Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: test of a novel hierarchical framework with an Iberian endemic plant

Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

Immune responses to JC virus in patients with multiple sclerosis treated with natalizumab: a cross-sectional and longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Natalizumab is used to prevent relapses and progression of disability in patients with multiple sclerosis but has been associated with progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML). We aimed to better understand the associations between JC virus, which causes PML, and natalizumab treatment. METHODS: We prospectively assessed patients with multiple sclerosis who started treatment with natalizumab. Blood and urine samples were tested for the presence of JC virus DNA with quantitative real-time PCR before treatment and at regular intervals after treatment onset for up to 18 months. At the same timepoints, by use of proliferation and enzyme-linked immunospot assays, the cellular immune responses against JC virus, Epstein-Barr virus, cytomegalovirus, myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein, and myelin oligodendrocyte basic protein (MOBP) were assessed. Humoral immune response specific to JC virus was assessed with an enzyme immunoassay. The same experiments were done on blood samples from patients with multiple sclerosis before and 10 months after the start of interferon beta treatment. FINDINGS: We assessed 24 patients with multiple sclerosis who received natalizumab and 16 who received interferon beta. In patients treated with natalizumab, JC virus DNA was not detected in the blood at any timepoint. However, JC virus DNA was present in the urine of six patients and in most of these patients the concentrations of JC virus DNA were stable over time. Compared with pretreatment values, the cellular immune response was increased to cytomegalovirus at 6 months, to JC virus at 1, 9, and 12 months, and to Epstein-Barr virus and MOBP at 12 months. Humoral responses remained stable. There were no increases in cellular immune responses specific to the viruses or myelin proteins in the 16 patients treated with interferon beta. INTERPRETATION: Natalizumab increases cellular immune responses specific to viruses and myelin proteins in the peripheral blood after 1 year, without evidence of viral reactivation. FUNDING: Swiss National Foundation, Swiss Society for Multiple Sclerosis, and Biogen Dompé.

Effectiveness of glatiramer acetate compared to other multiple sclerosis therapies.

OBJECTIVE To assess the effectiveness of glatiramer acetate (GA) compared to other multiple sclerosis (MS) therapies in routine clinical practice. MATERIALS AND METHODS Observational cohort study carried out in MS patients treated with GA (GA cohort) or other MS therapies -switched from GA- (non-GA cohort). Study data were obtained through review of our MS patient database. The primary endpoint was the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores reached at the end of treatment/last check-up. RESULTS A total of 180 patients were included: GA cohort n = 120, non-GA cohort n = 60. Patients in the GA cohort showed better EDSS scores at the end of treatment/last check-up (mean ± SD, 2.8 ± 1.8 vs. 3.9 ± 2.2; P = 0.001) and were 1.65 times more likely to show better EDSS scores compared to the non-GA cohort (odds ratio, 0.606; 95%CI, 0.436-0.843; P = 0.003). Patients in the GA cohort showed longer mean time to reach EDSS scores of 6 (209.1 [95%CI, 187.6-230.6] vs. 164.3 [95% CI, 137.0-191.6] months; P = 0.004) and slower disability progression (hazard ratio, 0.415 [95%CI, 0.286-0.603]; P < 0.001). The annualized relapse rate was lower in the GA cohort (mean ± SD, 0.5 ± 0.5 vs. 0.8 ± 0.5; P = 0.001) and patients' quality of life was improved in this study cohort compared to the non-GA cohort (mean ± SD, 0.7 ± 0.1 vs. 0.6 ± 0.2; P = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS GA may slow down the progression of EDSS scores to a greater extent than other MS therapies, as well as achieving a greater reduction in relapses and a greater improvement in patients' quality of life. Switching from GA to other MS therapies has not proved to entail a better response to treatment.

Health-related quality of life assessment in people with multiple sclerosis and their family caregivers. A multicenter study in Catalonia (Southern Europe)

