Planning and operation of large-scale water distribution systems with preemptive priorities

This paper describes the development of an optimization model for the management and operation of a large-scale, multireservoir water supply distribution system with preemptive priorities. The model considers multiobjectives and hedging rules. During periods of drought, when water supply is insufficient to meet the planned demand, appropriate rationing factors are applied to reduce water supply. In this paper, a water distribution system is formulated as a network and solved by the GAMS modeling system for mathematical programming and optimization. A user-friendly interface is developed to facilitate the manipulation of data and to generate graphs and tables for decision makers. The optimization model and its interface form a decision support system (DSS), which can be used to configure a water distribution system to facilitate capacity expansion and reliability studies. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the utility and versatility of the developed DSS under different supply and demand scenarios, including applications to one of the largest water supply systems in the world, the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area Water Supply Distribution System in Brazil.

Tiering strategic environmental assessment and project environmental impact assessment in highway planning in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Constructing highways in dense urban areas is always a challenge. In Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region, heavy truck traffic contributes to clog streets and expressways alike. As part of the traffic neither originates nor head to the region, a peripheral highway has been proposed to reduce traffic problems. This project called Rodoanel, is an expressway approximately 175 km long. The fact that the projected south and north sections would cross catchments that supply most of the metropolis water demand was strongly disputed and made the environmental permitting process particularly difficult. The agency in charge commissioned a strategic environmental assessment (SEA) of a revamped project, and called it the Rodoanel Programme. However, the SEA report failed to satisfactorily take account of significant strategic issues. Among these, the highway potential effect of inducing urban sprawl over water protection zones is the most critical issue, as it emerged later as a hurdle to project licensing. Conclusion is that, particularly where no agreed-upon framework for SEA exists, when vertical tiering with downstream project EIA is sought, then a careful scoping of strategic issues is more than necessary. If an agreement on `what is strategic` is not reached and not recognized by influential stakeholders, then the unsettled conflicts will be transferred to project EIA. In such a context, SEA will have added another loop to the usually long road to project approval. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulated annealing with adaptive neighborhood: A case study in off-line robot path planning

Simulated annealing (SA) is an optimization technique that can process cost functions with degrees of nonlinearities, discontinuities and stochasticity. It can process arbitrary boundary conditions and constraints imposed on these cost functions. The SA technique is applied to the problem of robot path planning. Three situations are considered here: the path is represented as a polyline; as a Bezier curve; and as a spline interpolated curve. In the proposed SA algorithm, the sensitivity of each continuous parameter is evaluated at each iteration increasing the number of accepted solutions. The sensitivity of each parameter is associated to its probability distribution in the definition of the next candidate. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial-temporal variation in coiled and straight morphotypes of Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii (Wolsz) Seenayya et Subba Raju (Cyanobacteria)

(Spatial-temporal variation in coiled and straight morphotypes of Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii (Wolsz) Seenayya et Subba Raju (Cyanobacteria)). This study reports the spatial and temporal behavior of straight and coiled morphotypes of C. raciborskii in a reservoir in Brazil`s semiarid region as well as the main factors responsible for the variability. Two set of samples were collected from the subsurface and bottom in the central region of a reservoir in two seasonal periods (dry January 2005; rainy June 2005) over 20-hour sampling periods during daylight (8 am, 12 pm and 4 pm) and dark (8 pm, 12 am and 4 am) hours. Measurements of abiotic parameters were determined concurrently to the sampling of biotic variables. Two C. raciborskii morphotypes were found in the reservoir: straight and coiled. There was no difference in density of the straight and coiled C. raciborskii morphotypes between the different sampling times for either season. Vertical differences were found in the distribution of both morphotypes in both seasons, with greater densities recorded at the subsurface. Densities of the two C. raciborskii morphotypes were greater in the dry season, with the density of the coiled morphotype at the surface two-fold greater than that of the straight morphotype and that found in the rainy season. The ecological success of the coiled morphotype was due to thermal stratification, whereas a mixed condition was determinant in the success of the straight morphotype.

