EXPLORATION OF THE MTSAT2 SATELLITE CAPABILITIES FOR REAL TIME DETECTION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF VOLCANIC EMISSIONS

In this report, we attempt to define the capabilities of the infrared satellite remote sensor, Multifunctional Transport Satellite-2 (MTSAT-2) (i.e. a geosynchronous instrument), in characterizing volcanic eruptive behavior in the highly active region of Indonesia. Sulfur dioxide data from NASA's Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) (i.e. a polar orbiting instrument) are presented here for validation of the processes interpreted using the thermal infrared datasets. Data provided from two case studies are analyzed specifically for eruptive products producing large thermal anomalies (i.e. lava flows, lava domes, etc.), volcanic ash and SO2 clouds; three distinctly characteristic and abundant volcanic emissions. Two primary methods used for detection of heat signatures are used and compared in this report including, single-channel thermal radiance (4-µm) and the normalized thermal index (NTI) algorithm. For automated purposes, fixed thresholds must be determined for these methods. A base minimum detection limit (MDL) for single-channel thermal radiance of 2.30E+05 Wm- 2sr-1m-1 and -0.925 for NTI generate false alarm rates of 35.78% and 34.16%, respectively. A spatial comparison method, developed here specifically for use in Indonesia and used as a second parameter for detection, is implemented to address the high false alarm rate. For the single-channel thermal radiance method, the utilization of the spatial comparison method eliminated 100% of the false alarms while maintaining every true anomaly. The NTI algorithm showed similar results with only 2 false alarms remaining. No definitive difference is observed between the two thermal detection methods for automated use; however, the single-channel thermal radiance method coupled with the SO2 mass abundance data can be used to interpret volcanic processes including the identification of lava dome activity at Sinabung as well as the mechanism for the dome emplacement (i.e. endogenous or exogenous). Only one technique, the brightness temperature difference (BTD) method, is used for the detection of ash. Trends of ash area, water/ice area, and their respective concentrations yield interpretations of increased ice formation, aggregation, and sedimentation processes that only a high-temporal resolution instrument like the MTSAT-2 can analyze. A conceptual model of a secondary zone of aggregation occurring in the migrating Kelut ash cloud, which decreases the distal fine-ash component and hazards to flight paths, is presented in this report. Unfortunately, SO2 data was unable to definitively reinforce the concept of a secondary zone of aggregation due to the lack of a sufficient temporal resolution. However, a detailed study of the Kelut SO2 cloud is used to determine that there was no climatic impacts generated from this eruption due to the atmospheric residence times and e-folding rate of ~14 days for the SO2. This report applies the complementary assets offered by utilizing a high-temporal and a high-spatial resolution satellite, and it demonstrates that these two instruments can provide unparalleled observations of dynamic volcanic processes.

Oral hygiene indirect instruction and periodic reinforcements: effects on index plaque in schoolchildren

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the indirect instruction and the influence of the periodic reinforcement on the plaque index in schoolchildren. Forty schoolchildren aged from 7 to 9 years old were selected from a public school. After determining the initial O'Leary Plaque Index all schoolchildren were submitted to a program for oral hygiene through indirect instruction -"The Smiling Robot". The schoolchildren were divided into 2 groups: with and without motivation reinforcement. The index plaque exam was performed in both groups after 30, 60 and 90 days of the educational program. Comparing the groups, the plaque index decreasing could be observed in the group with reinforcement with statistically significant difference. For the group with reinforcement, statistically significant difference among the evaluations was found. For the group without reinforcement, significant decrease in the plaque index was found after 30 days when compared to the first, third and fourth evaluations. The indirect instruction with "The Smiling Robot "promoted a positive initial impact on the decrease of plaque index in the schoolchildren. The periodic reinforcements showed more suitable results and significant reduction of the plaque index in the course of the evaluations.

