Ensuring operational compliance and ethical responsibility in the regulation of ART: the HFEA, past, present, and future

Under the Public Bodies Bill 2010, the HFEA, cornerstone in the regulation of assisted reproduction technologies (ART) for the last twenty years, is due to be abolished. This implies that there is no longer a need for a dedicated regulator for ART and that the existing roles of the Authority as both operational compliance monitor, and instance of ethical evaluation, may be absorbed by existing healthcare regulators. This article presents a timely analysis of these disparate functions of the HFEA, charting reforms adopted in 2008 and assessing the impact of the current proposals. Taking assisted conception treatment as the focus activity, it will be shown that the last few years have seen a concentration on the HFEA as a technical regulator based upon the principles of Better Regulation, with little analysis of how the ethical responsibility of the Authority fits into this framework. The current proposal to abolish the HFEA continues to fail to address this crucial question. Notwithstanding the fact that the scope of the Authority's ethical role may be questioned, its abolition requires that the Government consider what alternatives exists - or need to be put in place - to provide both responsive operational regulation and a forum for ethical reflection and decision-making in an area which continues to pose regulatory challenges

Feasibility of using dialysis for determining calcium ion concentration and pH in calcium-fortified soymilk at high temperature

Dialysis was performed to examine some of the properties of the soluble phase of calcium (Ca) fortified soymilk at high temperatures. Dialysates were obtained while heating soymilk at temperatures of 80 and 100 °C for 1 h and 121 °C for 15 min. It was found that the pH, total Ca, and ionic Ca of dialysates obtained at high temperature were all lower than in their corresponding nonheated Ca-fortified soymilk. Increasing temperature from 80 to 100 °C hardly affected Ca ion concentration ([Ca2+]) of dialysate obtained from Ca chloride-fortified soymilk, but it increased [Ca2+] in dialysates of Ca gluconate-fortified soymilk and Ca lactate-fortified soymilk fortified with 5 to 6 mM Ca. Dialysates obtained at 100 °C had lower pH than dialysate prepared at 80 °C. Higher Ca additions to soymilk caused a significant (P≤ 0.05) reduction in pH and an increase in [Ca2+] of these dialysates. When soymilk was dialyzed at 121 °C, pH, total Ca, and ionic Ca were further reduced. Freezing point depression (FPD) of dialysates increased as temperature increased but were lower than corresponding soymilk samples. This approach provides a means of estimating pH and ionic Ca in soymilks at high temperatures, in order to better understand their combined role on soymilk coagulation.

Feasibility of using eye tracking to increase resolution for visual telepresence

Visual telepresence seeks to extend existing teleoperative capability by supplying the operator with a 3D interactive view of the remote environment. This is achieved through the use of a stereo camera platform which, through appropriate 3D display devices, provides a distinct image to each eye of the operator, and which is slaved directly from the operator's head and eye movements. However, the resolution within current head mounted displays remains poor, thereby reducing the operator's visual acuity. This paper reports on the feasibility of incorporation of eye tracking to increase resolution and investigates the stability and control issues for such a system. Continuous domain and discrete simulations are presented which indicates that eye tracking provides a stable feedback loop for tracking applications, though some empirical testing (currently being initiated) of such a system will be required to overcome indicated stability problems associated with micro saccades of the human operator.

Sensitivity and out-of-sample error in continuous time data assimilation

Data assimilation refers to the problem of finding trajectories of a prescribed dynamical model in such a way that the output of the model (usually some function of the model states) follows a given time series of observations. Typically though, these two requirements cannot both be met at the same time–tracking the observations is not possible without the trajectory deviating from the proposed model equations, while adherence to the model requires deviations from the observations. Thus, data assimilation faces a trade-off. In this contribution, the sensitivity of the data assimilation with respect to perturbations in the observations is identified as the parameter which controls the trade-off. A relation between the sensitivity and the out-of-sample error is established, which allows the latter to be calculated under operational conditions. A minimum out-of-sample error is proposed as a criterion to set an appropriate sensitivity and to settle the discussed trade-off. Two approaches to data assimilation are considered, namely variational data assimilation and Newtonian nudging, also known as synchronization. Numerical examples demonstrate the feasibility of the approach.

