Change Point Estimation in Monitoring Survival Time

Precise identification of the time when a change in a hospital outcome has occurred enables clinical experts to search for a potential special cause more effectively. In this paper, we develop change point estimation methods for survival time of a clinical procedure in the presence of patient mix in a Bayesian framework. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to formulate the change point where there exists a step change in the mean survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including location and magnitude of changes and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM control charts for different magnitude scenarios. The proposed estimator shows a better performance where a longer follow-up period, censoring time, is applied. In comparison with the alternative built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the Bayesian estimator. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

Sri Lanka in global medical research: a scientific analysis of the Sri Lankan research output during 2000-2009

Background Scientific research is an essential component in guiding improvements in health systems. There are no studies examining the Sri Lankan medical research output at international level. The present study evaluated the Sri Lankan research performance in medicine as reflected by the research publications output between years 2000-2009. Methods This study was based on Sri Lankan medical research publication data, retrieved from the SciVerse Scopus® from January 2000 to December 2009. The process of article selection was as follows: Affiliation - 'Sri Lanka' or 'Ceylon', Publication year - 'January 2000 to December 2009' and Subject area - 'Life and Health Sciences'. The articles identified were classified according to disease, medical speciality, institutions, major international collaborators, authors and journals. Results Sri Lanka's cumulative medical publications output between years 2000-2009 was 1,740 articles published in 160 different journals. The average annual publication growth rate was 9.1%. Majority of the articles were published in 'International' (n = 950, 54.6%) journals. Most articles were descriptive studies (n = 611, 35.1%), letters (n-345, 19.8%) and case reports (n = 311, 17.9%). The articles were authored by 148 different Sri Lankan authors from 146 different institutions. The three most prolific local institutions were Universities of; Colombo (n = 547), Kelaniya (n = 246) and Peradeniya (n = 222). Eighty four countries were found to have published collaborative papers with Sri Lankan authors during the last decade. UK was the largest collaborating partner (n = 263, 15.1%). Malaria (n = 75), Diabetes Mellitus (n = 55), Dengue (n = 53), Accidental injuries (n = 42) and Lymphatic filariasis (n = 40) were the major diseases studied. The 1,740 publications were cited 9,708 times, with an average citation of 5.6 per paper. The most cited paper had 203 citations, while there were 597 publications with no citations. The Sri Lankan authors' contribution to the global medical research output during the last decade was only 0.086%. Conclusion The Sri Lankan medical research output during the last decade is only a small fraction of the global research output. There it is a necessity to setup an enabling environment for research, with a proper vision, support, funds and training. In addition, collaborations across the region need to be strengthened to face common regional health challenges. Keywords: Sri Lanka, Medical research, Publication, Analysis

Information sharing in Onesocialweb using a multiple profile manager to better informed medical decision making processes

The study shows an alternative solution to existing efforts at solving the problem of how to centrally manage and synchronise users’ Multiple Profiles (MP) across multiple discrete social networks. Most social network users hold more than one social network account and utilise them in different ways depending on the digital context (Iannella, 2009a). They may, for example, enjoy friendly chat on Facebook1, professional discussion on LinkedIn2, and health information exchange on PatientsLikeMe3 In this thesis the researcher proposes a framework for the management of a user’s multiple online social network profiles. A demonstrator, called Multiple Profile Manager (MPM), will be showcased to illustrate how effective the framework will be. The MPM will achieve the required profile management and synchronisation using a free, open, decentralized social networking platform (OSW) that was proposed by the Vodafone Group in 2010. The proposed MPM will enable a user to create and manage an integrated profile (IP) and share/synchronise this profile with all their social networks. The necessary protocols to support the prototype are also proposed by the researcher. The MPM protocol specification defines an Extensible Messaging and Presence Protocol (XMPP) extension for sharing vCard and social network accounts information between the MPM Server, MPM Client, and social network sites (SNSs). . Therefore many web users need to manage disparate profiles across many distributed online sources. Maintaining these profiles is cumbersome, time-consuming, inefficient, and may lead to lost opportunity. The writer of this thesis adopted a research approach and a number of use cases for the implementation of the project. The use cases were created to capture the functional requirements of the MPM and to describe the interactions between users and the MPM. In the research a development process was followed in establishing the prototype and related protocols. The use cases were subsequently used to illustrate the prototype via the screenshots taken of the MPM client interfaces. The use cases also played a role in evaluating the outcomes of the research such as the framework, prototype, and the related protocols. An innovative application of this project is in the area of public health informatics. The researcher utilised the prototype to examine how the framework might benefit patients and physicians. The framework can greatly enhance health information management for patients and more importantly offer a more comprehensive personal health overview of patients to physicians. This will give a more complete picture of the patient’s background than is currently available and will prove helpful in providing the right treatment. The MPM prototype and related protocols have a high application value as they can be integrated into the real OSW platform and so serve users in the modern digital world. They also provide online users with a real platform for centrally storing their complete profile data, efficiently managing their personal information, and moreover, synchronising the overall complete profile with each of their discrete profiles stored in their different social network sites.