Climatic and human impacts on mountain vegetation at Lauenensee (Bernese Alps, Switzerland) during the last 14,000 years

Lake sediments from Lauenensee (1381 m a.s.l.), a small lake in the Bernese Alps, were analysed to reconstruct the vegetation and fire history. The chronology is based on 11 calibrated radiocarbon dates on terrestrial plant macrofossils suggesting a basal age of 14,200 cal. BP. Pollen and macrofossil data imply that treeline never reached the lake catchment during the Bølling–Allerød interstadial. Treeline north of the Alps was depressed by c. 300 altitudinal meters, if compared with southern locations. We attribute this difference to colder temperatures and to unbuffered cold air excursions from the ice masses in northern Europe. Afforestation started after the Younger Dryas at 11,600 cal. BP. Early-Holocene tree-Betula and Pinus sylvestris forests were replaced by Abies alba forests around 7500 cal. BP. Continuous high-resolution pollen and macrofossil series allow quantitative assessments of vegetation dynamics at 5900–5200 cal. BP (first expansion of Picea abies, decline of Abies alba) and 4100–2900 cal. BP (first collapse of Abies alba). The first signs of human activity became noticeable during the late Neolithic c. 5700–5200 cal. BP. Cross-correlation analysis shows that the expansion of Alnus viridis and the replacement of Abies alba by Picea abies after c. 5500 cal. BP was most likely a consequence of human disturbance. Abies alba responded very sensitively to a combination of fire and grazing disturbance. Our results imply that the current dominance of Picea abies in the upper montane and subalpine belts is a consequence of anthropogenic activities through the millennia.

A 170 year spring phenology index of plants in eastern China

Extending phenological records into the past is essential for the understanding of past ecological change and evaluating the effects of climate change on ecosystems. A growing body of historical phenological information is now available for Europe, North America, and Asia. In East Asia, long-term phenological series are still relatively scarce. This study extracted plant phenological observations from old diaries in the period 1834–1962. A spring phenology index (SPI) for the modern period (1963–2009) was defined as the mean flowering time of three shrubs (first flowering of Amygdalus davidiana and Cercis chinensis, 50% of full flowering of Paeonia suffruticosa) according to the data availability. Applying calibrated transfer functions from the modern period to the historical data, we reconstructed a continuous SPI time series across eastern China from 1834 to 2009. In the recent 30 years, the SPI is 2.1–6.3 days earlier than during any other consecutive 30 year period before 1970. A moving linear trend analysis shows that the advancing trend of SPI over the past three decades reaches upward of 4.1 d/decade, which exceeds all previously observed trends in the past 30 year period. In addition, the SPI series correlates significantly with spring (February to April) temperatures in the study area, with an increase in spring temperature of 1°C inducing an earlier SPI by 3.1 days. These shifts of SPI provide important information regarding regional vegetation-climate relationships, and they are helpful to assess long term of climate change impacts on biophysical systems and biodiversity.

Development and Validation of a Symptom-Based Activity Index for Adults with Eosinophilic Esophagitis

BACKGROUND & Aims: Standardized instruments are needed to assess the activity of eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE), to provide endpoints for clinical trials and observational studies. We aimed to develop and validate a patient-reported outcome (PRO) instrument and score, based on items that could account for variations in patients' assessments of disease severity. We also evaluated relationships between patients' assessment of disease severity and EoE-associated endoscopic, histologic, and laboratory findings. METHODS We collected information from 186 patients with EoE in Switzerland and the US (69.4% male; median age, 43 years) via surveys (n = 135), focus groups (n = 27), and semi-structured interviews (n = 24). Items were generated for the instruments to assess biologic activity based on physician input. Linear regression was used to quantify the extent to which variations in patient-reported disease characteristics could account for variations in patients' assessment of EoE severity. The PRO instrument was prospectively used in 153 adult patients with EoE (72.5% male; median age, 38 years), and validated in an independent group of 120 patients with EoE (60.8% male; median age, 40.5 years). RESULTS Seven PRO factors that are used to assess characteristics of dysphagia, behavioral adaptations to living with dysphagia, and pain while swallowing accounted for 67% of the variation in patients' assessment of disease severity. Based on statistical consideration and patient input, a 7-day recall period was selected. Highly active EoE, based on endoscopic and histologic findings, was associated with an increase in patient-assessed disease severity. In the validation study, the mean difference between patient assessment of EoE severity and PRO score was 0.13 (on a scale from 0 to 10). CONCLUSIONS We developed and validated an EoE scoring system based on 7 PRO items that assesses symptoms over a 7-day recall period. Clinicaltrials.gov number: NCT00939263.

