An analysis of long-term trends, seasonality and short-term dynamics in water quality data from Plynlimon, Wales

This paper examines two hydrochemical time-series derived from stream samples taken in the Upper Hafren catchment, Plynlimon, Wales. One time-series comprises data collected at 7-hour intervals over 22 months (Neal et al., submitted, this issue), while the other is based on weekly sampling over 20 years. A subset of determinands: aluminium, calcium, chloride, conductivity, dissolved organic carbon, iron, nitrate, pH, silicon and sulphate are examined within a framework of non-stationary time-series analysis to identify determinand trends, seasonality and short-term dynamics. The results demonstrate that both long-term and high-frequency monitoring provide valuable and unique insights into the hydrochemistry of a catchment. The long-term data allowed analysis of long-termtrends, demonstrating continued increases in DOC concentrations accompanied by declining SO4 concentrations within the stream, and provided new insights into the changing amplitude and phase of the seasonality of the determinands such as DOC and Al. Additionally, these data proved invaluable for placing the short-term variability demonstrated within the high-frequency data within context. The 7-hour data highlighted complex diurnal cycles for NO3, Ca and Fe with cycles displaying changes in phase and amplitude on a seasonal basis. The high-frequency data also demonstrated the need to consider the impact that the time of sample collection can have on the summary statistics of the data and also that sampling during the hours of darkness provides additional hydrochemical information for determinands which exhibit pronounced diurnal variability. Moving forward, this research demonstrates the need for both long-term and high-frequency monitoring to facilitate a full and accurate understanding of catchment hydrochemical dynamics.

The case for property in the long run: a cointegration test

The benefits of property in the mixed asset portfolio has been the subject of a number of studies both in the UK and around the world. The traditional way of investigating this issue is to use MPT with the results suggesting that Property should play a significant role in the mixed asset portfolio. These results are not without criticism and generally revolve around quality and quantity of the property data series. To overcome these deficiencies this paper uses cointegration methodology which examines the longer term time series behaviour of various asset markets using a very long run desmoothed data series. Using a number of different cointegration tests, both pair-wise and multivariate, the results show, in unambiguous terms, that there is no contemporous cointegration between the major asset classes Property, Equities and Bonds. The implications of which are that Property does indeed have a risk reducing place to play in the long-run strategic mixed-asset portfolio. A result of particular relevance to institutions such as pension funds and life insurance companies who would wish to hold investments for the long-term.

Case study part 1: how to calculate appropriate deterministic long-term toxicity to exposure rates (TERs) for birds and mammals

In the European Union, first-tier assessment of the long-term risk to birds and mammals from pesticides is based on calculation of a deterministic long-term toxicity/exposure ratio(TERlt). The ratio is developed from generic herbivores and insectivores and applied to all species. This paper describes two case studies that implement proposed improvements to the way long-term risk is assessed. These refined methods require calculation of a TER for each of five identified phases of reproduction (phase-specific TERs) and use of adjusted No Observed Effect Levels (NOELs)to incorporate variation in species sensitivity to pesticides. They also involve progressive refinement of the exposure estimate so that it applies to particular species, rather than generic indicators, and relates spraying date to onset of reproduction. The effect of using these new methods on the assessment of risk is described. Each refinement did not necessarily alter the calculated TER value in a way that was either predictable or consistent across both case studies. However, use of adjusted NOELs always reduced TERs, and relating spraying date to onset of reproduction increased most phase-specific TERs. The case studies suggested that the current first-tier TERlt assessment may underestimate risk in some circumstances and that phase-specific assessments can help identify appropriate risk-reduction measures. The way in which deterministic phase-specific assessments can currently be implemented to enhance first-tier assessment is outlined.

Acute and long-term effects of dietary fatty acids on vascular function in health and disease

Purpose of review: Vascular function is recognized as an early and integrative marker of cardiovascular disease. While there is consistent evidence that the quantity of dietary fat has significant effects on vascular function, the differential effects of individual fatty acids is less clear. This review summarizes recent evidence from randomly controlled dietary studies on the impact of dietary fatty acids on vascular function, as determined by flow-mediated dilatation (FMD). Recent findings: Critical appraisal is given to five intervention studies (one acute, four chronic) which examined the impact of long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid [eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA)] on FMD. In the acute setting, a high dose of long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid (4.9 g per 70 kg man) improved postprandial FMD significantly, compared with a saturated fatty acid-rich meal in healthy individuals. In longer-term studies, there was limited evidence for a significant effect of EPA/DHA on FMD in diseased groups. Summary: The strongest evidence for the benefits of EPA/DHA on vascular function is in the postprandial state. More evidence from randomly controlled intervention trials with foods will be required to substantiate the long-term effects of EPA/DHA, to inform public health and clinical recommendations.

