Predictive Margins and Marginal Effects in Stata

Tables of estimated regression coefficients, usually accompanied by additional information such as standard errors, t-statistics, p-values, confidence intervals or significance stars, have long been the preferred way of communicating results from statistical models. In recent years, however, the limits of this form of exposition have been increasingly recognized. For example, interpretation of regression tables can be very challenging in the presence of complications such as interaction effects, categorical variables, or nonlinear functional forms. Furthermore, while these issues might still be manageable in the case of linear regression, interpretational difficulties can be overwhelming in nonlinear models such as logistic regression. To facilitate sensible interpretation of such models it is often necessary to compute additional results such as marginal effects, predictive margins, or contrasts. Moreover, smart graphical displays of results can be very valuable in making complex relations accessible. A number of helpful commands geared at supporting these tasks have been recently introduced in Stata, making elaborate interpretation and communication of regression results possible without much extra effort. Examples of such commands are -margins-, -contrasts-, and -marginsplot-. In my talk, I will discuss the capabilities of these commands and present a range of examples illustrating their use.

Survey estimation and marginal effects in Stata

Stata is a general purpose software package that has become popular among various disciplines such as epidemiology, economics, or social sciences. Users like Stata for its scientific approach, its robustness and reliability, and the ease with which its functionality can be extended by user written programs. In this talk I will first give a brief overview of the functionality of Stata and then discuss two specific features: survey estimation and predictive margins/marginal effects. Most surveys are based on complex samples that contain multiple sampling stages, are stratified or clustered, and feature unequal selection probabilities. Standard estimators can produce misleading results in such samples unless the peculiarities of the sampling plan are taken into account. Stata offers survey statistics for complex samples for a wide variety of estimators and supports several variance estimation procedures such as linearization, jackknife, and balanced repeated replication (see Kreuter and Valliant, 2007, Stata Journal 7: 1-21). In the talk I will illustrate these features using applied examples and I will also show how user written commands can be adapted to support complex samples. Complex can also be the models we fit to our data, making it difficult to interpret them, especially in case of nonlinear or non-additive models (Mood, 2010, European Sociological Review 26: 67-82). Stata provides a number of highly useful commands to make results of such models accessible by computing and displaying predictive margins and marginal effects. In my talk I will discuss these commands provide various examples demonstrating their use.

Challenging conservation agriculture on marginal slopes in Sehoul, Morocco

In Sehoul, Morocco, the use of marginal land for agriculture became a necessity for the local population due to increased poverty and the occupation of the best land by new owners. Desertification poses an additional threat to agricultural production on marginal slopes, which are often stony and degraded. In a participatory process embedded in the EU DESIRE research project, potential sustainable land management measures were selected to address land degradation and desertification. Promising experiences with no-tillage practices elsewhere in Morocco had motivated the Moroccan government to promote conservation agriculture throughout the country. This combination of crop rotation, minimal soil disturbance and soil cover maintenance, however, had not yet been tested on sloping degraded land. Field trials of grazing enclosure combined with no or minimum tillage were conducted on the plots of two farmers, and trial results were analyzed based on stakeholders’ criteria. Results suggest that increased soil cover with barley residues improved rainwater use efficiency and yields only slightly, although soil water was generally enhanced. Soil moisture measurements revealed that no-tillage was favorable mainly at soil depths of 5 cm and in connection with low-rainfall events (<20 mm); under these circumstances, moisture content was generally higher under no-tillage than under conventional tillage. Moreover, stakeholder discussion confirmed that farmers in Sehoul remain primarily interested in animal husbandry and are reluctant to change the current grazing system. Implementation of conservation agriculture is thus challenged both by the degraded, sloping and stony nature of the land, and by the socio-economic circumstances in Sehoul.

