Measuring and modelling the influence of investor behaviour on investment decision making

Guest editorial

An econometric analysis of international tourism demand in Hong Kong : a cointegration and error correction approach

The purpose of this study is to develop econometric models to better understand the economic factors affecting inbound tourist flows from each of six origin countries that contribute to Hong Kong’s international tourism demand. To this end, we test alternative cointegration and error correction approaches to examine the economic determinants of tourist flows to Hong Kong, and to produce accurate econometric forecasts of inbound tourism demand. Our empirical findings show that permanent income is the most significant determinant of tourism demand in all models. The variables of own price, weighted substitute prices, trade volume, the share price index (as an indicator of changes in wealth in origin countries), and a dummy variable representing the Beijing incident (1989) are also found to be important determinants for some origin countries. The average long-run income and own price elasticity was measured at 2.66 and – 1.02, respectively. It was hypothesised that permanent income is a better explanatory variable of long-haul tourism demand than current income. A novel approach (grid search process) has been used to empirically derive the weights to be attached to the lagged income variable for estimating permanent income. The results indicate that permanent income, estimated with empirically determined relatively small weighting factors, was capable of producing better results than the current income variable in explaining long-haul tourism demand. This finding suggests that the use of current income in previous empirical tourism demand studies may have produced inaccurate results. The share price index, as a measure of wealth, was also found to be significant in two models. Studies of tourism demand rarely include wealth as an explanatory forecasting long-haul tourism demand. However, finding a satisfactory proxy for wealth common to different countries is problematic. This study indicates with the ECM (Error Correction Models) based on the Engle-Granger (1987) approach produce more accurate forecasts than ECM based on Pesaran and Shin (1998) and Johansen (1988, 1991, 1995) approaches for all of the long-haul markets and Japan. Overall, ECM produce better forecasts than the OLS, ARIMA and NAÏVE models, indicating the superiority of the application of a cointegration approach for tourism demand forecasting. The results show that permanent income is the most important explanatory variable for tourism demand from all countries but there are substantial variations between countries with the long-run elasticity ranging between 1.1 for the U.S. and 5.3 for U.K. Price is the next most important variable with the long-run elasticities ranging between -0.8 for Japan and -1.3 for Germany and short-run elasticities ranging between – 0.14 for Germany and -0.7 for Taiwan. The fastest growing market is Mainland China. The findings have implications for policies and strategies on investment, marketing promotion and pricing.

Financial liberalization and dynamics of firm-level financing and investment decisions in the Southeast Asian countries

This thesis examines the dynamics of firm-level financing and investment decisions for six Southeast Asian countries. The study provides empirical evidence on the impacts of changes in the firm-level financing decisions during the period of financial liberalization by considering the debt and equity financing decisions of a set of non-financial firms. The empirical results show that firms in Indonesia, Pakistan, and South Korea have relatively faster speed of adjustment than other Southeast Asian countries to attain optimal debt and equity ratios in response to banking sector and stock market liberalization. In addition, contrary to widely held belief that firms adjust their financial ratios to industry levels, the results indicate that industry factors do not significantly impact on the speed of capital structure adjustments. This study also shows that non-linear estimation methods are more appropriate than linear estimation methods for capturing changes in capital structure. The empirical results also show that international stock market integration of these countries has significantly reduced the equity risk premium as well as the firm-level cost of equity capital. Thus stock market liberalization is associated with a decrease in the cost of equity capital of the firms. Developments in the securities markets infrastructure have also reduced the cost of equity capital. However, with increased integration there is the possibility of capital outflows from the emerging markets, which might reverse the pattern of decrease in cost of capital in these markets.