Objectives: To measure the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients and their caregivers, and to assess which factors can best describe HRQoL. Methods: A cross-sectional multicenter study of nine hospitals enrolled MS patients and their caregivers who attended outpatient clinics consecutively. The instruments used were the SF-36 for patients and the SF-12 and GHQ-12 for caregivers. Classification and regression tree analysis was used to analyze the explanatory factors of HRQoL. Results: A total of 705 patients (mean age 40.4 years, median Expanded Disability Status Scale 2.5, 77.8% with relapsing-remitting MS) and 551 caregivers (mean age 45.4 years) participated in the study. MS patients had significantly lower HRQoL than in the general population (physical SF-36: 39.9; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 39.1–40.6; mental SF-36: 44.4; 95% CI: 43.5–45.3). Caregivers also presented lower HRQoL than general population, especially in its mental domain (mental SF-12: 46.4; 95% CI: 45.5–47.3). Moreover, according to GHQ-12, 27% of caregivers presented probable psychological distress. Disability and co-morbidity in patients, and co-morbidity and employment status in caregivers, were the most important explanatory factors of their HRQoL. Conclusions: Not only the HRQoL of patients with MS, but also that of their caregivers, is indeed notably affected. Caregivers’ HRQoL is close to population of chronic illness even that the patients sample has a mild clinical severity and that caregiving role is a usual task in the study context

Free-living energy expenditure assessed by two different methods in rural Gambian men.

OBJECTIVE: To assess total free-living energy expenditure (EE) in Gambian farmers with two independent methods, and to determine the most realistic free-living EE and physical activity in order to establish energy requirements for rural populations in developing countries. DESIGN: In this cross-sectional study two methods were applied at the same time. SETTING: Three rural villages and Dunn Nutrition Centre Keneba, MRC, The Gambia. SUBJECTS: Eight healthy, male subjects were recruited from three rural Gambian villages in the sub-Sahelian area (age: 25 +/- 4y; weight: 61.2 +/- 10.1 kg; height: 169.5 +/- 6.5 cm, body mass index: 21.2 +/- 2.5 kg/m2). INTERVENTION: We assessed free-living EE with two inconspicuous and independent methods: the first one used doubly labeled water (DLW) (2H2 18O) over a period of 12 days, whereas the second one was based on continuous heart rate (HR) measurements on two to three days using individual regression lines (HR vs EE) established by indirect calorimetry in a respiration chamber. Isotopic dilution of deuterium (2H2O) was also used to assess total body water and hence fat-free mass (FFM). RESULTS: EE assessed by DLW was found to be 3880 +/- 994 kcal/day (16.2 +/- 4.2 MJ/day). Expressed per unit body weight the EE averaged 64.2 +/- 9.3 kcal/kg/d (269 +/- 38 kJ/kg/d). These results were consistent with the EE results assessed by HR: 3847 +/- 605 kcal/d (16.1 +/- 2.5 MJ/d) or 63.4 +/- 8.2 kcal/kg/d (265 +/- 34kJ/kg/d). Physical activity index, expressed as a multiple of basal metabolic rate (BMR), averaged 2.40 +/- 0.41 (DLW) or 2.40 +/- 0.28 (HR). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest an extremely high level of physical activity in Gambian men during intense agricultural work (wet season). This contrasts with the relative food shortage, previously reported during the harvesting period. We conclude that the assessment of EE during the agricultural season in non-industrialized countries needs further investigations in order to obtain information on the energy requirement of these populations. For this purpose the use of the DLW and HR methods have been shown to be useful and complementary.

Forensic intelligence framework. Part II: study of the main generic building blocks and challenges through the examples of illicit drugs and false identity documents monitoring

The development of forensic intelligence relies on the expression of suitable models that better represent the contribution of forensic intelligence in relation to the criminal justice system, policing and security. Such models assist in comparing and evaluating methods and new technologies, provide transparency and foster the development of new applications. Interestingly, strong similarities between two separate projects focusing on specific forensic science areas were recently observed. These observations have led to the induction of a general model (Part I) that could guide the use of any forensic science case data in an intelligence perspective. The present article builds upon this general approach by focusing on decisional and organisational issues. The article investigates the comparison process and evaluation system that lay at the heart of the forensic intelligence framework, advocating scientific decision criteria and a structured but flexible and dynamic architecture. These building blocks are crucial and clearly lay within the expertise of forensic scientists. However, it is only part of the problem. Forensic intelligence includes other blocks with their respective interactions, decision points and tensions (e.g. regarding how to guide detection and how to integrate forensic information with other information). Formalising these blocks identifies many questions and potential answers. Addressing these questions is essential for the progress of the discipline. Such a process requires clarifying the role and place of the forensic scientist within the whole process and their relationship to other stakeholders.

Body composition: overview of methods and future directions of research.

A short overview is given on the most important analytical body composition methods. Principles of the methods and advantages and limitations of the methods are discussed also in relation to other fields of research such as energy metabolism. Attention is given to some new developments in body composition research such as chemical multiple-compartment models, computerized tomography or nuclear magnetic resonance imaging (tissue level), and multifrequency bioelectrical impedance. Possible future directions of body composition research in the light of these new developments are discussed.