Resin composites: Modulus of elasticity and marginal quality

OBJECTIVE To investigate how the modulus of elasticity of resin composites influences marginal quality in restorations submitted to thermocyclic and mechanical loading. METHODS Charisma, Filtek Supreme XTE and Grandio were selected as they were found to possess different moduli of elasticity but quite similar polymerization contraction. MOD cavities (n=30) were prepared in extracted premolars, restored and then subjected to thermocyclic and mechanical loading. Marginal quality of the restorations before and after loading was analyzed on epoxy replicas under a scanning electron microscope. The percentage of gap-free margins and occurrence of paramarginal fractures were registered. Modulus of elasticity and polymerization contraction were analyzed with parametric and margins with nonparametric ANOVA and post hoc Tukey HSD or Wilcoxon rank-sum tests, respectively. The number of paramarginal fractures was analyzed with exact Fisher tests (α=0.05). RESULTS Grandio demonstrated significantly more gap-free enamel margins than Charisma and Filtek Supreme XTE, before and after loading (p<0.01), whereas there was no difference between Charisma and Filtek Supreme XTE (p>0.05). No significant effect of resin composite (p=0.81) on the quality of dentine margins was observed, before or after loading. Deterioration of all margins was evident after loading (p<0.0001). More paramarginal enamel fractures were observed after loading in teeth restored with Grandio when compared to Charisma (p=0.008). CONCLUSIONS The resin composite with the highest modulus of elasticity resulted in the highest number of gap-free enamel margins but with an increased incidence of paramarginal enamel fractures. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE The results from this study suggest that the marginal quality of restorations can be improved by the selection of a resin composite with modulus of elasticity close to that of dentine, although an increase in paramarginal enamel fractures can result as a consequence.

Marginal lands or marginal people? Analysing key processes determining the outcomes of large-scale land acquisitions in Lao PDR and Cambodia

This chapter aims to overcome the gap existing between case study research, which typically provides qualitative and process-based insights, and national or global inventories that typically offer spatially explicit and quantitative analysis of broader patterns, and thus to present adequate evidence for policymaking regarding large-scale land acquisitions. Therefore, the chapter links spatial patterns of land acquisitions to underlying implementation processes of land allocation. Methodologically linking the described patterns and processes proved difficult, but we have identified indicators that could be added to inventories and monitoring systems to make linkage possible. Combining complementary approaches in this way may help to determine where policy space exists for more sustainable governance of land acquisitions, both geographically and with regard to processes of agrarian transitions. Our spatial analysis revealed two general patterns: (i) relatively large forestry-related acquisitions that target forested landscapes and often interfere with semi-subsistence farming systems; and (ii) smaller agriculture-related acquisitions that often target existing cropland and also interfere with semi-subsistence systems. Furthermore, our meta-analysis of land acquisition implementation processes shows that authoritarian, top-down processes dominate. Initially, the demands of powerful regional and domestic investors tend to override socio-ecological variables, local actors’ interests, and land governance mechanisms. As available land grows scarce, however, and local actors gain experience dealing with land acquisitions, it appears that land investments begin to fail or give way to more inclusive, bottom-up investment models.

Quantifying the improvement in sepsis diagnosis, documentation, and coding: the marginal causal effect of year of hospitalization on sepsis diagnosis.

PURPOSE To quantify the coinciding improvement in the clinical diagnosis of sepsis, its documentation in the electronic health records, and subsequent medical coding of sepsis for billing purposes in recent years. METHODS We examined 98,267 hospitalizations in 66,208 patients who met systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria at a tertiary care center from 2008 to 2012. We used g-computation to estimate the causal effect of the year of hospitalization on receiving an International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification discharge diagnosis code for sepsis by estimating changes in the probability of getting diagnosed and coded for sepsis during the study period. RESULTS When adjusted for demographics, Charlson-Deyo comorbidity index, blood culture frequency per hospitalization, and intensive care unit admission, the causal risk difference for receiving a discharge code for sepsis per 100 hospitalizations with systemic inflammatory response syndrome, had the hospitalization occurred in 2012, was estimated to be 3.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.8%-4.0%), 3.4% (95% CI, 3.3%-3.5%), 2.2% (95% CI, 2.1%-2.3%), and 0.9% (95% CI, 0.8%-1.1%) from 2008 to 2011, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Patients with similar characteristics and risk factors had a higher of probability of getting diagnosed, documented, and coded for sepsis in 2012 than in previous years, which contributed to an apparent increase in sepsis incidence.

The Marginal Impact of ENGOs in Different Types of Democratic Systems

Conventional wisdom suggests that environmental non-governmental organizations (ENGOs) play a major role in pushing states towards more ambitious environmental policies. However, demonstrating that this presumption is in fact true is rather difficult, because the same system structures of democracies that may create more opportunities for ENGO activities are also, on their own, conducive to better environmental policies. This leaves open the possibility that the additional (marginal) impact of ENGOs on policy making is smaller than presumed. In trying to disentangle these effects, this paper examines the influence of ENGOs contingent on key structural characteristics of democratic systems. We develop the argument that presidential systems with a plurality electoral rule per se tend to provide more environmental public goods, which induces a smaller marginal impact of ENGOs. Conversely, parliamentary systems with a proportional representation electoral rule are likely to provide fewer environmental public goods, which allows for a larger marginal impact of ENGOs. We find robust empirical support for these hypotheses in analyses that focus on the ratification behavior of 75 democracies vis-à-vis 250 international environmental agreements in 1973–2002.

