Hospital trends of admissions and procedures for acute leg ischaemia in England, 2000-2011.

INTRODUCTION Acute leg ischaemia (ALI) is a common vascular emergency for which new minimally invasive treatment options were introduced in the 1990s. The aim of this study was to determine recent hospital trends for ALI in England and to assess whether the introduction of the new treatment modalities had affected management. METHODS Routine hospital data covering ALI were provided by Hospital Episode Statistics for the years 2000 to 2011 and mortality data were obtained from the Office for National Statistics. All data were age standardised, reported per 100,000 of the population, and stratified by age band (60-74 years and ≥75 years) and sex. RESULTS Hospital admissions have risen significantly from 60.3 to 94.3 per 100,000 of the population, with an average annual increase of 6.2% since 2003 (p<0.001). The rise was greater in the older age group (from 79.9 to 134.4 vs 49.3 to 73.0) and yet procedures for ALI have shown a significant decrease since 2000 from 14.3 to 12.4 per 100,000 (p=0.013), independent of age and sex. Open embolectomy of the femoral artery remains the most common procedure and the proportion of endovascular interventions showed only a small increase. Only a few deaths were attributed to ALI (range: 95-150 deaths per year). CONCLUSIONS Hospital workload for ALI has increased, particularly since 2003, but this trend does not appear to have translated into increased endovascular or surgical activity.

Breast cancer in younger women in Switzerland 1996-2009: A longitudinal population-based study.

BACKGROUND Breast cancer (BC) is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and a leading cause of death in younger women. METHODS We analysed incidence, mortality and relative survival (RS) in women with BC aged 20-49 years at diagnosis, between 1996 and 2009 in Switzerland. Trends are reported as estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). RESULTS Our findings confirm a slight increase in the incidence of BC in younger Swiss women during the period 1996-2009. The increase was largest in women aged 20-39 years (EAPC 1.8%). Mortality decreased in both age groups with similar EAPCs. Survival was lowest among women 20-39 years (10-year RS 73.4%). We observed no notable differences in stage of disease at diagnosis that might explain these differences. CONCLUSIONS The increased incidence and lower survival in younger women diagnosed with BC in Switzerland indicates possible differences in risk factors, tumour biology and treatment characteristics that require additional examination.

Time-trends in assisted and unassisted suicides completed with different methods: Swiss National Cohort.

OBJECTIVE The number of suicides assisted by right-to-die associations has increased in recent years in Switzerland. The aim of our study was to compare time trends in rates of assisted and unassisted suicide from 1991-2008. METHODS The Swiss National Cohort is a longitudinal study of mortality in the Swiss population; based on linkage of census data with mortality records up to 2008. The Federal Statistical Office coded suspected assisted suicides from 1998 onwards; and from 2003 onwards right-to-die associations reported the suicides they assisted. We used Poisson regression to analyse trends in rates of suicide per 100'000 person-years, by gender and age groups (15-34, 35-64, 65-94 years). RESULTS A total of 7'940'297 individuals and 24'842 suicides were included. In women, rates changed little in the younger age groups but increased in 65-94-year-olds, due to an increase in suicide by poisoning (from 5.1 to 17.2 per 100'000; p <0.001). An increase in suicides by poisoning was also observed in older men (from 8.6 to 18.2; p<0.001). Most suicides by poisoning were assisted. In men, suicide rates declined in all age groups, driven by declines in suicide with firearms. CONCLUSIONS Research is needed to gain a better understanding of the reasons for the tripling of assisted suicide rates in older women, and the doubling of rates in older men, of attitudes and vulnerabilities of those choosing assisted suicide, and of access to palliative care. Rates of assisted suicide should be monitored; including data on patient characteristics and underlying comorbidities.

Time trends in avoidable cancer mortality in Switzerland and neighbouring European countries 1996-2010.

