Die Säuglingssterblichkeit in der Schweiz: multivariate Betrachtung. [Perinatal mortality in Switzerland: a multivariate analysis]

A regression analysis using a linked file of all Swiss births und perinatal deaths 1979-1981 showed a significant relation between birthweight and canton. Sex of infant and multiplicity of birth were significant, too. For live births, marital and socio-economic status of mother and father relate to birthweight. Logistic regressions brought out relationships between the risk of stillbirth and occupation of father, nationality and marital status of mother, apart from birthweight. For live births, only sex and (weakly) marital status and rank of the child were influencial after correction for birthweight.

Factors associated with favorable drinking outcome 12 months after hospitalization in a prospective cohort study of inpatients with unhealthy alcohol use.

BACKGROUND: Prevalence of unhealthy alcohol use among medical inpatients is high. OBJECTIVE: To characterize the course and outcomes of unhealthy alcohol use, and factors associated with these outcomes. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 287 medical inpatients with unhealthy alcohol use. MAIN MEASURES: At baseline and 12 months later, consumption and alcohol-related consequences were assessed. The outcome of interest was a favorable drinking outcome at 12 months (abstinence or drinking "moderate" amounts without consequences). The independent variables evaluated included demographics, physical/sexual abuse, drug use, depressive symptoms, alcohol dependence, commitment to change (Taking Action), spending time with heavy-drinking friends and receipt of alcohol treatment (after hospitalization). Adjusted regression models were used to evaluate factors associated with a favorable outcome. KEY RESULTS: Thirty-three percent had a favorable drinking outcome 1 year later. Not spending time with heavy-drinking friends [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.14, 95% CI: 1.14-4.00] and receipt of alcohol treatment [AOR (95% CI): 2.16(1.20-3.87)] were associated with a favorable outcome. Compared to the first quartile (lowest level) of Taking Action, subjects in the second, third and highest quartiles had higher odds of a favorable outcome [AOR (95% CI): 3.65 (1.47, 9.02), 3.39 (1.38, 8.31) and 6.76 (2.74, 16.67)]. CONCLUSIONS: Although most medical inpatients with unhealthy alcohol use continue drinking at-risk amounts and/or have alcohol-related consequences, one third are abstinent or drink "moderate" amounts without consequences 1 year later. Not spending time with heavy-drinking friends, receipt of alcohol treatment and commitment to change are associated with this favorable outcome. This can inform efforts to address unhealthy alcohol use among patients who often do not seek specialty treatment.

Primary spinal epidural lymphoma: patients' profile, outcome, and prognostic factors: a multicenter Rare Cancer Network study

