Evaluating the risk of non-point source pollution from biosolids: integrated modelling of nutrient losses at field and catchment scales

A semi-distributed model, INCA, has been developed to determine the fate and distribution of nutrients in terrestrial and aquatic systems. The model simulates nitrogen and phosphorus processes in soils, groundwaters and river systems and can be applied in a semi-distributed manner at a range of scales. In this study, the model has been applied at field to sub-catchment to whole catchment scale to evaluate the behaviour of biosolid-derived losses of P in agricultural systems. It is shown that process-based models such as INCA, applied at a wide range of scales, reproduce field and catchment behaviour satisfactorily. The INCA model can also be used to generate generic information for risk assessment. By adjusting three key variables: biosolid application rates, the hydrological connectivity of the catchment and the initial P-status of the soils within the model, a matrix of P loss rates can be generated to evaluate the behaviour of the model and, hence, of the catchment system. The results, which indicate the sensitivity of the catchment to flow paths, to application rates and to initial soil conditions, have been incorporated into a Nutrient Export Risk Matrix (NERM).

Official warnings on thromboembolism risk with oral contraceptives fail to inform users adequately

Following the 1995 “pill scare” relating to the risk of venous thrombosis from taking second- or third-generation oral contraceptives, the Committee on Safety of Medicines (CSM) withdrew their earlier recommended restrictions on the use of third-generation pills and published recommended wording to be used in patient information leaflets. However, the effectiveness of this wording has not been tested. An empirical study (with 186 pill users, past users, and non-users) was conducted to assess understanding, based on this wording, of the absolute and relative risk of thrombosis in pill users and in pregnancy. The results showed that less than 12% of women in the (higher education) group fully understood the absolute levels of risk from taking the pill and from being pregnant. Relative risk was also poorly understood, with less than 40% of participants showing full understanding, and 20% showing no understanding. We recommend that the CSM revisit the wording currently provided to millions of women in the UK.

Provision of information about drug side-effects to patients

To make informed decisions about taking medicinal drugs, people need accurate information about side-effects. A European Union guideline now recommends use of qualitative descriptions for five bands of risk, ranging from very rare (affecting < 0·01% of the population), to very common (>10%). We did four studies of more than 750 people, whom we asked to estimate the probability of having a side-effect on the basis of qualitative and quantitative descriptions. Our results showed that qualitative descriptions led to gross overestimation of risk. Until further work is done on how patients taking the drugs interpret these terms, the terms should not be used in drug information leaflets.

Coronary heart disease risk screening: the community pharmacy Healthy Heart Assessment Service

Objectives We examined the characteristics and CHD risks of people who accessed the free Healthy Heart Assessment (HHA) service operated by a large UK pharmacy chain from August 2004 to April 2006. Methods Associations between participants’ gender, age, and socioeconomics were explored in relation to calculated 10-year CHD risks by cross-tabulation of the data. Specific associations were tested by forming contingency tables and using Pearson chi-square (χ2). Results Data from 8,287 records were analysable; 5,377 were at low and 2,910 at moderate-to-high CHD risk. The likelihood of moderate-to-high risk for a male versus female participant was significantly higher with a relative risk ratio (RRR) 1.72 (P < 0.001). A higher percentage of those in socioeconomic categories ‘constrained by circumstances’ (RRR 1.15; P < 0.05) and ‘blue collar communities’ (RRR 1.13; P < 0.05) were assessed with moderate-to-high risk compared to those in ‘prospering suburbs’. Conclusions People from ‘hard-to-reach’ sectors of the population, men and people from less advantaged communities, accessed the HHA service and were more likely to return moderate-to-high CHD risk. Pharmacists prioritised provision of lifestyle information above the sale of a product. Our study supports the notion that pharmacies can serve as suitable environments for the delivery of similar screening services.

Very short delays prior to escape from potential predators may function efficiently as adaptive risk-assessment periods

Periods between predator detection and an escape response (escape delays) by prey upon attack by a predator often arise because animals trade-off the benefits such a delay gives for assessing risk accurately with the costs of not escaping as quickly as possible. We tested whether freezing behaviour (complete immobility in a previously foraging bird) observed in chaffinches before escaping from an approaching potential threat functions as a period of risk-assessment, and whether information on predator identity is gained even when time available is very short. We flew either a model of a sparrowhawk (predator) or a woodpigeon (no threat) at single chaffinches. Escape delays were significantly shorter with the hawk, except when a model first appeared close to the chaffinch. Chaffinches were significantly more vigilant when they resumed feeding after exposure to the sparrowhawk compared to the woodpigeon showing that they were able to distinguish between threats, and this applied even when time available for assessment was short (an average of 0.29 s). Our results show freezing in chaffinches functions as an effective economic risk assessment period, and that threat information is gained even when very short periods of time are available during an attack.