A convex optimization framework for global tractography

In this article we present a novel approach for diffusion MRI global tractography. Our formulation models the signal in each voxel as a linear combination of fiber-tract basis func- tions, which consist of a comprehensive set of plausible fiber tracts that are locally compatible with the measured MR signal. This large dictionary of candidate fibers is directly estimated from the data and, subsequently, efficient convex optimization techniques are used for recovering the smallest subset globally best fitting the measured signal. Experimen- tal results conducted on a realistic phantom demonstrate that our approach significantly reduces the computational cost of global tractography while still attaining a reconstruction quality at least as good as the state-of-the-art global methods.

Cytokine mRNA profile of Epstein-Barr virus-stimulated highly differentiated T cells in multiple sclerosis: a pilot study.

The reason why EBV-specific cellular immune responses are abnormal in multiple sclerosis (MS) patients is still missing. In this exploratory pilot study, we assessed IL-1beta, IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-10, IL-17, IFN-gamma, TGF-beta1 and FOXP3 mRNA expression in EBV-stimulated highly differentiated T cells (T(HD)) of MS patients and healthy controls (HC). We found increased levels of IFN-gamma and IL-4 mRNA in CD8+ T(HD) cells of MS patients. All the other tested molecules were expressed similarly in MS patients and HC. Interestingly, increased IFN-gamma and IL-4 suggest that the control of EBV replication may be insufficient in MS patients.

Health inequalities among the elderly in western Europe

Background: This paper analyses gender inequalities in health status and in social determinants of health among the elderly in Western Europe. Methods: Data came from the first wave of the “Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe” (SHARE, 2004). For the purposes of this study a subsample of community-residing people aged 65-85 years with no paid work was selected (4218 men and 5007 women). Multiple logistic regression models separated by sex and adjusted for age and country were fitted. Results: Women were more likely to report poor health status, limitations in mobility and poor mental health. Whereas in both sexes educational attainment was associated with the three health indicators, household income was only related to poor self-rated health among women. The relationship between living arrangements and health differed by gender and was primarily associated with poor mental health. In both sexes, not living with the partner but living with other people and being the household head was related to poor mental health status (aOR=2.14; 95% CI=1.11-4.14 for men and aOR=1.75; 95% CI=1.12-2.72 for women). Additionally, women living with their partner and other(s) and those living alone were more likely to report poor mental health status (aOR=1.67; 95% CI=1.17-2.41 and aOR=1.58; 95% CI=1.26-1.97, respectively). Conclusions: Health inequalities persist among the elderly. Women have poorer health status than men and in both sexes the risk of poor health status increases among those with low educational attainment. Living arrangements are primarily associated with poor mental health status with patterns that differ by gender.

Gender inequality in health among elderly people in a combined framework of socioeconomic position, family characteristics and social support

This study analyses gender inequalities in health among elderly people in Catalonia (Spain) by adopting a conceptual framework that globally considers three dimensions of health determinants : socio-economic position, family characteristics and social support. Data came from the 2006 Catalonian Health Survey. For the purposes of this study a sub-sample of people aged 65–85 years with no paid job was selected (1,113 men and 1,484 women). The health outcomes analysed were self-perceived health status, poor mental health status and long-standing limiting illness. Multiple logistic regression models separated by sex were fitted and a hierarchical model was fitted in three steps. Health status among elderly women was poorer than among the men for the three outcomes analysed. Whereas living with disabled people was positively related to the three health outcomes and confidant social support was negatively associated with all of them in both sexes, there were gender differences in other social determinants of health. Our results emphasise the importance of using an integrated approach for the analysis of health inequalities among elderly people, simultaneously considering socio-economic position, family characteristics and social support, as well as different health indicators, in order fully to understand the social determinants of the health status of older men and women.

Origin and outcome of multiple pregnancies in Bern, Switzerland, 1995-2006 and the current proposal of the Swiss parliament to revise the Swiss law of reproductive medicine: Switzerland quo vadis?

