Relative humidity changes in a warmer climate

Key climate feedbacks due to water vapor and clouds rest largely on how relative humidity R changes in a warmer climate, yet this has not been extensively analyzed in models. General circulation models (GCMs) from the CMIP3 archive and several higher resolution atmospheric GCMs examined here generally predict a characteristic pattern of R trend with global temperature that has been reported previously in individual models, including increase around the tropopause, decrease in the tropical upper troposphere, and decrease in midlatitudes. This pattern is very similar to that previously reported for cloud cover in the same GCMs, confirming the role of R in controlling changes in simulated cloud. Comparing different models, the trend in each part of the troposphere is approximately proportional to the upward and/or poleward gradient of R in the present climate. While this suggests that the changes simply reflect a shift of the R pattern upward with the tropopause and poleward with the zonal jets, the drying trend in the subtropics is roughly three times too large to be attributable to shifts of subtropical features, and the subtropical R minima deepen in most models. R trends are correlated with horizontal model resolution, especially outside the tropics, where they show signs of convergence and latitudinal gradients become close to available observations for GCM resolutions near T85 and higher. We argue that much of the systematic change in R can be explained by the local specific humidity having been set (by condensation) in remote regions with different temperature changes, hence the gradients and trends each depend on a model’s ability to resolve moisture transport. Finally, subtropical drying trends predicted from the warming alone fall well short of those observed in recent decades. While this discrepancy supports previous reports of GCMs underestimating Hadley Cell expansion, our results imply that shifts alone are not a sufficient interpretation of changes.

Impact of Resolution on the Tropical Pacific Circulation in a Matrix of Coupled Models

Results are presented from a matrix of coupled model integrations, using atmosphere resolutions of 135 and 90 km, and ocean resolutions of 1° and 1/3°, to study the impact of resolution on simulated climate. The mean state of the tropical Pacific is found to be improved in the models with a higher ocean resolution. Such an improved mean state arises from the development of tropical instability waves, which are poorly resolved at low resolution; these waves reduce the equatorial cold tongue bias. The improved ocean state also allows for a better simulation of the atmospheric Walker circulation. Several sensitivity studies have been performed to further understand the processes involved in the different component models. Significantly decreasing the horizontal momentum dissipation in the coupled model with the lower-resolution ocean has benefits for the mean tropical Pacific climate, but decreases model stability. Increasing the momentum dissipation in the coupled model with the higher-resolution ocean degrades the simulation toward that of the lower-resolution ocean. These results suggest that enhanced ocean model resolution can have important benefits for the climatology of both the atmosphere and ocean components of the coupled model, and that some of these benefits may be achievable at lower ocean resolution, if the model formulation allows.

Proceedings of the Ninth Annual Conference of the British Association for Biological Anthropology and Osteoarchaeology, Department of Archaeology, University of Reading

The Proceedings of the Ninth Annual Conference of the British Association for Biological Anthropology and Osteoarchaeology (BABAO) held at the University of Reading in 2007. Contents: 1) A life course perspective of growing up in medieval London: evidence of sub-adult health from St Mary Spital (London) (Rebecca Redfern and Don Walker); 2) Preservation of non-adult long bones from an almshouse cemetery in the United States dating to the late nineteenth to the early twentieth centuries (Colleen Milligan, Jessica Zotcavage and Norman Sullivan); 3) Childhood oral health: dental palaeopathology of Kellis 2, Dakhleh, Egypt. A preliminary investigation (Stephanie Shukrum and JE Molto); 4) Skeletal manifestation of non-adult scurvy from early medieval Northumbria: the Black Gate cemetery, Newcastle-upon-Tyne (Diana Mahoney-Swales and Pia Nystrom); 5) Infantile cortical hyperostosis: cases, causes and contradictions (Mary Lewis and Rebecca Gowland); 6) Biological Anthropology Tuberculosis of the hip in the Victorian Britain (Benjamin Clarke and Piers Mitchell); 7) The re-analysis of Iron Age human skeletal material from Winnall Down (Justine Tracey); 8) Can we estimate post-mortem interval from an individual body part? A field study using sus scrofa (Branka Franicevec and Robert Pastor); 9) The expression of asymmetry in hand bones from the medieval cemetery at Écija, Spain (Lisa Cashmore and Sonia Zakrezewski); 10) Returning remains: a curator’s view (Quinton Carroll); 11) Authority and decision making over British human remains: issues and challenges (Piotr Bienkowski and Malcolm Chapman); 12) Ethical dimensions of reburial, retention and repatriation of archaeological human remains: a British perspective (Simon Mays and Martin Smith); 13) The problem of provenace: inaccuracies, changes and misconceptions (Margaret Clegg); 14) Native American human remains in UK collections: implications of NAGPRA to consultation, repatriation, and policy development (Myra J Giesen); 15) Repatriation – a view from the receiving end: New Zealand (Nancy Tayles).