RESUME Objectif : Les lymphomes épiduraux primaires représentent moins de 10% des tumeurs épidurales et de 0,1 à 3,3% de tous les lymphomes. Le but de cette étude a été d'évaluer le profil clinique de cette maladie rare, son traitement, ses résultats ainsi que ses facteurs de pronostic. Matériel et méthode : Entre 1982 et 2002, 52 patients présentant un lymphome épidural primaire ont été traités dans neuf institutions membres du Rare Cancer Network. Les critères d'inclusion comprenaient : une biopsie confirmant le lymphome non-hodgkinien, un stade IE et IIE selon la classification de Ann Arbor, un traitement à visée curative de radiothérapie combinée ou non à une chimiothérapie et un suivi d'au moins six mois. Selon la Working Formulation, 12 patients (23%) présentaient un lymphome de bas grade, 28 (54%) un grade intermédiaire et 12 (23%) un haut grade. Les hommes étaient atteints 1.9 fois plus fréquemment que les femmes. L'âge moyen était de 61 ans (intervalle : 21 à 96). Le bilan incluait un Ct-scan spinal (98%), une IRM (52%), un CT-scan thoraco-abdominal (77%) et une aspiration ou biopsie de moelle osseuse (96%). Les symptômes les plus fréquents comprenaient des douleurs dorsales (79% des patients), une faiblesse musculaire (92%) et des déficits sensoriels (71 %). Quarante-huit patients ont subi une laminectomie de décompression avec résection partielle ou complète (42% et 13% des cas respectivement), tous ont reçu une radiothérapie seule (20 patients) ou en combinaison avec une chimiothérapie (32 patients). La dose médiane totale était de 36 Gy (intervalle 6-50 Gy) avec une moyenne de 20 Gy par fraction (intervalle : 1-25). Le suivi moyen était de 71 mois (intervalle : 22-165 mois). Résultats : Suite au traitement, une progression locale a été observée chez 6 patients après un temps de latence moyen de 6 mois. Le taux de rechute systémique a été de 42% (22 patients) le plus souvent dans les ganglions lymphatiques (n=9) après un intervalle de temps moyen de 20 mois. Lors du dernier contrôle, 28 patients étaient vivants et 24 patients étaient décédés. Le taux de survie à 5 ans, le taux de survie sans maladie et le contrôle local étaient de 69%, 57% et 88% respectivement. En analyse univariée, les facteurs pronostics favorables statistiquement significatifs concernant la survie sans maladie étaient un âge inférieur à 63 ans, ainsi qu'une réponse neurologique complète. Pour la survie à 5 ans, les facteurs favorables étaient un âge inférieur à 63 ans. En analyse multivariée, les facteurs pronostics favorables pour la survie globale à 5 ans étaient une réponse neurologique complète, un traitement combiné, un volume de radiothérapie plus que focal, une dose totale de radiothérapie supérieure à 36 Gy et une résection partielle ou complète de la tumeur. En ce qui concerne la survie sans maladie, les facteurs pronostics favorables étáient un âge inférieur à 63 ans et un traitement combiné. Conclusion : Ce qui ressort de cette analyse est que le bilan diagnostic devrait inclure une IRM ou un CT-scan, un échantillon de tissu pour poser le diagnostic pathologique définitif de la lésion, une histoire médicale et un examen physique complet, une chimie sanguine, un CTscan thoraco-abdominal et une biopsie de la moelle osseuse, un PET-scan devrait également faire partie du bilan. Le traitement devrait consister, dans la phase aiguë, en une chirurgie de décompression avec ou sans résection, suivie d'une radiothérapie d'au moins 36Gy en 2 Gy par fraction et d'une chimiothérapie. Tous les patients présentant un lymphome de haut grade ou de grade intermédiaire devraient pouvoir bénéficier d'un traitement combiné.

Impact of reduced cerebral perfusion pressure on outcome after severe traumatic brain injury is dependent on brain tissue oxygen pressure