INTRODUCTION: Infertility treatments are a major source of the increase in multiple pregnancies (MPs). AIMS: The aims of the present study were (1.) to investigate the origin and maternal/neonatal outcomes of MP and (2.) to review the different measures that can be adopted to reduce these serious complications. METHODS: The study included all women with multiple births between 1 January 1995 and 31 December 2006 at the University Hospital of Bern, Switzerland. The outcomes associated with the various origins of MP (natural conception, ovarian stimulation [OS] ‒ in-vitro fertilisation [IVF-ICSI]) were analysed using a multinomial logistic regression model. An analysis of the Swiss law on reproductive medicine and its current proposed revision, as well as a literature review using Pubmed, was carried out. RESULTS: A total of 592 MP were registered, 91% (n = 537) resulted in live births. There was significantly more neonatal/maternal morbidity in MP after OS compared with natural conception and even with the IVF-ICSI group. With a policy of elective single embryo transfer (eSET), twin rates after IVF-ICSI can be reduced to <5% and triplets to <1%. CONCLUSIONS: After OS, more triplets are found and the outcome of MP is worse. MP is known to be associated with morbidity, mortality, and economic and social risks. To counteract these complications (1.) better training for physicians performing OS should be encouraged and (2.) the Swiss law on reproductive medicine needs to be changed, with the introduction of eSET policies. This would lead to a dramatic decrease in neonatal and maternal morbidity/mortality as well as significant cost reductions for the Swiss healthcare system.

Topological comparison of methods for predicting transcriptional cooperativity in yeast

Background: The cooperative interaction between transcription factors has a decisive role in the control of the fate of the eukaryotic cell. Computational approaches for characterizing cooperative transcription factors in yeast, however, are based on different rationales and provide a low overlap between their results. Because the wealth of information contained in protein interaction networks and regulatory networks has proven highly effective in elucidating functional relationships between proteins, we compared different sets of cooperative transcription factor pairs (predicted by four different computational methods) within the frame of those networks. Results: Our results show that the overlap between the sets of cooperative transcription factors predicted by the different methods is low yet significant. Cooperative transcription factors predicted by all methods are closer and more clustered in the protein interaction network than expected by chance. On the other hand, members of a cooperative transcription factor pair neither seemed to regulate each other nor shared similar regulatory inputs, although they do regulate similar groups of target genes. Conclusion: Despite the different definitions of transcriptional cooperativity and the different computational approaches used to characterize cooperativity between transcription factors, the analysis of their roles in the framework of the protein interaction network and the regulatory network indicates a common denominator for the predictions under study. The knowledge of the shared topological properties of cooperative transcription factor pairs in both networks can be useful not only for designing better prediction methods but also for better understanding the complexities of transcriptional control in eukaryotes.

Multiuser detection in a dynamic environment — Part II: Joint user identification and parameter estimation

The problem of jointly estimating the number, the identities, and the data of active users in a time-varying multiuser environment was examined in a companion paper (IEEE Trans. Information Theory, vol. 53, no. 9, September 2007), at whose core was the use of the theory of finite random sets on countable spaces. Here we extend that theory to encompass the more general problem of estimating unknown continuous parameters of the active-user signals. This problem is solved here by applying the theory of random finite sets constructed on hybrid spaces. We doso deriving Bayesian recursions that describe the evolution withtime of a posteriori densities of the unknown parameters and data.Unlike in the above cited paper, wherein one could evaluate theexact multiuser set posterior density, here the continuous-parameter Bayesian recursions do not admit closed-form expressions. To circumvent this difficulty, we develop numerical approximationsfor the receivers that are based on Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC)methods (“particle filtering”). Simulation results, referring to acode-divisin multiple-access (CDMA) system, are presented toillustrate the theory.

Mass casualty incidents with multiple burn victims: rationale for a Swiss burn plan.

INTRODUCTION: Mass casualty incidents involving victims with severe burns pose difficult and unique problems for both rescue teams and hospitals. This paper presents an analysis of the published reports with the aim of proposing a rational model for burn rescue and hospital referral for Switzerland. METHODS: Literature review including systematic searches of PubMed/Medline, reference textbooks and journals as well as landmark articles. RESULTS: Since hospitals have limited surge capacities in the event of burn disasters, a special approach to both prehospital and hospital management of these victims is required. Specialized rescue and care can be adequately met and at all levels of needs by deploying mobile burn teams to the scene. These burn teams can bring needed skills and enhance the efficiency of the classical disaster response teams. Burn teams assist with both primary and secondary triage, contribute to initial patient management and offer advice to non-specialized designated hospitals that provide acute care for burn patients with Total Burn Surface Area (TBSA) <20-30%. The main components required for successful deployments of mobile burn teams include socio-economic feasibility, streamlined logistical implementation as well as partnership coordination with other agencies including subsidiary military resources. CONCLUSIONS: Disaster preparedness plans involving burn specialists dispatched from a referral burn center can upgrade and significantly improve prehospital rescue outcome, initial resuscitation care and help prevent an overload to hospital surge capacities in case of multiple burn victims. This is the rationale behind the ongoing development and implementation of the Swiss burn plan.