Use of GRADE for assessment of evidence about prognosis : rating confidence in estimates of event rates in broad categories of patients.

Main concepts : The Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach defines quality of evidence as confidence in effect estimates; this conceptualization can readily be applied to bodies of evidence estimating the risk of future of events (that is, prognosis) in broadly defined populations In the field of prognosis, a body of observational evidence (including single arms of randomized controlled trials) begins as high quality evidence. The five domains GRADE considers in rating down confidence in estimates of treatment effect-that is, risk of bias, imprecision, inconsistency, indirectness, and publication bias-as well as the GRADE criteria for rating up quality, also apply to estimates of the risk of future of events from a body of prognostic studies Applying these concepts to systematic reviews of prognostic studies provides a ful approach to determine confidence in estimates of overall prognosis in broad populations.

Pointwise estimates for the Bergman kernel of the weighted Fock space

We prove upper pointwise estimates for the Bergman kernel of the weighted Fock space of entire functions in $L^{2}(e^{-2\phi}) $ where $\phi$ is a subharmonic function with $\Delta\phi$ a doubling measure. We derive estimates for the canonical solution operator to the inhomogeneous Cauchy-Riemann equation and we characterize the compactness of this operator in terms of $\Delta\phi$.

Robust Estimates of the Negative Binomial Model

We consider robust parametric procedures for univariate discrete distributions, focusing on the negative binomial model. The procedures are based on three steps: ?First, a very robust, but possibly inefficient, estimate of the model parameters is computed. ?Second, this initial model is used to identify outliers, which are then removed from the sample. ?Third, a corrected maximum likelihood estimator is computed with the remaining observations. The final estimate inherits the breakdown point (bdp) of the initial one and its efficiency can be significantly higher. Analogous procedures were proposed in [1], [2], [5] for the continuous case. A comparison of the asymptotic bias of various estimates under point contamination points out the minimum Neyman's chi-squared disparity estimate as a good choice for the initial step. Various minimum disparity estimators were explored by Lindsay [4], who showed that the minimum Neyman's chi-squared estimate has a 50% bdp under point contamination; in addition, it is asymptotically fully efficient at the model. However, the finite sample efficiency of this estimate under the uncontaminated negative binomial model is usually much lower than 100% and the bias can be strong. We show that its performance can then be greatly improved using the three step procedure outlined above. In addition, we compare the final estimate with the procedure described in

Dysregulated ADAM10-Mediated Processing of APP during a Critical Time Window Leads to Synaptic Deficits in Fragile X Syndrome.

The Fragile X mental retardation protein (FMRP) regulates neuronal RNA metabolism, and its absence or mutations leads to the Fragile X syndrome (FXS). The β-amyloid precursor protein (APP) is involved in Alzheimer's disease, plays a role in synapse formation, and is upregulated in intellectual disabilities. Here, we show that during mouse synaptogenesis and in human FXS fibroblasts, a dual dysregulation of APP and the α-secretase ADAM10 leads to the production of an excess of soluble APPα (sAPPα). In FXS, sAPPα signals through the metabotropic receptor that, activating the MAP kinase pathway, leads to synaptic and behavioral deficits. Modulation of ADAM10 activity in FXS reduces sAPPα levels, restoring translational control, synaptic morphology, and behavioral plasticity. Thus, proper control of ADAM10-mediated APP processing during a specific developmental postnatal stage is crucial for healthy spine formation and function(s). Downregulation of ADAM10 activity at synapses may be an effective strategy for ameliorating FXS phenotypes.

Decreasing Proportion of Recent Infections among Newly Diagnosed HIV-1 Cases in Switzerland, 2008 to 2013 Based on Line-Immunoassay-Based Algorithms.

BACKGROUND: HIV surveillance requires monitoring of new HIV diagnoses and differentiation of incident and older infections. In 2008, Switzerland implemented a system for monitoring incident HIV infections based on the results of a line immunoassay (Inno-Lia) mandatorily conducted for HIV confirmation and type differentiation (HIV-1, HIV-2) of all newly diagnosed patients. Based on this system, we assessed the proportion of incident HIV infection among newly diagnosed cases in Switzerland during 2008-2013. METHODS AND RESULTS: Inno-Lia antibody reaction patterns recorded in anonymous HIV notifications to the federal health authority were classified by 10 published algorithms into incident (up to 12 months) or older infections. Utilizing these data, annual incident infection estimates were obtained in two ways, (i) based on the diagnostic performance of the algorithms and utilizing the relationship 'incident = true incident + false incident', (ii) based on the window-periods of the algorithms and utilizing the relationship 'Prevalence = Incidence x Duration'. From 2008-2013, 3'851 HIV notifications were received. Adult HIV-1 infections amounted to 3'809 cases, and 3'636 of them (95.5%) contained Inno-Lia data. Incident infection totals calculated were similar for the performance- and window-based methods, amounting on average to 1'755 (95% confidence interval, 1588-1923) and 1'790 cases (95% CI, 1679-1900), respectively. More than half of these were among men who had sex with men. Both methods showed a continuous decline of annual incident infections 2008-2013, totaling -59.5% and -50.2%, respectively. The decline of incident infections continued even in 2012, when a 15% increase in HIV notifications had been observed. This increase was entirely due to older infections. Overall declines 2008-2013 were of similar extent among the major transmission groups. CONCLUSIONS: Inno-Lia based incident HIV-1 infection surveillance proved useful and reliable. It represents a free, additional public health benefit of the use of this relatively costly test for HIV confirmation and type differentiation.

