A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

LH surge in Nelore cows (Bos indicus), after induced estrus or after ovarian superestimulation

Considering, that there is limited information about the preovulatory LH surge in Zebu Cattle (Bos indicus). the purpose of the present work was to assess the LH surge in Nelore cows during the estrous cycle and after ovarian superestimulation of ovarian follicular development with FSH. This information is particularly important to improve superovulatory protocols associated with fixed-time artificial insemination. Nelore cows (n = 12) had their estrus synchronized with all intravaginal device containing progesterone (CIDR-B (R)) associated with estradiol benzoate administration (EB, 2.5 mg, i.m., Day 0). Eight days later all animals were treated with PGF2 alpha (Day 8) in the morning (8:00 h) and at night, when CIDR devices were removed (20:00 11). Starting 38 h after the first PGF2 alpha injection, blood sampling and ovarian ultrasonography took place every 4 h, during 37 consecutive hours. Frequent handling may have resulted in a stress-induced suppression of LH secretion resulting in only 3 of 12 cows having ovulations at 46.7 +/- 4.9 and 72.3 +/- 3.8 h, respectively, after removal of CIDR-B. Thirty days later, the same animals received the described hormonal treatment associated with FSH (Folltropin (R) total dose = 200 mg) administered twice a day, during 4 consecutive days, starting on Day 5. Thirty-six hours after the first injection of PGF2 alpha, to minimize stress. only seven blood samples were collected at 4 h interval each. and ultrasonography was performed every 12 h until ovulation. In 11 of 12 cows (92%) the LH surge and ovulation were observed 34.6 +/- 1.6 and 59.5 +/- 1.9 h. respectively. after removal of progesterone source. The maximum values for LH in those animals were 19.0 +/- 2.6 ng/ml (mean +/- S.E.M.). It is concluded that, in Nelore COWS submitted to a ovarian superstimulation Protocol, the LH surge occurs approximately 35 It after removal of intravaginal device containing progesterone, and approximately 12h before the LH surge observed after an induced estrus without ovarian superstimulation (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ethanol Wet-bonding Challenges Current Anti-degradation Strategy

The long-term effectiveness of chlorhexidine as a matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) inhibitor may be compromised when water is incompletely removed during dentin bonding. This study challenged this anti-bond degradation strategy by testing the null hypothesis that wet-bonding with water or ethanol has no effect on the effectiveness of chlorhexidine in preventing hybrid layer degradation over an 18-month period. Acid-etched dentin was bonded under pulpal pressure simulation with Scotchbond MP and Single Bond 2, with water wet-bonding or with a hydrophobic adhesive with ethanol wet-bonding, with or without pre-treatment with chlorhexidine diacetate (CHD). Resin-dentin beams were prepared for bond strength and TEM evaluation after 24 hrs and after aging in artificial saliva for 9 and 18 mos. Bonds made to ethanol-saturated dentin did not change over time with preservation of hybrid layer integrity. Bonds made to CHD pre-treated acid-etched dentin with commercial adhesives with water wet-bonding were preserved after 9 mos but not after 18 mos, with severe hybrid layer degradation. The results led to rejection of the null hypothesis and highlight the concept of biomimetic water replacement from the collagen intrafibrillar compartments as the ultimate goal in extending the longevity of resin-dentin bonds.

A responsible gambling strategy for older Queenslanders: Final Report

This study investigates the needs, experiences, behaviours and attitudes of older Queenslanders who participate in gambling. It aims to understand the special needs and circumstances of older Queensland gamblers which might make them particularly vulnerable to problem gambling behaviour, or other negative effects of gambling. The findings of the research will provide an evidence base for the development of initiatives and policies that can address the specific prevention, protection and rehabilitation needs of older gamblers. This is with a particular view to informing the ongoing development and implementation of the Queensland Government’s Responsible Gambling Strategy and its voluntary industry code – the Queensland Responsible Gambling Code of Practice.