Prediction of visibility and aerosol within the operational Met Office unified model. I: Model formulation and variational assimilation

The formulation and performance of the Met Office visibility analysis and prediction system are described. The visibility diagnostic within the limited-area Unified Model is a function of humidity and a prognostic aerosol content. The aerosol model includes advection, industrial and general urban sources, plus boundary-layer mixing and removal by rain. The assimilation is a 3-dimensional variational scheme in which the visibility observation operator is a very nonlinear function of humidity, aerosol and temperature. A quality control scheme for visibility data is included. Visibility observations can give rise to humidity increments of significant magnitude compared with the direct impact of humidity observations. We present the results of sensitivity studies which show the contribution of different components of the system to improved skill in visibility forecasts. Visibility assimilation is most important within the first 6-12 hours of the forecast and for visibilities below 1 km, while modelling of aerosol sources and advection is important for slightly higher visibilities (1-5 km) and is still significant at longer forecast times

Electrical stimulation for trunk control in paraplegia:A feasibility study

Paraplegic subjects lack trunk stability due to the loss of voluntary muscle control.This leads to a restriction of the volume of bi-manual workspace available,and hence has a detrimental impact on activities of daily living. Electrical Stimulation of paralysed muscles can be used to stabilize the trunk, but has never been applied in closed loop for this purpose. This paper describes the development of two closed loop controllers(PID and LQR),and their experimental evaluation on a human subject. Advantages and disadvantages of the two are discussed,considering a potential use of this technology during daily activities.

The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management

Although ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are increasingly promoted as the scientific state-of-the-art for operational flood forecasting, the communication, perception, and use of the resulting alerts have received much less attention. Using a variety of qualitative research methods, including direct user feedback at training workshops, participant observation during site visits to 25 forecasting centres across Europe, and in-depth interviews with 69 forecasters, civil protection officials, and policy makers involved in operational flood risk management in 17 European countries, this article discusses the perception, communication, and use of European Flood Alert System (EFAS) alerts in operational flood management. In particular, this article describes how the design of EFAS alerts has evolved in response to user feedback and desires for a hydrographic-like way of visualizing EFAS outputs. It also documents a variety of forecaster perceptions about the value and skill of EFAS forecasts and the best way of using them to inform operational decision making. EFAS flood alerts were generally welcomed by flood forecasters as a sort of ‘pre-alert’ to spur greater internal vigilance. In most cases, however, they did not lead, by themselves, to further preparatory action or to earlier warnings to the public or emergency services. Their hesitancy to act in response to medium-term, probabilistic alerts highlights some wider institutional obstacles to the hopes in the research community that EPS will be readily embraced by operational forecasters and lead to immediate improvements in flood incident management. The EFAS experience offers lessons for other hydrological services seeking to implement EPS operationally for flood forecasting and warning. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sea surface temperature estimation from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 12 (GOES-12)

This paper describes the techniques used to obtain sea surface temperature (SST) retrievals from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 12 (GOES-12) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution. Previous SST retrieval techniques relying on channels at 11 and 12 μm are not applicable because GOES-12 lacks the latter channel. Cloud detection is performed using a Bayesian method exploiting fast-forward modeling of prior clear-sky radiances using numerical weather predictions. The basic retrieval algorithm used at nighttime is based on a linear combination of brightness temperatures at 3.9 and 11 μm. In comparison with traditional split window SSTs (using 11- and 12-μm channels), simulations show that this combination has maximum scatter when observing drier colder scenes, with a comparable overall performance. For daytime retrieval, the same algorithm is applied after estimating and removing the contribution to brightness temperature in the 3.9-μm channel from solar irradiance. The correction is based on radiative transfer simulations and comprises a parameterization for atmospheric scattering and a calculation of ocean surface reflected radiance. Potential use of the 13-μm channel for SST is shown in a simulation study: in conjunction with the 3.9-μm channel, it can reduce the retrieval error by 30%. Some validation results are shown while a companion paper by Maturi et al. shows a detailed analysis of the validation results for the operational algorithms described in this present article.

NOAA's sea surface temperature products from operational geostationary satellites

NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) has generated sea surface temperature (SST) products from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-East (E) and GOES-West (W) on an operational basis since December 2000. Since that time, a process of continual development has produced steady improvements in product accuracy. Recent improvements extended the capability to permit generation of operational SST retrievals from the Japanese Multifunction Transport Satellite (MTSAT)-1R and the European Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite, thereby extending spatial coverage. The four geostationary satellites (at longitudes of 75°W, 135°W, 140°E, and 0°) provide high temporal SST retrievals for most of the tropics and midlatitudes, with the exception of a region between 60° and 80°E. Because of ongoing development, the quality of these retrievals now approaches that of SST products from the polar-orbiting Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). These products from GOES provide hourly regional imagery, 3-hourly hemispheric imagery, 24-h merged composites, a GOES SST level 2 preprocessed product every 1/2 h for each hemisphere, and a match-up data file for each product. The MTSAT and the MSG products include hourly, 3-hourly, and 24-h merged composites. These products provide the user community with a reliable source of SST observations, with improved accuracy and increased coverage in important oceanographic, meteorological, and climatic regions.