Report of the Study Group on “ Fisheries and Ecosystem Response to Recent Regime Shifts”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. DECADAL-SCALE CLIMATE EVENTS 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Basin-scale Patterns 1.3 Long Time Series in the North Pacific 1.4 Decadal Climate Variability in Ecological Regions of the North Pacific 1.5 Mechanisms 1.6 References 2. COHERENT REGIONAL RESPONSES 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Central North Pacific (CNP) 2.3 California Current System (CCS) 2.4 Gulf of Alaska (GOA) 2.5 Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands 2.6 Western North Pacific (WNP) 2.7 Coherence in Regional Responses to the 1998 Regime Shift 2.8 Climate Indicators for Detecting Regime Shifts 2.9 References 3. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF MARINE RESOURCES 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Response Time of Biota to Regime Shifts 3.3 Response Time of Management to Regime Shifts 3.4 Provision of Stock Assessment Advice 3.5 Decision Rules 3.6 References 4. SUGGESTED LITERATURE 4.1 Climate Regimes 4.2 Impacts on Lower Trophic Levels 4.3 Impacts on Fish and Higher Trophic Levels 4.4 Impacts on Ecosystems and Possible Mechanisms 4.5 Regimes and Fisheries Management APPENDIX 1: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC A1.1 Introduction A1.2 Physical Oceanography A1.3 Lower Trophic Levels A1.4 Invertebrates A1.5 Fishes A1.6 References APPENDIX 2: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT SYSTEM A2.1 Introduction A2.2 Physical Oceanography A2.3 Lower Trophic Levels A2.4 Invertebrates A2.5 Fishes A2.6 References APPENDIX 3: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA A3.1 Introduction A3.2 Physical Oceanography A3.3 Lower Trophic Levels A3.4 Invertebrates A3.5 Fishes A3.6 Higher Trophic Levels A3.7 Coherence in Gulf of Alaska Fish A3.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Recruitment and Survival Rate A3.9 References APPENDIX 4: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS A4.1 Introduction A4.2 Bering Sea Environmental Variables and Physical Oceanography A4.3 Bering Sea Lower Trophic Levels A4.4 Bering Sea Invertebrates A4.5 Bering Sea Fishes A4.6 Bering Sea Higher Trophic Levels A4.7 Coherence in Bering Sea Fish Responses A4.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Bering Fish Recruitment and Survival Rate A4.9 Aleutian Islands A4.10 References APPENDIX 5: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC A5.1 Introduction A5.2 Sea of Okhotsk A5.3 Tsushima Current Region and Kuroshio/Oyashio Current Region A5.4 Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea A5.5 References (168 page document)

Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary Habitat Mapping: Survey report and classification of side scan sonar data from surveys HMPR-114-2004-02 and HMPR-116-2005-01.

The Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary (OCNMS) continues to invest significant resources into seafloor mapping activities along Washington’s outer coast (Intelmann and Cochrane 2006; Intelmann et al. 2006; Intelmann 2006). Results from these annual mapping efforts offer a snapshot of current ground conditions, help to guide research and management activities, and provide a baseline for assessing the impacts of various threats to important habitat. During the months of August 2004 and May and July 2005, we used side scan sonar to image several regions of the sea floor in the northern OCNMS, and the data were mosaicked at 1-meter pixel resolution. Video from a towed camera sled, bathymetry data, sedimentary samples and side scan sonar mapping were integrated to describe geological and biological aspects of habitat. Polygon features were created and attributed with a hierarchical deep-water marine benthic classification scheme (Greene et al. 1999). For three small areas that were mapped with both side scan sonar and multibeam echosounder, we made a comparison of output from the classified images indicating little difference in results between the two methods. With these considerations, backscatter derived from multibeam bathymetry is currently a costefficient and safe method for seabed imaging in the shallow (<30 meters) rocky waters of OCNMS. The image quality is sufficient for classification purposes, the associated depths provide further descriptive value and risks to gear are minimized. In shallow waters (<30 meters) which do not have a high incidence of dangerous rock pinnacles, a towed multi-beam side scan sonar could provide a better option for obtaining seafloor imagery due to the high rate of acquisition speed and high image quality, however the high probability of losing or damaging such a costly system when deployed as a towed configuration in the extremely rugose nearshore zones within OCNMS is a financially risky proposition. The development of newer technologies such as intereferometric multibeam systems and bathymetric side scan systems could also provide great potential for mapping these nearshore rocky areas as they allow for high speed data acquisition, produce precisely geo-referenced side scan imagery to bathymetry, and do not experience the angular depth dependency associated with multibeam echosounders allowing larger range scales to be used in shallower water. As such, further investigation of these systems is needed to assess their efficiency and utility in these environments compared to traditional side scan sonar and multibeam bathymetry. (PDF contains 43 pages.)

