Remaining useful life prediction using elliptical basis function network and Markov Chain

This paper presents a novel method for remaining useful life prediction using the Elliptical Basis Function (EBF) network and a Markov chain. The EBF structure is trained by a modified Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm in order to take into account the missing covariate set. No explicit extrapolation is needed for internal covariates while a Markov chain is constructed to represent the evolution of external covariates in the study. The estimated external and the unknown internal covariates constitute an incomplete covariate set which are then used and analyzed by the EBF network to provide survival information of the asset. It is shown in the case study that the method slightly underestimates the remaining useful life of an asset which is a desirable result for early maintenance decision and resource planning.

Introduction : the South Asia Infant Feeding Research Network (SAIFRN)

The South Asia Infant Feeding Research Network (SAIFRN) was established in 2007 to foster and coordinate a research partnership among South Asian and international research groups interested in infant and young child feeding. SAIFRN has brought together a mix of researchers and program managers from Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka together with international partners from Australia. As the first activity, SAIFRN conducted a series of analyses using Demographic and Health Surveys of Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka and the National Family Health Survey of India. The results highlight that most indicators of infant and young child feeding in these four countries have not reached the targeted levels. The rates vary considerably by country, and the factors associated with poor feeding practices were not always consistent across countries. Driven by the ultimate goal of improved child survival in the region, SAIFRN wishes to expand its partnerships with governmental and nongovernmental organizations that share common interests both within and outside the South Asia region. In the future, SAIFRN hopes to provide more opportunities to researchers in the region to improve their skills by participating in capacity-building programs in collaboration with international partner institutions, and looks forward to liaising with potential donors to support such activities.

Network

Network has emerged from a contempory worldwide phenomenon, culturally manifested as a consequence of globalization and the knowledge economy. It is in this context that the internet revolution has prompted a radical re-ordering of social and institutional relations and the associated structures, processes and places which support them. Within the duality of virtual space and the augmentation of traditional notions of physical place, the organizational structures pose new challenges for the design professions. Technological developments increasingly permit communication anytime and anywhere, and provide the opportunity for both synchronous and asynchronous collaboration. The resultant ecology formed through the network enterprise has resulted in an often convolted and complex world wherein designers are forced to consider the relevance and meaning of this new context. The role of technology and that of space are thus interwined in the relation between the network and the individual workplace. This paper explores a way to inform the interior desgn process for contemporary workplace environments. It reports on both theoretical and practical outcomes through an Australia-wide case study of three collaborating, yet independent business entities. It further suggests the link between workplace design and successful business innovation being realized between partnering organizations in Great Britain. Evidence presented indicates that, for architects and interior designers, the scope of the problem has widened, the depth of knowledge required to provide solutions has increased, and the rules of engagement are required to change. The ontological and epistemological positions adopted in the study enabled the spatial dimensions to be examined from both within and beyond the confines of a traditional design only viewpoint. Importantly it highlights the significance of a trans-disiplinary collaboration in dealing with the multiple layers and complexity of the contemporary social and business world, from both a research and practice perspective.

Social network markets and 'public thought'

This paper approaches its topic in a somewhat crabwise manner, but hopefully by that means it may succeed in reaching its objective without being eaten alive. It comprises a critique of a recent internet post called ‘The Shock of Inclusion’ by Clay Shirky (his contribution to The Edge World Question of 2010), in which he claims (among other things) that ‘the average quality of public thought has collapsed.’

Measurement of affect during simulation-based training

Training designed to support and strengthen higher-order mental abilities now often involves immersion in Virtual Reality where dangerous real world scenarios can be safely replicated. However despite the growing popularity of advanced training simulations, methods for evaluating their use rely heavily on subjective measures or analysis of final outcomes. Without dynamic, objective performance measures the outcome of training in terms of impact on cognitive skills and ability to transfer newly acquired skills to the real world is unknown. The relationship between affective intensity and cognitive learning provides a potential new approach to ensure the processing of cognitions which occur prior to final outcomes, such as problem-solving and decision-making, are adequately evaluated. This paper describes the technical aspects of pilot work recently undertaken to develop a new measurement tool designed to objectively track individual affect levels during simulation-based training.

A measurement instrument for process modeling research : development, test and procedural model

Process modeling is an emergent area of Information Systems research that is characterized through an abundance of conceptual work with little empirical research. To fill this gap, this paper reports on the development and validation of an instrument to measure user acceptance of process modeling grammars. We advance an extended model for a multi-stage measurement instrument development procedure, which incorporates feedback from both expert and user panels. We identify two main contributions: First, we provide a validated measurement instrument for the study of user acceptance of process modeling grammars, which can be used to assist in further empirical studies that investigate phenomena associated with the business process modeling domain. Second, in doing so, we describe in detail a procedural model for developing measurement instruments that ensures high levels of reliability and validity, which may assist fellow scholars in executing their empirical research.