Early local functional changes in the human diabetic retina : a global flash multifocal electroretinogram study

Purpose: To investigate early functional changes of local retinal defects in type II diabetic patients using the global flash multifocal electroretinogram (MOFO mfERG). Methods: Thirty-eight diabetic patients and 14 age-matched controls were recruited. Nine of the diabetics were free from diabetic retinopathy (DR), while the remainder had mild to moderate non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy. The MOFO mfERG was performed at high (98%) and low (46%) contrast levels. MfERG responses were grouped into 35 regions for comparison with DR classification at those locations. Z-scores of the regional mfERG responses were compared across different types of DR defects. Results: The mfERG waveform consisted of the direct component (DC) and the induced component (IC). Local reduction in DC and IC amplitudes were found in diabetic patients with and without DR. With increasing severity of retinopathy, there was a further deterioration in amplitude of both components. Under MOFO mfERG paradigm, amplitude was a useful screening parameter. Conclusion: The MOFO mfERG can help in detecting early functional anomalies before the appearance of visible signs, and may assist in monitoring further functional deterioration in diabetic patients.

Medical ultrasound imaging

Ultrasound is used extensively in the field of medical imaging. In this paper, the basic principles of ultrasound are explained using ‘everyday’ physics. Topics include the generation of ultrasound, basic interactions with material and the measurement of blood flow using the Doppler effect.

Functional and advanced functional and causal relationship diagrams for remote condition monitoring

Analysing the condition of an asset is a big challenge as there can be many aspects which can contribute to the overall functional reliability of the asset that have to be considered. In this paper we propose a two-step functional and causal relationship diagram (FCRD) to address this problem. In the first step, the FCRD is designed to facilitate the analysis of the condition of an asset by evaluating the interdependence (functional and causal) relationships between different components of the asset with the help of a relationship diagram. This is followed by the advanced FCRD (AFCRD) which refines the information from the FCRD into a comprehensive and manageable format. This new two-step methodology for asset condition monitoring is tested and validated for the case of a water treatment plant. © IMechE 2012.

Damage quantification techniques in acoustic emission monitoring

Acoustic emission (AE) analysis is one of the several diagnostic techniques available nowadays for structural health monitoring (SHM) of engineering structures. Some of its advantages over other techniques include high sensitivity to crack growth and capability of monitoring a structure in real time. The phenomenon of rapid release of energy within a material by crack initiation or growth in form of stress waves is known as acoustic emission (AE). In AE technique, these stress waves are recorded by means of suitable sensors placed on the surface of a structure. Recorded signals are subsequently analysed to gather information about the nature of the source. By enabling early detection of crack growth, AE technique helps in planning timely retrofitting or other maintenance jobs or even replacement of the structure if required. In spite of being a promising tool, some challenges do still exist behind the successful application of AE technique. Large amount of data is generated during AE testing, hence effective data analysis is necessary, especially for long term monitoring uses. Appropriate analysis of AE data for quantification of damage level is an area that has received considerable attention. Various approaches available for damage quantification for severity assessment are discussed in this paper, with special focus on civil infrastructure such as bridges. One method called improved b-value analysis is used to analyse data collected from laboratory testing.