Microscopic, chemical, and molecular-biological investigation of the decayed medieval stained window glasses of two Catalonian churches

We investigated the decayed historical church window glasses of two Catalonian churches, both under Mediterranean climate. Glass surfaces were studied by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy dispersive spectrometry (EDS), and X-ray diffraction (XRD). Their chemical composition was determined by avelength-dispersive spectrometry (WDS) microprobe analysis. The biodiversity was investigated by molecular methods: DNA extraction from glass, amplification by PCR targeting the16S rRNA and ITS regions, and fingerprint analyses by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE). Clone libraries containing either PCR fragments of the bacterial 16S rDNA or the fungal ITS regions were screened by DGGE. Clone inserts were sequenced and compared with the EMBL database.

Beurling-Landau densities of weighted Fekete sets and correlation kernel estimates

Let $Q$ be a suitable real function on $C$. An $n$-Fekete set corresponding to $Q$ is a subset ${Z_{n1}},\dotsb, Z_{nn}}$ of $C$ which maximizes the expression $\Pi^n_i_{

Continuous quantification of HER2 expression by microfluidic precision immunofluorescence estimates HER2 gene amplification in breast cancer.

Chromogenic immunohistochemistry (IHC) is omnipresent in cancer diagnosis, but has also been criticized for its technical limit in quantifying the level of protein expression on tissue sections, thus potentially masking clinically relevant data. Shifting from qualitative to quantitative, immunofluorescence (IF) has recently gained attention, yet the question of how precisely IF can quantify antigen expression remains unanswered, regarding in particular its technical limitations and applicability to multiple markers. Here we introduce microfluidic precision IF, which accurately quantifies the target expression level in a continuous scale based on microfluidic IF staining of standard tissue sections and low-complexity automated image analysis. We show that the level of HER2 protein expression, as continuously quantified using microfluidic precision IF in 25 breast cancer cases, including several cases with equivocal IHC result, can predict the number of HER2 gene copies as assessed by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). Finally, we demonstrate that the working principle of this technology is not restricted to HER2 but can be extended to other biomarkers. We anticipate that our method has the potential of providing automated, fast and high-quality quantitative in situ biomarker data using low-cost immunofluorescence assays, as increasingly required in the era of individually tailored cancer therapy.

Equating accelerometer estimates among youth: The Rosetta Stone 2.

OBJECTIVES: Different accelerometer cutpoints used by different researchers often yields vastly different estimates of moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA). This is recognized as cutpoint non-equivalence (CNE), which reduces the ability to accurately compare youth MVPA across studies. The objective of this research is to develop a cutpoint conversion system that standardizes minutes of MVPA for six different sets of published cutpoints. DESIGN: Secondary data analysis. METHODS: Data from the International Children's Accelerometer Database (ICAD; Spring 2014) consisting of 43,112 Actigraph accelerometer data files from 21 worldwide studies (children 3-18 years, 61.5% female) were used to develop prediction equations for six sets of published cutpoints. Linear and non-linear modeling, using a leave one out cross-validation technique, was employed to develop equations to convert MVPA from one set of cutpoints into another. Bland Altman plots illustrate the agreement between actual MVPA and predicted MVPA values. RESULTS: Across the total sample, mean MVPA ranged from 29.7MVPAmind(-1) (Puyau) to 126.1MVPAmind(-1) (Freedson 3 METs). Across conversion equations, median absolute percent error was 12.6% (range: 1.3 to 30.1) and the proportion of variance explained ranged from 66.7% to 99.8%. Mean difference for the best performing prediction equation (VC from EV) was -0.110mind(-1) (limits of agreement (LOA), -2.623 to 2.402). The mean difference for the worst performing prediction equation (FR3 from PY) was 34.76mind(-1) (LOA, -60.392 to 129.910). CONCLUSIONS: For six different sets of published cutpoints, the use of this equating system can assist individuals attempting to synthesize the growing body of literature on Actigraph, accelerometry-derived MVPA.

