Merging Resource Availability with Isotope Mixing Models: The Role of Neutral Interaction Assumptions

Background: Bayesian mixing models have allowed for the inclusion of uncertainty and prior information in the analysis of trophic interactions using stable isotopes. Formulating prior distributions is relatively straightforward when incorporating dietary data. However, the use of data that are related, but not directly proportional, to diet (such as prey availability data) is often problematic because such information is not necessarily predictive of diet, and the information required to build a reliable prior distribution for all prey species is often unavailable. Omitting prey availability data impacts the estimation of a predator's diet and introduces the strong assumption of consumer ultrageneralism (where all prey are consumed in equal proportions), particularly when multiple prey have similar isotope values. Methodology: We develop a procedure to incorporate prey availability data into Bayesian mixing models conditional on the similarity of isotope values between two prey. If a pair of prey have similar isotope values (resulting in highly uncertain mixing model results), our model increases the weight of availability data in estimating the contribution of prey to a predator's diet. We test the utility of this method in an intertidal community against independently measured feeding rates. Conclusions: Our results indicate that our weighting procedure increases the accuracy by which consumer diets can be inferred in situations where multiple prey have similar isotope values. This suggests that the exchange of formalism for predictive power is merited, particularly when the relationship between prey availability and a predator's diet cannot be assumed for all species in a system.

Determination of the minimum value of the safety factor from geodesic Alfven eigenmodes in Joint European Torus

An analysis of the experimental conditions under which low-frequency (70-150 kHz) Alfven eigertmodes (AE) are excited during the monster sawtooth in Joint European Torus [F Romanelli et al, Proceedings of the 22nd IAEA Fusion Energy Conference, Geneva, Switzerland, 2008] is presented for the specific case of a discharge with ion cyclotron heating (5 MW) Using a simplified AE model for modes excited at the Alfven wave continuum maximum with geodesic corrections taken into account, the temporal evolution of the value of the safety factor q(0) at the magnetic axis is determined We describe a new scheme to determine the time variation of q(0) that works under conditions in which other standard diagnostics, such as the motional Stark effect do not give reliable results such as during a monster sawtooth [doi 10 1063/1 3494212]

Polar organic marker compounds in atmospheric aerosols during the LBA-SMOCC 2002 biomass burning experiment in Rondonia, Brazil: sources and source processes, time series, diel variations and size distributions

Measurements of polar organic marker compounds were performed on aerosols that were collected at a pasture site in the Amazon basin (Rondonia, Brazil) using a high-volume dichotomous sampler (HVDS) and a Micro-Orifice Uniform Deposit Impactor (MOUDI) within the framework of the 2002 LBA-SMOCC (Large-Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia - Smoke Aerosols, Clouds, Rainfall, and Climate: Aerosols From Biomass Burning Perturb Global and Regional Climate) campaign. The campaign spanned the late dry season (biomass burning), a transition period, and the onset of the wet season (clean conditions). In the present study a more detailed discussion is presented compared to previous reports on the behavior of selected polar marker compounds, including levoglucosan, malic acid, isoprene secondary organic aerosol (SOA) tracers and tracers for fungal spores. The tracer data are discussed taking into account new insights that recently became available into their stability and/or aerosol formation processes. During all three periods, levoglucosan was the most dominant identified organic species in the PM(2.5) size fraction of the HVDS samples. In the dry period levoglucosan reached concentrations of up to 7.5 mu g m(-3) and exhibited diel variations with a nighttime prevalence. It was closely associated with the PM mass in the size-segregated samples and was mainly present in the fine mode, except during the wet period where it peaked in the coarse mode. Isoprene SOA tracers showed an average concentration of 250 ng m(-3) during the dry period versus 157 ng m(-3) during the transition period and 52 ng m(-3) during the wet period. Malic acid and the 2-methyltetrols exhibited a different size distribution pattern, which is consistent with different aerosol formation processes (i.e., gas-to-particle partitioning in the case of malic acid and heterogeneous formation from gas-phase precursors in the case of the 2-methyltetrols). The 2-methyltetrols were mainly associated with the fine mode during all periods, while malic acid was prevalent in the fine mode only during the dry and transition periods, and dominant in the coarse mode during the wet period. The sum of the fungal spore tracers arabitol, mannitol, and erythritol in the PM(2.5) fraction of the HVDS samples during the dry, transition, and wet periods was, on average, 54 ng m(-3), 34 ng m(-3), and 27 ng m(-3), respectively, and revealed minor day/night variation. The mass size distributions of arabitol and mannitol during all periods showed similar patterns and an association with the coarse mode, consistent with their primary origin. The results show that even under the heavy smoke conditions of the dry period a natural background with contributions from bioaerosols and isoprene SOA can be revealed. The enhancement in isoprene SOA in the dry season is mainly attributed to an increased acidity of the aerosols, increased NO(x) concentrations and a decreased wet deposition.

Higher Moments of Net Proton Multiplicity Distributions at RHIC

200 GeV corresponding to baryon chemical potentials (mu(B)) between 200 and 20 MeV. Our measurements of the products kappa sigma(2) and S sigma, which can be related to theoretical calculations sensitive to baryon number susceptibilities and long-range correlations, are constant as functions of collision centrality. We compare these products with results from lattice QCD and various models without a critical point and study the root s(NN) dependence of kappa sigma(2). From the measurements at the three beam energies, we find no evidence for a critical point in the QCD phase diagram for mu(B) below 200 MeV.

