Risk-based modelling of diffuse land use impacts from rural landscapes upon salmonid fry abundance

Research has demonstrated that landscape or watershed scale processes can influence instream aquatic ecosystems, in terms of the impacts of delivery of fine sediment, solutes and organic matter. Testing such impacts upon populations of organisms (i.e. at the catchment scale) has not proven straightforward and differences have emerged in the conclusions reached. This is: (1) partly because different studies have focused upon different scales of enquiry; but also (2) because the emphasis upon upstream land cover has rarely addressed the extent to which such land covers are hydrologically connected, and hence able to deliver diffuse pollution, to the drainage network However, there is a third issue. In order to develop suitable hydrological models, we need to conceptualise the process cascade. To do this, we need to know what matters to the organism being impacted by the hydrological system, such that we can identify which processes need to be modelled. Acquiring such knowledge is not easy, especially for organisms like fish that might occupy very different locations in the river over relatively short periods of time. However, and inevitably, hydrological modellers have started by building up piecemeal the aspects of the problem that we think matter to fish. Herein, we report two developments: (a) for the case of sediment associated diffuse pollution from agriculture, a risk-based modelling framework, SCIMAP, has been developed, which is distinct because it has an explicit focus upon hydrological connectivity; and (b) we use spatially distributed ecological data to infer the processes and the associated process parameters that matter to salmonid fry. We apply the model to spatially distributed salmon and fry data from the River Eden, Cumbria, England. The analysis shows, quite surprisingly, that arable land covers are relatively unimportant as drivers of fry abundance. What matters most is intensive pasture, a land cover that could be associated with a number of stressors on salmonid fry (e.g. pesticides, fine sediment) and which allows us to identify a series of risky field locations, where this land cover is readily connected to the river system by overland flow. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling habitat-suitability using museum collections: an example with three sympatric Apodemus species from the Alps

Aim, Location Although the alpine mouse Apodemus alpicola has been given species status since 1989, no distribution map has ever been constructed for this endemic alpine rodent in Switzerland. Based on redetermined museum material and using the Ecological-Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA), habitat-suitability maps were computed for A. alpicola, and also for the co-occurring A. flavicollis and A. sylvaticus. Methods In the particular case of habitat suitability models, classical approaches (GLMs, GAMs, discriminant analysis, etc.) generally require presence and absence data. The presence records provided by museums can clearly give useful information about species distribution and ecology and have already been used for knowledge-based mapping. In this paper, we apply the ENFA which requires only presence data, to build a habitat-suitability map of three species of Apodemus on the basis of museum skull collections. Results Interspecific niche comparisons showed that A. alpicola is very specialized concerning habitat selection, meaning that its habitat differs unequivocally from the average conditions in Switzerland, while both A. flavicollis and A. sylvaticus could be considered as 'generalists' in the study area. Main conclusions Although an adequate sampling design is the best way to collect ecological data for predictive modelling, this is a time and money consuming process and there are cases where time is simply not available, as for instance with endangered species conservation. On the other hand, museums, herbariums and other similar institutions are treasuring huge presence data sets. By applying the ENFA to such data it is possible to rapidly construct a habitat suitability model. The ENFA method not only provides two key measurements regarding the niche of a species (i.e. marginality and specialization), but also has ecological meaning, and allows the scientist to compare directly the niches of different species.

Spatial modelling of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) whitmani s.l. (Antunes & Coutinho, 1939) (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) habitat suitability in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil

Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) whitmani s.l.is the main vector of cutaneous leishmaniasis in state of Mato Grosso, but little is known about environmental determinants of its spatial distribution on a regional scale. Entomologic surveys of this sand fly species, conducted between 1996 and 2001 in 41 state municipalities, were used to investigate the relationships between environmental factors and the presence of the species, and to develop a spatial model of habitat suitability. The relationship between averaged CDC light trap indexes and 15 environmental and socio-economic factors were tested by logistic regression (LR) analysis. Spatial layers of deforestation tax and the Brazilian index of gross net production (IGNP) were identified as significant explanatory variables for vector presence in the LR model, and these were then overlaid with habitat maps. The highest habitat suitability in 2001 was obtained for the heavily deforested areas in the Central-North, South, East, and Southwest of Mato Grosso, particularly in municipalities with lower IGNP values.

