Increased water charges improve efficiency and equity in an irrigation system

Conventional wisdom in many agricultural systems across the world is that farmers cannot, will not, or should not pay the full costs associated with surface water delivery. Across Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, only a handful can claim complete recovery of operation, maintenance, and capital costs; across Central and South Asia, fees are lower still, with farmers in Nepal, India, and Kazakhstan paying fractions of a U.S. penny for a cubic meter of water. In Pakistan, fees amount to roughly USD 1-2 per acre per season. However, farmers in Pakistan spend orders of magnitude more for diesel fuel to pump groundwater each season, suggesting a latent willingness to spend for water that, under the right conditions, could potentially be directed toward water-use fees for surface water supply. Although overall performance could be expected to improve with greater cost recovery, asymmetric access to water in canal irrigation systems leaves the question open as to whether those benefits would be equitably shared among all farmers in the system. We develop an agent-based model (ABM) of a small irrigation command to examine efficiency and equity outcomes across a range of different cost structures for the maintenance of the system, levels of market development, and assessed water charges. We find that, robust to a range of different cost and structural conditions, increased water charges lead to gains in both efficiency and concomitant improvements in equity as investments in canal infrastructure and system maintenance improve the conveyance of water resources further down watercourses. This suggests that, under conditions in which (1) farmers are currently spending money to pump groundwater to compensate for a failing surface water system, and (2) there is the possibility that through initial investment to provide perceptibly better water supply, genuine win-win solutions can be attained through higher water-use fees to beneficiary farmers.

A long-term energy efficiency prediction model for the Brazilian automotive industry

According to law number 12.715/2012, Brazilian government instituted guidelines for a program named Inovar-Auto. In this context, energy efficiency is a survival requirement for Brazilian automotive industry from September 2016. As proposed by law, energy efficiency is not going to be calculated by models only. It is going to be calculated by the whole universe of new vehicles registered. In this scenario, the composition of vehicles sold in market will be a key factor on profits of each automaker. Energy efficiency and its consequences should be taken into consideration in all of its aspects. In this scenario, emerges the following question: which is the efficiency curve of one automaker for long term, allowing them to adequate to rules, keep balancing on investment in technologies, increasing energy efficiency without affecting competitiveness of product lineup? Among several variables to be considered, one can highlight the analysis of manufacturing costs, customer value perception and market share, which characterizes this problem as a multi-criteria decision-making. To tackle the energy efficiency problem required by legislation, this paper proposes a framework of multi-criteria decision-making. The proposed framework combines Delphi group and Analytic Hierarchy Process to identify suitable alternatives for automakers to incorporate in main Brazilian vehicle segments. A forecast model based on artificial neural networks was used to estimate vehicle sales demand to validate expected results. This approach is demonstrated with a real case study using public vehicles sales data of Brazilian automakers and public energy efficiency data.

Trois essais sur les banques et le pouvoir de marché

Cette thèse examine le rôle du pouvoir de marché dans le marché bancaire. L’emphase est mis sur la prise de risque, les économies d’échelle, l’efficacité économique du marché et la transmission des chocs. Le premier chapitre présente un modèle d’équilibre général dynamique stochastique en économie ouverte comprenant un marché bancaire en concurrence monopolistique. Suivant l’hypothèse de Krugman (1979, 1980) sur la relation entre les économies d’échelle et les exportations, les banques doivent défrayer un coût de transaction pour échanger à l’étranger qui diminue à mesure que le volume de leurs activités locales augmente. Cela incite les banques à réduire leur marge locale afin de profiter davantage du marché extérieur. Le modèle est solutionné et simulé pour divers degrés de concentration dans le marché bancaire. Les résultats obtenus indiquent que deux forces contraires, les économies d’échelle et le pouvoir de marché, s’affrontent lorsque le marché se concentre. La concentration permet aussi aux banques d’accroître leurs activités étrangères, ce qui les rend en contrepartie plus vulnérables aux chocs extérieurs. Le deuxième chapitre élabore un cadre de travail semblable, mais à l’intérieur duquel les banques font face à un risque de crédit. Celui-ci est partiellement assuré par un collatéral fourni par les entrepreneurs et peut être limité à l’aide d’un effort financier. Le modèle est solutionné et simulé pour divers degrés de concentration dans le marché bancaire. Les résultats montrent qu’un plus grand pouvoir de marché réduit la taille du marché financier et de la production à l’état stationnaire, mais incite les banques à prendre moins de risques. De plus, les économies dont le marché bancaire est fortement concentré sont moins sensibles à certains chocs puisque les marges plus élevés donnent initialement de la marge de manoeuvre aux banques en cas de chocs négatifs. Cet effet modérateur est éliminé lorsqu’il est possible pour les banques d’entrer et de sortir librement du marché. Une autre extension avec économies d’échelle montre que sous certaines conditions, un marché moyennement concentré est optimal pour l’économie. Le troisième chapitre utilise un modèle en analyse de portefeuille de type Moyenne-Variance afin de représenter une banque détenant du pouvoir de marché. Le rendement des dépôts et des actifs peut varier selon la quantité échangée, ce qui modifie le choix de portefeuille de la banque. Celle-ci tend à choisir un portefeuille dont la variance est plus faible lorsqu’elle est en mesure d’obtenir un rendement plus élevé sur un actif. Le pouvoir de marché sur les dépôts amène un résultat sembable pour un pouvoir de marché modéré, mais la variance finit par augmenter une fois un certain niveau atteint. Les résultats sont robustes pour différentes fonctions de demandes.

