Correcting Measurement Error Bias in Interaction Models with Small Samples

Several methods have been suggested to estimate non-linear models with interaction terms in the presence of measurement error. Structural equation models eliminate measurement error bias, but require large samples. Ordinary least squares regression on summated scales, regression on factor scores and partial least squares are appropriate for small samples but do not correct measurement error bias. Two stage least squares regression does correct measurement error bias but the results strongly depend on the instrumental variable choice. This article discusses the old disattenuated regression method as an alternative for correcting measurement error in small samples. The method is extended to the case of interaction terms and is illustrated on a model that examines the interaction effect of innovation and style of use of budgets on business performance. Alternative reliability estimates that can be used to disattenuate the estimates are discussed. A comparison is made with the alternative methods. Methods that do not correct for measurement error bias perform very similarly and considerably worse than disattenuated regression

Training and pre-decisional bias in a multiattribute decision task. 'Formaci??n y sesgo pre-decisional en una tarea de decisi??n multiatributiva'

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Fault diagnosis by refining the parameter uncertainty space of nonlinear dynamic systems

This paper deals with fault detection and isolation problems for nonlinear dynamic systems. Both problems are stated as constraint satisfaction problems (CSP) and solved using consistency techniques. The main contribution is the isolation method based on consistency techniques and uncertainty space refining of interval parameters. The major advantage of this method is that the isolation speed is fast even taking into account uncertainty in parameters, measurements, and model errors. Interval calculations bring independence from the assumption of monotony considered by several approaches for fault isolation which are based on observers. An application to a well known alcoholic fermentation process model is presented

Bias in the Social Web

Abstract A frequent assumption in Social Media is that its open nature leads to a representative view of the world. In this talk we want to consider bias occurring in the Social Web. We will consider a case study of liquid feedback, a direct democracy platform of the German pirate party as well as models of (non-)discriminating systems. As a conclusion of this talk we stipulate the need of Social Media systems to bias their working according to social norms and to publish the bias they introduce. Speaker Biography: Prof Steffen Staab Steffen studied in Erlangen (Germany), Philadelphia (USA) and Freiburg (Germany) computer science and computational linguistics. Afterwards he worked as researcher at Uni. Stuttgart/Fraunhofer and Univ. Karlsruhe, before he became professor in Koblenz (Germany). Since March 2015 he also holds a chair for Web and Computer Science at Univ. of Southampton sharing his time between here and Koblenz. In his research career he has managed to avoid almost all good advice that he now gives to his team members. Such advise includes focusing on research (vs. company) or concentrating on only one or two research areas (vs. considering ontologies, semantic web, social web, data engineering, text mining, peer-to-peer, multimedia, HCI, services, software modelling and programming and some more). Though, actually, improving how we understand and use text and data is a good common denominator for a lot of Steffen's professional activities.

Corticosteroides vs dosis bajas de adrenocorticotropina en el tratamiento de espasmos infantiles. Revisión sistemática de la literatura

Antecedentes: El tratamiento de los espasmos infantiles generalmente se realiza con ACTH a pesar de perfil de efectos secundarios y el alto costo financiero. Se ha propuesto el uso de los corticoides como primera línea de tratamiento para la enfermedad, no obstante no existe certeza sobre la eficacia de este esquema. Objetivos: Evaluar la eficacia del uso de los corticoides comparados con la ACTH como primera línea de tratamiento en el manejo de pacientes con espasmos infantiles. Metodología: Se realizó una revisión sistemática de la literatura. La búsqueda se efectuó en las bases de datos Pubmed, Embase, Ovid, LiLaCs y en el registro de ensayos clínicos de Estados Unidos. Se incluyeron estudios en portugués, ingles y español, no se fijo límite de tiempo para la publicación. Se realizó un análisis de riesgo de sesgo y de calidad de la evidencia utilizando el programa GRADEPRO. Se estimaron OR y sus respectivos intervalos de confianza al 95%. Resultados: Se incluyeron 4 estudios, un ensayo clínico y tres estudios de cohorte retrospectiva. Dos estudios aportaron evidencia de calidad moderada y alta. No se encontraron diferencias en la eficacia a corto plazo entre el uso de los corticoides y la ACTH sobre desenlaces clínicos o electroencefalográficos. No se encontraron estudios de seguridad a largo plazo. La seguridad a corto plazo no mostró diferencias. Conclusiones: Es muy probable que el uso de los corticoides como primera línea de tratamiento puedan reemplazar el uso de la ACTH, se requiere estudios de seguridad a largo plazo. La decisión de su uso rutinario debería estar basada en un análisis de costo efectividad y bajo la mirada del balance riesgo/beneficio.