Seasonal, horizontal, and vertical distribution of phytoplankton chlorophyll a in the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf Ecosystem

The broad scale features in the horizontal, vertical, and seasonal distribution of phytoplankton chlorophyll a on the northeast U.S. continental shelf are described based on 57,088 measurements made during 78 oceanographic surveys from 1977 through 1988. Highest mean water column chlorophyll concentration (Chlw,) is usually observed in nearshore areas adjacent to the mouths of the estuaries in the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB), over the shallow water on Georges Bank, and a small area sampled along the southeast edge of Nantucket Shoals. Lowest Chlw «0.125 ug l-1) is usually restricted to the most seaward stations sampled along the shelf-break and the central deep waters in the Gulf of Maine. There is at least a twofold seasonal variation in phytoplankton biomass in all areas, with highest phytoplankton concentrations (m3) and highest integrated standing stocks (m2) occurring during the winter-spring (WS) bloom, and the lowest during summer, when vertical density stratification is maximal. In most regions, a secondary phytoplankton biomass pulse is evident during convective destratification in fall, usually in October. Fall bloom in some areas of Georges Bank approaches the magnitude of the WS-bloom, but Georges Bank and Middle Atlantic Bight fall blooms are clearly subordinate to WS-blooms. Measurements of chlorophyll in two size-fractions of the phytoplankton, netplankton (>20 um) and nanoplankton «20 um), revealed that the smaller nanoplankton are responsible for most of the phytoplankton biomass on the northeast U.S. shelf. Netplankton tend to be more abundant in nearshore areas of the MAB and shallow water on Georges Bank, where chlorophyll a is usually high; nanoplankton dominate deeper water at the shelf-break and deep water in the Gulf of Maine, where Chlw is usually low. As a general rule, the percent of phytoplankton in the netplankton size-fraction increases with increasing depth below surface and decreases proceeding offshore. There are distinct seasonal and regional patterns in the vertical distribution of chlorophyll a and percent netplankton, as revealed in composite vertical profiles of chlorophyll a constructed for 11 layers of the water column. Subsurface chlorophyll a maxima are ubiquitous during summer in stratified water. Chlorophyll a in the subsurface maximum layer is generally 2-8 times the concentration in the overlying and underlying water and approaches 50 to 75% of the levels observed in surface water during WS-bloom. The distribution of the ratio of the subsurface maximum chlorophyll a to surface chlorophyll a (SSR) during summer parallels the shelfwide pattern for stability, indexed as the difference in density (sigma-t) between 40 m and surface (stability 40. The weakest stability and lowest SSR's are found in shallow tidally-mixed water on Georges Bank; the greatest stability and highest SSR's (8-12:1) are along the mid and outer MAB shelf, over the winter residual water known as the "cold band." On Georges Bank, the distribution of SSR and the stability40 are roughly congruent with the pattern for maximum surface tidal current velocity, with values above 50 cms-1 defining SSR's less than 2:1 and the well-mixed area. Physical factors (bathymetry, vertical mixing by strong tidal currents, and seasonal and regional differences in the intensity and duration of vertical stratification) appear to explain much of the variability in phytoplankton chlorophyll a throughout this ecosystem. (PDF file contains 126 pages.)

Comparison of Pax1/9 locus reveals 500-Myr-old syntenic block and evolutionary conserved noncoding regions

Identification of conserved genomic regions within and between different genomes is crucial when studying genome evolution. Here, we described regions of strong synteny conservation between vertebrate deuterostomes (tetrapods and teleosts) and invertebrat

Secondary structural analysis of the mRNA regions encoding the hemagglutinin cleavage site basic amino acids of the avian influenza virus H5N1 subtype samples

Here we report the codon bias and the mRNA secondary structural features of the hemagglutinin (HA) cleavage site basic amino acid regions of avian influenza virus H5N1 subtypes. We have developed a dynamic extended folding strategy to predict RNA secondar

Phylogenetic origins of the Himalayan endemic Dolomiaea, Diplazoptilon and Xanthopappus (Asteraceae : Cardueae) based on three DNA regions

