893 resultados para Modified VaR


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The dynamics of the control of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti Linnaeus, (Diptera, Culicidae) by Bacillus thuringiensis var israelensis has been related with the temperature, density and concentration of the insecticide. A mathematical model for biological control of Aedes aegypti with Bacillus thuringiensis var israelensis (Bti) was constructed by using data from the literature regarding the biology of the vector. The life cycle was described by differential equations. Lethal concentrations (LC50 and LC95) of Bti were determined in the laboratory under different experimental conditions. Temperature, colony, larvae density and bioinsecticide concentration presented marked differences in the analysis of the whole set of variables; although when analyzed individually, only the temperature and concentration showed changes. The simulations indicated an inverse relationship between temperature and mosquito population, nonetheless, faster growth of populations is reached at higher temperatures. As conclusion, the model suggests the use of integrated control strategies for immature and adult mosquitoes in order to achieve a reduction of Aedes aegypti.

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This paper describes a methodology to estimate the coefficients, to test specification hypothesesand to conduct policy exercises in multi-country VAR models with cross unit interdependencies, unit specific dynamics and time variations in the coefficients. The framework of analysis is Bayesian: a prior flexibly reduces the dimensionality of the model and puts structure on the time variations; MCMC methods are used to obtain posterior distributions; and marginal likelihoods to check the fit of various specifications. Impulse responses and conditional forecasts are obtained with the output of MCMC routine. The transmission of certain shocks across countries is analyzed.

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This paper provides updated empirical evidence about the real and nominal effects of monetary policy in Italy, by using structural VAR analysis. We discuss different empirical approaches that have been used in order to identify monetary policy exogenous shocks. We argue that the data support the view that the Bank of Italy, at least in the recent past, has been targeting the rate on overnight interbank loans. Therefore, we interpret shocks to the overnight rate as purely exogenous monetary policy shocks and study how different macroeconomic variables react to such shocks.

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We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model which accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for a particular type of diffuse, for Minnesota-type and for hierarchical priors. Formulas for multistep, multiunit point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided.

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We describe an original case of disseminated infection with Histoplasma capsulatum (Hc) var. duboisii in an African patient with AIDS who migrated to Switzerland. The diagnosis of histoplasmosis was suggested using direct examination of tissues and confirmed in 24 h with a panfungal polymerase chain reaction assay. The variety duboisii of Hc was established using DNA sequencing of the polymorphic genomic region OLE. Molecular tools allow diagnosis of histoplasmosis in 24 h, which is drastically shorter than culture procedures.

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We use subjects actions in modified dictator games to perform a within-subject classification ofindividuals into four different types of interdependent preferences: Selfish, Social Welfaremaximizers, Inequity Averse and Competitive. We elicit beliefs about other subjects actions inthe same modified dictator games to test how much of the existent heterogeneity in others actions is known by subjects. We find that subjects with different interdependent preferences infact have different beliefs about others actions. In particular, Selfish individuals cannotconceive others being non-Selfish while Social Welfare maximizers are closest to the actualdistribution of others actions. We finally provide subjects with information on other subjects actions and re-classify individuals according to their (new) actions in the same modified dictatorgames. We find that social information does not affect Selfish individuals, but that individualswith interdependent preferences are more likely to change their behavior and tend to behavemore selfishly.