A Dynamic Analysis: the Smile and Display of Dentition during Speech

The objective of this retrospective study is to follow up on a previous Dynamic Smile Analysis and videographically analyze and develop averages for soft tissue norms with respect to the display of dentition during speech. These values would then be compared cross-sectionally across different age groups to see whether changes attributable to the aging process could be seen. A secondary objective was to compare averages for soft tissue norms in the display of dentition during speech to averages for soft tissue norms in the display of dentition during the smile. Materials and Method: Records from a previous study in which video equipment was used to capture video for 26 1 subjects were re-evaluated to find appropriate frames to analyze for speech. Two frames for each subject were selected; one frame representing the maximal display of maxillary incisors during speech and the second representing the widest transverse display of dentition during speech. After excluding 40 subjects the data for the remaining 221 subjects was analyzed. These averages were then compared to averages attained in the previous study to compare the display of the dentition during speech to the display of the dentition during smile. Results: On average, a difference in 1.29 mm was seen in the display of the maxillary incisors during speech at maximal display and during the smile. An average of 7.23 mm of maxillary incisors is readily visible during maximum display of maxillary incisors during speech, as compared to 8.52 mm during the smile. The constructed smile index was also smaller when measured during the speech when compared to the smile index by an average of 2.58 units. Conclusion: This study helps to establish age-related dynamic norms for the display of dentition during speech. The dynamic measures indicate that the display of dectition is greater, on average, during the smile than at speech.

La comunicación gráfica pública marginal

El espacio público, atravesado por lugares de tránsito e interacción comunes de los individuos, constituye un terreno fundamental de la comunicación de todas las épocas. Este espacio mantiene a través de la historia del hombre significante su fuerza instrumental como espacio de difusión de significaciones. Éstas se producen ubicando mensajes, señales, símbolos en un segmento visual apropiado y de acceso público. En la construcción de este espacio visual público de comunicación intervienen sujetos comunicativos - locutores- que interpelan a las sociedades colaborando en la conformación de sus identidades y reproducen o trastocan sus representaciones, sus creencias, sus valores, sus conocimientos. Los mensajes son heterogéneos en sus formas, intenciones y lenguajes. El conjunto de estas marcas en el espacio varía, apareciendo y desapareciendo, reemplazándose, tomando nuevas formas y actualizándose necesariamente con el tiempo. Es un espacio continuamente mutante en sus formas y contenidos. Para el analista cultural representan una valiosa fuente de información para el acercamiento a la comprensión de la(s) identidad(es) de una sociedad. Cada texto existente en un momento y lugar determinado funciona entonces como un mensaje para los intervinientes en el proceso comunicativo del signo y además como una marca cultural de la época en la que se produce.

Estudio de distribución y frecuencia de caries en preescolares de alto riesgo social

Objetivos: El presente trabajo establece en el escenario local, un patrón de distribución y severidad de caries en una población de riesgo social de niños preescolares, datos necesarios para la programación de recursos en programas de salud bucal Método: estudio descriptivo, correlacional y transversal sobre muestra intencionada de 150 niños preescolares de 4 y 5 años de edad, de ambos sexos, con actividad de caries, pertenecientes a escuelas públicas, del ámbito urbano-marginal-Distrito Pedro Molina-Mendoza. Rep. Argentina, cuyos padres hubieron firmado el consentimiento informado. Se registraron las lesiones de caries según diente y sitio, y la severidad según ICDAS II (Pitts, 2004). Se establecieron distribución de frecuencias para las variables diente, sitio y categoría de ICDAS II. Para establecer asociaciones entre variables se aplicó prueba de chi cuadrado, con un nivel de significación de 0.05. Resultados: 1º y 2º molares temporarios son los más afectados, principalmente 75 y 85. El valor 6 de ICDAS II es el más frecuente, seguido por valores 3 y 5. El 84 presenta mayor frecuencia de valores grado 6. La superficie oclusal es la más afectada (42.6%). Existe asociación entre diente y categoría de ICDAS II y entre diente y sitio de la lesión para 55, 52, 51, 61, 62, 63 y 64, 84 y 75. Conclusiones: la distribución y severidad de caries en denticióntemporaria de los niños estudiados evidencia una alta frecuencia de lesiones de caries en molares, y una necesidad de tratamiento complejo involucrando para su resolución niveles de atención sanitaria II y III que deberá encontrar como contraparte un sistema sanitario preparado para su resolución.

