The Risk Management of Minimum Return Guarantees

Contracts paying a guaranteed minimum rate of return and a fraction of a positive excess rate, which is specified relative to a benchmark portfolio, are closely related to unit-linked life-insurance products and can be considered as alternatives to direct investment in the underlying benchmark. They contain an embedded power option, and the key issue is the tractable and realistic hedging of this option, in order to rigorously justify valuation by arbitrage arguments and prevent the guarantees from becoming uncontrollable liabilities to the issuer. We show how to determine the contract parameters conservatively and implement robust risk-management strategies.

Determination of the minimum alveolar concentration of isoflurane in Shetland ponies using constant current or constant voltage electrical stimulation

OBJECTIVE: To determine the minimum alveolar concentration (MAC) of isoflurane in Shetland ponies using a sequence of three different supramaximal noxious stimulations at each tested concentration of isoflurane rather than a single stimulation. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective, experimental trial. ANIMALS: Seven 4-year-old, gelding Shetland ponies. METHODS: The MAC of isoflurane was determined for each pony. Three different modes of electrical stimulation were applied consecutively (2 minute intervals): two using constant voltage (90 V) on the gingiva via needle- (CVneedle) or surface-electrodes (CVsurface) and one using constant current (CC; 40 mA) via surface electrodes applied to the skin over the digital nerve. The ability to clearly interpret the responses as positive, the latency of the evoked responses and the inter-electrode resistance were recorded for each stimulus. RESULTS: Individual isoflurane MAC (%) values ranged from 0.60 to 1.17 with a mean (+/-SD) of 0.97 (+/-0.17). The responses were more clearly interpreted with CC, but did not reach statistical significance. The CVsurface mode produced responses with a longer delay. The CVneedle mode was accompanied by variable inter-electrode resistances resulting in uncontrolled stimulus intensity. At 0.9 MAC, the third stimulation induced more positive responses than the first stimulation, independent of the mode of stimulation used. CONCLUSIONS: The MAC of isoflurane in the Shetland ponies was lower than expected with considerable variability among individuals. Constant current surface electrode stimulations were the most repeatable. A summation over the sequence of three supramaximal stimulations was observed around 0.9 MAC. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The possibility that Shetland ponies require less isoflurane than horses needs further investigation. Constant current surface-electrode stimulations were the most repeatable. Repetitive supramaximal stimuli may have evoked movements at isoflurane concentrations that provide immobility when single supramaximal stimulation was applied.

Forcing of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics during the Dalton Minimum

The response of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics to volcanic eruptions and to a decrease in solar activity during the Dalton Minimum is investigated with the fully coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry general circulation model SOCOL-MPIOM (modeling tools for studies of SOlar Climate Ozone Links-Max Planck Institute Ocean Model) covering the time period 1780 to 1840 AD. We carried out several sensitivity ensemble experiments to separate the effects of (i) reduced solar ultra-violet (UV) irradiance, (ii) reduced solar visible and near infrared irradiance, (iii) enhanced galactic cosmic ray intensity as well as less intensive solar energetic proton events and auroral electron precipitation, and (iv) volcanic aerosols. The introduced changes of UV irradiance and volcanic aerosols significantly influence stratospheric dynamics in the early 19th century, whereas changes in the visible part of the spectrum and energetic particles have smaller effects. A reduction of UV irradiance by 15%, which represents the presently discussed highest estimate of UV irradiance change caused by solar activity changes, causes global ozone decrease below the stratopause reaching as much as 8% in the midlatitudes at 5 hPa and a significant stratospheric cooling of up to 2 °C in the mid-stratosphere and to 6 °C in the lower mesosphere. Changes in energetic particle precipitation lead only to minor changes in the yearly averaged temperature fields in the stratosphere. Volcanic aerosols heat the tropical lower stratosphere, allowing more water vapour to enter the tropical stratosphere, which, via HOx reactions, decreases upper stratospheric and mesospheric ozone by roughly 4%. Conversely, heterogeneous chemistry on aerosols reduces stratospheric NOx, leading to a 12% ozone increase in the tropics, whereas a decrease in ozone of up to 5% is found over Antarctica in boreal winter. The linear superposition of the different contributions is not equivalent to the response obtained in a simulation when all forcing factors are applied during the Dalton Minimum (DM) – this effect is especially well visible for NOx/NOy. Thus, this study also shows the non-linear behaviour of the coupled chemistry-climate system. Finally, we conclude that especially UV and volcanic eruptions dominate the changes in the ozone, temperature and dynamics while the NOx field is dominated by the energetic particle precipitation. Visible radiation changes have only very minor effects on both stratospheric dynamics and chemistry.

Impact of a potential 21st century “grand solar minimum” on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone

We investigate the effects of a recently proposed 21st century Dalton minimum like decline of solar activity on the evolution of Earth's climate and ozone layer. Three sets of two member ensemble simulations, radiatively forced by a midlevel emission scenario (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCP4.5), are performed with the atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model AOCCM SOCOL3-MPIOM, one with constant solar activity, the other two with reduced solar activity and different strength of the solar irradiance forcing. A future grand solar minimum will reduce the global mean surface warming of 2 K between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100 by 0.2 to 0.3 K. Furthermore, the decrease in solar UV radiation leads to a significant delay of stratospheric ozone recovery by 10 years and longer. Therefore, the effects of a solar activity minimum, should it occur, may interfere with international efforts for the protection of global climate and the ozone layer.