A multilevel approach to understanding circadian rhythmicity : social and sleep-dependent effects in ants and mice

Résumé françaisLa majorité des organismes vivants sont soumis à l'alternance du jour et de la nuit, conséquence de la rotation de la terre autour de son axe. Ils ont développé un système interne de mesure du temps, appelé horloge circadienne, leur permettant de s'adapter et de synchroniser leur comportement et leur physiologie aux cycles de lumière. Cette dernière est considérée comme étant le signal majeur entraînant l'horloge interne et. par conséquent, les rythmes journaliers d'éveil et de sommeil. Outre sa régulation circadienne, le sommeil est contrôlé par un processus homéostatique qui détermine son besoin. La contribution de ces deux processus dans le fonctionnement cellulaire du cerveau n'a pas encore été investiguée. La mesure de l'amplitude ainsi que de la prévalence des ondes delta de l'EEG (activité delta) constitue un index très fiable du besoin de sommeil. Il a été démontré que cette activité est génétiquement déterminée et associée à un locus de trait quantitatif situé sur le chromosome 13 de la souris.Grâce à des expériences de privation de sommeil et d'analyses de transcriptome du cerveau dans trois souches de souris présentant diverses réponses à la privation de sommeil, nous avons trouvé que Homerla, localisé dans la région d'intérêt du chromosome 13, est le meilleur marqueur du besoin de sommeil. Homerla est impliqué dans la récupération de l'hyperactivité neuronale induite par le glutamate, grâce à son effet tampon sur le calcium intracellulaire. Une fonction fondamentale du sommeil pourrait donc être de protéger le cerveau et de lui permettre de récupérer après une hyperactivité neuronale imposée par une veille prolongée.De plus, nous avons montré que 2032 transcrits sont exprimés rythmiqueraent dans le cerveau de la souris, parmi lesquels seulement 391 le restent après que les animaux aient été privés de sommeil à différents moments au cours des 24 heures. Cette observation montre clairement que la plupart des changements rythmiques au niveau du transcriptome dépendent du sommeil et non de l'horloge circadienne et souligne ainsi l'importance du sommeil dans la physiologie des mammifères.La plupart des expériences concernant les rythmes circadiens ont été réalisées sur des individus isolés en négligeant l'effet du contexte social sur les comportements circadiens. Les espèces sociales, telles que les fourmis, se caractérisent par une division du travail où une répartition des tâches s'effectue entre ses membres. De plus, certaines d'entre elles doivent être pratiquées en continu comme les soins au couvain tandis que d'autres requièrent une activité rythmique comme le fourragement. Ainsi la fourmi est un excellent modèle pour l'étude de 1 influence du contexte social sur les rythmes circadiens.A ces fins, nous avons décidé d'étudier les rythmes circadiens chez une espèce de fourmi Camponotus fellah et de caractériser au niveau moléculaire son horloge circadienne. Nous avons ainsi développé un système vidéo permettant de suivre l'activité locomotrice de tous les individus d'une colonie. Nos résultats montrent que, bien que la plupart des fourmis soient arythmiques à l'intérieur de la colonie, elles développent d'amples rythmes d'activité en isolation. De plus, ces rythmes disparaissent presque aussitôt que la fourmi est réintroduite dans la colonie. Cette rythmicité observée en isolation semble être générée par l'horloge circadienne car elle persiste en condition constante (obscurité totale). Nous avons ensuite regardé si cette apparente arythmie observée dans la colonie résultait d'un effet masquant des interactions sociales sur les rythmes circadiens d'activité. Nos résultats suggèrent que l'horloge interne est fonctionnelle dans la colonie mais que l'expression de ses rythmes au niveau comportemental est inhibée par les interactions sociales. Les analyses moléculaires du statut de l'horloge dans différents contextes sociaux sont actuellement en cours. Le contexte social semble donc un déterminant majeur du comportement circadien chez la fourmi.AbstractAlmost all living organisms on earth are subjected to the alternance of day and night re-sulting from the rotation of the earth around its axis. They have evolved with an internal timing system, termed the circadian clock, enabling them to adapt and synchronize their behavior and physiology to the daily changes in light and related environmental parame¬ters. Light is thought to be the major cue entraining the circadian clock and consequently the rhythms of rest/activity. In addition to its circadian dependent timing, sleep is reg¬ulated by a homeostatic process that determines its need. The contribution of these two processes in the cellular functioning of the brain has not yet been considered. A highly reliable index of the homeostatic process of sleep is the measure of the amplitude and prevalence of the EEG delta waves (delta activity). It has been shown that sleep need, measured by delta activity, is genetically determined and associated with a Quantitative Trait Locus (QTL) located on the mouse chromosome 13. By using sleep deprivation and brain transcriptome profiling in three inbred mouse strains showing different responses to sleep loss, we found that Homerla, localized within this QTL region is the best transcrip¬tional marker of sleep need. Interestingly Homerla is primarily involved in the recovery from glutamate-induced neuronal hyperactivity by its buffering effect on intracellular cal¬cium. A fundamental function of sleep may therefore reside in the protection and recovery of the brain from a neuronal hyperactivity imposed by prolonged wakefulness.Moreover, time course gene expression experiments showed that 2032 brain tran¬scripts present a rhythmic variation, but only 391 of those remain rhythmic when mice are sleep deprived at four time points around the clock. This finding clearly suggests that most changes in gene transcription over the day are sleep-wake dependent rather than clock dependent and underlines the importance of sleep in mammalian physiology.In the second part of this PhD, I was interested in the social influence on circadian behavior. Most experiments done in the circadian field have been performed on isolated individuals and have therefore ignored the effect of the social context on circadian behav-ior. Eusocial insect species such as ants are characterized by a division of labor: colony tasks are distributed among individuals, some of them requiring continuous activity such as nursing or rhythmic ones such as foraging. Thus ants represent a suitable model to study the influence of the social context on the circadian clock and its output rhythms.The aim of this part was to address the effect of social context on circadian rhythms in the ant species Camponotus fellah and to characterize its circadian clock at the molecu¬lar level. We therefore developed a video tracking system to follow the locomotor activity of all individuals in a colony. Our results show that most ants are arrhythmic within the colony, but develop, when subjected to social isolation, strong rhythms of activity that intriguingly disappear when individuals are reintroduced into the colony. The rhythmicity observed in isolated ants seems to be driven by the circadian clock as it persists under constant conditions (complete darkness). We then tested whether the apparent arrhyth- micity in the colony stemmed from a masking effect of social interactions on circadian rhythms. Indeed, we found that circadian clocks of ants in the colony are functional but their expression at the behavioral level is inhibited by social interactions. The molecular assessment of the circadian clock functional state in the different social context is still under investigation. Our results suggest that social context is a major determinant of circadian behavior in ants.