Categories of GM risk-benefit perceptions and their antecedents

The stated benefits and perceived risks of genetic modification (GM) cover very diverse issues, such as food safety, world food security, and the environment, that may differentially affect consumer acceptance. In this research, we hypothesize that consumers perceive up to eight dimensions: risks to business (farmers, agribusiness, etc.), benefits to business, risks and benefits to the environment, risks and benefits to the developing world, and risks and benefits to self and family. Moral concerns are also recognized. Using data collected in 2002 in the United States, France, and the UK, we investigate these different dimensions. Second, we analyze the extent to which the dimensions of risk-benefit perceptions can be explained by general attitudes widely used to explain food purchase behavior (such as general attitude to the environment, to technology, etc.), as well as by perceived knowledge of GM, level of education, and trust in various sources of information. In all locations, the majority of consumers only perceive a medium level of risk from GM products. Attitude to technology is the most important attitude variable—those with a positive attitude to technology in general also have a positive attitude to GM technology. More Americans than Europeans fall into this category. Those who trust government and the food industry tend to think GM technology is less risky, whereas those who trust activists believe the opposite. Americans are more trusting of the former, Europeans of the latter. Level of education is positively associated with benefit perceptions and negatively associated with moral concerns. Location continues to play a limited independent role in explaining perceptions even after these factors have been taken into account.

The failure of meta-analytic asymptotics for the seemingly efficient estimator of the common risk difference

We consider the case of a multicenter trial in which the center specific sample sizes are potentially small. Under homogeneity, the conventional procedure is to pool information using a weighted estimator where the weights used are inverse estimated center-specific variances. Whereas this procedure is efficient for conventional asymptotics (e. g. center-specific sample sizes become large, number of center fixed), it is commonly believed that the efficiency of this estimator holds true also for meta-analytic asymptotics (e.g. center-specific sample size bounded, potentially small, and number of centers large). In this contribution we demonstrate that this estimator fails to be efficient. In fact, it shows a persistent bias with increasing number of centers showing that it isnot meta-consistent. In addition, we show that the Cochran and Mantel-Haenszel weighted estimators are meta-consistent and, in more generality, provide conditions on the weights such that the associated weighted estimator is meta-consistent.

Gene flow, risk assessment and the environmental release of transgenic plants

The release of genetically modified plants is governed by regulations that aim to provide an assessment of potential impact on the environment. One of the most important components of this risk assessment is an evaluation of the probability of gene flow. In this review, we provide an overview of the current literature on gene flow from transgenic plants, providing a framework of issues for those considering the release of a transgenic plant into the environment. For some plants gene flow from transgenic crops is well documented, and this information is discussed in detail in this review. Mechanisms of gene flow vary from plant species to plant species and range from the possibility of asexual propagation, short- or long-distance pollen dispersal mediated by insects or wind and seed dispersal. Volunteer populations of transgenic plants may occur where seed is inadvertently spread during harvest or commercial distribution. If there are wild populations related to the transgenic crop then hybridization and eventually introgression in the wild may occur, as it has for herbicide resistant transgenic oilseed rape (Brassica napus). Tools to measure the amount of gene flow, experimental data measuring the distance of pollen dispersal, and experiments measuring hybridization and seed survivability are discussed in this review. The various methods that have been proposed to prevent gene flow from genetically modified plants are also described. The current "transgenic traits'! in the major crops confer resistance to herbicides and certain insects. Such traits could confer a selective advantage (an increase in fitness) in wild plant populations in some circumstances, were gene flow to occur. However, there is ample evidence that gene flow from crops to related wild species occurred before the development of transgenic crops and this should be taken into account in the risk assessment process.

Learning from risks: A tool for post-project risk assessment

Risk management (RM) comprises of risk identification, risk analysis, response planning, monitoring and action planning tasks that are carried out throughout the life cycle of a project in order to ensure that project objectives are met. Although the methodological aspects of RM are well-defined, the philosophical background is rather vague. In this paper, a learning-based approach is proposed. In order to implement this approach in practice, a tool has been developed to facilitate construction of a lessons learned database that contains risk-related information and risk assessment throughout the life cycle of a project. The tool is tested on a real construction project. The case study findings demonstrate that it can be used for storing as well as updating risk-related information and finally, carrying out a post-project appraisal. The major weaknesses of the tool are identified as, subjectivity of the risk rating process and unwillingness of people to enter information about reasons of failure.