Evidence for long-term regional changes in precipitation on the East Coast Mountains in Mauritius

Global climate change and its impacts are being increasingly studied and precipitation trends are one of the measures of quantifying climate change especially in the tropics. This study uses daily rainfall data to determine if there are changes in the long-term trends in rainfall variability in the East Coast Mountains of Mauritius during the last few decades, and to investigate the factors influencing the trends in the inter-annual to inter-decadal rainfall variability. Statistical modelling has been used to investigate the trends in total seasonal rainfall, the number of rain days and the mean amount of rain per rainy days and the local, regional and large-scale factors that affect them on inter-annual to inter-decadal time scales. The strongest inter-decadal trend was found in the number of rain days for both rainfall seasons, and the other variables were found to have weak or insignificant trends. Both local factors, such as the surrounding sea surface temperatures and large-scale phenomena such as Indian Monsoon and the El Niño Southern Oscillation were found to influence rainfall patterns.

Century-of-Information Research (CIR): a strategy for research and innovation in the century of information

More data will be produced in the next five years than in the entire history of human kind, a digital deluge that marks the beginning of the Century of Information. Through a year-long consultation with UK researchers, a coherent strategy has been developed, which will nurture Century-of-Information Research (CIR); it crystallises the ideas developed by the e-Science Directors' Forum Strategy Working Group. This paper is an abridged version of their latest report which can be found at: http://wikis.nesc.ac.uk/escienvoy/Century_of_Information_Research_Strategy which also records the consultation process and the affiliations of the authors. This document is derived from a paper presented at the Oxford e-Research Conference 2008 and takes into account suggestions made in the ensuing panel discussion. The goals of the CIR Strategy are to facilitate the growth of UK research and innovation that is data and computationally intensive and to develop a new culture of 'digital-systems judgement' that will equip research communities, businesses, government and society as a whole, with the skills essential to compete and prosper in the Century of Information. The CIR Strategy identifies a national requirement for a balanced programme of coordination, research, infrastructure, translational investment and education to empower UK researchers, industry, government and society. The Strategy is designed to deliver an environment which meets the needs of UK researchers so that they can respond agilely to challenges, can create knowledge and skills, and can lead new kinds of research. It is a call to action for those engaged in research, those providing data and computational facilities, those governing research and those shaping education policies. The ultimate aim is to help researchers strengthen the international competitiveness of the UK research base and increase its contribution to the economy. The objectives of the Strategy are to better enable UK researchers across all disciplines to contribute world-leading fundamental research; to accelerate the translation of research into practice; and to develop improved capabilities, facilities and context for research and innovation. It envisages a culture that is better able to grasp the opportunities provided by the growing wealth of digital information. Computing has, of course, already become a fundamental tool in all research disciplines. The UK e-Science programme (2001-06)—since emulated internationally—pioneered the invention and use of new research methods, and a new wave of innovations in digital-information technologies which have enabled them. The Strategy argues that the UK must now harness and leverage its own, plus the now global, investment in digital-information technology in order to spread the benefits as widely as possible in research, education, industry and government. Implementing the Strategy would deliver the computational infrastructure and its benefits as envisaged in the Science & Innovation Investment Framework 2004-2014 (July 2004), and in the reports developing those proposals. To achieve this, the Strategy proposes the following actions: support the continuous innovation of digital-information research methods; provide easily used, pervasive and sustained e-Infrastructure for all research; enlarge the productive research community which exploits the new methods efficiently; generate capacity, propagate knowledge and develop skills via new curricula; and develop coordination mechanisms to improve the opportunities for interdisciplinary research and to make digital-infrastructure provision more cost effective. To gain the best value for money strategic coordination is required across a broad spectrum of stakeholders. A coherent strategy is essential in order to establish and sustain the UK as an international leader of well-curated national data assets and computational infrastructure, which is expertly used to shape policy, support decisions, empower researchers and to roll out the results to the wider benefit of society. The value of data as a foundation for wellbeing and a sustainable society must be appreciated; national resources must be more wisely directed to the collection, curation, discovery, widening access, analysis and exploitation of these data. Every researcher must be able to draw on skills, tools and computational resources to develop insights, test hypotheses and translate inventions into productive use, or to extract knowledge in support of governmental decision making. This foundation plus the skills developed will launch significant advances in research, in business, in professional practice and in government with many consequent benefits for UK citizens. The Strategy presented here addresses these complex and interlocking requirements.