QUESTION UNDER STUDY What are the trends in avoidable cancer mortality in Switzerland and neighbouring countries? METHODS Mortality data and population estimates 1996-2010 were obtained from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office for Switzerland and the World Health Organization Mortality Database (http://www.who.int/healthinfo/mortality_data/en/) for Austria, Germany, France and Italy. Age standardised mortality rates (ASMRs, European standard) per 100 000 person-years were calculated for the population <75 years old by sex for the following groups of cancer deaths: (1) avoidable through primary prevention; (2) avoidable through early detection and treatment; (3) avoidable through improved treatment and medical care; and (4) remaining cancer deaths. To assess time trends in ASMRs, estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated. RESULTS In Switzerland and neighbouring countries cancer mortality in persons <75 years old continuously decreased 1996-2010. Avoidable cancer mortality decreased in all groups of avoidable cancer deaths in both sexes, with one exception. ASMRs for causes avoidable through primary prevention increased in females in all countries (in Switzerland from 16.2 to 20.3 per 100 000 person years, EAPC 2.0 [95% CI 1.4 to 2.6]). Compared with its neighbouring countries, Switzerland showed the lowest rates for all groups of avoidable cancer mortality in males 2008-2010. CONCLUSION Overall avoidable cancer mortality decreased, indicating achievements in cancer care and related health policies. However, increasing trends in avoidable cancer mortality through primary prevention for females suggest there is a need in Switzerland and its European neighbouring countries to improve primary prevention.

Trends in incidence of oesophageal and gastric cancer according to morphology and anatomical location, in Switzerland 1982-2011.

QUESTION UNDER STUDY/PRINCIPLES This study aimed to evaluate trends in the incidence of oesophageal and gastric cancer by anatomical location and histology using nationally representative Swiss data. METHODS We included all oesophageal and gastric cancers recorded in 10 Swiss population-based cancer registries 1982-2011. We calculated age-standardised incidence rates (ASIRs) per 100 000 person-years (PY) (European standard) for both cancer sites stratified by sex, language region (German, French-Italian), morphology and anatomical location. To assess time trends, we estimated annual percentage changes (APCs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). RESULTS ASIR of oesophageal adenocarcinoma increased in both sexes and language regions (p <0.001). The steepest increase occurred in males of the German-speaking region (APC 6.8%, 95% CI 5.8-7.8) with ASIRs of 0.8 per 100,000 PY in 1982-1987 and 3.9 per 100.000 PY in 2007-2011. Incidence of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma decreased significantly in males of both language regions by around -1.5% per year. In contrast, a slight but significant increase (APC 1.4%, 95% CI 0.3-2.4]) of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma was observed in females of the German-speaking region. We observed stable rates for cancer of the gastric cardia. The incidence of noncardia gastric cancer decreased substantially in both sexes and language regions (p <0.001). CONCLUSION In Switzerland, the incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma has risen whereas incidence of noncardia gastric cancer has decreased substantially as observed in other developed countries.

Trends in anti-tuberculosis drug resistance from 2003--2007 at Pham Ngoc Thach tuberculosis and lung disease hospital, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Vietnam is one of the countries with the highest prevalence and incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in the world (1). Although Vietnam has had many successes in TB control, it still faces the challenge of drug resistant and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). MDR-TB appears to be relatively stable, but data on MDR-TB continues to be scarce and routine testing of all isolates for drug susceptibility is not performed under Vietnam's National Tuberculosis Program (6). Pham Ngoc Thach Hospital (PNT), the leading tuberculosis and lung disease hospital in Ho Chi Minh City, serves as a reference hospital and laboratory for both Ho Chi Minh City and the Southern Vietnam region. This study is an unmatched, nested case-control study consisting of a secondary analysis of a previously created dataset composed of drug susceptibility and basic demographic data from a cohort of patients diagnosed with tuberculosis at PNT from 2003 through 2007 in order to calculate the prevalence of resistance among acid-fast bacilli smear-positive patients. The susceptibility records for the years 2003-2004 were not representative of the entire population, but over the years 2005-2007 the investigator found a decrease in resistance to all primary TB drugs on which records were available, as well as MDR-TB. Overall, females showed a higher proportion of resistance to TB drugs than males, and females had a greater likelihood of presenting with MDR-TB than males (OR=1.77). Persons 35-54 had greater likelihood of having MDR-TB than younger and older age groups. Among the population with HIV data, HIV-positivity was associated with greater likelihood of MDR-TB (OR=1.70, 95% CI=0.97-3.11). This study shows that rates of TB drug resistance are high, but declining, in one of Vietnam's largest TB hospitals, and that females and HIV-positive individuals are possible high-risk groups in this population.^