Which Radiographic Hip Parameters Do Not Have to Be Corrected for Pelvic Rotation and Tilt?

Background Acetabular anatomy on AP pelvic radiographsdepends on pelvic orientation during radiograph acquisition. However, not all parameters may change to a clinically relevant degree with differences in pelvic orientation. This issue may influence the diagnosis of acetabular pathologies and planning of corrective acetabular surgery (reorientation or rim trimming). However, to this point, it has not been well characterized. Questions/purposes We asked (1) which radiographic parameters change in a clinical setting when normalized to neutral pelvic orientation; (2) which parameters do not change in an experimental setting when the pelvis is experimentally rotated/tilted; and (3) which of these changes are ‘‘ultimately’’ relevant based on a prespecified definition of relevance. Methods In a clinical setup, 11 hip parameters were evaluated in 101 patients (126 hips) by two observers and the interobserver difference was calculated. All parameters were normalized to an anatomically defined neutral pelvic orientation with the help of a lateral pelvic radiograph and specific software. Differences between nonnormalized and normalized values were calculated (effect of normalization). In an experimental setup involving 20 cadaver pelves (40 hips), the maximum range for each parameter was computed with the pelvis rotated (range, −12° to 12°) and tilted (range, −24° to 24°). ‘‘Ultimately’’ relevant changes existed if the effect of normalization exceeded the interobserver difference (eg, 37% versus 6% for prevalence of a positive crossover sign) and/or the maximum experimental range exceeded 1 SD of interobserver difference (eg, 27% versus 6% for anterior acetabular coverage). Results In the clinical setup, all parameters except the ACM angle and craniocaudal acetabular coverage changed when being normalized, eg, effect of normalization for lateral center-edge angle, acetabular index, and sharp angle ranged from −5° to 4° (p values < 0.029). In the experimental setup, five parameters showed no major changes, whereas six parameters did change (all p values < 0.001). Ultimately relevant changes were found for anteroposterior acetabular coverage, retroversion index, and prevalence of a positive crossover or posterior wall sign. Conclusions Lateral center-edge angle, ACM angle, Sharp angle, acetabular and extrusion index, and craniocaudal acetabular coverage showed no relevant changes with varying pelvic orientation and can therefore be acquired independent from individual pelvic tilt and rotation in clinical practice. In contrast, anteroposterior acetabular coverage, crossover and posterior wall sign, and retroversion index call for specific efforts that address individual pelvic orientation such as computer-assisted evaluation of radiographs. Level of Evidence Level III, diagnostic study. See the Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Vertical and Horizontal Vegetation Structure across Natural and Modified Habitat Types at Mount Kilimanjaro