Spatial genetic structure of Hymenaea stigonocarpa Mart. ex Hayne assessed with chloroplast microsatellite markers

The use of chloroplast DNA markers (cpDNA) helps to elucidate questions related to ecology, evolution and genetic structure. The knowledge of inter-and intra-population genetic structure allows to design effective conservation and management strategies for tropical tree species. With the aim to help the conservation of Hymenaea stigonocarpa of the Cerrado (Brazilian savanna) in Sao Paulo State, an analysis of the spatial genetic structure (SGS) was conducted in two populations using five universal chloroplast microsatellite loci (cpSSR). The population of 68 trees of H. stigonocarpa in the Ecological Station of Itirapina (ESI) had a single haplotype, indicating a strong founder effect. In turn, the population of 47 trees of H. stigonocarpa in a contiguous area that includes the Ecological Station of Assis and the Assis State Forest (ESA), showed six haplotypes ((n) over cap (h) = 6) with a moderate haplotype diversity ((h) over cap = 0667 + 0094), revealing that it was founded by a small number of maternal lineages. The SGS analysis for the population ESA/ASF, using Moran`s I index, indicated limited seed dispersal. Considering SGS, for ex situ conservation strategies in the population ESA/ASF, seed harvesting should require a minimum distance of 750 m among seed-trees.

Compatibility of Neoseiulus paspalivorus and Proctolaelaps bickleyi, candidate biocontrol agents of the coconut mite Aceria guerreronis: spatial niche use and intraguild predation

The eriophyid mite Aceria guerreronis occurs in most coconut growing regions of the world and causes enormous damage to coconut fruits. The concealed environment of the fruit perianth under which the mite resides renders its control extremely difficult. Recent studies suggest that biological control could mitigate the problems caused by this pest. Neoseiulus paspalivorus and Proctolaelaps bickleyi are two of the most frequently found predatory mites associated with A. guerreronis on coconut fruits. Regarding biological control, the former has an advantage in invading the tight areas under the coconut fruit perianth while the latter is more voracious on the pest mites and has a higher reproductive capacity. Based on the idea of the combined use/release of both predators on coconut fruits, we studied their compatibility in spatial niche use and intraguild predation (IGP). Spatial niche use on coconut fruits was examined on artificial arenas mimicking the area under the coconut fruit perianth and the open fruit surface. Both N. paspalivorus and P. bickleyi preferentially resided and oviposited inside the tight artificial chamber. Oviposition rate of P. bickleyi and residence time of N. paspalivorus inside the chamber were reduced in the presence of a conspecific female. Residence of N. paspalivorus inside the chamber was also influenced by the presence of P. bickleyi. Both N. paspalivorus and P. bickleyi preyed upon each other with relatively moderate IGP rates of adult females on larvae but neither species yielded nutritional benefits from IGP in terms of adult survival and oviposition. We discuss the relevance of our findings for a hypothetic combined use of both predators in biological control of A. guerreronis.

Spatial portability of numerical models of leaf wetness duration based on empirical approaches

Leaf wetness duration (LWD) models based on empirical approaches offer practical advantages over physically based models in agricultural applications, but their spatial portability is questionable because they may be biased to the climatic conditions under which they were developed. In our study, spatial portability of three LWD models with empirical characteristics - a RH threshold model, a decision tree model with wind speed correction, and a fuzzy logic model - was evaluated using weather data collected in Brazil, Canada, Costa Rica, Italy and the USA. The fuzzy logic model was more accurate than the other models in estimating LWD measured by painted leaf wetness sensors. The fraction of correct estimates for the fuzzy logic model was greater (0.87) than for the other models (0.85-0.86) across 28 sites where painted sensors were installed, and the degree of agreement k statistic between the model and painted sensors was greater for the fuzzy logic model (0.71) than that for the other models (0.64-0.66). Values of the k statistic for the fuzzy logic model were also less variable across sites than those of the other models. When model estimates were compared with measurements from unpainted leaf wetness sensors, the fuzzy logic model had less mean absolute error (2.5 h day(-1)) than other models (2.6-2.7 h day(-1)) after the model was calibrated for the unpainted sensors. The results suggest that the fuzzy logic model has greater spatial portability than the other models evaluated and merits further validation in comparison with physical models under a wider range of climate conditions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial pattern of black spot incidence within citrus trees related to disease severity and pathogen dispersal