Using fiber Bragg grating in geothermal monitoring

Earthquake precursor monitoring is the foundation of earthquake prediction and geothermal monitoring is one of the basic methods of earthquake precursor monitoring. High temperature well contains more information and therefore its monitoring is more important. However, electric sensors are hard to meet the monitoring requirements of high sensitivity and long lifetime. For a better observation of the earthquake precursor, a high sensitive fiber Bragg grating (FBG) temperature sensor is designed to monitoring a well at 87.5±1◦C. The performance of the FBG sensor demonstrates that it’s quite possible that applying FBG to high-sensitivity temperature-monitoring fields, such as geothermal monitoring. As far as we known, it is the first time that trying a high sensitive FBG temperature sensor in a practical application, let alone in the field of geothermal monitoring.

Extending persistent monitoring by combining ocean models and Markov decision processes

Ocean processes are complex and have high variability in both time and space. Thus, ocean scientists must collect data over long time periods to obtain a synoptic view of ocean processes and resolve their spatiotemporal variability. One way to perform these persistent observations is to utilise an autonomous vehicle that can remain on deployment for long time periods. However, such vehicles are generally underactuated and slow moving. A challenge for persistent monitoring with these vehicles is dealing with currents while executing a prescribed path or mission. Here we present a path planning method for persistent monitoring that exploits ocean currents to increase navigational accuracy and reduce energy consumption.

Hospital outpatient responses to potential driving impairment due to prescribed medications