The effects of copper on the microbial community of a coral reef sponge

Marine sponges often harbour communities of symbiotic microorganisms that fulfil necessary functions for the well-being of their hosts. Microbial communities associated with the sponge Rhopaloeides odorabile were used as bioindicators far sublethal cupric ion (Cu2+) stress. A combined strategy incorporating molecular, cultivation and electron microscopy techniques was adopted to monitor changes in microbial diversity. The total density of sponge-associated bacteria and counts of the predominant cultivated symbiont (alpha -proteobacterium strain NW001) were significantly reduced in response to Cu2+ concentrations of 1.7 mug l(-1) and above after 14 days of exposure. The number of operational taxonomic units (OTUs) detected by restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) decreased by 64% in sponges exposed to 223 mug l(-1) Cu2+ for 48 h and by 46% in sponges exposed to 19.4 mug l(-1) Cu2+ for 14 days. Electron microscopy was used to identify 17 predominant bacterial morphotypes, composing 47% of the total observed cells in control sponges. A reduction In the proportion of these morphotypes to 25% of observed cells was evident in sponges exposed to a Cu2+ concentration of 19.4 mug l(-1). Although the abundance of most morphotypes decreased under Cu2+ stress, three morphotypes were not reduced in numbers and a single morphotype actually increased in abundance. Bacterial numbers, as detected using fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH), decreased significantly after 48 h exposure to 19.4 mug l(-1) Cu2+. Archaea, which are normally prolific in R. odorabile, were not detected after exposure to a Cu2+ concentration of 19.4 mug l(-1) for 14 days, indicating that many of the microorganisms associated with R. odorabile are sensitive to free copper. Sponges exposed to a Cu2+ concentration of 223 mug l(-1) became highly necrosed after 48 h and accumulated 142 +/- 18 mg kg(-1) copper, whereas sponges exposed to 19.4 mug l(-1) Cu2+ accumulated 306 +/- 15 mg kg(-1) copper after 14 days without apoptosis or mortality. Not only do sponges have potential for monitoring elevated concentrations of heavy metals but also examining changes in their microbial symbionts is a novel and sensitive bioindicator for the assessment of pollution on important microbial communities.

Effects of sampling opportunities on preference for adults with severe disabilities

A variable that appears to affect preference development is the exposure to a variety of options. Providing opportunities for systematically sampling different options is one procedure that can facilitate the development of preference, which is indicated by the consistency of selections. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of providing sampling opportunities on the preference development for two adults with severe disabilities. Opportunities for sampling a variety of drink items were presented, followed by choice opportunities for selections at the site where sampling occurred and at a non-sampling site (a grocery store). Results show that the participants developed a definite response consistency in selections at both sites. Implications for sampling practices are discussed.

Diffusion modeling of percutaneous absorption kinetics: 2. Finite vehicle volume and solvent deposited solids

The diffusion model for percutaneous absorption is developed for the specific case of delivery to the skin being limited by the application of a finite amount of solute. Two cases are considered; in the first, there is an application of a finite donor (vehicle) volume, and in the second, there are solvent-deposited solids and a thin vehicle with a high partition coefficient. In both cases, the potential effect of an interfacial resistance at the stratum corneum surface is also considered. As in the previous paper, which was concerned with the application of a constant donor concentration, clearance limitations due to the viable eqidermis, the in vitro sampling rate, or perfusion rate in vivo are included. Numerical inversion of the Laplace domain solutions was used for simulations of solute flux and cumulative amount absorbed and to model specific examples of percutaneous absorption of solvent-deposited solids. It was concluded that numerical inversions of the Laplace domain solutions for a diffusion model of the percutaneous absorption, using standard scientific software (such as SCIENTIST, MicroMath Scientific software) on modern personal computers, is a practical alternative to computation of infinite series solutions. Limits of the Laplace domain solutions were used to define the moments of the flux-time profiles for finite donor volumes and the slope of the terminal log flux-time profile. The mean transit time could be related to the diffusion time through stratum corneum, viable epidermal, and donor diffusion layer resistances and clearance from the receptor phase. Approximate expressions for the time to reach maximum flux (peak time) and maximum flux were also derived. The model was then validated using reported amount-time and flux-time profiles for finite doses applied to the skin. It was concluded that for very small donor phase volume or for very large stratum corneum-vehicle partitioning coefficients (e.g., for solvent deposited solids), the flux and amount of solute absorbed are affected by receptor conditions to a lesser extent than is obvious for a constant donor constant donor concentrations. (C) 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc. and the American Pharmaceutical Association J Pharm Sci 90:504-520, 2001.

Justice strategy options for increased customer satisfaction in a services recovery setting

This study investigates the influence of justice (procedural, interactional and distributive) on measures of customer satisfaction within a hotel setting. Specifically, the study investigates the levels of satisfaction associated with various combinations of procedural, interactional, and distributive justice related service recovery strategies. Using especially designed video vignettes of a hotel service breakdown, respondents rated their levels of satisfaction for the video vignettes that depicted varying levels of. (a) level of concern shown by the service provider, (b) whether policy was adhered to, (c) degree of 'voice' given to the customer, and (d) type of compensation. Between subject MANOVA analyses revealed a number of main effects and interactions. Results clearly show that satisfaction varied significantly depending on the various combinations of recovery measures. In particular, a two-way interaction between adherence to policy and type of compensation was found. Furthermore, it was found that respondents expressed higher satisfaction with the service when a 50% refund was given, and the provider was seen to be adhering to policy, rather than doing a special favor for the customer. In contrast, when a token measure of compensation is given (i.e. giving away a couple of drink vouchers), respondents expressed higher levels of satisfaction if the service provider was doing a special favor rather than merely adhering to company policy. Implications for managers and scholars are discussed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.