INTRODUCTION. Reduced cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP) may worsen secondary damage and outcome after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI), however the optimal management of CPP is still debated. STUDY HYPOTHESIS: We hypothesized that the impact of CPP on outcome is related to brain tissue oxygen tension (PbtO2) level and that reduced CPP may worsen TBI prognosis when it is associated with brain hypoxia. DESIGN. Retrospective analysis of prospective database. METHODS. We analyzed 103 patients with severe TBI who underwent continuous PbtO2 and CPP monitoring for an average of 5 days. For each patient, duration of reduced CPP (\60 mm Hg) and brain hypoxia (PbtO2\15 mm Hg for[30 min [1]) was calculated with linear interpolation method and the relationship between CPP and PbtO2 was analyzed with Pearson's linear correlation coefficient. Outcome at 30 days was assessed with the Glasgow Outcome Score (GOS), dichotomized as good (GOS 4-5) versus poor (GOS 1-3). Multivariable associations with outcome were analyzed with stepwise forward logistic regression. RESULTS. Reduced CPP (n=790 episodes; mean duration 10.2 ± 12.3 h) was observed in 75 (74%) patients and was frequently associated with brain hypoxia (46/75; 61%). Episodes where reduced CPP were associated with normal brain oxygen did not differ significantly between patients with poor versus those with good outcome (8.2 ± 8.3 vs. 6.5 ± 9.7 h; P=0.35). In contrast, time where reduced CPP occurred simultaneously with brain hypoxia was longer in patients with poor than in those with good outcome (3.3±7.4 vs. 0.8±2.3 h; P=0.02). Outcome was significantly worse in patients who had both reduced CPP and brain hypoxia (61% had GOS 1-3 vs. 17% in those with reduced CPP but no brain hypoxia; P\0.01). Patients in whom a positive CPP-PbtO2 correlation (r[0.3) was found also were more likely to have poor outcome (69 vs. 31% in patients with no CPP-PbtO2 correlation; P\0.01). Brain hypoxia was an independent risk factor of poor prognosis (odds ratio for favorable outcome of 0.89 [95% CI 0.79-1.00] per hour spent with a PbtO2\15 mm Hg; P=0.05, adjusted for CPP, age, GCS, Marshall CT and APACHE II). CONCLUSIONS. Low CPP may significantly worsen outcome after severe TBI when it is associated with brain tissue hypoxia. PbtO2-targeted management of CPP may optimize TBI therapy and improve outcome of head-injured patients.

Perinatal arrhythmias.

Cardiac arrhythmias are very frequent in fetuses and newborns. The prognosis depends on the nature of the arrhythmias but is most often either spontaneously benign or following short-term medication administration. A correct diagnosis is essential for both management and prognosis. It is based on echocardiography during the fetal period and mainly on history, physical exam, and electrocardiogram after birth, but other modalities are available to record transient arrhythmic events. Irregular rhythms are mostly benign and rarely require therapy. In most fetuses and infants, tachyarrhythmias resolve spontaneously or require short-term administration of antiarrhythmics. Approximately one third of these may recur later on, especially during adolescence. Persistent bradyarrhythmias might require pacemaker implantation when associated with failure to thrive or with risk of sudden death. CONCLUSION: Arrhythmias in fetuses and infants are very common and mostly benign. History, physical exam, and recording of the arrhythmia are essential to make a correct diagnosis and establish an appropriate management for the rare potentially harmful arrhythmias.

Stroke initial severity and outcome relative to insurance status in a universal health care system in Switzerland

Contexte et but de l'étude :Le statut socio-économique est suspecté d'avoir une influence significative sur l'incidence des attaques cérébrales (AVC), sur les facteurs de risque cardio-vasculaire, ainsi que sur le pronostic. L'influence de ce statut socio-économique sur la sévérité de l'AVC et sur les mécanismes physiopathologiques sous-jacents est moins connue.Méthode :Sur une période de 4 ans, nous avons collecté de manière prospective (dans un registre) des données concernant tous les patients avec AVC aigus admis à l'Unité Cérébrovasculaire du CHUV. Les données comprenaient le statut assécurologique du patient (assurance privée ou générale), les données démographiques, les facteurs de risque cérébrovasculaires, l'utilisation de traitements aigus de recanalisation vasculaire, le délai avant l'admission à l'hôpital, ainsi que la sévérité et le pronostic de l'AVC en phase aiguë, à 7 jours et à 3 mois des symptômes. Les patients avec assurance privée ont été comparés à ceux avec assurance générale.Résultats :Sur 1062 patients avec AVC, 203 avaient une assurance privée et 859 avaient une assurance générale. Il y a avait 585 hommes et 477 femmes. Les deux populations étaient similaires en âge. Les facteurs de risque cardio-vasculaire, la médication préventive, le délai d'arrivée à l'hôpital, l'incidence du taux de thrombolyse et l'étiologie de l'AVC ne différaient pas dans les deux populations. Le score de gravité de l'AVC en phase aiguë, mesuré par le NIHSS, était significativement plus élevé chez les patients avec assurance générale. Un pronostic favorable, mesuré par le score de Rankin modifié (mRS), était plus fréquemment obtenu à 7 jours et à 3 mois chez les patients avec assurance privée.Commentaires :Un statut socio-économique bas est associé à une incidence plus élevée de maladies cérébrovasculaires ainsi qu'à un plus mauvais pronostic, comme cela a été démontré dans différents pays. Il a été suspecté que l'accès à une prise en charge spécialisée en phase aiguë ou en rééducation soit différent selon le statut socio-économique. Comme la Suisse a un système de santé universel, avec une couverture assécurologique obligatoire pour chaque habitant, il y a là une occasion unique de comparer l'influence de l'aspect socio-économique sur la sévérité et le pronostic de l'AVC. De plus, les patients ont été admis dans la même Unité Cérébrovasculaire et pris en charge par la même équipe médicale.Conclusion et perspectives :Le lien entre le statut assécurologique et le statut socio-économique a déjà été prouvé par le passé dans d'autres pays. Nous avons mis en évidence une sévérité plus importante et un plus mauvais pronostic chez les patients avec assurance générale dans la population étudiée. L'étiologie de cette différence dans un système de santé à couverture universelle comme celui de la Suisse reste peu claire. Elle devrait être étudiée à plus grande échelle.