Racial/ethnic disparities in colorectal cancer screening and survival in a large nationwide population-based cohort

Background. Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most commonly diagnosed cancer (excluding skin cancer) in both men and women in the United States, with an estimated 148,810 new cases and 49,960 deaths in 2008 (1). Racial/ethnic disparities have been reported across the CRC care continuum. Studies have documented racial/ethnic disparities in CRC screening (2-9), but only a few studies have looked at these differences in CRC screening over time (9-11). No studies have compared these trends in a population with CRC and without cancer. Additionally, although there is evidence suggesting that hospital factors (e.g. teaching hospital status and NCI designation) are associated with CRC survival (12-16), no studies have sought to explain the racial/ethnic differences in survival by looking at differences in socio-demographics, tumor characteristics, screening, co-morbidities, treatment, as well as hospital characteristics. ^ Objectives and Methods. The overall goals of this dissertation were to describe the patterns and trends of racial/ethnic disparities in CRC screening (i.e. fecal occult blood test (FOBT), sigmoidoscopy (SIG) and colonoscopy (COL)) and to determine if racial/ethnic disparities in CRC survival are explained by differences in socio-demographic, tumor characteristics, screening, co-morbidities, treatment, and hospital factors. These goals were accomplished in a two-paper format.^ In Paper 1, "Racial/Ethnic Disparities and Trends in Colorectal Cancer Screening in Medicare Beneficiaries with Colorectal Cancer and without Cancer in SEER Areas, 1992-2002", the study population consisted of 50,186 Medicare beneficiaries diagnosed with CRC from 1992 to 2002 and 62,917 Medicare beneficiaries without cancer during the same time period. Both cohorts were aged 67 to 89 years and resided in 16 Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) regions of the United States. Screening procedures between 6 months and 3 years prior to the date of diagnosis for CRC patients and prior to the index date for persons without cancer were identified in Medicare claims. The crude and age-gender-adjusted percentages and odds ratios of receiving FOBT, SIG, or COL were calculated. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess race/ethnicity on the odds of receiving CRC screening over time.^ Paper 2, "Racial/Ethnic Disparities in Colorectal Cancer Survival: To what extent are racial/ethnic disparities in survival explained by racial differences in socio-demographics, screening, co-morbidities, treatment, tumor or hospital characteristics", included a cohort of 50,186 Medicare beneficiaries diagnosed with CRC from 1992 to 2002 and residing in 16 SEER regions of the United States which were identified in the SEER-Medicare linked database. Survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of mortality and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI).^ Results. The screening analysis demonstrated racial/ethnic disparities in screening over time among the cohort without cancer. From 1992 to 1995, Blacks and Hispanics were less likely than Whites to receive FOBT (OR=0.75, 95% CI: 0.65-0.87; OR=0.50, 95% CI: 0.34-0.72, respectively) but their odds of screening increased from 2000 to 2002 (OR=0.79, 95% CI: 0.72-0.85; OR=0.67, 95% CI: 0.54-0.75, respectively). Blacks and Hispanics were less likely than Whites to receive SIG from 1992 to 1995 (OR=0.75, 95% CI: 0.57-0.98; OR=0.29, 95% CI: 0.12-0.71, respectively), but their odds of screening increased from 2000 to 2002 (OR=0.79, 95% CI: 0.68-0.93; OR=0.50, 95% CI: 0.35-0.72, respectively).^ The survival analysis showed that Blacks had worse CRC-specific survival than Whites (HR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.23-1.44), but this was reduced for stages I-III disease after full adjustment for socio-demographic, tumor characteristics, screening, co-morbidities, treatment and hospital characteristics (aHR=1.24, 95% CI: 1.14-1.35). Socioeconomic status, tumor characteristics, treatment and co-morbidities contributed to the reduction in hazard ratios between Blacks and Whites with stage I-III disease. Asians had better survival than Whites before (HR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.64-0.82) and after (aHR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.70-0.92) adjusting for all predictors for stage I-III disease. For stage IV, both Asians and Hispanics had better survival than Whites, and after full adjustment, survival improved (aHR=0.73, 95% CI: 0.63-0.84; aHR=0.74, 95% CI: 0.61-0.92, respectively).^ Conclusion. Screening disparities remain between Blacks and Whites, and Hispanics and Whites, but have decreased in recent years. Future studies should explore other factors that may contribute to screening disparities, such as physician recommendations and language/cultural barriers in this and younger populations.^ There were substantial racial/ethnic differences in CRC survival among older Whites, Blacks, Asians and Hispanics. Co-morbidities, SES, tumor characteristics, treatment and other predictor variables contributed to, but did not fully explain the CRC survival differences between Blacks and Whites. Future research should examine the role of quality of care, particularly the benefit of treatment and post-treatment surveillance, in racial disparities in survival.^

