957 resultados para Markov,Processos de


Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Foram analisadas 326 amostras de fezes diarréicas provenientes de crianças entre 0 a 5 anos, internadas em dois hospitais de reidratação do Recife, Pernambuco. Foi introduzido o meio de Cary & Blair a 4 -C para transporte das fezes, não havendo diferença no percentual de isolamento quando o material permaneceu no meio de transporte entre 3 a 7 dias. Dos exames, 19,02% estavam positivos para um ou mais dos agentes bacterianos pesquisados, tendo sido encontrados 26 Salmonella de 3 espécies, 21 Escherichia coli enteroinvasiva, 10 Shigella de 3 sorotipos e 1 Yersisnia enterocolitica.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This paper investigates underlying changes in the UK economy over the past thirtyfive years using a small open economy DSGE model. Using Bayesian analysis, we find UK monetary policy, nominal price rigidity and exogenous shocks, are all subject to regime shifting. A model incorporating these changes is used to estimate the realised monetary policy and derive the optimal monetary policy for the UK. This allows us to assess the effectiveness of the realised policy in terms of stabilising economic fluctuations, and, in turn, provide an indication of whether there is room for monetary authorities to further improve their policies.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

We propose a non-equidistant Q rate matrix formula and an adaptive numerical algorithm for a continuous time Markov chain to approximate jump-diffusions with affine or non-affine functional specifications. Our approach also accommodates state-dependent jump intensity and jump distribution, a flexibility that is very hard to achieve with other numerical methods. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test shows that the proposed Markov chain transition density converges to the one given by the likelihood expansion formula as in Ait-Sahalia (2008). We provide numerical examples for European stock option pricing in Black and Scholes (1973), Merton (1976) and Kou (2002).

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Aquest projecte de recerca es proposa construir coneixement sobre les diverses formes en què els adolescents de família immigrada elaboren la seva identitat cultural, amb la finalitat d’establir pautes i propostes d’intervenció educativa que els ajudin a evitar, a causa de la interacció social en contextos multiculturals, l’exclusió social per motius d’ètnia o cultura. La recerca es du a terme en quatre fases. Una primera fase està destinada a recollir informació qualitativa sobre com construeixen aquests adolescents la seva identitat cultural. La segona fase consisteix en elaborar, de forma fonamentada i d’acord amb la informació obtinguda, un programa d’activitats educatives per aplicar. Aquesta fase es complementa amb una tercera d’experimentació del programa i avaluació dels resultats obtinguts, per poder dedicar-se posteriorment a la quarta i última, centrada en la difusió entre tots els centres de secundària vinculats a l’Institut de Ciències de l’Educació de la UAB. El projecte es desenvolupa en el marc del Campus Ítaca, una iniciativa de la UAB per acostar-se a l’alumnat que cursa estudis d’ESO. El Campus Ítaca pretén, mitjançant el desenvolupament de diverses activitats, que els alumnes de secundària es motivin a continuar els seus estudis en etapes postobligatòries. Es treballa, per tant, amb l’alumnat immigrat dels centres de secundària que hi participen.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

We study a business cycle model in which a benevolent fiscal authority must determine the optimal provision of government services, while lacking credibility, lump-sum taxes, and the ability to bond finance deficits. Households and the fiscal authority have risk sensitive preferences. We find that outcomes are affected importantly by the household's risk sensitivity, but not by the fiscal authority's. Further, while household risk-sensitivity induces a strong precautionary saving motive, which raises capital and lowers the return on assets, its effects on fluctuations and the business cycle are generally small, although more pronounced for negative shocks. Holding the stochastic steady state constant, increases in household risk-sensitivity lower the risk-free rate and raise the return on equity, increasing the equity premium. Finally, although risk-sensitivity has little effect on the provision of government services, it does cause the fiscal authority to lower the income tax rate. An additional contribution of this paper is to present a method for computing Markov-perfect equilibria in models where private agents and the government are risk-sensitive decisionmakers.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Time-inconsistency is an essential feature of many policy problems (Kydland and Prescott, 1977). This paper presents and compares three methods for computing Markov-perfect optimal policies in stochastic nonlinear business cycle models. The methods considered include value function iteration, generalized Euler-equations, and parameterized shadow prices. In the context of a business cycle model in which a scal authority chooses government spending and income taxation optimally, while lacking the ability to commit, we show that the solutions obtained using value function iteration and generalized Euler equations are somewhat more accurate than that obtained using parameterized shadow prices. Among these three methods, we show that value function iteration can be applied easily, even to environments that include a risk-sensitive scal authority and/or inequality constraints on government spending. We show that the risk-sensitive scal authority lowers government spending and income-taxation, reducing the disincentive households face to accumulate wealth.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