Driving and using prescription medicines that have the potential to impair driving is an emerging research area. To date it is characterised by a limited (although growing) number of studies and methodological complexities that make generalisations about impairment due to medications difficult. Consistent evidence has been found for the impairing effects of hypnotics, sedative antidepressants and antihistamines, and narcotic analgesics, although it has been estimated that as many as nine medication classes have the potential to impair driving (Alvarez & del Rio, 2000; Walsh, de Gier, Christopherson, & Verstraete, 2004). There is also evidence for increased negative effects related to concomitant use of other medications and alcohol (Movig et al., 2004; Pringle, Ahern, Heller, Gold, & Brown, 2005). Statistics on the high levels of Australian prescription medication use suggest that consumer awareness of driving impairment due to medicines should be examined. One web-based study has found a low level of awareness, knowledge and risk perceptions among Australian drivers about the impairing effects of various medications on driving (Mallick, Johnston, Goren, & Kennedy, 2007). The lack of awareness and knowledge brings into question the effectiveness of the existing countermeasures. In Australia these consist of the use of ancillary warning labels administered under mandatory regulation and professional guidelines, advice to patients, and the use of Consumer Medicines Information (CMI) with medications that are known to cause impairment. The responsibility for the use of the warnings and related counsel to patients primarily lies with the pharmacist when dispensing relevant medication. A review by the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) noted that in practice, advice to patients may not occur and that CMI is not always available (TGA, 2002). Researchers have also found that patients' recall of verbal counsel is very low (Houts, Bachrach, Witmer, Tringali, Bucher, & Localio, 1998). With healthcare observed as increasingly being provided in outpatient conditions (Davis et al., 2006; Vingilis & MacDonald, 2000), establishing the effectiveness of the warning labels as a countermeasure is especially important. There have been recent international developments in medication categorisation systems and associated medication warning labels. In 2005, France implemented a four-tier medication categorisation and warning system to improve patients' and health professionals' awareness and knowledge of related road safety issues (AFSSAPS, 2005). This warning system uses a pictogram and indicates the level of potential impairment in relation to driving performance through the use of colour and advice on the recommended behaviour to adopt towards driving. The comparable Australian system does not indicate the severity level of potential effects, and does not provide specific guidelines on the attitude or actions that the individual should adopt towards driving. It is reliant upon the patient to be vigilant in self-monitoring effects, to understand the potential ways in which they may be affected and how serious these effects may be, and to adopt the appropriate protective actions. This thesis investigates the responses of a sample of Australian hospital outpatients who receive appropriate labelling and counselling advice about potential driving impairment due to prescribed medicines. It aims to provide baseline data on the understanding and use of relevant medications by a Queensland public hospital outpatient sample recruited through the hospital pharmacy. It includes an exploration and comparison of the effect of the Australian and French medication warning systems on medication user knowledge, attitudes, beliefs and behaviour, and explores whether there are areas in which the Australian system may be improved by including any beneficial elements of the French system. A total of 358 outpatients were surveyed, and a follow-up telephone survey was conducted with a subgroup of consenting participants who were taking at least one medication that required an ancillary warning label about driving impairment. A complementary study of 75 French hospital outpatients was also conducted to further investigate the performance of the warnings. Not surprisingly, medication use among the Australian outpatient sample was high. The ancillary warning labels required to appear on medications that can impair driving were prevalent. A subgroup of participants was identified as being potentially at-risk of driving impaired, based on their reported recent use of medications requiring an ancillary warning label and level of driving activity. The sample reported previous behaviour and held future intentions that were consistent with warning label advice and health protective action. Participants did not express a particular need for being advised by a health professional regarding fitness to drive in relation to their medication. However, it was also apparent from the analysis that the participants would be significantly more likely to follow advice from a doctor than a pharmacist. High levels of knowledge in terms of general principles about effects of alcohol, illicit drugs and combinations of substances, and related health and crash risks were revealed. This may reflect a sample specific effect. Emphasis is placed in the professional guidelines for hospital pharmacists that make it essential that advisory labels are applied to medicines where applicable and that warning advice is given to all patients on medication which may affect driving (SHPA, 2006, p. 221). The research program applied selected theoretical constructs from Schwarzer's (1992) Health Action Process Approach, which has extended constructs from existing health theories such as the Theory of Planned Behavior (Ajzen, 1991) to better account for the intention-behaviour gap often observed when predicting behaviour. This was undertaken to explore the utility of the constructs in understanding and predicting compliance intentions and behaviour with the mandatory medication warning about driving impairment. This investigation revealed that the theoretical constructs related to intention and planning to avoid driving if an effect from the medication was noticed were useful. Not all the theoretical model constructs that had been demonstrated to be significant predictors in previous research on different health behaviours were significant in the present analyses. Positive outcome expectancies from avoiding driving were found to be important influences on forming the intention to avoid driving if an effect due to medication was noticed. In turn, intention was found to be a significant predictor of planning. Other selected theoretical constructs failed to predict compliance with the Australian warning label advice. It is possible that the limited predictive power of a number of constructs including risk perceptions is due to the small sample size obtained at follow up on which the evaluation is based. Alternately, it is possible that the theoretical constructs failed to sufficiently account for issues of particular relevance to the driving situation. The responses of the Australian hospital outpatient sample towards the Australian and French medication warning labels, which differed according to visual characteristics and warning message, were examined. In addition, a complementary study with a sample of French hospital outpatients was undertaken in order to allow general comparisons concerning the performance of the warnings. While a large amount of research exists concerning warning effectiveness, there is little research that has specifically investigated medication warnings relating to driving impairment. General established principles concerning factors that have been demonstrated to enhance warning noticeability and behavioural compliance have been extrapolated and investigated in the present study. The extent to which there is a need for education and improved health messages on this issue was a core issue of investigation in this thesis. Among the Australian sample, the size of the warning label and text, and red colour were the most visually important characteristics. The pictogram used in the French labels was also rated highly, and was salient for a large proportion of the sample. According to the study of French hospital outpatients, the pictogram was perceived to be the most important visual characteristic. Overall, the findings suggest that the Australian approach of using a combination of visual characteristics was important for the majority of the sample but that the use of a pictogram could enhance effects. A high rate of warning recall was found overall and a further important finding was that higher warning label recall was associated with increased number of medication classes taken. These results suggest that increased vigilance and care are associated with the number of medications taken and the associated repetition of the warning message. Significantly higher levels of risk perception were found for the French Level 3 (highest severity) label compared with the comparable mandatory Australian ancillary Label 1 warning. Participants' intentions related to the warning labels indicated that they would be more cautious while taking potentially impairing medication displaying the French Level 3 label compared with the Australian Label 1. These are potentially important findings for the Australian context regarding the current driving impairment warnings about displayed on medication. The findings raise other important implications for the Australian labelling context. An underlying factor may be the differences in the wording of the warning messages that appear on the Australian and French labels. The French label explicitly states "do not drive" while the Australian label states "if affected, do not drive", and the difference in responses may reflect that less severity is perceived where the situation involves the consumer's self-assessment of their impairment. The differences in the assignment of responsibility by the Australian (the consumer assesses and decides) and French (the doctor assesses and decides) approaches for the decision to drive while taking medication raises the core question of who is most able to assess driving impairment due to medication: the consumer, or the health professional? There are pros and cons related to knowledge, expertise and practicalities with either option. However, if the safety of the consumer is the primary aim, then the trend towards stronger risk perceptions and more consistent and cautious behavioural intentions in relation to the French label suggests that this approach may be more beneficial for consumer safety. The observations from the follow-up survey, although based on a small sample size and descriptive in nature, revealed that just over half of the sample recalled seeing a warning label about driving impairment on at least one of their medications. The majority of these respondents reported compliance with the warning advice. However, the results indicated variation in responses concerning alcohol intake and modifying the dose of medication or driving habits so that they could continue to drive, which suggests that the warning advice may not be having the desired impact. The findings of this research have implications for current countermeasures in this area. These have included enhancing the role that prescribing doctors have in providing warnings and advice to patients about the impact that their medication can have on driving, increasing consumer perceptions of the authority of pharmacists on this issue, and the reinforcement of the warning message. More broadly, it is suggested that there would be benefit in a wider dissemination of research-based information on increased crash risk and systematic monitoring and publicity about the representation of medications in crashes resulting in injuries and fatalities. Suggestions for future research concern the continued investigation of the effects of medications and interactions with existing medical conditions and other substances on driving skills, effects of variations in warning label design, individual behaviours and characteristics (particularly among those groups who are dependent upon prescription medication) and validation of consumer self-assessment of impairment.