Barrier distributions for weakly bound systems

We discuss the use of reduced fusion cross sections in the derivation of fusion barrier distributions. We show that the elimination of static effects associated with system sizes and optical potentials obtained by the recently introduced fusion functions can be extended to barrier distributions. This can be a useful tool for systematic studies of breakup coupling effects in fusion processes.

THE SUMMATION OF VOLUNTARY AND ELECTRICAL ELICITED STIMULUS INCREASES JOINT TORQUE?

The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of neuromuscular electrical stimulation (NMES) on myoelectrical activity and on joint torque during isometric plantar flexion contraction. Ten healthy young adult subjects participate in this study. The electrodes for NMES are placed along posterior thigh along ciatic nerve trajectory. It is measured the myoelectrical activity and the isometric torque generated by ankle plantar flexion with an isokinetic dynamometer. The conditions of isometric contractions are maximum isometric voluntary contraction (MIVC), NMES, and association of both (MIVC+NMES). The results show lower torque during NMES and larger SOL activity compare to the others. Besides, in order to keep the same objective task (to produce the same level of torque), neuromuscular adaptations are necessary on the common drive.

Effects of joint immobilization on standing balance

We investigated the effect of joint immobilization on the postural sway during quiet standing. We hypothesized that the center of pressure (COP), rambling, and trembling trajectories would be affected by joint immobilization. Ten young adults stood on a force plate during 60 s without and with immobilized joints (only knees constrained, CK; knees and hips, CH; and knees, hips, and trunk, CT). with their eyes open (OE) or closed (CE). The root mean square deviation (RMS, the standard deviation from the mean) and mean speed of COP, rambling, and trembling trajectories in the anterior-posterior and medial-lateral directions were analyzed. Similar effects of vision were observed for both directions: larger amplitudes for all variables were observed in the CE condition. In the anterior-posterior direction, postural sway increased only when the knees, hips, and trunk were immobilized. For the medial-lateral direction, the RMS and the mean speed of the COP, rambling, and trembling displacements decreased after immobilization of knees and hips and knees, hips, and trunk. These findings indicate that the single inverted pendulum model is unable to completely explain the processes involved in the control of the quiet upright stance in the anterior-posterior and medial-lateral directions. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Joint forces and torques when walking in shallow water

This study reports for the first time an estimation of the internal net joint forces and torques on adults` lower limbs and pelvis when walking in shallow water, taking into account the drag forces generated by the movement of their bodies in the water and the equivalent data when they walk on land. A force plate and a video camera were used to perform a two-dimensional gait analysis at the sagittal plane of 10 healthy young adults walking at comfortable speeds on land and in water at a chest-high level. We estimated the drag force on each body segment and the joint forces and torques at the ankle, knee, and hip of the right side of their bodies using inverse dynamics. The observed subjects` apparent weight in water was about 35% of their weight on land and they were about 2.7 times slower when walking in water. When the subjects walked in water compared with walking on land, there were no differences in the angular displacements but there was a significant reduction in the joint torques which was related to the water`s depth. The greatest reduction was observed for the ankle and then the knee and no reduction was observed for the hip. All joint powers were significantly reduced in water. The compressive and shear joint forces were on average about three times lower during walking in water than on land. These quantitative results substantiate the use of water as a safe environment for practicing low-impact exercises, particularly walking. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mechanical strength evaluation for Nd-YAG laser and electric resistance spot weld (ERSW) joint under multiaxial loading

This work presents a comparison between laser weld (LBW) and electric resistance spot weld (ERSW) processes used for assemblies of components in a body-in-white (BIW) at a world class automotive industry. It is carried out by evaluating the mechanical strength modeled both by experimental and numerical methods. An ""Arcan"" multiaxial test was designed and manufactured in order to enable 0 degrees, 45 degrees and 90 degrees directional loadings. The welded specimens were uncoated low carbon steel sheets (S-y = 170 MPa) used currently at the automotive industry, with two different thicknesses: 0.80 and 1.20 mm. A numerical analysis was carried out using the finite element method (FEM) through LS-DYNA code. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ASTM A923-Practice A application to identify intermetallic phases in a UNS S32750 superduplex welded joint

Duplex and superduplex stainless steels present superior mechanical and corrosion properties when compared to usual stainless steels. This superiority is based on chemical composition when in a balanced microstructure (approximately 50% of ferrite). During welding, changes may occur in both, the chemical composition and volume fraction of phases in the material, which may generate the presence of intermetallic phases and, as a consequence, modify the mechanical and corrosion properties of this group of stainless steels. The objective of this work is to apply ASTM A923- Practice A to verify the presence of intermetallic phases in welded joints of UNS 32750 su-perduplex stainless steel. Tubes of UNS 32750, with external diameters of 18 and 44 mm and a thickness of 1.5 mm, were welded using orbital GTAW, with filler metal 25Cr-10Ni-4Mo and a diameter of 0.8 mm. The metal-based and welded joints were characterized by optical and scanning electron microscopy. The results showed that there was no precipitation of the intermetallic phase, such as sigma phase, detected by ASTM A923, but the HAZ of the two tubes studied presented small regions with chromium nitrides, which can also change the properties of welded joins.

Extensions of discrete triangular distributions and boundary bias in kernel estimation for discrete functions

Asymmetric discrete triangular distributions are introduced in order to extend the symmetric ones serving for discrete associated kernels in the nonparametric estimation for discrete functions. The extension from one to two orders around the mode provides a large family of discrete distributions having a finite support. Establishing a bridge between Dirac and discrete uniform distributions, some different shapes are also obtained and their properties are investigated. In particular, the mean and variance are pointed out. Applications to discrete kernel estimators are given with a solution to a boundary bias problem. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pricing farm-level agricultural insurance: a Bayesian approach

This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.