Guignardia citricarpa, the causal agent of citrus black spot, forms airborne ascospores on decomposing citrus leaves and water-spread conidia on fruits, leaves and twigs. The spatial pattern of diseased fruit in citrus tree canopies was used to assess the importance of ascospores and conidia in citrus black spot epidemics in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. The aggregation of diseased fruit in the citrus tree canopy was quantified by the binomial dispersion index (D) and the binary form of Taylor`s Power Law for 303 trees in six groves. D was significantly greater than 1 in 251 trees. The intercept of the regression line of Taylor`s Power Law was significantly greater than 0 and the slope was not different from 1, implying that diseased fruit was aggregated in the canopy independent of disease incidence. Disease incidence (p) and severity (S) were assessed in 2875 citrus trees. The incidence-severity relationship was described (R-2 = 88.7%) by the model ln(S) = ln(a) + bCLL(p) where CLL = complementary log-log transformation. The high severity at low incidence observed in many cases is also indicative of low distance spread of G. citricarpa spores. For the same level of disease incidence, some trees had most of the diseased fruit with many lesions and high disease severity, whereas other trees had most of the fruit with few lesions and low disease severity. Aggregation of diseased fruit in the trees suggests that splash-dispersed conidia have an important role in increasing the disease in citrus trees in Brazil.

Spatial Modeling of a Soil Fertility Index using Visible-Near-Infrared Spectra and Terrain Attributes

Our objective was to develop a methodology to predict soil fertility using visible near-infrared (vis-NIR) diffuse reflectance spectra and terrain attributes derived from a digital elevation model (DEM). Specifically, our aims were to: (i) assemble a minimum data set to develop a soil fertility index for sugarcane (Sarcharum officinarum L.) (SFI-SC) for biofuel production in tropical soils; (ii) construct a model to predict the SFI-SC using soil vis-NIR spectra and terrain attributes; and (iii) produce a soil fertility map for our study area and assess it by comparing it with a green vegetation index (GVI). The study area was 185 ha located in sao Paulo State, Brazil. In total, 184 soil samples were collected and analyzed for a range of soil chemical and physical properties. Their vis-NIR spectra were collected from 400 to 2500 nm. The Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission 3-arcsec (90-m resolution) DEM of the area was used to derive 17 terrain attributes. A minimum data set of soil properties was selected to develop the SFI-SC. The SFI-SC consisted of three classes: Class 1, the highly fertile soils; Class 2, the fertile soils; and Class 3, the least fertile soils. It was derived heuristically with conditionals and using expert knowledge. The index was modeled with the spectra and terrain data using cross-validated decision trees. The cross-validation of the model correctly predicted Class 1 in 75% of cases, Class 2 in 61%, and Class 3 in 65%. A fertility map was derived for the study area and compared with a map of the GVI. Our approach offers a methodology that incorporates expert knowledge to derive the SFI-SC and uses a versatile spectro-spatial methodology that may be implemented for rapid and accurate determination of soil fertility and better exploration of areas suitable for production.

Spatial patterns of soil attributes and components in a mangrove system in Southeast Brazil (Sao Paulo)