An investigation of the emerging system of host government participation in the international oil industry with particular reference to Libyan participation arrangements

This study has been conceived with the primary objective of identifying and evaluating the financial aspects of the transformation in country/company relations of the international oil industry from the traditional concessionary system to the system of governmental participation in the ownership and operation of oil concessions. The emphasis of the inquiry was placed on assembling a case study of the oil exploitation arrangements of Libya. Through a comprehensive review of the literature, the sociopolitical factors surrounding the international oil business were identified and examined in an attempt to see their influence on contractual arrangements and particularly to gauge the impact of any induced contractual changes on the revenue benefit accruing to the host country from its oil operations. Some comparative analyses were made in the study to examine the viability of the Libyan participation deals both as an investment proposal and as a system of conducting oil activities in the country. The analysis was carried out in the light of specific hypotheses to assess the relative impact of the participation scheme in comparison with the alternative concessionary model on the net revenue resulting to the government from oil operations and the relative effect on the level of research and development within the industry. A discounted cash flow analysis was conducted to measure inputs and outputs of the comparative models and judge their revenue benefits. Then an empirical analysis was carried out to detect any significant behavioural changes in the exploration and development effort associated with the different oil exploitation systems. Results of the investigation of revenues support the argument that the mere introduction of the participation system has not resulted in a significant revenue benefit to the host government. Though there has been a significant increase in government revenue, associated with the period following the emergence of the participation agreements, this increase was mainly due to socio-economic factors other than the participation scheme. At the same time the empirical results have shown an association of the participation scheme with a decline of the oil industry's research and development efforts.

Environmental regulation induced foreign direct investment

The last decade has witnessed a renewed interest in the relationship between environmental regulations and international capital flows. However, empirical studies have so far failed to find conclusive evidence for this so-called pollution haven or race to the bottom effect where foreign direct investment (FDI) is assumed to be attracted to low regulation countries, regions or states. In this paper we present a simple theoretical framework to demonstrate that greater stringency in environmental standards can lead to a strategic increase in capital inflows which we refer to as environmental regulation induced FDI. Our result reveals a possible explanation for the mixed results in the empirical literature and provides an illustration of the conditions under which environmental regulations in the host country can affect the location decision of foreign firms.

International technology transfer and development of capabilities in Chinese state-owned manufacturing enterprises:lessons from 20 years of case research

Technological capabilities in Chinese manufacturing have been transformed in the last three decades. However, the extent to which domestic market oriented state owned enterprises (SOEs) have developed their capabilities is not clear. Six SOEs in the automotive, steel and machine tools sectors in Beijing and Tianjin have been studied since the mid-1990s to assess the capability levels attained and the role of external sources and internal efforts in developing them. Aided by government policies, acquisition of technology and their own efforts, the case study companies appear to be broadly following the East Asian late industrialisation model. All six enterprises demonstrate competences in operating established technology, managing investment and making product and process improvements. The evidence suggests that companies without foreign joint venture (JV) collaborations have made more progress in this respect.

Selectivity and timing performance of UK investment trusts

This study examines the selectivity and timing performance of 218 UK investment trusts over the period July 1981 to June 2009. We estimate the Treynor and Mazuy (1966) and Henriksson and Merton (1981) models augmented with the size, value, and momentum factors, either under the OLS method adjusted with the Newey-West procedure or under the GARCH(1,1)-in-mean method following the specification of Glosten et al. (1993; hereafter GJR-GARCH-M). We find that the OLS method provides little evidence in favour of the selectivity and timing ability, consistent with previous studies. Interestingly, the GJR-GARCH-M method reverses this result, showing some relatively strong evidence on favourable selectivity ability, particularly for international funds, as well as favourable timing ability, particularly for domestic funds. We conclude that the GJR-GARCH-M method performs better in evaluating fund performance compared with the OLS method and the non-parametric approach, as it essentially accounts for the time-varying characteristics of factor loadings and hence obtains more reliable results, in particular, when the high frequency data, such as the daily returns, are used in the analysis. Our results are robust to various in-sample and out-of-sample tests and have valuable implications for practitioners in making their asset allocation decisions across different fund styles. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

The multinational enterprise as a source of international knowledge flows:Direct evidence from Italy

This paper examines the determinants of technology transfer between parent firms and their international affiliates, and of knowledge spillovers from those affiliates to host-country firms. Using a unique data set of foreign multinational enterprise (MNE) affiliates based in Italy, we find that affiliate investment in R&D and investment in capital-embodied technology plays a significant role in determining the nature of intra-firm technology flows. However, the basis for any spillovers arising from MNE affiliates does not originate from codified knowledge associated with R&D, but rather from the productivity of the affiliate.