Gender differences in colorectal cancer screening and incidence in large nationwide, population-based cohorts

Background. A few studies have reported gender differences along the colorectal cancer (CRC) continuum but none has done so longitudinally to compare a cancer and a non-cancer populations.^ Objectives and Methods. To examine gender differences in colorectal cancer screening (CRCS); to examine trends in gender differences in CRC screening among two groups of patients (Medicare beneficiaries with and without cancer); to examine gender differences in CRC incidence; and to examine for any differences over time. In Paper 1, the study population consisted of men and women, ages 67–89 years, with CRC (73,666) or without any cancer (39,006), residing in 12 U.S. Surveillance Epidemiology and End-Results (SEER) regions. Crude and age-adjusted percentages and odds ratios of receiving fecal occult blood test (FOBT), sigmoidoscopy (SIG), or colonoscopy (COL) were calculated. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess gender on the odds of receiving CRC screening over time.^ In Paper 2, age-adjusted incidence rates and proportions over time were reported across race, CRC subsite, CRC stage and SEER region for 373,956 patients, ages 40+ years, residing in 9 SEER regions and diagnosed with malignant CRC. ^ Results. Overall, women had higher CRC screening rates than men and screening rates in general were higher in the SEER sample of persons with CRC diagnosis. Significant temporal divergence in FOBT screening was observed between men and women in both cohorts. Although the largest temporal increases in screening rates were found for COL, especially among the cohort with CRC, little change in the gender gap was observed over time. Receipt of FOBT was significantly associated with female gender especially in the period of full Medicare coverage. Receipt of COL was also significantly associated with male gender, especially in the period of limited Medicare coverage.^ Overall, approximately equal numbers of men (187,973) and women (185,983) were diagnosed with malignant CRC. Men had significantly higher age-adjusted CRC incidence rates than women across all categories of age, race, subsite, stage and SEER region even though rates declined in all categories over time. Significant moderate increases in rate difference occurred among 40-59 year olds; significant reductions occurred among patients age 70+, within subsite rectum, unstaged and distant stage CRC, and eastern and western SEER regions. ^ Conclusions. Persistent gender differences in CRC incidence across time may have implications for gender-based interventions that take age into consideration. A shift toward proximal cancer was observed over time for both genders, but the high proportion of men who develop rectal cancer suggests that a greater proportion of men may need to be targeted with newer screening methods such as fecal DNA or COL. Although previous reports have documented higher CRC screening among men, higher incidence of CRC observed among men suggests that higher risk categories of men are probably not being reached. FOBT utilization rates among women have increased over time and the gender gap has widened between 1998 and 2005. COL utilization is associated with male gender but the differences over time are small.^

Relationship between parental feeding practices and weight status in a lower socioeconomic pre-school population