The internet, information architecture and community memory

This article reviews current technological developments, particularly Peer-to-Peer technologies and Distributed Data Systems, and their value to community memory projects, particularly those concerned with the preservation of the cultural, literary and administrative data of cultures which have suffered genocide or are at risk of genocide. It draws attention to the comparatively good representation online of genocide denial groups and changes in the technological strategies of holocaust denial and other far-right groups. It draws on the author's work in providing IT support for a UK-based Non-Governmental Organization providing support for survivors of genocide in Rwanda.

ApoE genotype, cardiovascular risk and responsiveness to dietary fat manipulation

Cardiovascular risk is determined by the complex interactions between genetic and environmental factors. The apoE genotype represents the most-widely-studied single nucleotide polymorphism in relation to CVD risk, with >3600 publications cited in PubMed. Although originally described as a mediator of lipoprotein metabolism, the lipoprotein-independent functions of apoE are being increasingly recognised, with limited data available on the potential impact of genotype on these metabolic processes. Furthermore, although meta-analyses suggest that apoE4 carriers may have a 40-50% increased CVD risk, the associations reported in individual studies are highly heterogeneous and it is recognised that environmental factors such as smoking status and dietary fat composition influence genotype-phenotype associations. However, information is often derived from observational studies or small intervention trials in which retrospective genotyping of the cohort results in small group sizes in the rarer E2 and E4 subgroups. Either larger well-standardised intervention trials or smaller trials with prospective recruitment according to apoE genotype are needed to fully establish the impact of diet on genotype-CVD associations and to establish the potential of dietary strategies such as reduced total fat, saturated fat, or increased antioxidant intakes to counteract the increased CVD burden in apoE4 carriers.

Impact of apoE genotype on oxidative stress, inflammation and disease risk

Although in developing countries an apolipoprotein E4 (apoE4) genotype may offer an evolutionary advantage, as it has been shown to offer protection against certain infectious disease, in Westernised societies it is associated with increased morbidity and mortality, and represents a significant risk factor for cardiovascular disease, late-onset Alzheimer's disease and other chronic disorders. ApoE is an important modulator of many stages of lipoprotein metabolism and traditionally the increased risk was attributed to higher lipid levels in E4 carriers. However, more recent evidence demonstrates the multifunctional nature of the apoE protein and the fact that the impact of genotype on disease risk may be in large part due to an impact on oxidative status or the immunomodulatory/anti-inflammatory properties of apoE. An increasing number of studies in cell lines, targeted replacement rodents and human volunteers indicate higher oxidative stress and a more pro-inflammatory state associated with the F,4 allele. The impact of genotype on the antioxidant and immunomodulatory/anti-inflammatory properties of apoE is the focus of the current review. Furthermore, current information on the impact of environment (diet, exercise, smoking status, alcohol) on apoE genotype-phenotype associations are discussed with a view to identifying particular lifestyle strategies that could be adapted to counteract the 'at-risk' E4 genotype.

Effects of presenting the baseline risk when communicating absolute and relative risk reductions

This study compares relative and absolute forms of presenting risk information about influenza and the need for vaccination. It investigates whether differences in people's risk estimates and their evaluations of risk information, as a result of the different presentation formats, are still apparent when they are provided with information about the baseline level of risk. The results showed that, in the absence of baseline information, the relative risk format resulted in higher ratings of satisfaction, perceived effectiveness of vaccination, and likelihood of being vaccinated. However, these differences were not apparent when baseline information was presented. Overall, provision of baseline information resulted in more accurate risk estimates and more positive evaluations of the risk messages. It is recommended that, in order to facilitate shared and fully informed decision making, information about baseline level of risk should be included in all health communications specifying risk reductions, irrespective of the particular format adopted.

Processing of faces and emotional expressions in infants at risk of social phobia

Individuals with social phobia display social information processing biases yet their aetiological significance is unclear. Infants of mothers with social phobia and control infants' responses were assessed at 10 days, 10 and 16 weeks, and 10 months to faces versus non-faces, variations in intensity of emotional expressions, and gaze direction. Infant temperament and maternal behaviours were also assessed. Both groups showed a preference for faces over non-faces at 10 days and 10 weeks, and full faces over profiles at 16 weeks; they also looked more to high vs. low intensity angry faces at 10 weeks, and fearful faces at 10 months; however, index infants' initial orientation and overall looking to high-intensity fear faces was relatively less than controls at 10 weeks. This was not explained by infant temperament or maternal behaviours. The findings suggest that offspring of mothers with social phobia show processing biases to emotional expressions in infancy.