Media bias and central bank response. Evidence from the nominal exchange rate behavior in Colombia

Since 1991 Colombia has had a market-determined Peso - US Dollar Nominal Exchange Rate (NER), after more than 20 years of controlled and multiple exchange rates. The behavior (revaluation / devaluation) of the NER is constantly reported in news, editorials and op-eds of major newspapers of the nation with particular attention to revaluation. The uneven reporting of revaluation episodes can be explained by the existence of an interest group particulary affected by revaluation, looking to increase awareness and sympathy for help from public institutions. Using the number of news and op-eds from a major Colombian newspaper, it is shown that there is an over-reporting of revaluation episodes in contrast to devaluation ones. Secondly, using text analysis upon the content of the news, it is also shown that the words devaluation and revaluation are far apart in the distribution of words within the news; and revaluation is highly correlated with words related to: public institutions, exporters and the need of assistance. Finally it is also shown that the probability of the central bank buying US dollars to lessen revaluation effects increases with the number of news; even though the central bank allegedly intervenes in the exchange rate market only to tame volatility or accumulate international reserves.

Reporting verbs and bias in the press. 'Los verbos informativos y la parcialidad en la prensa'.

Se describe la forma en que la prensa demuestra sutilmente las preferencias de los periodistas. Dependiendo de la fuente de las palabras, los periodistas emplean verbos diferentes, guiando así a los lectores para que adopten posiciones en pro o en contra de esa fuente. El artículo emplea un corpus de la prensa británica para mostrar el perfil de las fuentes favorecidas por el uso de los verbos.

Aprendizaje incidental de pares asociados de palabras en función de la emotividad y de la viveza de imagen.

Estudiar ciertos aspectos concretos sobre la capacidad de memorizar algunas imágenes mentales. 154 alumnos (92 mujeres y 62 varones) de primero de BUP. del instituto 'Ramón Otero Pedrayo' de Orense. Estudio acerca de la emotividad positiva, negativa y neutra de las palabras castellanas en el recuerdo de pares asociados, según el sexo y la viveza de la imagen de los sujetos y según el tiempo transcurrido desde el momento del aprendizaje al de recuerdo. Variables independientes: 1)memoria; 2) sexo; 3) viveza de la imagen; 4) tiempo transcurrido para el recuerdo; 5) edad; 6) nivel de escolarización; 7) nivel de concreción-abstracción de las palabras. Variable dependiente: número de palabras recordadas. Los instrumentos utilizados para la recogida de datos han sido dos: para medir la viveza de imagen de los sujetos fue seleccionado el Cuestionario de viveza de Imágenes Visuales de Marks (VVIQ) y para medir el número de palabras recordadas por los sujetos tras los diversos intervalos de tiempo se confeccionó una lista de 60 palabras con distinta emotividad. 1) Existen diferencias significativas entre el número de palabras neutras y emotivas que pueden recordar los sujetos. Éstos recordaron un mayor número de palabras neutras, pero esto independiente de que el recuerdo se produjera a corto o largo plazo. 2) No existe aún claridad sobre el hecho de si las imágenes son algo funcional (como puede serlo la memoria) o si son puramente elementos materiales que utiliza nuestra mente como herramientas en las que apoyarse para funcionar. 3) Existen diferencias significativas entre el número de palabras que recuerdan los varones y las mujeres. Se ha comprobado que las mujeres recuerdan un número significativamente mayor de palabras, en contra de lo que las escasas investigaciones realizadas sobre el recuerdo de imágenes verbales aparecían apuntar. 4) La consecuencia más importante de la investigación sobre las imágenes y los procesos verbales está en relación a los problemas de la educación. desde esta perspectiva educativa, el mayor interés se centra en la aplicación de estos conocimientos para la mejora del proceso educativo. 5) Teniendo en cuenta que evolutivamente las imágenes visuales preceden a las verbales y también que el material verbal (concreto o abstracto) está precedido por el visual, la actividad docente con los niños más pequeños deberá centrarse principalmente en información de tipo visual, de igual manera que el aprendizaje de significados y formas verbales deberá estar precedido, o al menos apoyado, por material de tipo visual. 6) El conocer que el lenguaje con carga emotiva es más fácilmente recordado que el lenguaje neutro, deberá condicionar el tipo de vocabulario utilizado por el docente y el que se debe emplear en la redacción de libros de texto y otro material didáctico escrito.