On the use of Cramér-Rao minimum variance bounds for the design of magnetic resonance spectroscopy experiments

Localized Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (MRS) is in widespread use for clinical brain research. Standard acquisition sequences to obtain one-dimensional spectra suffer from substantial overlap of spectral contributions from many metabolites. Therefore, specially tuned editing sequences or two-dimensional acquisition schemes are applied to extend the information content. Tuning specific acquisition parameters allows to make the sequences more efficient or more specific for certain target metabolites. Cramér-Rao bounds have been used in other fields for optimization of experiments and are now shown to be very useful as design criteria for localized MRS sequence optimization. The principle is illustrated for one- and two-dimensional MRS, in particular the 2D separation experiment, where the usual restriction to equidistant echo time spacings and equal acquisition times per echo time can be abolished. Particular emphasis is placed on optimizing experiments for quantification of GABA and glutamate. The basic principles are verified by Monte Carlo simulations and in vivo for repeated acquisitions of generalized two-dimensional separation brain spectra obtained from healthy subjects and expanded by bootstrapping for better definition of the quantification uncertainties.

Kindersegen und effektive Rituale: Die Jesuiten in China zwischen lokalen Heilspraktiken, tridentinischer Norm und konfuzianischer Obrigkeit

In christlichen Gemeinden, die im 17. Jahrhundert in zahlreichen chinesischen Provinzen entstanden, versuchten die Jesuiten deshalb vor allem, die Heilsbedürfnisse der Gläubigen vor Ort zu befriedigen. Da in der chinesischen Gesellschaft die Fortsetzung der männlichen Linie von grosser Wichtigkeit war, war Kindersegen ein Anliegen erster Ordnung, dem die Jesuiten mit ihren Ritualen zu begegnen hatten. Sie setzten christliche Heilsobjekte oft gegen Kinderlosigkeit ein und standen Frauen bei schwierigen Niederkünften bei. Mit solchen Heilspraktiken, die in China traditionellerweise von lokalen religiösen Spezialisten ausgeführt wurden, traten die Missionare in Konkurrenz mit anderen Anbietern auf dem chinesischen Heilsmarkt. Der Vortrag beleuchtet die Rolle der Jesuiten als religiöse Spezialisten in lokalen christlichen Gemeinden und fragt nach den Spannungen, die sich zwischen dieser Rolle einerseits und den Rollen als katholische Missionare und konfuzianische Literati andererseits ergaben.

Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum

The aim of this work is to elucidate the impact of changes in solar irradiance and energetic particles versus volcanic eruptions on tropospheric global climate during the Dalton Minimum (DM, AD 1780–1840). Separate variations in the (i) solar irradiance in the UV-C with wavelengths λ < 250 nm, (ii) irradiance at wavelengths λ > 250 nm, (iii) in energetic particle spectrum, and (iv) volcanic aerosol forcing were analyzed separately, and (v) in combination, by means of small ensemble calculations using a coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry–climate model. Global and hemispheric mean surface temperatures show a significant dependence on solar irradiance at λ > 250 nm. Also, powerful volcanic eruptions in 1809, 1815, 1831 and 1835 significantly decreased global mean temperature by up to 0.5 K for 2–3 years after the eruption. However, while the volcanic effect is clearly discernible in the Southern Hemispheric mean temperature, it is less significant in the Northern Hemisphere, partly because the two largest volcanic eruptions occurred in the SH tropics and during seasons when the aerosols were mainly transported southward, partly because of the higher northern internal variability. In the simulation including all forcings, temperatures are in reasonable agreement with the tree ring-based temperature anomalies of the Northern Hemisphere. Interestingly, the model suggests that solar irradiance changes at λ < 250 nm and in energetic particle spectra have only an insignificant impact on the climate during the Dalton Minimum. This downscales the importance of top–down processes (stemming from changes at λ < 250 nm) relative to bottom–up processes (from λ > 250 nm). Reduction of irradiance at λ > 250 nm leads to a significant (up to 2%) decrease in the ocean heat content (OHC) between 0 and 300 m in depth, whereas the changes in irradiance at λ < 250 nm or in energetic particles have virtually no effect. Also, volcanic aerosol yields a very strong response, reducing the OHC of the upper ocean by up to 1.5%. In the simulation with all forcings, the OHC of the uppermost levels recovers after 8–15 years after volcanic eruption, while the solar signal and the different volcanic eruptions dominate the OHC changes in the deeper ocean and prevent its recovery during the DM. Finally, the simulations suggest that the volcanic eruptions during the DM had a significant impact on the precipitation patterns caused by a widening of the Hadley cell and a shift in the intertropical convergence zone.

The mentalizing network orchestrates the impact of parochial altruism on social norm enforcement.

Parochial altruism - a preference for altruistic behavior towards ingroup members and mistrust or hostility towards outgroup members--is a pervasive feature in human society and strongly shapes the enforcement of social norms. Since the uniqueness of human society critically depends on the enforcement of norms, the understanding of the neural circuitry of the impact of parochial altruism on social norm enforcement is key, but unexplored. To fill this gap, we measured brain activity with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) while subjects had the opportunity to punish ingroup members and outgroup members for violating social norms. Findings revealed that subjects' strong punishment of defecting outgroup members is associated with increased activity in a functionally connected network involved in sanction-related decisions (right orbitofrontal gyrus, right lateral prefrontal cortex, right dorsal caudatus). Moreover, the stronger the connectivity in this network, the more outgroup members are punished. In contrast, the much weaker punishment of ingroup members who committed the very same norm violation is associated with increased activity and connectivity in the mentalizing-network (dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, bilateral temporo-parietal junction), as if subjects tried to understand or justify ingroup members' behavior. Finally, connectivity analyses between the two networks suggest that the mentalizing-network modulates punishment by affecting the activity in the right orbitofrontal gyrus and right lateral prefrontal cortex, notably in the same areas showing enhanced activity and connectivity whenever third-parties strongly punished defecting outgroup members.