Global transcript analysis of rice leaf and seed using SAGE technology.

We have compiled two comprehensive gene expression profiles from mature leaf and immature seed tissue of rice (Oryza sativa ssp. japonica cultivar Nipponbare) using Serial Analysis of Gene Expression (SAGE) technology. Analysis revealed a total of 50 519 SAGE tags, corresponding to 15 131 unique transcripts. Of these, the large majority (approximately 70%) occur only once in both libraries. Unexpectedly, the most abundant transcript (approximately 3% of the total) in the leaf library was derived from a type 3 metallothionein gene. The overall frequency profiles of the abundant tag species from both tissues differ greatly and reveal seed tissue as exhibiting a non-typical pattern of gene expression characterized by an over abundance of a small number of transcripts coding for storage proteins. A high proportion ( approximately 80%) of the abundant tags (> or = 9) matched entries in our reference rice EST database, with many fewer matches for low abundant tags. Singleton transcripts that are common to both tissues were collated to generate a summary of low abundant transcripts that are expressed constitutively in rice tissues. Finally and most surprisingly, a significant number of tags were found to code for antisense transcripts, a finding that suggests a novel mechanism of gene regulation, and may have implications for the use of antisense constructs in transgenic technology.

Process planning methodology: dynamic short-term planning for off-site construction in Slovenia

Planning is a vital element of project management but it is still not recognized as a process variable. Its objective should be to outperform the initially defined processes, and foresee and overcome possible undesirable events. Detailed task-level master planning is unrealistic since one cannot accurately predict all the requirements and obstacles before work has even started. The process planning methodology (PPM) has thus been developed in order to overcome common problems of the overwhelming project complexity. The essential elements of the PPM are the process planning group (PPG), including a control team that dynamically links the production/site and management, and the planning algorithm embodied within two continuous-improvement loops. The methodology was tested on a factory project in Slovenia and in four successive projects of a similar nature. In addition to a number of improvement ideas and enhanced communication, the applied PPM resulted in 32% higher total productivity, 6% total savings and created a synergistic project environment.

An adaptive approach to implementing bivariate group sequential clinical trial designs

In clinical trials, situations often arise where more than one response from each patient is of interest; and it is required that any decision to stop the study be based upon some or all of these measures simultaneously. Theory for the design of sequential experiments with simultaneous bivariate responses is described by Jennison and Turnbull (Jennison, C., Turnbull, B. W. (1993). Group sequential tests for bivariate response: interim analyses of clinical trials with both efficacy and safety endpoints. Biometrics 49:741-752) and Cook and Farewell (Cook, R. J., Farewell, V. T. (1994). Guidelines for monitoring efficacy and toxicity responses in clinical trials. Biometrics 50:1146-1152) in the context of one efficacy and one safety response. These expositions are in terms of normally distributed data with known covariance. The methods proposed require specification of the correlation, ρ between test statistics monitored as part of the sequential test. It can be difficult to quantify ρ and previous authors have suggested simply taking the lowest plausible value, as this will guarantee power. This paper begins with an illustration of the effect that inappropriate specification of ρ can have on the preservation of trial error rates. It is shown that both the type I error and the power can be adversely affected. As a possible solution to this problem, formulas are provided for the calculation of correlation from data collected as part of the trial. An adaptive approach is proposed and evaluated that makes use of these formulas and an example is provided to illustrate the method. Attention is restricted to the bivariate case for ease of computation, although the formulas derived are applicable in the general multivariate case.