Towards semantic search and inference in electronic medical records : an approach using concept-based information retrieval

Background This paper presents a novel approach to searching electronic medical records that is based on concept matching rather than keyword matching. Aim The concept-based approach is intended to overcome specific challenges we identified in searching medical records. Method Queries and documents were transformed from their term-based originals into medical concepts as defined by the SNOMED-CT ontology. Results Evaluation on a real-world collection of medical records showed our concept-based approach outperformed a keyword baseline by 25% in Mean Average Precision. Conclusion The concept-based approach provides a framework for further development of inference based search systems for dealing with medical data.

Use of hierarchical cluster analysis to assess the representativeness of a baseline groundwater quality monitoring network: comparison of New Zealand’s national and regional groundwater monitoring programs

Baseline monitoring of groundwater quality aims to characterize the ambient condition of the resource and identify spatial or temporal trends. Sites comprising any baseline monitoring network must be selected to provide a representative perspective of groundwater quality across the aquifer(s) of interest. Hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) has been used as a means of assessing the representativeness of a groundwater quality monitoring network, using example datasets from New Zealand. HCA allows New Zealand's national and regional monitoring networks to be compared in terms of the number of water-quality categories identified in each network, the hydrochemistry at the centroids of these water-quality categories, the proportions of monitoring sites assigned to each water-quality category, and the range of concentrations for each analyte within each water-quality category. Through the HCA approach, the National Groundwater Monitoring Programme (117 sites) is shown to provide a highly representative perspective of groundwater quality across New Zealand, relative to the amalgamated regional monitoring networks operated by 15 different regional authorities (680 sites have sufficient data for inclusion in HCA). This methodology can be applied to evaluate the representativeness of any subset of monitoring sites taken from a larger network.