Ecological niche modelling and differentiation between Rhodnius neglectus Lent, 1954 and Rhodnius nasutus Stål, 1859 (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae) in Brazil

Ecological niche modelling was used to predict the potential geographical distribution of Rhodnius nasutus Stål and Rhodnius neglectus Lent, in Brazil and to investigate the niche divergence between these morphologically similar triatomine species. The distribution of R. neglectus covered mainly the cerrado of Central Brazil, but the prediction maps also revealed its occurrence in transitional areas within the caatinga, Pantanal and Amazon biomes. The potential distribution of R. nasutus covered the Northeastern Region of Brazil in the semi-arid caatinga and the Maranhão babaçu forests. Clear ecological niche differences between these species were observed. R. nasutus occurred more in warmer and drier areas than R. neglectus. In the principal component analysis PC1 was correlated with altitude and temperature (mainly temperature in the coldest and driest months) and PC2 with vegetation index and precipitation. The prediction maps support potential areas of co-occurrence for these species in the Maranhão babaçu forests and in caatinga/cerrado transitional areas, mainly in state of Piaui. Entomologists engaged in Chagas disease vector surveillance should be aware that R. neglectus and R. nasutus can occur in the same localities of Northeastern Brazil. Thus, the identification of bugs in these areas should be improved by applying morphometrical and/or molecular methods.