Ferréz en el círculo de los violentos : Ecos eruditos de la barca de Caronte en la escritura marginal en "O ônibus branco"

Aproximar la narración del cuento "O ônibus branco" a aquellas sobre el mito de la barca del inferno es observar rastros de lo hegemónico en la escritura marginal, dirigirse hacia un tipo de información que se encuentra relacionada con las construcciones simbólicas de una cultura de instrucción y lecturas eruditas. ¿De qué lugares toma referencias la escritura producida más allá de los márgenes de la ciudad formal? Tal cuestionamiento impone una investigación que incide sobre la idea de que ciertas narrativas populares encuentran eco en lecturas más allá de aquellas disponibles en los medios masivos y acogen un repertorio culto

La socialización marginal en el trabajo de servicio en la España del Siglo de Oro : Aproximación a su análisis

Durante la temprana modernidad parte de los pobres fueron marginados y criminalizados debido a que no se insertaban en el mercado laboral, motivo que condujo a que fueran instigados al trabajo compulsivamente. La falta de especialización de estos hombres, así como su carácter urbano, fueron factores que contribuyeron a su inserción en diversas ocupaciones de servicio. Los criados no eran económicamente productivos, sino que su función tenía sentido en el marco socio-cultural, ya que servían a la reproducción de status de sus amos. Este tipo de actividades fueron ampliamente descriptas en el corpus de novelas que compone el género de la picaresca española, en el cual podemos observar un retrato sobre cómo imaginaron los literatos -que refractaron en sus obras una concepción social- las prácticas de los servidores. El Guzmán de Alfarache ilustra, a través de las sucesivas ocupaciones de servicio en que se emplea el protagonista, las formas de socialización que existían entre los mozos en el espacio doméstico, donde reproducían las conductas marginales en el marco de socialización "no marginal" que les era impuesto. El análisis que proponemos pretende indagar acerca de este problema en la crítica ilustración realizada por Mateo Alemán en El Guzmán...

Apuntes iniciales para una polémica marginal : Aldo Pellegrini y Osiris Troiani; de Letra y Línea a Contorno

Entre mediados de 1954 y septiembre de 1955, en las jóvenes revistas Letra y Línea, Capricornio, y Contorno, se mantuvo una polémica dilatada entre Osiris Troiani y Aldo Pellegrini, cuya causa parecía justificarse en una nota de Carlos Latorre acerca de Sur y la literatura italiana. El propósito de este trabajo es, por un lado, dar cuenta de esa temporalidad desfasada y marginal en que se organiza esta disputa contra los preceptos del surrealismo, más precisamente, el surrealismo en Argentina, reparando en cuáles son las nuevas concepciones críticas y literarias que comienzan a ponerse en juego al momento de discutir. Por otro lado, aunque de forma breve, se amplía el contexto de revistas literarias y publicaciones periódicas que han sido introducidas, tanto en referencias como en repercusiones de esta polémica

Literatura marginal e a compreensão das dinâmicas sociais das periferias brasileiras

O presente artigo discute, a partir das noçoesde literatura e sociedade desenvolvidas por Antonio Candido e de campo social de Pierre Bourdieu, a produçao ficcional e a trajetória social e intelectual de determinados escritores no campo literário brasileiro. A manifestaçao cultural desses autores, caracterizada de periféricae denominada "literatura marginal", ganhou a cena pública brasileira no final da década de 1990 com a publicaçao dos romances Cidade de Deus, do carioca Paulo Lins e Capao Pecado, do paulistano Ferréz.O romance de Paulo Lins tornou-se mundialmente conhecido depois que o cineasta Fernando Meirelles filmou "Cidade de Deus" conquistando, inclusive, indicaçoes para a disputa do Oscar. Ferréz publicou outros livros e organizou a revista "Literatura Marginal", coletânea com diferentes moradores de bairros periféricos da cidade de Sao Paulo.A partir da análise das obras desses dois autores sugerimos que os morros, favelas e periferias têm suas próprias características e a literatura marginal pode indicar mais uma oportunidade para desvendar esse mundo que espacialmente está tao próximo, mas socialmente muito distante