Background and Aims It is an enduring question as to the mechanisms leading to the high diversity and the processes producing endemics with unusual morphologies in the Himalayan alpine region. In the present study, the phylogenetic relationships and origins of three such endemic genera were analysed, Dolomiaea, Diplazoptilon and Xanthopappus, all in the tribe Cardueae of Asteraceae.Methods The nuclear rDNA internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and plastid trnL-F and psbA-trnH regions of these three genera were sequenced. The same regions for other related genera in Cardueae were also sequenced or downloaded from GenBank. Phylogenetic trees were constructed from individual and combined data sets of the three types of sequences using maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses.Key Results The phylogenetic tree obtained allowed earlier hypotheses concerning the relationships of these three endemic genera based on gross morphology to be rejected. Frolovia and Saussurea costus were deeply nested within Dolomiaea, and the strong statistical support for the Dolomiaea-Frolovia clade suggested that circumscription of Dolomiaea should be more broadly redefined. Diplazoptilon was resolved as sister to Himalaiella, and these two together are sister to Lipschitziella. The clade comprising these three genera is sister to Jurinea, and together these four genera are sister to the Dolomiaea-Frolovia clade. Xanthopappus, previously hypothesized to be closely related to Carduus, was found to be nested within a well-supported but not fully resolved Onopordum group with Alfredia, Ancathia, Lamyropappus, Olgaea, Synurus and Syreitschikovia, rather than the Cardinis group. The crude dating based on ITS sequence divergence revealed that the divergence time of Dolomiaea-Frolovia from its sister group probably occurred 13.6-12.2 million years ago (Ma), and the divergence times of the other two genera, Xanthopappus and Diplazoptilon, from their close relatives around 5.7-4.7 Ma and 2.0-1.6 Ma, respectively.Conclusions The findings provide an improved understanding of the intergeneric relationships in Cardueae. The crude calibration of lineages indicates that the uplifts of the Qiinghai -Tibetan Plateau since the Miocene might have served as a continuous stimulus for the production of these morphologically aberrant endemic elements of the Himalayan flora.

Coccolithophore species as indicators of surface oceanographic conditions in the vicinity of Azores islands

During summer 2008 and spring 2009, surface oceanographic surveys were carried out around three islands of the Azores archipelago (Terceira, Sao Miguel and Santa Maria) to assess the phytoplankton distribution and associated physico-chemical processes. The Azores archipelago is a major feature in the biogeochemical North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre (NAST) province although its influence on the productivity of the surrounding ocean is poorly known. Surface phytoplankton was studied by microscopy and HPLC (High Precision Liquid Chromatography). The mean values for biomass proxy Chlorophyll a (Chla) ranged from 0.04 to 0.55 mu g L-1 (Chla maximum = 0.86 mu g L-1) and coccolithophores were the most abundant group, followed by small flagellates, Cyanobacteria, diatoms and dinoflagellates being the least abundant group. The distribution of phytoplankton and coccolithophore species in particular presented seasonal differences and was consistent with the nearshore influence of warm subtropical waters from the south Azores current and colder subpolar waters from the north. The satellite-derived circulation patterns showed southward cold water intrusions off Terceira and northward warm water intrusions off Santa Maria. The warmer waters signal was confirmed by the subtropical coccolithophore assemblage, being Discosphaera tubifera a constant presence under these conditions. The regions of enhanced biomass, either resulting from northern cooler waters or from island induced processes, were characterized by the presence of Emiliania huxleyi. Diatoms and dinoflagellates indicated coastal and regional processes of nutrient enrichment and areas of physical stability, respectively.

Genome-wide scans of three independent sets of 90 Irish multiplex schizophrenia families and follow-up of selected regions in all families provides evidence for multiple susceptibility genes