The functional outcome and recovery of patients admitted to an intensive care unit following drug overdose: a follow-up study.

Patients who have overdosed on drugs commonly present to emergency departments, with only the most severe cases requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Such patients typically survive hospitalisation. We studied their longer term functional outcomes and recovery patterns which have not been well described. All patients admitted to the 18-bed ICU of a university-affiliated teaching hospital following drug overdoses between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2006 were identified. With ethical approval, we evaluated the functional outcome and recovery patterns of the surviving patients 31 months after presentation, by telephone or personal interview. These were recorded as Glasgow outcome score, Karnofsky performance index and present work status. During the three years studied, 43 patients were identified as being admitted to our ICU because of an overdose. The average age was 34 years, 72% were male and the mean APACHE II score was 16.7. Of these, 32 were discharged from hospital alive. Follow-up data was attained on all of them. At a median of 31 months follow-up, a further eight had died. Of the 24 surviving there were 13 unemployed, seven employed and four in custody. The median Glasgow outcome score of survivors was 4.5, their Karnofsky score 80. Admission to ICU for treatment of overdose is associated with a very high risk of death in both the short- and long-term. While excellent functional recovery is achievable, 16% of survivors were held in custody and 54% unemployed.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Negative impact of hypocaloric feeding and energy balance on clinical outcome in ICU patients.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Critically ill patients with complicated evolution are frequently hypermetabolic, catabolic, and at risk of underfeeding. The study aimed at assessing the relationship between energy balance and outcome in critically ill patients. METHODS: Prospective observational study conducted in consecutive patients staying > or = 5 days in the surgical ICU of a University hospital. Demographic data, time to feeding, route, energy delivery, and outcome were recorded. Energy balance was calculated as energy delivery minus target. Data in means+/-SD, linear regressions between energy balance and outcome variables. RESULTS: Forty eight patients aged 57+/-16 years were investigated; complete data are available in 669 days. Mechanical ventilation lasted 11+/-8 days, ICU stay 15+/-9 was days, and 30-days mortality was 38%. Time to feeding was 3.1+/-2.2 days. Enteral nutrition was the most frequent route with 433 days. Mean daily energy delivery was 1090+/-930 kcal. Combining enteral and parenteral nutrition achieved highest energy delivery. Cumulated energy balance was between -12,600+/-10,520 kcal, and correlated with complications (P < 0.001), already after 1 week. CONCLUSION: Negative energy balances were correlated with increasing number of complications, particularly infections. Energy debt appears as a promising tool for nutritional follow-up, which should be further tested. Delaying initiation of nutritional support exposes the patients to energy deficits that cannot be compensated later on.