In most habitats, vegetation provides the main structure of the environment. This complexity can facilitate biodiversity and ecosystem services. Therefore, measures of vegetation structure can serve as indicators in ecosystem management. However, many structural measures are laborious and require expert knowledge. Here, we used consistent and convenient measures to assess vegetation structure over an exceptionally broad elevation gradient of 866–4550m above sea level at Mount Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. Additionally, we compared (human)-modified habitats, including maize fields, traditionally managed home gardens, grasslands, commercial coffee farms and logged and burned forests with natural habitats along this elevation gradient. We distinguished vertical and horizontal vegetation structure to account for habitat complexity and heterogeneity. Vertical vegetation structure (assessed as number, width and density of vegetation layers, maximum canopy height, leaf area index and vegetation cover) displayed a unimodal elevation pattern, peaking at intermediate elevations in montane forests, whereas horizontal structure (assessed as coefficient of variation of number, width and density of vegetation layers, maximum canopy height, leaf area index and vegetation cover) was lowest at intermediate altitudes. Overall, vertical structure was consistently lower in modified than in natural habitat types, whereas horizontal structure was inconsistently different in modified than in natural habitat types, depending on the specific structural measure and habitat type. Our study shows how vertical and horizontal vegetation structure can be assessed efficiently in various habitat types in tropical mountain regions, and we suggest to apply this as a tool for informing future biodiversity and ecosystem service studies.

Impact of body mass index on long-term clinical outcomes after second-generation drug eluting stent implantation: Insights from the international global RESOLUTE program

BACKGROUND An increased body mass index (BMI) is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular disease and reduction in life expectancy. However, several studies reported improved clinical outcomes in obese patients treated for cardiovascular diseases. The aim of the present study is to investigate the impact of BMI on long-term clinical outcomes after implantation of zotarolimus eluting stents. METHODS Individual patient data were pooled from the RESOLUTE Clinical Program comprising five trials worldwide. The study population was sorted according to BMI tertiles and clinical outcomes were evaluated at 2-year follow-up. RESULTS Data from a total of 5,127 patients receiving the R-ZES were included in the present study. BMI tertiles were as follow: I tertile (≤ 25.95 kg/m(2) -Low or normal weight) 1,727 patients; II tertile (>25.95 ≤ 29.74 kg/m(2) -overweight) 1,695 patients, and III tertile (>29.74 kg/m(2) -obese) 1,705 patients. At 2-years follow-up no difference was found for patients with high BMI (III tertile) compared with patients with normal or low BMI (I tertile) in terms of target lesion failure (I-III tertile, HR [95% CI] = 0.89 [0.69, 1.14], P = 0.341; major adverse cardiac events (I-III tertile, HR [95% CI] = 0.90 [0.72, 1.14], P = 0.389; cardiac death (I-III tertile, HR [95% CI] = 1.20 [0.73, 1.99], P = 0.476); myocardial infarction (I-III tertile, HR [95% CI] = 0.86 [0.55, 1.35], P = 0.509; clinically-driven target lesion revascularization (I-III tertile, HR [95% CI] = 0.75 [0.53, 1.08], P = 0.123; definite or probable stent thrombosis (I-III tertile, HR [95% CI] = 0.98 [0.49, 1.99], P = 0.964. CONCLUSIONS In the present study, the patients' body mass index was found to have no impact on long-term clinical outcomes after coronary artery interventions.

PP080. First trimester umbilical artery end-diastolic flow and pulsatility index: Comparison between preeclampsia and control.

INTRODUCTION The appearance of end-diastolic flow velocities (EDF) in the umbilical artery (UA), usually between 10 and 14 weeks of gestation, has been associated with the opening of the spiral arteries and consequently of the intervillous space. OBJECTIVES The aim of our study was to compare first trimester UA pulsatility index (PI) and EDF between women who developed preeclampsia (cases) and controls. METHODS Our database was searched for cases who had UA Doppler between 10-14 weeks. UA PI and EDF were compared between cases and two gestational age (GA) matched controls. RESULTS 15 cases with severe preeclampsia (PE) were matched to 30 controls. GA with negative EDF was lower than with positive EDF (12.1±0.79 vs. 12.8±0.34; p=0.001). UA PI in cases was higher than in controls, although not significant (cases: 2.18±0.6 vs. CONTROLS 1.92±0.48; p=0.12). However, comparing groups with negative EDF, the difference became significant (PI cases: 2.45±0.57 vs. PI controls: 1.94±0.56; p=0.038), while no difference was found comparing groups with positive EDF. CONCLUSION First trimester UA PI is significantly higher in women which will develop PE than in controls. Interestingly, the timing of screening for PE by UA Doppler seems to play an important issue.