From our linkage study of Irish families with a high density of schizophrenia, we have previously reported evidence for susceptibility genes in regions 5q21-31, 6p24-21, 8p22-21, and 10p15-p11. In this report, we describe the cumulative results from independent genome scans of three a priori random subsets of 90 families each, and from multipoint analysis of all 270 families in ten regions. Of these ten regions, three (13q32, 18p11-q11, and 18q22-23) did not generate scores above the empirical baseline pairwise scan results, and one (6q13-26) generated a weak signal. Six other regions produced more positive pairwise and multipoint results. They showed the following maximum multipoint H-LOD (heterogeneity LOD) and NPL scores: 2p14-13: 0.89 (P = 0.06) and 2.08 (P = 0.02), 4q24-32: 1.84 (P = 0.007) and 1.67 (P = 0.03), 5q21-31: 2.88 (P= 0.0007), and 2.65 (P = 0.002), 6p25-24: 2.13 (P = 0.005) and 3.59 (P = 0.0005), 6p23: 2.42 (P = 0.001) and 3.07 (P = 0.001), 8p22-21: 1.57 (P = 0.01) and 2.56 (P = 0.005), 10p15-11: 2.04 (P = 0.005) and 1.78 (P = 0.03). The degree of 'internal replication' across subsets differed, with 5q, 6p, and 8p being most consistent and 2p and 10p being least consistent. On 6p, the data suggested the presence of two susceptibility genes, in 6p25-24 and 6p23-22. Very few families were positive on more than one region, and little correlation between regions was evident, suggesting substantial locus heterogeneity. The levels of statistical significance were modest, as expected from loci contributing to complex traits. However, our internal replications, when considered along with the positive results obtained in multiple other samples, suggests that most of these six regions are likely to contain genes that influence liability to schizophrenia.

Investigation of secure wireless regions using configurable beamforming on WARP

In this paper, we examine a novel approach to network security against passive eavesdroppers in a ray-tracing model and implement it on a hardware platform. By configuring antenna array beam patterns to transmit the data to specific regions, it is possible to create defined regions of coverage for targeted users. By adapting the antenna configuration according to the intended user’s channel state information, this allows the vulnerability of the physical regions to eavesdropping to be reduced. We present the application of our concept to 802.11n networks where an antenna array is employed at the access point. A range of antenna array configurations are examined by simulation and then realized using the Wireless Open-Access Research Platform(WARP)

Seismic behavior of capacity designed masonry walls in low seismicity regions

Eurocode 8 representing a new generation of structural design codes in Europe defines ‎requirements for the design of buildings against earthquake action. In Central and ‎Western Europe, the newly defined earthquake zones and corresponding design ground ‎acceleration values, will lead in many cases to earthquake actions which are remarkably ‎higher than those defined so far by the design codes used until now in Central Europe. ‎ In many cases, the weak points of masonry structures during an earthquake are the corner ‎regions of the walls. Loading of masonry walls by earthquake action leads in most cases ‎to high shear forces. The corresponding bending moment in such a wall typically causes a ‎significant increase of the eccentricity of the normal force in the critical wall cross ‎section. This in turn leads ultimately to a reduction of the size of the compression zone in ‎unreinforced walls and a high concentration of normal stresses and shear stresses in the ‎corner regions. ‎ Corner-Gap-Elements, consisting of a bearing beam located underneath the wall and ‎made of a sufficiently strong material (such as reinforced concrete), reduce the effect of ‎the eccentricity of the normal force and thus restricts the pinching effect of the ‎compression zone. In fact, the deformation can be concentrated in the joint below the ‎bearing beam. According to the principles of the Capacity Design philosophy, the ‎masonry itself is protected from high stresses as a potential cause of brittle failure. ‎ Shaking table tests at the NTU Athens Earthquake Engineering Laboratory have proven ‎the effectiveness of the Corner-Gap-Element. The following presentation will cover the ‎evaluation of various experimental results as well as a numerical modeling of the ‎observed phenomena.‎

Selection of candidate coding DNA barcoding regions for use on land plants

An in silico screen of 41 of the 81 coding regions of the Nicotiana plastid genome generated a shortlist of 12 candidates as DNA barcoding loci for land plants. These loci were evaluated for amplification and sequence variation against a reference set of 98 land plant taxa. The deployment of multiple primers and a modified multiplexed tandem polymerase chain reaction yielded 85–94% amplification across taxa, and mean sequence differences between sister taxa of 6.1 from 156 bases of accD to 22 from 493 bases of matK. We conclude that loci should be combined for effective diagnosis, and recommend further investigation of the following six loci: matK, rpoB, rpoC1, ndhJ, ycf5 and accD.

Modelling the formation of necrotic regions in avascular tumours

The mechanisms underlying the formation of necrotic regions within avascular tumours are not well understood. In this paper, we examine the relative roles of nutrient deprivation and of cell death, from both the proliferating phase of the cell cycle via apoptosis and from the quiescent phase via necrosis, in changing the structure within multicellular tumour spheroids and particularly the accumulation of dead cell material in the centre. A mathematical model is presented and studied that accounts for nutrient diffusion, changes in cell cycling rates, the two different routes to cell death as well as active motion of cells and passive motion of the dead cell material. In studying the accumulation of dead cell matter we do not distinguish between the route by which each was formed. The resulting mathematical model is examined for a number of scenarios. Results show that in many cases the size of the necrotic core is closely correlated with low levels in nutrient concentration. However, in certain cases, particularly where the rate of necrosis is large, the resulting necrotic core can lead to regions of non-negligible nutrient concentration-dependent upon the mode of cell death.