L’objectiu de la tesina és doble: 1. D’una banda, presentar una sèrie de criteris de qualitat democràtica pensats per avaluar processos participatius 2. D’altra banda, tot seguint el model presentat en el primer apartat de la tesina, he realitzat una temptativa d’avaluació de la qualitat democràtica dels processos participatius impulsats per l’administració local a Catalunya durant els darrers anys.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Aquest text manté que l’absència de les dones en els processos de pau no pot ser justificada al·ludint a la seva suposada manca d’experiència en el diàleg i la negociació, sinó que obeeix a la manca de voluntat per a incloure-les-hi. Les dones tenen una àmplia experiència en processos de diàleg. Han estat capaces de liderar experiències de diàleg en molts contextos de conflicte armat i postbèl·lics, però hi ha hagut una manca d’esforços deliberada per a integrar-les en els processos de pau formals. Després de presentar el marc de la investigació, el text aborda la implicació de les dones en la construcció de la pau i analitza el paper jugat per elles en els processos de pau, especialment en els casos de Sri Lanka i Irlanda del Nord. El text conclou afirmant que com que els processos de pau estan tan imbuïts pel gènere com els conflictes armats, les dones hi han de ser incloses i la perspectiva de gènere ha de guiar-les.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are probabilistic models that are well adapted to many tasks in bioinformatics, for example, for predicting the occurrence of specific motifs in biological sequences. MAMOT is a command-line program for Unix-like operating systems, including MacOS X, that we developed to allow scientists to apply HMMs more easily in their research. One can define the architecture and initial parameters of the model in a text file and then use MAMOT for parameter optimization on example data, decoding (like predicting motif occurrence in sequences) and the production of stochastic sequences generated according to the probabilistic model. Two examples for which models are provided are coiled-coil domains in protein sequences and protein binding sites in DNA. A wealth of useful features include the use of pseudocounts, state tying and fixing of selected parameters in learning, and the inclusion of prior probabilities in decoding. AVAILABILITY: MAMOT is implemented in C++, and is distributed under the GNU General Public Licence (GPL). The software, documentation, and example model files can be found at http://bcf.isb-sib.ch/mamot

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Aquest treball mira d'analitzar els factors més importants que, de manera més o menys directa, van intervenir en el procés de dissolució del grup armat Terra Lliure, per tal d'entendre millor aquests processos de desmobilització.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Aquest TFC vol fer una presentació del model CMM, presentar un sistema de gestió que cobreixi els seus requeriments a nivell 3, fer una proposta de desplegament i avaluar els costos i els beneficis de l'adopció del nou sistema de gestió per a una empresa dedicada al desenvolupament i el manteniment de programari. El resultat del treball és la memòria en si i els seus annexos.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

El projecte final de carrera objectiu del present document, inclou l'anàlisi, disseny, implementació i documentació d'una aplicació mitjançant tecnologia J2EE la finalitat de la qual és la gestió dels processos o tasques de llarga durada que formen part dels fluxos de negoci de moltes organitzacions.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether nalmefene combined with psychosocial support is cost-effective compared with psychosocial support alone for reducing alcohol consumption in alcohol-dependent patients with high/very high drinking risk levels (DRLs) as defined by the WHO, and to evaluate the public health benefit of reducing harmful alcohol-attributable diseases, injuries and deaths. DESIGN: Decision modelling using Markov chains compared costs and effects over 5 years. SETTING: The analysis was from the perspective of the National Health Service (NHS) in England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: The model considered the licensed population for nalmefene, specifically adults with both alcohol dependence and high/very high DRLs, who do not require immediate detoxification and who continue to have high/very high DRLs after initial assessment. DATA SOURCES: We modelled treatment effect using data from three clinical trials for nalmefene (ESENSE 1 (NCT00811720), ESENSE 2 (NCT00812461) and SENSE (NCT00811941)). Baseline characteristics of the model population, treatment resource utilisation and utilities were from these trials. We estimated the number of alcohol-attributable events occurring at different levels of alcohol consumption based on published epidemiological risk-relation studies. Health-related costs were from UK sources. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We measured incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and number of alcohol-attributable harmful events avoided. RESULTS: Nalmefene in combination with psychosocial support had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £5204 per QALY gained, and was therefore cost-effective at the £20,000 per QALY gained decision threshold. Sensitivity analyses showed that the conclusion was robust. Nalmefene plus psychosocial support led to the avoidance of 7179 alcohol-attributable diseases/injuries and 309 deaths per 100,000 patients compared to psychosocial support alone over the course of 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Nalmefene can be seen as a cost-effective treatment for alcohol dependence, with substantial public health benefits. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: This cost-effectiveness analysis was developed based on data from three randomised clinical trials: ESENSE 1 (NCT00811720), ESENSE 2 (NCT00812461) and SENSE (NCT00811941).