False normal Lung Clearance Index in infants with cystic fibrosis due to software algorithms.

BACKGROUND Lung clearance index (LCI), a marker of ventilation inhomogeneity, is elevated early in children with cystic fibrosis (CF). However, in infants with CF, LCI values are found to be normal, although structural lung abnormalities are often detectable. We hypothesized that this discrepancy is due to inadequate algorithms of the available software package. AIM Our aim was to challenge the validity of these software algorithms. METHODS We compared multiple breath washout (MBW) results of current software algorithms (automatic modus) to refined algorithms (manual modus) in 17 asymptomatic infants with CF, and 24 matched healthy term-born infants. The main difference between these two analysis methods lies in the calculation of the molar mass differences that the system uses to define the completion of the measurement. RESULTS In infants with CF the refined manual modus revealed clearly elevated LCI above 9 in 8 out of 35 measurements (23%), all showing LCI values below 8.3 using the automatic modus (paired t-test comparing the means, P < 0.001). Healthy infants showed normal LCI values using both analysis methods (n = 47, paired t-test, P = 0.79). The most relevant reason for false normal LCI values in infants with CF using the automatic modus was the incorrect recognition of the end-of-test too early during the washout. CONCLUSION We recommend the use of the manual modus for the analysis of MBW outcomes in infants in order to obtain more accurate results. This will allow appropriate use of infant lung function results for clinical and scientific purposes.

Chemical analysis with regard to global and local climatic forcing measured on sediment core GeoB3711-1, GeoB3711-3 and GeoB4917-8

Global and local climatic forcing, e.g. concentration of atmospheric CO2 or insolation, influence the distribution of C3 and C4 plants in southwest Africa. C4 plants dominate in more arid and warmer areas and are favoured by lower pCO2 levels. Several studies have assessed past and present continental vegetation by the analysis of terrestrial n-alkanes in near-coastal deep sea sediments using single samples or a small number of samples from a given climatic stage. The objectives of this study were to evaluate vegetation changes in southwest Africa with regard to climatic changes during the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene and to elucidate the potential of single sample simplifications. We analysed two sediment cores at high resolution, altogether ca. 240 samples, from the Southeast Atlantic Ocean (20°S and 12°S) covering the time spans of 18 to 1 ka and 56 to 2 ka, respectively. Our results for 20°S showed marginally decreasing C4 plant domination (of ca. 5%) during deglaciation based on average chain length (ACL27-33 values) and carbon isotopic composition of the C31 and C33 n-alkanes. Values for single samples from 18 ka and the Holocene overlap and, thus, are not significantly representative of the climatic stages they derive from. In contrast, at 12°S the n-alkane parameters show a clear difference of plant type for the Late Pleistocene (C4 plant domination, 66% C4 on average) and the Holocene (C3 plant domination, 40% C4 on average). During deglaciation vegetation change highly correlates with the increase in pCO2 (r² = 0.91). Short-term climatic events such as Heinrich Stadials or Antarctic warming periods are not reflected by vegetation changes in the catchment area. Instead, smaller vegetation fluctuations during the Late Pleistocene occur in accordance with local variations of insolation.

Index properties, shear strenghts and consolidation characteristics of ODP Hole 164-995A sediments

Geotechnical properties of sediment from Ocean Drilling Program Leg 164 are presented as: (1) normalized shipboard strength ratios from the Cape Fear Diapir, the Blake Ridge Diapir, and the Blake Ridge; and (2) Atterberg limit, vane shear strength, pocket-penetrometer strength, and constant-rate-of-strain consolidation results from Hole 995A, located on the Blake Ridge. This study was conducted to understand the stress history in a region characterized by high sedimentation rates and the presence of gas hydrates. Collectively, the results indicate that sediment from the Blake Ridge exhibits significant underconsolidated behavior, except near the seafloor. At least 10 m of additional overburden was removed by erosion or mass wasting at Hole 993A on the Cape Fear Diapir, compared to nearby sites.

