Causality detection on US mutual fund movements using evolutionary subset time-series

In this paper we develop an evolutionary kernel-based time update algorithm to recursively estimate subset discrete lag models (including fullorder models) with a forgetting factor and a constant term, using the exactwindowed case. The algorithm applies to causality detection when the true relationship occurs with a continuous or a random delay. We then demonstrate the use of the proposed evolutionary algorithm to study the monthly mutual fund data, which come from the 'CRSP Survivor-bias free US Mutual Fund Database'. The results show that the NAV is an influential player on the international stage of global bond and stock markets.

Admissible monetary aggregates for the euro area

We use the Fleissig and Whitney [Fleissig, A.R., Whitney, G.A., 2003. A new PC-based test for Varian's weak separability conditions. Journal of Business and Economics Statistics 21 (1), 133–144] weak separability test to determine admissible levels of monetary aggregation for the Euro area. We find that the Euro area monetary assets in M2 and M3 are weakly separable and construct admissible Divisia monetary aggregates for these assets. We show that real growth of the admissible Divisia aggregates enters the Euro area IS curve positively and significantly for the period from 1980 to 2005. Out of sample, we show that Divisia M2 and M3 appear to contain useful information for forecasting Euro area inflation.

Monetáris hatásosság közösségi szinten (The community level efficiency of monetary policy)

A monetáris integráció központi szereplője a Közösség jegybankja. A közös valuta értékállóságának közvetlenül fő meghatározója a jegybank. Mozgásterét azonban több tényező alakítja. E tanulmány az intézményi és stratégiai, a tagállami (decentralizált fiskális) és a pénzpiaci környezet függvényében vizsgálja az Európai Központi Bank (ECB) lehetőségeit és monetáris politikájának hatásosságát. / === / The efficiency of the European Economic and Monetary Union is a big dilemma of European applied economics. The first part introduces the monetary policy made by ECB. Rates and objectives are the framework of efficiency analysis. The second part details the common pool resource problem in the community of EMU countries, and describes the prisoner's dilemma of indebting in a currency community. The EMU practice shows free riding behavior of many member states what generally causes higher default risks. The increasing indebtedness shows dysfunction too, as the ECB must adjust the interest rate to the higher default risk which means cost premiums for fiscally disciplined countries as well. The third part analyses the efficiency of the ECB through the standards of monetary transmission. The updated criteria can explain any success or failure of the ECB in a not perfectly homogeneous community. The measures of transmission used in the study are the way of financing (banks vs. market), terms of financing, structure of the banking sector, private sector indebtedness, structure of savings and wealth, price elasticity, interest rate elasticity, wage elasticity. They show that the single monetary policy can create tension in the community not only because of the fiscal differences but also due to money market discrepancies.

Tanulságok a gazdasági és monetáris unió számára a 2008-as világgazdasági válság kapcsán (Lessons for the Economic and Monetary Union from the 2008 global economic crisis)

Írásunkban a 2008-ban kitört világgazdasági válságnak a Gazdasági és Monetáris Unióra gyakorolt hatásait elemezzük. Tanulmányunkban rávilágítunk a Gazdasági és Monetáris Unió két olyan problémájára, amelyek a válság után váltak igazán nyilvánvalóvá. Egyrészt a görög államcsődveszély, illetve egyes, korábban jól teljesítő országok botladozása jelzi, hogy a Monetáris Unió intézményrendszere legalábbis hiányos. A másik kérdés összefügg az előzővel, és azon országok szemszögéből érdekes, amelyek csatlakozni kívánnak a GMU-hoz: felerősödtek azok a vélemények, amelyek a csatlakozás elhalasztása mellett foglalnak állást. Tanulmányunk második részében ezt a kérdést járjuk körbe. / === / In our paper we are analyze the effects of the economic crisis of 2008 on the Economic and Monetary Union. We are focusing on two core problems of the EMU which came to surface only after the outbreak of the crisis. First, we address the fiscal problems of Greece and other member states which performed well before the crisis. These problems show that there are major institutional shortcomings in the Monetary Union. The second question is connected to the first one and concerns the new member states of the European Union and their strategies to join the Euro zone. After the crisis more and more voices in the new member states suggest postponing EMU membership.