Implementation of an embedded sensor network for the coordination of Slocum gliders for coastal monitoring and observation

Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) are revolutionizing oceanography through their versatility, autonomy and endurance. However, they are still an underutilized technology. For coastal operations, the ability to track a certain feature is of interest to ocean scientists. Adaptive and predictive path planning requires frequent communication with significant data transfer. Currently, most AUVs rely on satellite phones as their primary communication. This communication protocol is expensive and slow. To reduce communication costs and provide adequate data transfer rates, we present a hardware modification along with a software system that provides an alternative robust disruption- tolerant communications framework enabling cost-effective glider operation in coastal regions. The framework is specifically designed to address multi-sensor deployments. We provide a system overview and present testing and coverage data for the network. Additionally, we include an application of ocean-model driven trajectory design, which can benefit from the use of this network and communication system. Simulation and implementation results are presented for single and multiple vehicle deployments. The presented combination of infrastructure, software development and deployment experience brings us closer to the goal of providing a reliable and cost-effective data transfer framework to enable real-time, optimal trajectory design, based on ocean model predictions, to gather in situ measurements of interesting and evolving ocean features and phenomena.

Improving matching process in social network

Online dating networks, a type of social network, are gaining popularity. With many people joining and being available in the network, users are overwhelmed with choices when choosing their ideal partners. This problem can be overcome by utilizing recommendation methods. However, traditional recommendation methods are ineffective and inefficient for online dating networks where the dataset is sparse and/or large and two-way matching is required. We propose a methodology by using clustering, SimRank to recommend matching candidates to users in an online dating network. Data from a live online dating network is used in evaluation. The success rate of recommendation obtained using the proposed method is compared with baseline success rate of the network and the performance is improved by double.

A social matching system for an online dating network : a preliminary study

Due to the change in attitudes and lifestyles, people expect to find new partners and friends via various ways now-a-days. Online dating networks create a network for people to meet each other and allow making contact with different objectives of developing a personal, romantic or sexual relationship. Due to the higher expectation of users, online matching companies are trying to adopt recommender systems. However, the existing recommendation techniques such as content-based, collaborative filtering or hybrid techniques focus on users explicit contact behaviors but ignore the implicit relationship among users in the network. This paper proposes a social matching system that uses past relations and user similarities in finding potential matches. The proposed system is evaluated on the dataset collected from an online dating network. Empirical analysis shows that the recommendation success rate has increased to 31% as compared to the baseline success rate of 19%.

Use of IEEE 1588-2008 for a sampled value process bus in transmission substations

IEC Technical Committee 57 (TC57) published a series of standards and technical reports for “Communication networks and systems for power utility automation” as the IEC 61850 series. Sampled value (SV) process buses allow for the removal of potentially lethal voltages and damaging currents inside substation control rooms and marshalling kiosks, reduce the amount of cabling required in substations, and facilitate the adoption of non-conventional instrument transformers. IEC 61850-9-2 provides an inter-operable solution to support multi-vendor process bus solutions. A time synchronisation system is required for a SV process bus, however the details are not defined in IEC 61850-9-2. IEEE Std 1588-2008, Precision Time Protocol version 2 (PTPv2), provides the greatest accuracy of network based time transfer systems, with timing errors of less than 100 ns achievable. PTPv2 is proposed by the IEC Smart Grid Strategy Group to synchronise IEC 61850 based substation automation systems. IEC 61850-9-2, PTPv2 and Ethernet are three complementary protocols that together define the future of sampled value digital process connections in substations. The suitability of PTPv2 for use with SV is evaluated, with preliminary results indicating that steady state performance is acceptable (jitter < 300 ns), and that extremely stable grandmaster oscillators are required to ensure SV timing requirements are met when recovering from loss of external synchronisation (such as GPS).

Measurement of the net environmental benefit of offsetting in Queensland

The process of offsetting land against unavoidable disturbance of development sites in Queensland will benefit from a method that allows the best possible selection to be made of alternative lands. With site selection now advocated through a combination of Regional Ecosystem and Land Capability classifications state-wide, a case study has determined methods of assessing the functional lift – that is, measures of net environmental gain – of such action. Outcomes with potentially high functional lift are determined, that offer promise not only for endangered ecosystems but also for managing adjacent conservation reserves.