Critical evaluation of outcome scales assessment of lateral ankle ligament reconstruction

Introduction: Les résultats d'une chirurgie du pied et de la cheville peuvent être évalués par des scores spécifiques à la région anatomique ainsi que par des scores spécifiques à la pathologie. Beaucoup de scores existent rendant la comparaison entre les études difficile. La présente étude se focalise sur une pathologie fréquente du pied et de la cheville et compare les résultats obtenu par deux scores spécifiques à la région et deux scores spécifiques à la pathologie. Méthode: Nous avons revu 41 patients ayant bénéficié d'une plastie ligamentaire externe de la cheville. Quatre scores ont été administrés simultanément: the Cumberland Ankle Instability Tool (CAIT) et the Chronic Ankle Instability Scale (CAIS), spécifiques à la pathologie, the American Orthopedic Foot & Ankle Society (AOFAS) hindfoot scale et the Foot and Ankle Ability Measure comprenant deux parties (FAAM1 et FAAM2), spécifiques à la région anatomique. Le degré de corrélation entre les scores a été évalué par le coefficient de corrélation de Pearson. L'analyse graphique des variances a été utilisée pour le choix de tests paramétriques versus non paramétriques. Des tests non paramétriques, le Kruskal-Wallis pour éliminer l'hypothèse nulle et le Mann-Whitney pour la comparaison entre les scores deux à deux, ont été utilisés. Résultats: Une différence significative (p<.005) a été démontrée entre le CAIS et l'AOFAS (p=.0002), entre le CAIS et le FAAM1 (p=.0001) et entre le CAIT et l'AOFAS (p=.0003) Conclusions: Cette étude compare les performances de quatre scores dont deux spécifiques à la région anatomique et deux spécifiques à la pathologie. Nous avons démontré une bonne corrélation entre les scores ainsi que des différences significatives entre les résultats obtenus par chacun d'eux. Les résultats obtenus par les scores spécifiques à la pathologie semblent être plus précis que ceux obtenus par les scores spécifiques à la région anatomique. De plus, nous avons mis en évidence une forte corrélation entre l'AOFAS et les autres scores. Le FAAM semble être un bon compromis car il offre la possibilité, du fait de ses deux parties, d'évaluer le résultat en fonction de la demande fonctionnelle du patient. Perspectives: Un algorithme est proposé qui permet d'évaluer la littérature spécifique de manière plus critique et peut s'adapter également à la recherche et à la clinique relative à d'autres pathologies du pied et de la cheville

Clinical characteristics and outcome of patients admitted to a medico- surgical ICU requiring non invasive ventilation (NIV) for hypercapnic respiratory failure

Introduction Because it decreases intubation rate and mortality, NIV has become first-line treatment in case of hypercapnic acute respiratory failure (HARF). Whether this approach is equally successful for all categories of HARF patients is however debated. We assessed if any clinical characteristics of HARF patients were associated with NIV intensity, success, and outcome, in order to identify prognostic factors. Methods Retrospective analysis of the clinical database (clinical information system and MDSi) of patients consecutively admitted to our medico-surgical ICU, presenting with HARF (defined as PaCO2 > 50 mmHg), and receiving NIV between May 2008 and December 2010. Demographic data, medical diagnoses (including documented chronic lung disease), reason for ICU hospitalization, recent surgical interventions, SAPS II and McCabe scores were extracted from the database. Total duration of NIV and the need for tracheal intubation during the 5 days following the first hypercapnia documentation, as well as ICU, hospital and one year mortality were recorded. Results are reported as median [IQR]. Comparisons were carried out with Chi2 or Kruskal-Wallis tests, p<0.05 (*). Results Two hundred and twenty patients were included. NIV successful patients received 16 [9-31] hours of NIV for up to 5 days. Fifty patients (22.7%) were intubated 11 [2-34] hours after HARF occurence, after having receiving 10 [5-21] hours of NIV. Intubation was correlated with increased ICU (18% vs. 6%, p<0.05) and hospital (42% vs. 31%, p>0.05) mortality. SAPS II score was related to increasing ICU (51 [29-74] vs. 23 [12-41]%, p<0.05), hospital (37% [20-59] vs 20% [12-37], p<0.05) and one year mortality (35% vs 20%, p<0.05). Surgical patients were less frequent among hospital fatalities (28.8% vs. 46.3%, p<0.05, RR 0.8 [0-6-0.9]). Nineteen patients (8.6%) died in the ICU, 73 (33.2%) during their hospital stay and 108 (49.1%) were dead one year after HARF. Conclusion The practice to start NIV in all suitable patients suffering from HARF is appropriate. NIV can safely and appropriately be used in patients suffering from HARF from an origin different from COPD exacerbation. Beside usual predictors of severity such as severity score (SAPS II) appear to be associated with increased mortality. Although ICU mortality was low in our patients, hospital and one year mortality were substantial. Surgical patients, although undergoing a similar ICU course, had a better hospital and one year outcome.