Molecular archaeology of Flaviviridae untranslated regions: duplicated RNA structures in the replication enhancer of flaviviruses and pestiviruses emerged via convergent evolution.

RNA secondary structures in the 3'untranslated regions (3'UTR) of the viruses of the family Flaviviridae, previously identified as essential (promoters) or beneficial (enhancers) for replication, have been analysed. Duplicated enhancer elements are revealed as a global feature in the evolution of the 3'UTR of distantly related viruses within the genera Flavivirus and Pestivirus. For the flaviviruses, duplicated structures occur in the 3'UTR of all four distantly related ecological virus subgroups (tick-borne, mosquito-borne, no known vector and insect-specific flaviviruses (ISFV). RNA structural differences distinguish tick-borne flaviviruses with discrete pathogenetic characteristics. For Aedes- and Culex-associated ISFV, secondary RNA structures with different conformations display numerous short ssRNA direct repeats, exposed as loops and bulges. Long quadruplicate regions comprise almost the entire 3'UTR of Culex-associated ISFV. Extended duplicated sequence and associated RNA structures were also discovered in the 3'UTR of pestiviruses. In both the Flavivirus and Pestivirus genera, duplicated RNA structures were localized to the enhancer regions of the 3'UTR suggesting an adaptive role predominantly in wild-type viruses. We propose sequence reiteration might act as a scaffold for dimerization of proteins involved in assembly of viral replicase complexes. Numerous nucleotide repeats exposed as loops/bulges might also interfere with host immune responses acting as a molecular sponge to sequester key host proteins or microRNAs.

Climatology and variability of trace gases in extratropical double-tropopause regions from MLS, HIRDLS, and ACE-FTS measurements

Upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), the Aura High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS), and the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier transform spectrometer (ACE-FTS) are used to present the first global climatological comparison of extratropical, nonpolar trace gas distributions in double-tropopause (DT) and single-tropopause (ST) regions. Stratospheric tracers, O3, HNO3, and HCl, have lower mixing ratios ∼2–8 km above the primary (lowermost) tropopause in DT than in ST regions in all seasons, with maximum Northern Hemisphere (NH) differences near 50% in winter and 30% in summer. Southern Hemisphere winter differences are somewhat smaller, but summer differences are similar in the two hemispheres. H2O in DT regions of both hemispheres shows strong negative anomalies in November through February and positive anomalies in July through October, reflecting the strong seasonal cycle in H2O near the tropical tropopause. CO and other tropospheric tracers examined have higher DT than ST values 2–7 km above the primary tropopause, with the largest differences in winter. Large DT-ST differences extend to high NH latitudes in fall and winter, with longitudinal maxima in regions associated with enhanced wave activity and subtropical jet variations. Results for O3 and HNO3 agree closely between MLS and HIRDLS, and differences from ACE-FTS are consistent with its sparse and irregular midlatitude sampling. Consistent signatures in climatological trace gas fields provide strong evidence that transport from the tropical upper troposphere into the layer between double tropopauses is an important pathway for stratosphere-troposphere exchange.

Regional subsidies and industrial prospects of lagging regions

Large and sustained differences in economic performance across regions of developing countries have long provided motivation for fiscal incentives designed to encourage firm entry in lagging areas. Empirical evidence in support of these policies has, however, been weak at best. This paper undertakes a direct evaluation of the most prominent fiscal incentive policy in Brazil, the Fundos Constitucionais de Financiamento (Constitutional Funds). In doing so, we exploit valuable features of the Brazilian Ministry of Labor's RAIS data set to address two important elements of firm location decisions that have the potential to bias an assessment of the Funds: (i) firm “family structure” (in particular, proximity to headquarters for vertically integrated firms), and (ii) unobserved spatial heterogeneity (with the potential to confound the effects of the Funds). We find that the pull of firm headquarters is very strong relative to the Constitutional Funds for vertically integrated firms, but that, with non-parametric controls for time invariant spatial heterogeneity, the Funds provide statistically and economically significant incentives for firms in many of the targeted industries.