Population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling of angiotensin receptor blockade in healthy volunteers.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic characteristics of angiotensin II receptor antagonists as a therapeutic class. DESIGN: Population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling study. METHODS: The data of 14 phase I studies with 10 different drugs were analysed. A common population pharmacokinetic model (two compartments, mixed zero- and first-order absorption, two metabolite compartments) was applied to the 2685 drug and 900 metabolite concentration measurements. A standard nonlinear mixed effect modelling approach was used to estimate the drug-specific parameters and their variabilities. Similarly, a pharmacodynamic model was applied to the 7360 effect measurements, i.e. the decrease of peak blood pressure response to intravenous angiotensin challenge recorded by finger photoplethysmography. The concentration of drug and metabolite in an effect compartment was assumed to translate into receptor blockade [maximum effect (Emax) model with first-order link]. RESULTS: A general pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) model for angiotensin antagonism in healthy individuals was successfully built up for the 10 drugs studied. Representatives of this class share different pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic profiles. Their effects on blood pressure are dose-dependent, but the time course of the effect varies between the drugs. CONCLUSIONS: The characterisation of PK-PD relationships for these drugs gives the opportunity to optimise therapeutic regimens and to suggest dosage adjustments in specific conditions. Such a model can be used to further refine the use of this class of drugs.

Modelling structural zeros in compositional data

This analysis was stimulated by the real data analysis problem of householdexpenditure data. The full dataset contains expenditure data for a sample of 1224 households. The expenditure is broken down at 2 hierarchical levels: 9 major levels (e.g. housing, food, utilities etc.) and 92 minor levels. There are also 5 factors and 5 covariates at the household level. Not surprisingly, there are a small number of zeros at the major level, but many zeros at the minor level. The question is how best to model the zeros. Clearly, models that tryto add a small amount to the zero terms are not appropriate in general as at least some of the zeros are clearly structural, e.g. alcohol/tobacco for households that are teetotal. The key question then is how to build suitable conditional models. For example, is the sub-composition of spendingexcluding alcohol/tobacco similar for teetotal and non-teetotal households?In other words, we are looking for sub-compositional independence. Also, what determines whether a household is teetotal? Can we assume that it is independent of the composition? In general, whether teetotal will clearly depend on the household level variables, so we need to be able to model this dependence. The other tricky question is that with zeros on more than onecomponent, we need to be able to model dependence and independence of zeros on the different components. Lastly, while some zeros are structural, others may not be, for example, for expenditure on durables, it may be chance as to whether a particular household spends money on durableswithin the sample period. This would clearly be distinguishable if we had longitudinal data, but may still be distinguishable by looking at the distribution, on the assumption that random zeros will usually be for situations where any non-zero expenditure is not small.While this analysis is based on around economic data, the ideas carry over tomany other situations, including geological data, where minerals may be missing for structural reasons (similar to alcohol), or missing because they occur only in random regions which may be missed in a sample (similar to the durables)

Animal dispersal modelling: handling landscape features and related animal choices

Animal dispersal in a fragmented landscape depends on the complex interaction between landscape structure and animal behavior. To better understand how individuals disperse, it is important to explicitly represent the properties of organisms and the landscape in which they move. A common approach to modelling dispersal includes representing the landscape as a grid of equal sized cells and then simulating individual movement as a correlated random walk. This approach uses a priori scale of resolution, which limits the representation of all landscape features and how different dispersal abilities are modelled. We develop a vector-based landscape model coupled with an object-oriented model for animal dispersal. In this spatially explicit dispersal model, landscape features are defined based on their geographic and thematic properties and dispersal is modelled through consideration of an organism's behavior, movement rules and searching strategies (such as visual cues). We present the model's underlying concepts, its ability to adequately represent landscape features and provide simulation of dispersal according to different dispersal abilities. We demonstrate the potential of the model by simulating two virtual species in a real Swiss landscape. This illustrates the model's ability to simulate complex dispersal processes and provides information about dispersal such as colonization probability and spatial distribution of the organism's path.

QoS online routing and MPLS multilevel protection: a survey

A survey of MPLS protection methods and their utilization in combination with online routing methods is presented in this article. Usually, fault management methods pre-establish backup paths to recover traffic after a failure. In addition, MPLS allows the creation of different backup types, and hence MPLS is a suitable method to support traffic-engineered networks. In this article, an introduction of several label switch path backup types and their pros and cons are pointed out. The creation of an LSP involves a routing phase, which should include QoS aspects. In a similar way, to achieve a reliable network the LSP backups must also be routed by a QoS routing method. When LSP creation requests arrive one by one (a dynamic network scenario), online routing methods are applied. The relationship between MPLS fault management and QoS online routing methods is unavoidable, in particular during the creation of LSP backups. Both aspects are discussed in this article. Several ideas on how these actual technologies could be applied together are presented and compared

The central role of mosquito cytochrome P450 CYP6Zs in insecticide detoxification revealed by functional expression and structural modelling.