Controlled adhesion and growth of long term glial and neuronal cultures on Parylene-C

This paper explores the long term development of networks of glia and neurons on patterns of Parylene-C on a SiO2 substrate. We harvested glia and neurons from the Sprague-Dawley (P1–P7) rat hippocampus and utilized an established cell patterning technique in order to investigate cellular migration, over the course of 3 weeks. This work demonstrates that uncontrolled glial mitosis gradually disrupts cellular patterns that are established early during culture. This effect is not attributed to a loss of protein from the Parylene-C surface, as nitrogen levels on the substrate remain stable over 3 weeks. The inclusion of the anti-mitotic cytarabine (Ara-C) in the culture medium moderates glial division and thus, adequately preserves initial glial and neuronal conformity to underlying patterns. Neuronal apoptosis, often associated with the use of Ara-C, is mitigated by the addition of brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF). We believe that with the right combination of glial inhibitors and neuronal promoters, the Parylene-C based cell patterning method can generate structured, active neural networks that can be sustained and investigated over extended periods of time. To our knowledge this is the first report on the concurrent application of Ara-C and BDNF on patterned cell cultures.

Long-term storage of ectomycorrhizal basidiomycetes (Hebeloma spp.) at low temperature

A method for maintaining viable cultures of ectomycorrhizal Hebeloma strains in cold liquid culture medium is described. Isolates of Hebeloma spp., collected over a wide geographic range, were stored at 2 °C for a period of three years. All cultures survived this storage period, a greater time period and success rate than has previously been reported for the long term storage of ectomycorrhizal basidiomycetes. The method may prove useful for long-term storage of other basidiomycete genera.

Strenghthening long-term growth in Brazil

This paper is devoted to an examination of the main issues identified with Brazil’s barriers to growth in the long term. It begins with a decomposition of per capita and total GDP long term growth to identify the main proximate sources of Brazil’s growth deceleration. Most of the analysis in this part concentrates on factors affecting aggregate supply. The reason for this approach is that, within certain limits past experience reveals that it is easy to stimulate aggregate demand via fiscal and monetary stimuli in Brazil. The risk is on bumping into production capacity barriers, i.e., supply constraints. Five substantially diversified but interconnected issues have been raised in the literature as supply constraints, many of which associated to a rate of savings lower than deemed necessary for sustaining faster growth: the tax burden, institutional factors, infrastructure, finance and education. Accordingly, the paper also deals with the issues of a high an increasing tax burden, institutional shortcomings and policy settings, insufficient investment in infrastructure, insufficient long term financing, and educational shortcomings, as growth impediments. A survey of policies aimed at removing the barriers to growth thus identified is presented next. The paper concludes by bringing again to the fore the need to increase savings and investment for growth resumption and by speculating on the growth potential of Brazil, conditional on productivity and investment growth.

Long-term facial artery catheter implantation for serial arterial blood sampling and invasive arterial blood pressure measurement in horses

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Maternal separation stress in male mice: long-term increases in alcohol intake

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Interior point method for long-term generation scheduling of large-scale hydrothermal systems

This paper presents an interior point method for the long-term generation scheduling of large-scale hydrothermal systems. The problem is formulated as a nonlinear programming one due to the nonlinear representation of hydropower production and thermal fuel cost functions. Sparsity exploitation techniques and an heuristic procedure for computing the interior point method search directions have been developed. Numerical tests in case studies with systems of different dimensions and inflow scenarios have been carried out in order to evaluate the proposed method. Three systems were tested, with the largest being the Brazilian hydropower system with 74 hydro plants distributed in several cascades. Results show that the proposed method is an efficient and robust tool for solving the long-term generation scheduling problem.

Long-Term Safety and Efficacy of Abatacept in Children With Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis

Objective. We previously documented that abatacept was effective and safe in patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) who had not previously achieved a satisfactory clinical response with disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs or tumor necrosis factor blockade. Here, we report results from the long-term extension (LTE) phase of that study.Methods. This report describes the long-term, open-label extension phase of a double-blind, randomized, controlled withdrawal trial in 190 patients with JIA ages 6-17 years. Children were treated with 10 mg/kg abatacept administered intravenously every 4 weeks, with or without methotrexate. Efficacy results were based on data derived from the 153 patients who entered the open-label LTE phase and reflect >= 21 months (589 days) of treatment. Safety results include all available open-label data as of May 7, 2008.Results. of the 190 enrolled patients, 153 entered the LTE. By day 589, 90%, 88%, 75%, 57%, and 39% of patients treated with abatacept during the double-blind and LTE phases achieved responses according to the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) Pediatric 30 (Pedi 30), Pedi 50, Pedi 70, Pedi 90, and Pedi 100 criteria for improvement, respectively. Similar response rates were observed by day 589 among patients previously treated with placebo. Among patients who had not achieved an ACR Pedi 30 response at the end of the open-label lead-in phase and who proceeded directly into the LTE, 73%, 64%, 46%, 18%, and 5% achieved ACR Pedi 30, Pedi 50, Pedi 70, Pedi 90, and Pedi 100 responses, respectively, by day 589 of the LTE. No cases of tuberculosis and no malignancies were reported during the LTE. Pneumonia developed in 3 patients, and multiple sclerosis developed in 1 patient.Conclusion. Abatacept provided clinically significant and durable efficacy in patients with JIA, including those who did not initially achieve an ACR Pedi 30 response during the initial 4-month open-label lead-in phase.