ICT diffusion and foreign direct investment:a comparative study between Asia-Pacific and the Middle Eastern economies

This chapter investigates the impact of inward and outward FDI on ICT diffusion in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions for the period 1996-2008. The results indicate that while inward FDI has generally had a positive and significant impact on ICT diffusion in Asia-Pacific economies, its impact on the Middle Eastern countries has been detrimental. In contrast, the results of this study also show that outward FDI has had, in general, the inverse effect, it has been in general positive and significant for the Middle East countries but insignificant for Asia-Pacific economies.

Estimating direct and indirect effects of foreign direct investment on firm productivity in the presence of interactions between firms

We implement a method to estimate the direct effects of foreign-ownership on foreign firms' productivity and the indirect effects (or spillovers) from the presence of foreign-owned firms on other foreign and domestic firms' productivity in a unifying framework, taking interactions between firms into account. To do so, we relax a fundamental assumption made in empirical studies examining a direct causal effect of foreign ownership on firm productivity, namely that of no interactions between firms. Based on our approach, we are able to combine direct and indirect effects of foreign ownership and calculate the total effect of foreign firms on local productivity. Our results show that all these effects vary with the level of foreign presence within a cluster, an important finding for the academic literature and policy debate on the benefits of attracting foreign owned firms.

"Trade creep" and implications of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement for the United Kingdom National Health Service

The ambitious and comprehensive Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement (TTIP/TAFTA) agreement between the European Union and United States is now being negotiated and may have far-reaching consequences for health services. The agreement extends to government procurement, investment, and further regulatory cooperation. In this article, we focus on the United Kingdom National Health Service and how these negotiations can limit policy space to change policies and to regulate in relation to health services, pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and health industries. The negotiation of TTIP/TAFTA has the potential to "harmonize" more corporate-friendly regulation, resulting in higher costs and loss of policy space, an example of "trade creep" that potentially compromises health equity, public health, and safety concerns across the Atlantic.

International trade law, plain packaging and tobacco industry political activity:the Trans-Pacific Partnership

Tobacco companies are increasingly turning to trade and investment agreements to challenge measures aimed at reducing tobacco use. This study examines their efforts to influence the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a major trade and investment agreement which may eventually cover 40% of the world's population; focusing on how these efforts might enhance the industry's power to challenge the introduction of plain packaging. Specifically, the paper discusses the implications for public health regulation of Philip Morris International's interest in using the TPP to: shape the bureaucratic structures and decision-making processes of business regulation at the national level; introduce a higher standard of protection for trademarks than is currently provided under the Agreement on Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights; and expand the coverage of Investor-State Dispute Settlement which empowers corporations to litigate directly against governments where they are deemed to be in breach of investment agreements. The large number of countries involved in the TPP underlines its risk to the development of tobacco regulation globally.

Regulation as country-specific (dis-)advantage:smoking bans and the location of foreign direct investment in the tobacco industry

This paper seeks to examine the relationship between smoking bans and the propensity of tobacco firms to engage in foreign direct investment (FDI). Using international business theory based on the firm-specific advantage/country-specific advantage (FSA/CSA) matrix, the authors show that, contrary to what one may expect, smoking bans at home are an important institutional intervention, reducing the propensity for firms to engage in FDI, even to countries without a ban themselves.

Business Value of IT Investment: The Case of a Low Cost Airline’s Website

Using the case of a low cost airline company’s website we analyze some special research questions of information technology valuation. The distinctive characteristics of this research are the ex post valuation perspective; the parallel and comparative use of accounting and business valuation approaches; and the integrated application of discounted cash flow and real option valuation. As the examined international company is a strategic user of e-technology and wants to manage and account intangible IT-assets explicitly, these specific valuation perspectives are gaining practical significance.