Assessment of commercial network RTK user positioning performance over long inter-station distances

The paper provides an assessment of the performance of commercial Real Time Kinematic (RTK) systems over longer than recommended inter-station distances. The experiments were set up to test and analyse solutions from the i-MAX, MAX and VRS systems being operated with three triangle shaped network cells, each having an average inter-station distance of 69km, 118km and 166km. The performance characteristics appraised included initialization success rate, initialization time, RTK position accuracy and availability, ambiguity resolution risk and RTK integrity risk in order to provide a wider perspective of the performance of the testing systems. ----- ----- The results showed that the performances of all network RTK solutions assessed were affected by the increase in the inter-station distances to similar degrees. The MAX solution achieved the highest initialization success rate of 96.6% on average, albeit with a longer initialisation time. Two VRS approaches achieved lower initialization success rate of 80% over the large triangle. In terms of RTK positioning accuracy after successful initialisation, the results indicated a good agreement between the actual error growth in both horizontal and vertical components and the accuracy specified in the RMS and part per million (ppm) values by the manufacturers. ----- ----- Additionally, the VRS approaches performed better than the MAX and i-MAX when being tested under the standard triangle network with a mean inter-station distance of 69km. However as the inter-station distance increases, the network RTK software may fail to generate VRS correction and then may turn to operate in the nearest single-base RTK (or RAW) mode. The position uncertainty reached beyond 2 meters occasionally, showing that the RTK rover software was using an incorrect ambiguity fixed solution to estimate the rover position rather than automatically dropping back to using an ambiguity float solution. Results identified that the risk of incorrectly resolving ambiguities reached 18%, 20%, 13% and 25% for i-MAX, MAX, Leica VRS and Trimble VRS respectively when operating over the large triangle network. Additionally, the Coordinate Quality indicator values given by the Leica GX1230 GG rover receiver tended to be over-optimistic and not functioning well with the identification of incorrectly fixed integer ambiguity solutions. In summary, this independent assessment has identified some problems and failures that can occur in all of the systems tested, especially when being pushed beyond the recommended limits. While such failures are expected, they can offer useful insights into where users should be wary and how manufacturers might improve their products. The results also demonstrate that integrity monitoring of RTK solutions is indeed necessary for precision applications, thus deserving serious attention from researchers and system providers.

Flight testing of an augmented separation management system providing separation protection during failure of the central communication network

Future air traffic management concepts often involve the proposal of automated separation management algorithms that replaces human air traffic controllers. This paper proposes a new type of automated separation management algorithm (based on the satisficing approach) that utilizes inter-aircraft communication and a track file manager (or bank of Kalman filters) that is capable of resolving conflicts during periods of communication failure. The proposed separation management algorithm is tested in a range of flight scenarios involving during periods of communication failure, in both simulation and flight test (flight tests were conducted as part of the Smart Skies project). The intention of the conducted flight tests was to investigate the benefits of using inter-aircraft communication to provide an extra layer of safety protection in support air traffic management during periods of failure of the communication network. These benefits were confirmed.

Contexts, hybrids and network governance : a comparison of three case-studies in infrastructure governance

While hybrid governance arrangements have been a major element of organisational architecture for some time, the contemporary operating environment has brought to the fore new conditions and expectations for the governance of entities that span conventional public sector departments, private firms and community organisations or groups. These conditions have resulted in a broader array of mixed governance configurations including Public Private Partnerships, alliances, and formal and informal collaborations. In some such arrangements, market based or ‘complete’ contractual relationships have been introduced to replace or supplement existing traditional ‘hierarchical’ and/or newer relational ‘network-oriented’ institutional associations. While there has been a greater reliance on collaborative or relational contracts as an underpinning institutional model, other modes of hierarchy and market may remain in operation. The success of these emergent hybrid forms has been mixed. There are examples of hybrids that have been well adopted, achieving the desired goals of efficiency, effectiveness and financial accountability; while others have experienced implementation problems which have undermined their results. This paper postulates that the cultural and institutional context within which hybrids operate may contribute to the implementation processes employed and the level of success attained. The paper explores hybrid arrangements through three cases of the use of inter-organisational arrangements in three different national contexts. Distilling the various elements of hybrids and the impact of institutional context will provide important insights for those charged with the responsibility for the formation and key infrastructure and public value development.

Bayesian network for risk of diarrhea associated with the use of recycled water

Estimating potential health risks associated with recycled (reused) water is highly complex given the multiple factors affecting water quality. We take a conceptual model, which represents the factors and pathways by which recycled water may pose a risk of contracting gastroenteritis, convert the conceptual model to a Bayesian net, and quantify the model using one expert’s opinion. This allows us to make various predictions as to the risks posed under various scenarios. Bayesian nets provide an additional way of modeling the determinants of recycled water quality and elucidating their relative influence on a given disease outcome. The important contribution to Bayesian net methodology is that all model predictions, whether risk or relative risk estimates, are expressed as credible intervals.