Long-term nano-mechanical properties of biomodified dentin-resin interface components

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Long-term histopathologic evaluation of inferior vena cava after modified Greenfield filter implantation - Experimental study in sheep

Aim. The authors assess a modified Greenfield filter (GF) for the long-term patency, filter tilting and histopathologic alterations of the inferior vena cava (IVC).Methods. Adult sheep (n=7) underwent modified GF placement in the IVC. Cavograms were obtained every 3 months and pulmonary angiography at 12 months. Histopathologic and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) analyses were performed on the IVC explanted at 12 months.Results. Cavograms showed that all IVC were patent at the end of the study. Filter tilting occurred in 2/7 animals and extrusion of struts was not observed. Macroscopic examination at explantation showed minimal venous wall thickening. Microscopic examination showed minimal IVC fibrosis and intimal hyperplasia. SEM showed endothelium on the IVC surface at the filter implantation site and a presumed endothelial layer covering partially or totally the struts. The interface filter-IVC was covered by deposits of leucocytes and platelets. No signs of pulmonary embolism were found in all pulmonary angiograms of both groups.Conclusion. The modified filter presented good biocompatibility, stability and absence of thrombogenicity at 12 months. It presented low tendency to tilting and extrusion of struts. The long-term histopathologic alterations in vena caval wall were minimal and the appearance of the studied filters in the IVC was similar to stents placed in the arterial system.

Long-term effectiveness and treatment timing for bionator therapy

The aim of the present investigation was to provide information about the long-term effects and optimal timing for class-II treatment with the Bionator appliance. Lateral cephalograms of 23 class-II patients treated with the Bionator were analyzed at three time periods: T1, start of treatment; T2, end of Bionator therapy; and T3, long-term observation (after completion of growth). T3 includes a phase with fixed appliances. The treated sample was divided into two groups according to their skeletal maturity as evaluated by the cervical vertebral maturation (CVM) method. The early-treated group (13 subjects) initiated treatment before the peak in mandibular growth, which occurred after completion of Bionator therapy. The late-treated group (10 subjects) received Bionator treatment during the peak. The T1-T2, T2-T3, and T1-T3 changes in the treated groups were compared with changes in control groups of untreated class-II subjects by nonparametric statistics (P < .05). The findings of the present study on Bionator therapy followed by fixed appliances indicate that this treatment protocol is more effective and stable when it is performed during the pubertal growth spurt. Optimal timing to start treatment with the Bionator is when a concavity appears at the lower borders of the second and the third cervical vertebrae (CVMS 11). In the long term, the amount of significant supplementary elongation of the mandible in subjects treated during the pubertal peak is 5.1 mm more than in the controls, and it is associated with a backward direction of condylar growth. Significant increments in mandibular ramus height also were recorded.

Parallel simulated annealing applied to long term transmission network expansion planning

The simulated annealing optimization technique has been successfully applied to a number of electrical engineering problems, including transmission system expansion planning. The method is general in the sense that it does not assume any particular property of the problem being solved, such as linearity or convexity. Moreover, it has the ability to provide solutions arbitrarily close to an optimum (i.e. it is asymptotically convergent) as the cooling process slows down. The drawback of the approach is the computational burden: finding optimal solutions may be extremely expensive in some cases. This paper presents a Parallel Simulated Annealing, PSA, algorithm for solving the long term transmission network expansion planning problem. A strategy that does not affect the basic convergence properties of the Sequential Simulated Annealing algorithm have been implementeded and tested. The paper investigates the conditions under which the parallel algorithm is most efficient. The parallel implementations have been tested on three example networks: a small 6-bus network, and two complex real-life networks. Excellent results are reported in the test section of the paper: in addition to reductions in computing times, the Parallel Simulated Annealing algorithm proposed in the paper has shown significant improvements in solution quality for the largest of the test networks.