e da queima do campo nativo em atributos biológicos do solo no Planalto Sul Catarinense

O presente estudo objetivou avaliar o impacto da queima tradicional de campo nativo e do monocultivo de Pinus sp. em Lages (SC), no CO total do solo (COT), carbono da biomassa microbiana (CBM), respiração basal (C-CO2), quociente metabólico microbiano (qCO2) e relação CBM:COT. Foram selecionadas quatro áreas representativas da região, de 0,5 ha cada, sendo: (a) Campo nativo, sem queima nos últimos 50 anos (CN); (b) Campo nativo submetido à queima tradicional (CNQ), ambas, pastagens naturais; (c) Mata natural com predominância de Araucaria angustifolia (MATA); e (d) Reflorestamento de Pinus taeda com oito anos (PINUS). Para tanto, coletaram-se seis amostras, compostas de nove subamostras de solo em cada área, na profundidade de 0-5 cm, em dezembro de 2002. Para avaliar o CBM, foi utilizado o método da fumigação-extração. O C-CO2 foi determinado em laboratório. Os maiores valores de liberação de C-CO2 foram encontrados na MATA e no PINUS, seguidos de CNQ e CN, respectivamente. Os maiores valores de CBM, COT e relação CBM:COT foram encontrados na MATA, não tendo as demais áreas estudadas apresentado diferenças entre si. O qCO2 foi maior no PINUS, seguido de CNQ, em comparação com MATA e CN. A análise multivariada mostrou ser uma ferramenta auxiliar importante ao discriminar o CBM como sendo o atributo que mais contribuiu na separação entre as áreas estudadas.

The role of population origin and microenvironment in seedling emergence and early survival in Mediterranean maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton).

Understanding tree recruitment is needed to forecast future forest distribution. Many studies have reported the relevant ecological factors that affect recruitment success in trees, but the potential for genetic-based differences in recruitment has often been neglected. In this study, we established a semi-natural reciprocal sowing experiment to test for local adaptation and microenvironment effects (evaluated here by canopy cover) in the emergence and early survival of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton), an emblematic Mediterranean forest tree. A novel application of molecular markers was also developed to test for family selection and, thus, for potential genetic change over generations. Overall, we did not find evidence to support local adaptation at the recruitment stage in our semi-natural experiment. Moreover, only weak family selection (if any) was found, suggesting that in stressful environments with low survival, stochastic processes and among-year climate variability may drive recruitment. Nevertheless, our study revealed that, at early stages of recruitment, microenvironments may favor the population with the best adapted life strategy, irrespectively of its (local or non-local) origin. We also found that emergence time is a key factor for seedling survival in stressful Mediterranean environments. Our study highlights the complexity of the factors influencing the early stages of establishment of maritime pine and provides insights into possible management actions aimed at environmental change impact mitigation. In particular, we found that the high stochasticity of the recruitment process in stressful environments and the differences in population-specific adaptive strategies may difficult assisted migration schemes.