Age Related Outcome in Acute Subdural Haematoma Following Traumatic Head Injury

Acute subdural haematoma (ASDH) is one of the conditions most strongly associated with severe brain injury. Reports prior to 1980 describe overall mortality rates for acute subdural haematomas (SDH's) ranging from 40% to 90% with poor outcomes observed in all age groups. Recently, improved results have been reported with rapid diagnosis and surgical treatment. The elderly are predisposed to bleeding due to normal cerebral atrophy related to aging, stretching the bridging veins from the dura. Prognosis in ASDH is associated with age, time from injury to treatment, presence of pupillary abnormalities, Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) or motor score on admission, immediate coma or lucid interval, computerized tomography findings (haematoma volume, degree of midline shift, associated intradural lesion, compression of basal cisterns), post-operative intracranial pressure and type of surgery. Advancing age is known to be a determinant of outcome in head injury. The authors present the results of a retrospective study carried out in Beaumont Hospital, Dublin, Ireland's national neurosurgical centre. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of age on outcome in patients with ASDH following severe head injury. Only cases with acute subdural haematoma requiring surgical evacuation were recruited.

Body temperature regulation and outcome after cardiac arrest and therapeutic hypothermia.

OBJECTIVE: Therapeutic temperature modulation is recommended after cardiac arrest (CA). However, body temperature (BT) regulation has not been extensively studied in this setting. We investigated BT variation in CA patients treated with therapeutic hypothermia (TH) and analyzed its impact on outcome. METHODS: A prospective cohort of comatose CA patients treated with TH (32-34°C, 24h) at the medical/surgical intensive care unit of the Lausanne University Hospital was studied. Spontaneous BT was recorded on hospital admission. The following variables were measured during and after TH: time to target temperature (TTT=time from hospital admission to induced BT target <34°C), cooling rate (spontaneous BT-induced BT target/TTT) and time of passive rewarming to normothermia. Associations of spontaneous and induced BT with in-hospital mortality were examined. RESULTS: A total of 177 patients (median age 61 years; median time to ROSC 25 min) were studied. Non-survivors (N=90, 51%) had lower spontaneous admission BT than survivors (median 34.5 [interquartile range 33.7-35.9]°C vs. 35.1 [34.4-35.8]°C, p=0.04). Accordingly, time to target temperature was shorter among non-survivors (200 [25-363]min vs. 270 [158-375]min, p=0.03); however, when adjusting for admission BT, cooling rates were comparable between the two outcome groups (0.4 [0.2-0.5]°C/h vs. 0.3 [0.2-0.4]°C/h, p=0.65). Longer duration of passive rewarming (600 [464-744]min vs. 479 [360-600]min, p<0.001) was associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Lower spontaneous admission BT and longer time of passive rewarming were associated with in-hospital mortality after CA and TH. Impaired thermoregulation may be an important physiologic determinant of post-resuscitation disease and CA prognosis. When assessing the benefit of early cooling on outcome, future trials should adjust for patient admission temperature and use the cooling rate rather than the time to target temperature.