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Introduction: The original and modified Wells score are widely used prediction rules for pre-test probability assessment of deep vein thrombosis (DVT). The objective of this study was to compare the predictive performance of both Wells scores in unselected patients with clinical suspicion of DVT.Methods: Consecutive inpatients and outpatients with a clinical suspicion of DVT were prospectively enrolled. Pre-test DVT probability (low/intermediate/high) was determined using both scores. Patients with a non-high probability based on the original Wells score underwent D-dimers measurement. Patients with D-dimers <500 mu g/L did not undergo further testing, and treatment was withheld. All others underwent complete lower limb compression ultrasound, and those diagnosed with DVT were anticoagulated. The primary study outcome was objectively confirmed symptomatic venous thromboembolism within 3 months of enrollment.Results: 298 patients with suspected DVT were included. Of these, 82 (27.5%) had DVT, and 46 of them were proximal. Compared to the modified score, the original Wells score classified a higher proportion of patients as low-risk (53 vs 48%; p<0.01) and a lower proportion as high-risk (17 vs 15%; p=0.02); the prevalence of proximal DVT in each category was similar with both scores (7-8% low, 16-19% intermediate, 36-37% high). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve regarding proximal DVT detection was similar for both scores, but they both performed poorly in predicting isolated distal DVT and DVT in inpatients.Conclusion: The study demonstrates that both Wells scores perform equally well in proximal DVT pre-test probability prediction. Neither score appears to be particularly useful in hospitalized patients and those with isolated distal DVT. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Captures with black and white Shannon traps were undertaken to identify aspects of the behavior of the two cryptic and sympatric species implicated as vectors of cutaneous leishmaniasis, Nyssomyia intermedia (Lutz & Neiva, 1912) and Nyssomyia neivai (Pinto, 1926). The traps were installed side by side, monthly, from July 2001 to June 2002, from 18 to 07 hours, in a peridomicile of Iporanga municipality, state of São Paulo, Brazil. A total of 2,142 specimens were captured, Ny. intermedia (47.4%) and Ny. neivai (50.5%). The white trap was more attractive to both sexes of both species. Males of Ny. neivai predominated (70%) over those of Ny. intermedia on the two traps; on the black trap, the females of Ny. intermedia predominated (63.3%) over those of Ny. neivai (36.7%). Seventy percent of the specimens of both species were captured between 18 and 24 h. Females of Ny. intermedia presented the highest peak at 19-20 h, and those of Ny. neivai at 20-21 h. The highest hourly average for females of Ny. intermedia on the black trap occurred in the winter and that for males in the summer. For Ny. neivai, both sexes predominated in the summer. The two species probably transmit the cutaneous leishmaniasis in the area due to their great predominance.

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Lycaenid caterpillars (Lepidoptera, Lycaenidae) eating flowers of Dalea pennellii var. chilensis (Fabaceae) in the northern Chilean Andes. The shrub Dalea pennellii var. chilensis (Fabaceae) is reported for the first time as a host plant for three Neotropical Polyommatini (Lepidoptera, Lycaenidae, Polyommatinae): Hemiargus ramon (Dognin, 1887), Leptotes trigemmatus (Butler, 1881) and Nabokovia faga (Dognin, 1895), based on two collections performed in the western slopes of the northern Chilean Andes in two consecutive summers. The relative abundance was always above 90% for N. faga while it was always less than 5% for H. ramon and L. trigemmatus. Furthermore, N. faga was not found on inflorescences of other native Fabaceae examined in the study site. This pattern suggests a close relationship between N. faga and D. pennellii var. chilensis, at least at a local scale.

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The taxonomic identity of the butterfly Heliconius melpomene f. pyritosa var. fumigata Zikán, 1937 (Nymphalidae: Heliconiinae) is discussed based on the discovery of the specimen based on which this name was assigned. The specimen is not a variation of Eueides tales surdus Stichel, 1903, as previously stated, but is in fact a variation of H. melpomene f. pyritosa, which is a synonym of Heliconius erato amalfreda Riffarth, 1901.

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The objective of this experiment was to quantify the extramatrical mycelium of the arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungus Glomus etunicatum (Becker & Gerdemann) grown on maize (Zea mays L. var. Piranão) provided with various levels of phosphate fertilizer and harvested at 30, 60 and 90 days after planting (DAP). Total extramatrical mycelium (TEM) was extracted from soil using a modified membrane filtration method, followed by quantification using a grid intersection technique. Active extramatrical mycelium (AEM) proportion was determined using an enzymatic method which measured dehydrogenase activity by following iodonitrotetrazolium reduction. At low levels of added P, there was relatively less TEM than at high levels of added P, but the AEM proportion at low soil P availability was significantly greater than at high soil P.

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Donateur : Teissier, Octave (1825-1904)