Purpose Among environmental factors governing innumerous processes that are active in estuarine environments, those of edaphic character have received special attention in recent studies. With the objectives of determining the spatial patterns of soil attributes and components across different mangrove forest landscapes and obtaining additional information on the cause-effect relationships between these variables and position within the estuary, we analyzed several soil attributes in 31 mangrove soil profiles from the state of So Paulo (Guaruja, Brazil). Materials and methods Soil samples were collected at low tide along two transects within the CrumahA(0) mangrove forest. Samples were analyzed to determine pH, Eh, salinity, and the percentages of sand, silt, clay, total organic carbon (TOC), and total S. Mineralogy of the clay fraction (< 2 mm) was also studied by X-ray diffraction analysis, and partitioning of solid-phase Fe was performed by sequential extraction. Results and discussion The results obtained indicate important differences in soil composition at different depths and landscape positions, causing variations in physicochemical parameters, clay mineralogy, TOC contents, and iron geochemistry. The results also indicate that physicochemical conditions may vary in terms of different local microtopographies. Soil salinity was determined by relative position in relation to flood tide and transition areas with highlands. The proportions of TOC and total S are conditioned by the sedimentation of organic matter derived from vegetation and by the prevailing redox conditions, which clearly favored intense sulfate reduction in the soils (similar to 80% of the total Fe is Fe-pyrite). Particle-size distribution is conditioned by erosive/deposition processes (present and past) and probably by the positioning of ancient and reworked sandy ridges. The existing physicochemical conditions appear to contribute to the synthesis (smectite) and transformation (kaolinite) of clay minerals. Conclusions The results demonstrate that the position of soils in the estuary greatly affects soil attributes. Differences occur even at small scales (meters), indicating that both edaphic (soil classification, soil mineralogy, and soil genesis) and environmental (contamination and carbon stock) studies should take such variability into account.

Large-scale ecological restoration of high-diversity tropical forests in SE Brazil

The complex interactions among endangered ecosystems, landowners` interests, and different models of land tenure and use, constitute an important series of challenges for those seeking to maintain and restore biodiversity and augment the flow of ecosystem services. Over the past 10 years, we have developed a data-based approach to address these challenges and to achieve medium and large-scale ecological restoration of riparian areas on private lands in the state of Sao Paulo, southeastern Brazil. Given varying motivations for ecological restoration, the location of riparian areas within landholdings, environmental zoning of different riparian areas, and best-practice restoration methods were developed for each situation. A total of 32 ongoing projects, covering 527,982 ha, were evaluated in large sugarcane farms and small mixed farms, and six different restoration techniques have been developed to help upscale the effort. Small mixed farms had higher portions of land requiring protection as riparian areas (13.3%), and lower forest cover of riparian areas (18.3%), than large sugarcane farms (10.0% and 36.9%, respectively for riparian areas and forest cover values). In both types of farms, forest fragments required some degree of restoration. Historical anthropogenic degradation has compromised forest ecosystem structure and functioning, despite their high-diversity of native tree and shrub species. Notably, land use patterns in riparian areas differed markedly. Large sugarcane farms had higher portions of riparian areas occupied by highly mechanized agriculture, abandoned fields, and anthropogenic wet fields created by siltation in water courses. In contrast, in small mixed crop farms, low or non-mechanized agriculture and pasturelands were predominant. Despite these differences, plantations of native tree species covering the entire area was by far the main restoration method needed both by large sugarcane farms (76.0%) and small mixed farms (92.4%), in view of the low resilience of target sites, reduced forest cover, and high fragmentation, all of which limit the potential for autogenic restoration. We propose that plantations should be carried out with a high-diversity of native species in order to create biologically viable restored forests, and to assist long-term biodiversity persistence at the landscape scale. Finally, we propose strategies to integrate the political, socio-economic and methodological aspects needed to upscale restoration efforts in tropical forest regions throughout Latin America and elsewhere. (C) 2010 Elsevier BA/. All rights reserved.

Spatial heterogeneity of leaf wetness duration in apple trees and its influence on performance of a warning system for sooty blotch and flyspeck

To determine the effect of sensor placement on the performance of a disease-warning system for sooty blotch and flyspeck (SBFS), we measured leaf wetness duration (LWD) at 12 canopy positions in apple trees, then simulated operation of the disease-warning system using LWD measurements from different parts of the canopy. LWD sensors were placed in four trees within one Iowa orchard during two growing seasons, and in one tree in each of four orchards during a single growing season. The LWD measurements revealed substantial heterogeneity among sensor locations. In all data sets, the upper, eastern portion of the canopy had the longest mean daily LWD, and was the first site to form dew and the last to dry. The lower, western portion of the canopy averaged about 3 It less LWD per day than the top of the canopy, and was the last zone where dew formed and the first to dry off. On about 25% of nights when dew occurred in the top of the canopy, no dew formed in the lower, western canopy. Intracanopy variability of LWD was more pronounced when dew was the sole source of wetness than on days when rainfall occurred. Daily LWD in the upper, eastern portion of the canopy was slightly less than reference measurements made at a 0.7-m height over turfgrass located near the orchard. When LWD measurements from several canopy positions were input to the SBFS warning system, timing of occurrence of a fungicide-spray threshold varied by as much as 30 days among canopy positions. Under Iowa conditions, placement of an LWD sensor at an unobstructed site over turfgrass was a fairly accurate surrogate for the wettest part of the canopy. Therefore, such an extra-canopy LWD sensor might be substituted for a within-canopy sensor to enhance operational reliability of the SBFS warning system.