The resistance of mosquitoes to chemical insecticides is threatening vector control programmes worldwide. Cytochrome P450 monooxygenases (CYPs) are known to play a major role in insecticide resistance, allowing resistant insects to metabolize insecticides at a higher rate. Among them, members of the mosquito CYP6Z subfamily, like Aedes aegypti CYP6Z8 and its Anopheles gambiae orthologue CYP6Z2, have been frequently associated with pyrethroid resistance. However, their role in the pyrethroid degradation pathway remains unclear. In the present study, we created a genetically modified yeast strain overexpressing Ae. aegypti cytochrome P450 reductase and CYP6Z8, thereby producing the first mosquito P450-CPR (NADPH-cytochrome P450-reductase) complex in a yeast recombinant system. The results of the present study show that: (i) CYP6Z8 metabolizes PBAlc (3-phenoxybenzoic alcohol) and PBAld (3-phenoxybenzaldehyde), common pyrethroid metabolites produced by carboxylesterases, producing PBA (3-phenoxybenzoic acid); (ii) CYP6Z8 transcription is induced by PBAlc, PBAld and PBA; (iii) An. gambiae CYP6Z2 metabolizes PBAlc and PBAld in the same way; (iv) PBA is the major metabolite produced in vivo and is excreted without further modification; and (v) in silico modelling of substrate-enzyme interactions supports a similar role of other mosquito CYP6Zs in pyrethroid degradation. By playing a pivotal role in the degradation of pyrethroid insecticides, mosquito CYP6Zs thus represent good targets for mosquito-resistance management strategies.

Cooperation in centralised CATI Household Panel Surveys : A Contact-based Multilevel Analysis to Examine Interviewer, Respondent, and Fieldwork Process Effects

In this research, we analyse the contact-specific mean of the final cooperation probability, distinguishing on the one hand between contacts with household reference persons and with other eligible household members, and on the other hand between first and later contacts. Data comes from two Swiss Household Panel surveys. The interviewer-specific variance is higher for first contacts, especially in the case of the reference person. For later contacts with the reference person, the contact-specific variance dominates. This means that interaction effects and situational factors are decisive. The contact number has negative effects on the performance of contacts with the reference person, positive in the case of other persons. Also time elapsed since the previous contact has negative effects in the case of reference persons. The result of the previous contact has strong effects, especially in the case of the reference person. These findings call for a quick completion of the household grid questionnaire, assigning the best interviewers to conducting the first contact. While obtaining refusals has negative effects, obtaining other contact results has only weak effects on the interviewer's subsequent contact outcome. Using the same interviewer for contacts has no positive effects.

Factors associated with use of community mental health services by schizophrenia patients using multilevel analysis

BACKGROUND Persons with schizophrenia and related disorders may be particularly sensitive to a number of determinants of service use, including those related with illness, socio-demographic characteristics and organizational factors. The objective of this study is to identify factors associated with outpatient contacts at community mental health services of patients with schizophrenia or related disorders. METHODS This cross-sectional study analyzed 1097 patients. The main outcome measure was the total number of outpatient consultations during one year. Independent variables were related to socio-demographic, clinical and use of service factors. Data were collected from clinical records. RESULTS The multilevel linear regression model explained 46.35% of the variance. Patients with significantly more contacts with ambulatory services were not working and were receiving welfare benefits (p = 0.02), had no formal education (p = 0.02), had a global level of severity of two or three (four being the most severe) (p < 0.001), with one or more inpatient admissions (p < 0.001), and in contact with both types of professional (nurses and psychiatrists) (p < 0.001). The patients with the fewest ambulatory contacts were those with diagnoses of persistent delusional disorders (p = 0.04) and those who were attended by four of the 13 psychiatrists (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS As expected, the variables that explained the use of community service could be viewed as proxies for severity of illness. The most surprising finding, however, was that a group of four psychiatrists was also independently associated with use of ambulatory services by patients with schizophrenia or related disorders. More research is needed to carefully examine how professional support networks interact to affect use of mental health.