High prevalence of overweight and obesity among preschool children in the low income population is consistently documented in research with one of every seven low-income, preschool-aged children classified as obese. Parental feeding practices have the potential to be contributing factors to the obesity epidemic. However, the impact of parental feeding practices on obesity in preschool age children has not been well explored. The purpose of this study was to determine relationships between the parental feeding practices of using dessert, sweets or candy as a reward for finishing foods, restricting dessert if the child does not finish their plate at dinner, asking the child to consume everything on their plate at dinner, and having family dinners to obesity in low income, preschool age children.^ A cross-sectional secondary data analysis was completed using the STATA 11 statistical software. Descriptive statistics were completed to summarize demographic and BMI data of participants, as well as parental feeding behavior variables. Pearson’s correlation was implemented to determine a correlation between parental feeding behavior variables and BMI z scores. Predictive relationships between the variables were explored through multivariable linear regression analysis. Regression analyses were also completed factoring in the confounders of gender, age, and ethnicity.^ Results revealed (1) no significant correlations or predictive trends between the use of rewards, forced consumption, or family dinner and BMI in low income preschool age children, and (2) a significant negative correlation and predictive trend between restriction of desserts and BMI in low income preschool age children. Since the analysis supported the null hypothesis for the practices of reward use, forced consumption, and family dinner, these practices are not considered risk factors for obese level BMIs. The inverse association found for practice of restriction and BMI suggests it is unnecessary to discourage parents from using restriction. Limitations of the study included the sample size, reliability of the answers provided on the Healthy Home Survey by participant guardians, and generalizability of the sample to the larger population.^

Epidemiological trends of influenza A positive patients hospitalized at St. Luke's Episcopal Hospital, Houston, Texas September, 2009--January, 2010

This study was a descriptive analysis of 437 influenza A positive inpatients and outpatients during the five month period between September, 2009 and January, 2010. The objective of the study was to describe the epidemiological trends of the total influenza A positive population and more specifically the clinical features of patients hospitalized with influenza A at St. Luke's Episcopal Hospital in Houston, Texas from September 2009 through January 2010. Eligible cases were included if they tested positive for influenza A test using the rapid antigen test and/or rRT-PCR. Hospitalized cases were included based on the laboratory confirmation of influenza A as well as hospital admission for at least 24 hours. Data was collected from medical record abstraction and included patient demographics, clinical history and history of chronic disease. Clinical findings in the differential diagnosis that led to laboratory-confirmation of influenza A as well as course of treatment during the hospital admission were summarized. Finally, co-morbid conditions charted during the hospital visit were reviewed and evaluated for associations with influenza A complications. During the study period, forty-eight patients were included in the study of which 27 tested positive for the H1N1 subtype. Females were more likely to be hospitalized than men. The median age of all patients admitted to St. Luke's Episcopal Hospital with influenza A was 42. The distribution for admitted cases was 15 White, 15 Black, and 18 Hispanic. Patients with co-morbid disease constituted 81% of the admissions for Influenza A. The presence of an underlying medical condition remains a risk factor for both seasonal and H1N1 influenza. Although respiratory conditions such as asthma and COPD are commonly associated with complications of seasonal influenza, patients with metabolic disorders such as kidney disease and/or diabetes were admitted more frequently (58%) during the study period. The patients in the study also of a much younger age than the age that is usually associated with complications of influenza infection, i.e. no patients greater than 65 years of age were admitted with a diagnosis of influenza A. Lower infection rates among elderly populations were similarly reported in other studies of influenza during the same time period. Older patient populations may benefit from antibodies to previous H1N1 strains that have circulated during the twentieth century, whereas younger age groups lack these exposures.^