Paperboard cup with a window

Packaging has to fulfill a lot of demands and the main purpose is to be able to protect the foodstuff packed inside. Typically requirements set on packaging materials reflect the consumer needs. Based on the consumer studies the importance of product visibility is considered as an important property among consumers. However, making the package more transparent the actual shelf life of the product might be reduced. It might have an effect on sensitive foods which contain ingredients vulnerable to light and start to deteriorate more rapidly. The aim for this Masters of Science Thesis was to develop a paperboard cup with a plastic window where different kind of fatty/dry foodstuffs could be stored. The main target was to be able to create an instruction manual how this kind of cup with a window had to be produced without decreasing air tightness and other barrier properties of cupboard material used as a base board. The focus in this work was on designing a shape of the window and finding critical limits for the size, shape and location of the window in the final paperboard cup. Windows were made by cutting holes with different sizes and shapes to different places in the cup blank by using a model cutter. For the windows one plastic film type was selected due to its low oxygen and water vapour transmission properties. The window film was attached to the cup blank by using hot bar and laser seaming methods. Cup manufacturing was done at Stora Enso InnoCentre, Imatra. As a result critical limits for the place, size and shape of the window could be found. The sealing method had a significant effect on the tightness of the cups. Windows didn’t decrease the grip stiffness of the cup. The cup itself gave better light protection than the plastic film used in the windows. The bigger the window, the less the cup could protect the possible foodstuff. Bursting strength was lower in the windows compared to the cup material itself. From environmental point of view DSD licence fees have to be paid due to the amount of used plastic.When using bigger windows the ratio of plastic to fibres increase. This would raise the DSD fee. However, the amount of material is overall reduced which lowers the fee.

Canopy openness and lai estimates in two seasonally deciduous forests on limestone outcrops in central Brazil using hemispherical photographs

Patches of seasonally dry tropical forests occur on limestone outcrops in Central Brazil surrounded by the dominant savanna vegetation. They contain valuable timber species but are threatened by farming and mining activities. The objective of this study was to describe canopy opening and light relations in two seasonally deciduous dry forests on slopes and limestone outcrops, in the Paranã valley at the northeastern region of the Goiás state, Brazil. The studied forests were in the Fazenda Sabonete in Iaciara-Go and Fazenda Forquilha in Guarani-GO. Woody plants were sampled in 25 (20 x 20 m) plots in each forest. In the Sabonete forest 40 species, 705 ind./ha-1 with a basal area of 15.78 m²/ha-1 were found, while in Forquilha there were 55 species, 956 ind./ha-1 with a basal area of 24.76 m²/ha-1. Using hemispherical photographic techniques, 25 black and white photographs were taken at each site, during the dry season, totaling 50 photographs. These were taken at the beginning of each vegetation-sampling plot. The photographs were scanned in grey tones and saved as 'Bitmap'. The canopy opening and leaf area index (LAI) were calculated using the software Winphot. The mean canopy opening was 54.0% (±9.36) for Fazenda Sabonete and 64.6% (±11.8) in Fazenda Forquilha, with both sites presenting significant differences in the opening estimates (P < 0.05). Their floristic richness and structure also differed with the more open canopy forest, Forquilha, being richer and denser, suggesting the need for further studies on species-environment relationships in these forests.

Relationships and estimates of longitudinal growth stress in Eucalyptus dunnii at different ages

The objective of this study was to obtain estimates of longitudinal growth stresses in standing trees of the Eucalyptus dunnii Maiden at eight, thirteen, fifteen and nineteen years of age and to determine their relationships with wood characteristics. The longitudinal growth stresses were indirectly measured by the "CIRAD-Forêt" method and estimated from both the dynamic modulus of elasticity and the modulus of elasticity in tension parallel to the grain. The longitudinal residual strain (LRS) and the estimates of the longitudinal growth stresses tended to increase with the age of the material. The LRS correlated positively and significantly with all the growth stresses estimates. The largestes magnitudes were at 13, 15 and 19 years of age. The basic density presented high, positive and significant correlations with the dynamic modulus of elasticity, estimated in the longitudinal direction, for wood saturated and at 12% moisture content, for all the ages assessed. All the growth stresses estimates presented high, positive and significant correlations between themselves.

ABOVEGROUND AND BELOWGROUND BIOMASS AND CARBON ESTIMATES FOR CLONAL EUCALYPTUS TREES IN SOUTHEAST BRAZIL

Eucalyptus plantations represent a short term and cost efficient alternative for sequestrating carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Despite the known potential of forest plantations of fast growing species to store carbon in the biomass, there are relatively few studies including precise estimates of the amount of carbon in these plantations. In this study it was determined the carbon content in the stems, branches, leaves and roots of a clonal Eucalyptus grandis plantation in the Southeast of Brazil. We developed allometric equations to estimate the total amount of carbon and total biomass, and produced an estimate of the carbon stock in the stand level. Altogether, 23 sample trees were selected for aboveground biomass assessment. The roots of 9 of the 23 sampled trees were partially excavated to assess the belowground biomass at a singletree level. Two models with DBH, H and DBH2H were tested. The average relative share of carbon content in the stem, branch, leaf and root compartments was 44.6%, 43.0%, 46.1% and 37.8%, respectively, which is smaller than the generic value commonly used (50%). The best-fit allometric equations to estimate the total amount of carbon and total biomass had DBH2H as independent variable. The root-to-shoot ratio was relatively stable (C.V. = 27.5%) probably because the sub-sample was composed of clones. Total stand carbon stock in the Eucalyptus plantation was estimated to be 73.38 MgC ha-1, which is within the carbon stock range for Eucalyptus plantations.