Red cell distribution width does not predict stroke severity or functional outcome.

INTRODUCTION: Red cell distribution width was recently identified as a predictor of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in patients with previous stroke. Red cell distribution width is also higher in patients with stroke compared with those without. However, there are no data on the association of red cell distribution width, assessed during the acute phase of ischemic stroke, with stroke severity and functional outcome. In the present study, we sought to investigate this relationship and ascertain the main determinants of red cell distribution width in this population. METHODS: We used data from the Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne for patients between January 2003 and December 2008. Red cell distribution width was generated at admission by the Sysmex XE-2100 automated cell counter from ethylene diamine tetraacetic acid blood samples stored at room temperature until measurement. An χ(2) -test was performed to compare frequencies of categorical variables between different red cell distribution width quartiles, and one-way analysis of variance for continuous variables. The effect of red cell distribution width on severity and functional outcome was investigated in univariate and multivariate robust regression analysis. Level of significance was set at 95%. RESULTS: There were 1504 patients (72±15·76 years, 43·9% females) included in the analysis. Red cell distribution width was significantly associated to NIHSS (β-value=0·24, P=0·01) and functional outcome (odds ratio=10·73 for poor outcome, P<0·001) at univariate analysis but not multivariate. Prehospital Rankin score (β=0·19, P<0·001), serum creatinine (β=0·008, P<0·001), hemoglobin (β=-0·009, P<0·001), mean platelet volume (β=0·09, P<0·05), age (β=0·02, P<0·001), low ejection fraction (β=0·66, P<0·001) and antihypertensive treatment (β=0·32, P<0·001) were independent determinants of red cell distribution width. CONCLUSIONS: Red cell distribution width, assessed during the early phase of acute ischemic stroke, does not predict severity or functional outcome.

Impact of previous virological treatment failures and adherence on the outcome of antiretroviral therapy in 2007.

BACKGROUND: Combination antiretroviral treatment (cART) has been very successful, especially among selected patients in clinical trials. The aim of this study was to describe outcomes of cART on the population level in a large national cohort. METHODS: Characteristics of participants of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study on stable cART at two semiannual visits in 2007 were analyzed with respect to era of treatment initiation, number of previous virologically failed regimens and self reported adherence. Starting ART in the mono/dual era before HIV-1 RNA assays became available was counted as one failed regimen. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for virological failure between the two consecutive visits. RESULTS: Of 4541 patients 31.2% and 68.8% had initiated therapy in the mono/dual and cART era, respectively, and been on treatment for a median of 11.7 vs. 5.7 years. At visit 1 in 2007, the mean number of previous failed regimens was 3.2 vs. 0.5 and the viral load was undetectable (<50 copies/ml) in 84.6% vs. 89.1% of the participants, respectively. Adjusted odds ratios of a detectable viral load at visit 2 for participants from the mono/dual era with a history of 2 and 3, 4, >4 previous failures compared to 1 were 0.9 (95% CI 0.4-1.7), 0.8 (0.4-1.6), 1.6 (0.8-3.2), 3.3 (1.7-6.6) respectively, and 2.3 (1.1-4.8) for >2 missed cART doses during the last month, compared to perfect adherence. From the cART era, odds ratios with a history of 1, 2 and >2 previous failures compared to none were 1.8 (95% CI 1.3-2.5), 2.8 (1.7-4.5) and 7.8 (4.5-13.5), respectively, and 2.8 (1.6-4.8) for >2 missed cART doses during the last month, compared to perfect adherence. CONCLUSIONS: A higher number of previous virologically failed regimens, and imperfect adherence to therapy were independent predictors of imminent virological failure.