Monetary efficacy in the community level

Hypothesis of the paper is that the monetary room for manoeuvre in the European Community is determined by the institutional and strategic characteristics of the ECB, moreover the financial market environment composed by multi-state community. The methodology of the paper is built on the evaluation of the decision making and strategy of ECB as institutional aspect, and the monetary transmission in national financial markets. In policy evaluation, the monetary targeting is surveyed through HICP, monetary base, central bank rates, exchange rates and treatment of price impacts. The transmission is examined through analysis of structure of the member state’s financial markets.

Alternative Monetary Strategies before EMU Membership in Central Europe

As more and more transition coutries join the eurozone it is becoming reasonable to investigate what monetary policy might be most successful for countries prior to the introduction of the euro. One possible alternative is inflation targeting, which has found application in numerous economies in the last two decades, including the Visegrád Countries. In this paper I am introducing some important aspects and an empirical examination of the monetary policy of the Visegrád Countries. I am providing an overview of previous empirical findings and trying to make some comparisons of new EU and recommendations for pre-accession countries, such as Croatia.

The factors affecting the international judgement of the Forint and Zloty in the light of the financial crisis of year 2008

The financial crisis of 2007-2009 has shaken both money and capital markets. Its consequences have not even left European markets untouched and divided spirits in the financial world. In some countries efforts by the monetary policy to protect the national currency throughout the crisis seemed to be ineffective. In the present paper we are investigating the effect of the most important macroeconomic and economic policy factors on the exchange rate of the forint and zloty in the last decade. For an analysis of exchange rates we are relying on some preceding research results based on equilibrium exchange rate theories.

Magyar alkalmazkodás az Európai Unió monetáris együttműködéséhez - tanulságok (Hungarian adaption to the monetary cooperation)

A cikk röviden összefoglalja az optimális valutaövezetek elméletének fejlődési állomásait, miközben felvet néhány kérdést a 2008-ban kezdődött válsággal kapcsolatban. Ezt követően áttekinti az elmélet és a válság által felvetett problémákra a gazdasági és monetáris unió által adott válaszokat. Végül az elmélet, az európai szabályozás aktuális állapota és a hazai tapasztalatok, lehetőségek tükrében megvizsgálja, hogy a jelenlegi helyzetben Magyarországnak milyen érdekei és ellenérdekei fűződhetnek az euró bevezetéséhez. Az írás kísérletet tesz arra, hogy kijelölje a hazai gazdaságpolitika kívánatos irányvonalát. _______ The article briefly summarizes the developments of the optimum currency area (OCA) theory, while states some questions regarding the crises starting in 2008. Secondly, it reviews the solutions given by the economic and monetary union to the problems raised by the OCA theory and the crisis. Thirdly, it evaluates the pros and cons for Hungary to introduce the euro as its own currency in the light of the OCA theory, the state of the European legislation and the Hungarian track record and possibilities. Finally, it shows the desired direction for the official Hungarian economic and financial policy.

Essays on international macroeconomics and conflict analysis

This dissertation addressed two broad problems in international macroeconomics and conflict analysis. The first problem in the first chapter looked at the behavior of exchange rate and its interaction with industry-level tradable goods prices for three countries, USA, UK and Japan. This question has important monetary policy implications. Here, I computed to what extent changes in exchange rate affected prices of consumer, producer, and export goods. I also studied the timing of these changes in these prices. My results, based on thirty-four industrial prices for USA, UK and Japan, supported the view that changes in exchange rates significantly affect prices of industrial and consumer goods. It also provided an insight to the underlying economic process that led to changes in relative prices. ^ In the second chapter, I explored the predictability of future inflation by incorporating shocks to exchange rates and clearly specified the transmission mechanisms that link exchange rates to industry-level consumer and producer prices. Employing a variety of linear and state-of-the-art nonlinear models, I also predicted growth rates of future prices. Comparing levels of inflation obtained from the above approaches showed superiority of the structural model incorporating the exchange rate pass-through effect. ^ The second broad issue addressed in the third chapter of the dissertation investigated the economic motives for conflict, manifested by rebellion and civil war for seventeen Latin American countries. Based on the analytical framework of Garfinkel, Skaperdas and Syropoulos (2004), I employed ordinal regressions and Markov switching for a panel of seventeen countries to identify trade and openness factors responsible for conflict occurrence and intensity. The results suggested that increased trade openness reduced high intensity domestic conflicts but overdependence on agricultural exports, along with a lack of income earning opportunities lead to more conflicts. Thereafter, using the Cox Proportional Hazard model I studied “conflict duration” and found that over-reliance on agricultural exports explained a major part of the length of conflicts in addition to various socio-political factors. ^