Hypothesis test for changes in variance using a statistic based in P-values in a time series of normal independent observations.

The present work proposes a Hypothesis Test to detect a shift in the variance of a series of independent normal observations using a statistic based on the p-values of the F distribution. Since the probability distribution function of this statistic is intractable, critical values were we estimated numerically through extensive simulation. A regression approach was used to simplify the quantile evaluation and extrapolation. The power of the test was simulated using Monte Carlo simulation, and the results were compared with the Chen test (1997) to prove its efficiency. Time series analysts might find the test useful to address homoscedasticity studies were at most one change might be involved.

Evidence of Discrimination Against Afrocolombians in the Colombian Labor Market in Major Cities in 2007

This paper evaluate the hypothesis that race is a determining factor in access to quality employment in Colombia during 2007 -- Using data from the Large Integrated Household Survey (2007-I), we estimate a generalized ordered logit model -- The results provide evidence that individuals self-identified as Afrocolombian have a higher probability of being in a low quality job than other Colombians -- This probability is higher by 1.9% in Cali, 3.4% in Bogotá, 12.6% in Barranquilla, 1.8% in Cartagena, 1.1% in Medellin and 3.8% overall in these five cities, results that could indicate that there is racial discrimination against Afrocolombians in the Colombian labor market

Testing the random walk hypothesis with variance ratio statistics

Mestrado em Finanças

Tribes under threat : the collective behavior of firms during the stock market crisis

Due to their unpredictable behavior, stock markets are examples of complex systems. Yet, the dominant analysis of these markets as- sumes simple stochastic variations, eventually tainted by short-lived memory. This paper proposes an alternative strategy, based on a stochastic geometry defining a robust index of the structural dynamics of the markets and based on notions of topology defining a new coef- ficient that identifies the structural changes occurring on the S&P500 set of stocks. The results demonstrate the consistency of the random hypothesis as applied to normal periods but they also show its in- adequacy as to the analysis of periods of turbulence, for which the emergence of collective behavior of sectoral clusters of firms is mea- sured. This behavior is identified as a meta-routine.

Economic efficiency of members of protected designations of origin: sharing reputation indicators in the experience goods of wine and cheese

The aim of this paper is to analyse the economic efficiency of members of protected designations of origin (PDO). For the first time we analyse the value of PDO labels from the point of view of economic efficiency. The central hypothesis is that a PDO has a positive impact on the economic efficiency of its member companies and that this is because a PDO label is a collective reputation indicator that foments efficient investment in quality in terms of member returns. The methodology applied to test this hypothesis is based on data envelopment analysis to estimate economic efficiency, and econometric models to explain company efficiency through both the PDO label, as an indicator of collective reputation, and the characteristics of the company. The results obtained in the experience goods of wine and cheese in Spain show that PDO labels have a positive impact on economic efficiency. Additionally, the age and size of the company have a positive effect while the wage level of the company has a different influence on efficiency depending on the sector considered. Overall, the results reveal the importance of PDOs in industries in which the signal of reputation is not only reliant on the individual brands.