Prevalence and trends of substance abuse in Harris County, Texas, 1989 to 1991

In the late 1980s, Harris County, Texas began experiencing an escalation of drug-related activities. Various indicators used in this analysis tracked drug-related trends from 1989 to 1991 to determine patterns for comparison of local (Houston/Harris County, Texas) to national levels.^ An important indicator of the drug scenario was drug-related activities among youths, which increased during the period of this study. The Harris County Juvenile Probation Department showed that among arrests for drug-related activities, felonies increased from 25% in 1988 to 53% in 1991. With the rise in drug-related crimes, and substance abuse among the student body, school districts were forced to institute drug education programs in an effort to curtail such activities.^ Law enforcement agencies in the county saw increased demands for their services as a result of drug activities. Harris County Sheriffs Department reported a 32% plus increase in drug-related charges between 1986 and 1991. Houston Police Department reported an increase of 109% for the same period.^ Data from the Harris County Medical Examiner, the National Institute of Justice's Drug Use Forecasting System (Houston), and drug treatment facilities around Houston/Harris County, Texas indicated similar drug usage trends. Over a four-year period (1988-91), the drugs most frequently detected during blood and urine analyses were cocaine, followed by marijuana, heroin, LSD, and methamphetamines.^ From 1988 to 1991, most drug rehabilitation organizations experienced increased demands for their services by approximately 35%. Several other organizations experienced as much as a 70 percent increase. Males accounted for roughly 70% and females about 30% of persons seeking treatment. However, the number of females pursuing treatment increased, thereby reducing the gender gap.^ Blacks in Houston/Harris County were at higher risk for drug usage among the general population, but sought treatment more readily than other ethnic groups. Whites sought treatment in similar numbers as Blacks, but overall the risk appeared smaller because they made up a larger portion of the Houston/Harris County population.^ This analysis concluded that drug trends for the Houston/Harris County, Texas did not follow national trends, but showed patterns of its own. It was recommended that other communities carry out similar studies to determine drug use trends particular to their local. ^

Systematic review of current trends of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and association between health insurance coverage and CVD mortality among women aged 60--65 in Texas in 2000--2011

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is highly preventable, yet it is a leading cause of death among women in Texas. The primary goals of this research were to examine past and current trends of CVD, as well as identify whether there is an association between the insurance coverage and mortality from CVD among women aged 60–65 in Texas between 2000 and 2011. ^ The systematic review of the research is based on the guidelines and recommendations set by the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination for conducting reviews in health care. Over 47 citations of peer-reviewed articles from Ovid MEDLINE and PubMed databases and five websites were identified, of which 7 studies met inclusion criteria for the first systematic review to examine the trends of CVD in Texas. Ten citations of peer-reviewed articles from Ovid MEDLINE and PubMed databases and five web sites were reviewed for the second systematic review (to study the association between insurance coverage and cardiovascular health among Texas women 60–64 years of age), of which 3 studies met inclusion criteria and were included in the research. The results of the study highlighted key gaps in the existing literature and important areas for the further research, as well as determined directions for future public health CVD prevention programs in Texas. ^ Based on the conducted research, the major determinants of premature mortality among women attributed to cardiovascular disease are based on individual level characteristics, more specifically sex, age, race/ethnicity, and education. The results indicate that African American and non-Hispanic white women are more likely to have higher CVD mortality rates than Hispanic women due to higher prevalence of cardiac risk factors. The data also shows higher levels of mortality from CVD in the southeastern United States, with Texas ranking as the third state with the highest prevalence of CVD among women. According to the Texas Department of State Health Services, there are approximately 56,000 deaths caused by CVD annually in Texas, which represents about one death every ten minutes. Coronary artery disease and stroke were the causes of 31.2 percent of all female deaths in Texas in 2009, meaning that approximately 68 women die from any form of cardiac disease in Texas each day. ^ The data of the reviewed studies indicate that women' lack of health insurance was significantly associated with a higher prevalence of cardiovascular disease. The uninsured women were more likely to be unaware of their risk factors and more likely to have undiagnosed diabetes—a co-morbidity factor of CVD. One of the studies also reports strong correlation between state rates of uninsured and lower rates of preventive care. Given these strong correlations, those who were chronically uninsured were at a higher risk of mortality than the insured, due to prolonged periods of time without basic access to preventive and medical care. ^ Suggested recommendations to decrease CVD mortality rates in Texas are consistent with the existing literature and include state policy development that addresses elimination of health disparities, consideration of potential benefits of universal health coverage by the legislative policymakers, and maintenance of solid partnerships between public health agencies and hospitals to educate on, diagnose, and treat CVD among the female population in Texas. ^