Mapa bioclimático para las travesías de Mendoza (Argentina) basado en la fenología foliar

El objetivo fue generar un mapa bioclimático de la llanura de Mendoza que reflejara las diferencias climáticas expresadas por la actividad de la vegetación (fenología foliar) a escala regional. Se partió de la imagen digital del índice bioclimático de aridez P/ETP, generada en una etapa anterior a partir de una serie temporal de imágenes de índice verde (IVDN), y se recodificó en clases bioclimáticas. Se evaluó en cada clase la influencia antrópica y edáfica sobre las condiciones climáticas de aridez reflejadas por la vegetación. Se graficó la marcha fenológica anual media para cada bioclima a partir de una reconstrucción del IVDN. Las clases de clima húmedo y subhúmedo son de carácter edáfico debido al riego (oasis). Se proponen las clases: subdesértico (8,4%), árido inferior (15,3%), árido superior (24,2 %), semiárido inferior (25%) y semiárido superior (27,1%). Cada bioclima tiene una expresión vegetativa diferente en condiciones naturales. La marcha fenológica anual muestra que a mayor aridez menor es el contraste entre el IVDN mínimo y máximo, y que el momento de máxima cobertura vegetal varía de enero (semiárido) a abril (subdesértico). Esta propuesta permite extender y optimizar el conocimiento climático de las estaciones meteorológicas a través de toda la llanura mediante la expresión fenológica de la vegetación.

Composición y distribución del ensamble de Orthoptera (Insecta) en una cuenca árida del norte-centro de Chile

La cuenca del valle del río Elqui (Región de Coquimbo, Chile) es un importante foco de actividad agrofrutícola y turística dentro de la zona norte-centro de Chile cuyas condiciones climáticas se caracterizan por el aumento de la temperatura y la disminución de la precipitación. En el contexto del calentamiento global es esperable que la hoya hidrográfica del río Elqui experimente una tendencia ascendente en la aridez, alteraciones en la fenología de plantas y artrópodos y cambios en la riqueza y biodiversidad local de los ecosistemas. En este sentido, en el presente trabajo, mediante colectas manuales en sectores de secano y cultivo de las localidades de Marquesa, Diaguitas y Pisco Elqui en el valle de Elqui, se documentó la composición taxonómica y abundancia del ensamble de Orthoptera (Insecta) en la cuenca del valle del Elqui, se analizó la distribución espacial de las especies constituyentes del ensamble mediante SIG y se documentó la importancia de Orthoptera como potenciales plagas dentro de esta cuenca árida del norte-centro de Chile. Se capturó un total de 204 ejemplares, correspondientes a cuatro familias y seis especies, de las cuales cinco especies fueron capturadas en sectores de secano y cultivo. Acrididae fue la familia más abundante y diversa dentro de los sitios de estudio (65,2% del total capturado) y Trimerotropis ochraceipennis la especie más abundante dentro del sitio de estudio. Las familias Gryllidae, Ommexechidae y Tristiridae estuvieron representadas por una sola especie. La presencia de estas especies en los sectores de secano puede constituir un factor de riesgo para la agricultura, al considerarse potenciales focos irruptivos frente a determinadas condiciones climáticas, y además ocasionar daños en cultivos agrícolas, plantaciones y pastizales. La relación entre la microdistribución del ensamble de Orthoptera presente en el valle de Elqui y el índice NDVI mostró una clara preferencia por la vegetación densa y poco densa (NDVI = 0,1 - 0,49). El presente trabajo es una primera aproximación al estudio de los ortópteros considerados plagas potenciales para el valle del Elqui.