Alternate furrow irrigation of four fresh-market tomato cultivars under semi-arid condition of Ethiopia – Part I: Effect on fruit yield and quality

Scarcity of freshwater due to recurrent drought threatens the sustainable crop production in semi-arid regions of Ethiopia. Deficit irrigation is thought to be one of the promising strategies to increase water use efficiency (WUE) under scarce water resources. A study was carried out to investigate the effect of alternate furrow irrigation (AFI), deficit irrigation (DI) and full irrigation (FI) on marketable fruit yield, WUE and physio-chemical quality of four fresh-market tomato cultivars (Fetan, Chali, Cochoro and ARP Tomato d2) in 2013 and 2014. The results showed that marketable yield, numbers of fruits per plant and fruit size were not significantly affected by AFI and DI irrigations. WUE under AFI and DI increased by 36.7% and 26.1%, respectively with close to 30% irrigation water savings achieved. A different response of cultivars to irrigation treatments was found for marketable yield, number of fruits and fruit size, WUE, total soluble solids (TSS) of the fruit juice, titratable acids (TA) and skin thickness. Cochoro and Fetan performed well under both deficit irrigation treatments exhibited by bigger fruit size which led to higher WUE. ARP Tomato d2 showed good yields under well-watered conditions. Chali had consistently lower marketable fruit yield and WUE. TSS and TA tended to increase under deficit irrigation; however, the overall variations were more explained by irrigation treatments than by cultivars. It was shown that AFI is a suitable deficit irrigation practice to increase fresh yield, WUE and quality of tomato in areas with low water availability. However, AFI requires suitable cultivars in order to exploit its water saving potential.

Alternate furrow irrigation of four fresh-market tomato cultivars under semi-arid condition of Ethiopia – Part II: Physiological response

Understanding the variation in physiological response to deficit irrigation together with better knowledge on physiological characteristics of different genotypes that contribute to drought adaptation mechanisms would be helpful in transferring different irrigation technologies to farmers. A field experiment was carried to investigate the physiological response of four tomato cultivars (Fetan, Chali, Cochoro and ARP Tomato d2) to moderate water deficit induced by alternate furrow irrigation (AFI) and deficit irrigation (DI) under semi-arid condition of Ethiopia during 2013 and 2014. The study also aimed at identifying physiological attributes to the fruit yield of tomato under different deficit irrigation techniques. A factorial combination of irrigation treatments and cultivar were arranged in a complete randomized design with three replicates. Results showed that stomatal conductance (g_s) was significantly reduced while photosynthetic performance measured as chlorophyll fluorescence (Fv’/Fm’), relative water content (RWC) and leaf ash content remained unaffected under deficit irrigations. Significant differences among cultivars were found for water use efficiency (WUE), g_s, chlorophyll content (Chl_SPAD), normal difference vegetation index (NDVI), leaf ash content and fruit growth rate. However, cultivar differences in WUE were more accounted for by the regulation of g_s, therefore, g_s could be useful for breeders for screening large numbers of genotypes with higher WUE under deficit irrigation condition. The study result also demonstrated that cultivar with traits that contribute to achieve higher yields under deficit irrigation strategies has the potential to increase WUE.

How long is the memory of the US stock market?

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), one of the most important hypothesis in financial economics, argues that return rates have no memory (correlation) which implies that agents cannot make abnormal profits in financial markets, due to the possibility of arbitrage operations. With return rates for the US stock market, we corroborate the fact that with a linear approach, return rates do not show evidence of correlation. However, linear approaches might not be complete or global, since return rates could suffer from nonlinearities. Using detrended cross-correlation analysis and its correlation coefficient, a methodology which analyzes long-range behavior between series, we show that the long-range correlation of return rates only ends in the 149th lag, which corresponds to about seven months. Does this result undermine the EMH?

The Impact of Internal Market Orientation on Staff Service Behaviours

The impact of service direction, service training and staff behaviours on perceptions of service delivery are examined. The impact of managerial behaviour in the form of internal market orientation (IMO) on the attitudes of frontline staff towards the firm and its consequent influence on their customer oriented behaviours is also examined. Frontline service staff working in the consumer transport industry were surveyed to provide subjective data about the constructs of interest in this study, and the data were analysed using structural equations modelling employing partial least squares estimation. The data indicate significant relationships between internal market orientation (IMO), the attitudes of the employees to the firm and their consequent behaviour towards customers. Customer orientation, service direction and service training are all identified as antecedents to high levels of service delivery. The study contributes to marketing theory by providing quantitative evidence to support assumptions that internal marketing has an impact on services success. For marketing practitioners, the research findings offer additional information about the management, training and motivation of service staff towards service excellence.