A hybrid probabilistic criterion for market-based transmission expansion planning

Market-based transmission expansion planning gives information to investors on where is the most cost efficient place to invest and brings benefits to those who invest in this grid. However, both market issue and power system adequacy problems are system planers’ concern. In this paper, a hybrid probabilistic criterion of Expected Economical Loss (EEL) is proposed as an index to evaluate the systems’ overall expected economical losses during system operation in a competitive market. It stands on both investors’ and planner’s point of view and will further improves the traditional reliability cost. By applying EEL, it is possible for system planners to obtain a clear idea regarding the transmission network’s bottleneck and the amount of losses arises from this weak point. Sequentially, it enables planners to assess the worth of providing reliable services. Also, the EEL will contain valuable information for moneymen to undertake their investment. This index could truly reflect the random behaviors of power systems and uncertainties from electricity market. The performance of the EEL index is enhanced by applying Normalized Coefficient of Probability (NCP), so it can be utilized in large real power systems. A numerical example is carried out on IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS), which will show how the EEL can predict the current system bottleneck under future operational conditions and how to use EEL as one of planning objectives to determine future optimal plans. A well-known simulation method, Monte Carlo simulation, is employed to achieve the probabilistic characteristic of electricity market and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) is used as a multi-objective optimization tool.

Spatial, temporal, and human dimensions of air pollution in Brisbane

Arriving in Brisbane some six years ago, I could not help being impressed by what may be prosaically described as its atmospheric amenity resources. Perhaps this in part was due to my recent experiences in major urban centres in North America, but since that time, that sparkling quality and the blue skies seem to have progressively diminished. Unfortunately, there is also objective evidence available to suggest that this apparent deterioration is not merely the result of habituation of the senses. Air pollution data for the city show trends of increasing concentrations of those very substances that have destroyed the attractiveness of major population centres elsewhere, with climates initially as salubrious. Indeed, present figures indicate that photochemical smog in unacceptably high concentrations is rapidly becoming endemic also over Brisbane. These regrettable developments should come as no surprise. The society at large has not been inclined to respond purposefully to warnings of impending environmental problems, despite the experiences and publicity from overseas and even from other cities within Australia. Nor, up to the present, have certain politicians and government officials displayed stances beyond those necessary for the maintenance of a decorum of concern. At this stage, there still exists the possibility for meaningful government action without the embarrassment of losing political favour with the electorate. To the contrary, there is every chance that such action may be turned to advantage with increased public enlightenment. It would be more than a pity to miss perhaps the final remaining opportunity: Queensland is one of the few remaining places in the world with sufficient resources to permit both rational development and high environmental quality. The choice appears to be one of making a relatively minor investment now for a large financial and social gain the near future, or, permitting Brisbane to degenerate gradually into just another stagnated Los Angeles or Sydney. The present monograph attempts to introduce the problem by reviewing the available research on air quality in the Brisbane area. It also tries to elucidate some seemingly obvious, but so far unapplied management approaches. By necessity, such a broad treatment needs to make inroads into extensive ranges of subject areas, including political and legal practices to public perceptions, scientific measurement and statistical analysis to dynamics of air flow. Clearly, it does not pretend to be definitive in any of these fields, but it does try to emphasize those adjustable facets of the human use system of natural resources, too often neglected in favour of air pollution control technology. The crossing of disciplinary boundaries, however, needs no apology: air quality problems are ubiquitous, touching upon space, time and human interaction.