The effects of ageing on self-reported aggression measures are partly explained by response bias

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Avian mortalities due to transmission line collisions: a review of current estimates and field methods with an emphasis on applications to the Canadian electric network

Birds are vulnerable to collisions with human-made fixed structures. Despite ongoing development and increases in infrastructure, we have few estimates of the magnitude of collision mortality. We reviewed the existing literature on avian mortality associated with transmission lines and derived an initial estimate for Canada. Estimating mortality from collisions with power lines is challenging due to the lack of studies, especially from sites within Canada, and due to uncertainty about the magnitude of detection biases. Detection of bird collisions with transmission lines varies due to habitat type, species size, and scavenging rates. In addition, birds can be crippled by the impact and subsequently die, although crippling rates are poorly known and rarely incorporated into estimates. We used existing data to derive a range of estimates of avian mortality associated with collisions with transmission lines in Canada by incorporating detection, scavenging, and crippling biases. There are 231,966 km of transmission lines across Canada, mostly in the boreal forest. Mortality estimates ranged from 1 million to 229.5 million birds per year, depending on the bias corrections applied. We consider our most realistic estimate, taking into account variation in risk across Canada, to range from 2.5 million to 25.6 million birds killed per year. Data from multiple studies across Canada and the northern U.S. indicate that the most vulnerable bird groups are (1) waterfowl, (2) grebes, (3) shorebirds, and (4) cranes, which is consistent with other studies. Populations of several groups that are vulnerable to collisions are increasing across Canada (e.g., waterfowl, raptors), which suggests that collision mortality, at current levels, is not limiting population growth. However, there may be impacts on other declining species, such as shorebirds and some species at risk, including Alberta’s Trumpeter Swans (Cygnus buccinator) and western Canada’s endangered Whooping Cranes (Grus americana). Collisions may be more common during migration, which underscores the need to understand impacts across the annual cycle. We emphasize that these estimates are preliminary, especially considering the absence of Canadian studies.

Statistical inference of OH concentrations and air mass dilution rates from successive observations of non-methane hydrocarbons in single air masses

Bayesian inference has been used to determine rigorous estimates of hydroxyl radical concentrations () and air mass dilution rates (K) averaged following air masses between linked observations of nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) spanning the North Atlantic during the Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation (ITCT)-Lagrangian-2K4 experiment. The Bayesian technique obtains a refined (posterior) distribution of a parameter given data related to the parameter through a model and prior beliefs about the parameter distribution. Here, the model describes hydrocarbon loss through OH reaction and mixing with a background concentration at rate K. The Lagrangian experiment provides direct observations of hydrocarbons at two time points, removing assumptions regarding composition or sources upstream of a single observation. The estimates are sharpened by using many hydrocarbons with different reactivities and accounting for their variability and measurement uncertainty. A novel technique is used to construct prior background distributions of many species, described by variation of a single parameter . This exploits the high correlation of species, related by the first principal component of many NMHC samples. The Bayesian method obtains posterior estimates of , K and following each air mass. Median values are typically between 0.5 and 2.0 × 106 molecules cm−3, but are elevated to between 2.5 and 3.5 × 106 molecules cm−3, in low-level pollution. A comparison of estimates from absolute NMHC concentrations and NMHC ratios assuming zero background (the “photochemical clock” method) shows similar distributions but reveals systematic high bias in the estimates from ratios. Estimates of K are ∼0.1 day−1 but show more sensitivity to the prior distribution assumed.