Estimates of life expectancy gains from reducing/eliminating major causes of death in the USA: An update analysis for population in 2001--2008

Evaluation of the impact of a disease on life expectancy is an important part of public health. Potential gains in life expectancy (PGLE) that can properly take into account the competing risks are an effective indicator for measuring the impact of the multiple causes of death. This study aimed to measure the PGLEs from reducing/eliminating the major causes of death in the USA from 2001 to 2008. To calculate the PGLEs due to the elimination of specific causes of death, the age-specific mortality rates for heart disease, malignant neoplasms, Alzheimer disease, kidney diseases and HIV/AIDS and life table constructing data were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics, and the multiple decremental life tables were constructed. The PGLEs by elimination of heart disease, malignant neoplasms or HIV/AIDS continued decreasing from 2001 to 2008, but the PGLE by elimination of Alzheimer's disease or kidney diseases revealed increased trends. The PGLEs (by years) for all race, male, female, white, white male, white female, black, black male and black female at birth by complete elimination of heart disease 2001–2008 were 0.336–0.299, 0.327–0.301, 0.344–0.295, 0.360–0.315, 0.349–0.317, 0.371–0.316,0.278–0.251, 0.272–0.255, and 0.282–0.246 respectively. Similarly, the PGLEs (by years) for all race, male, female, white, white male, white female, black, black male and black female at birth by complete elimination of malignant neoplasms, Alzheimer's disease, kidney disease or HIV/AIDS 2001–2008 were also uncovered, respectively. Most diseases affect specific population, such as, HIV/AIDS tends to have a greater impact on people of working age, heart disease and malignant neoplasms have a greater impact on people over 65 years of age, but Alzheimer's disease and kidney diseases have a greater impact on people over 75 years of age. To measure the impact of these diseases on life expectancy in people of working age, partial multiple decremental life tables were constructed and the PGLEs were computed by partial or complete elimination of various causes of death during the working years. Thus, the results of the study outlined a picture of how each single disease could affect the life expectancy in age-, race-, or sex-specific population in USA. Therefore, the findings would not only assist to evaluate current public health improvements, but also provide useful information for future research and disease control programs.^

The effects of health changes on projections of health service needs for the elderly population of the United States

The 1982–1994 National Long-Term Care Surveys indicate an accelerating decline in disability among the U.S. elderly population, suggesting that a 1.5% annual decline in chronic disability for elderly persons is achievable. Furthermore, many risk factors for chronic diseases show improvements, many linked to education, from 1910 to the present. Projections indicate the proportion of persons aged 85–89 with less than 8 years of education will decline from 65% in 1980 to 15% in 2015. Health and socioeconomic status trends are not directly represented in Medicare Trust Fund and Social Security Administration beneficiary projections. Thus, they may have different economic implications from projections directly accounting for health trends. A 1.5% annual disability decline keeps the support ratio (ratio of economically active persons aged 20–64 to the number of chronically disabled persons aged 65+) above its 1994 value, 22:1, when the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund was in fiscal balance, to 2070. With no changes in disability, projections indicate a support ratio in 2070 of 8:1—63% below a cash flow balance.

Changes in the prevalence of chronic disability in the United States black and nonblack population above age 65 from 1982 to 1999

Survey evidence through the early 1990s generally suggests a reduction in disability in the elderly population of the United States. Because the evidence is not fully consistent, several authors have speculated about whether disability declines will continue. This paper reports results from the 1999 National Long-Term Care Survey on disability trends from 1982 through 1999. It is found that disability continued to decline in the 1994 to 1999 period, and that the decline was greater in the 1990s than in the 1980s. The disability decline from 1982 to 1989 was 0.26% per year, from 1989 to 1994 it was 0.38% per year, and from 1994 to 1999 it was 0.56% per year. In addition, disability declined by a greater percentage for blacks than for nonblacks over the 1989 to 1999 period.