Influence of Increased Human Presence in the Mills River Basin on Water Availability and Drought

Periods of drought and low streamflow can have profound impacts on both human and natural systems. People depend on a reliable source of water for numerous reasons including potable water supply and to produce economic value through agriculture or energy production. Aquatic ecosystems depend on water in addition to the economic benefits they provide to society through ecosystem services. Given that periods of low streamflow may become more extreme and frequent in the future, it is important to study the factors that control water availability during these times. In the absence of precipitation the slower hydrological response of groundwater systems will play an amplified role in water supply. Understanding the variability of the fraction of streamflow contribution from baseflow or groundwater during periods of drought provides insight into what future water availability may look like and how it can best be managed. The Mills River Basin in North Carolina is chosen as a case-study to test this understanding. First, obtaining a physically meaningful estimation of baseflow from USGS streamflow data via computerized hydrograph analysis techniques is carried out. Then applying a method of time series analysis including wavelet analysis can highlight signals of non-stationarity and evaluate the changes in variance required to better understand the natural variability of baseflow and low flows. In addition to natural variability, human influence must be taken into account in order to accurately assess how the combined system reacts to periods of low flow. Defining a combined demand that consists of both natural and human demand allows us to be more rigorous in assessing the level of sustainable use of a shared resource, in this case water. The analysis of baseflow variability can differ based on regional location and local hydrogeology, but it was found that baseflow varies from multiyear scales such as those associated with ENSO (3.5, 7 years) up to multi decadal time scales, but with most of the contributing variance coming from decadal or multiyear scales. It was also found that the behavior of baseflow and subsequently water availability depends a great deal on overall precipitation, the tracks of hurricanes or tropical storms and associated climate indices, as well as physiography and hydrogeology. Evaluating and utilizing the Duke Combined Hydrology Model (DCHM), reasonably accurate estimates of streamflow during periods of low flow were obtained in part due to the model’s ability to capture subsurface processes. Being able to accurately simulate streamflow levels and subsurface interactions during periods of drought can be very valuable to water suppliers, decision makers, and ultimately impact citizens. Knowledge of future droughts and periods of low flow in addition to tracking customer demand will allow for better management practices on the part of water suppliers such as knowing when they should withdraw more water during a surplus so that the level of stress on the system is minimized when there is not ample water supply.

(Table 1) Boron concentration and d11B values of interstitial water from IODP Holes 308-U1319A, U1320A, U1322B and U1324B

The Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 308 (IODP308) drilled normal-pressured sediments from the Brazos-Trinity Basin IV and over-pressured sediments from the Ursa Basin on the northern slope of the Gulf of Mexico. The interstitial water samples from the normal-pressured basin show B concentrations and B isotopic compositions ranging from 255 to 631 µM (0.6 to 1.5 times of seawater value) and from +29.1 to +42.7 per mil (relative to NIST SRM 951), respectively. A wider range is observed both for B concentrations (292 to 865 µM, 0.7 to 2.1 times of seawater value) and d11B values (+25.5 to +43.2 per mil) of the interstitial water in the over-pressured basin. The down-core distribution of B concentrations and d11B values in the interstitial waters are sensitive tracers for assessing various processes occurring in the sediment column, including boron adsorption/desorption reactions involving clay minerals and organic matter in sediments as well as fluid migration and mixing in certain horizons and in the sediment column. In the normal-pressured basin adsorption/desorption reactions in shallow sediments play the major role in controlling the B content and B isotopic composition of the interstitial water. In contrast, multiple processes affect the B content and d11B of the interstitial water in the over-pressured Ursa Basin. There, the stratigraphic level of the maxima of B and d11B correspond to seismic reflectors. The intruded fluids along the seismic reflector boundary from high to low-topography mix with local interstitial water. Fluid flow is inferred in the Blue Unit (a coarse sandstone layer, connecting the high- to low-pressured region) from the freshening of interstitial water in Ursa Basin Site U1322, and upward flow by the overpressure expels fluid from the overburden above the Blue Unit.

(Table S2) Relative abundance of archaeal 16S rRNA genes in sediment cores

Deep drilling into the marine sea floor has uncovered a vast sedimentary ecosystem of microbial cells (Parkes et al., 1994, doi:10.1038/371410a0; D'Hondt et al., 2004, doi:10.1126/science.1101155). Extrapolation of direct counts of stained microbial cells to the total volume of habitable marine subsurface sediments suggests that between 56 Pg (Parkes et al., 1994, doi:10.1038/371410a0) and 303 Pg (Whitman et al., 1998) of cellular carbon could be stored in this largely unexplored habitat. From recent studies using various culture-independent techniques, no clear picture has yet emerged as to whether Archaea or Bacteria are more abundant in this extensive ecosystem (Schippers et al., doi:10.1038/nature03302; Inagaki et al., doi:10.1073/pnas.0511033103 ; Mauclaire et al., doi:10.1111/j.1472-4677.2004.00035.x; Biddle et al., doi:10.1073/pnas.0600035103). Here we show that in subsurface sediments buried deeper than 1 m in a wide range of oceanographic settings at least 87% of intact polar membrane lipids, biomarkers for the presence of live cells (Biddle et al., doi:10.1073/pnas.0600035103; Sturt et al., 2004, doi:10.1002/rcm.1378), are attributable to archaeal membranes, suggesting that Archaea constitute a major fraction of the biomass. Results obtained from modified quantitative polymerase chain reaction and slot-blot hybridization protocols support the lipid-based evidence and indicate that these techniques have previously underestimated archaeal biomass. The lipid concentrations are proportional to those of total organic carbon. On the basis of this relationship, we derived an independent estimate of amounts of cellular carbon in the global marine subsurface biosphere. Our estimate of 90 Pg of cellular carbon is consistent, within an order of magnitude, with previous estimates, and underscores the importance of marine subsurface habitats for global biomass budgets.

ROCK OUTCROPS IN THE CANADIAN SHIELD: AN INVESTIGATION OF CONTAMINANT TRANSPORT FROM SURFACE SOURCES IN FRACTURED ROCK AQUIFERS

Flow, recharge and transport dynamics in fractured rock aquifers with low lying rock outcrops is a largely unexplored area of study in hydrogeology. The purpose of this thesis is to examine these topics in an agricultural area in Eastern Ontario. The study consists of a regional scale groundwater quality study, an infiltration experiment that considers bacteria transport from the ground surface to a well, and a numerical modelling study that tests the parameters that affect surface infiltration of a tracer from a rock outcrop to a deeper horizontal fracture. In the water quality study, approximately 65% of the samples contained total coliform, 16% contained E. coli, and 1% contained nitrate-N at greater than 5 mg/L. Occurrence of E. coli increased when considering seasonality, where wells were drilled on rock outcrops, and for shallow well intervals. Nitrate-N did not occur above the Guidelines for Canadian Drinking Water Quality (Health Canada, 2012) of 10 mg/L. Rapid arrival times were observed in the infiltration study for both the microspheres (30 minutes) and a dye tracer (45 minutes) in a well approximately 6.0 m in horizontal and 2.8 m in vertical distance from the tracer source. Transport velocities were approximately 38.9 m/day for the dye tracer and 115.2 m/day for the colloidal tracer. Results of the model runs indicate that overburden can provide an effective protective layer to transport in fractures, that high groundwater velocities occur in larger fracture apertures and higher gradients dilute tracer concentrations, and that lower groundwater velocities occur with smaller fracture apertures and lower gradients result in elevated tracer concentrations. Lower rainfall rates, larger fracture apertures, early tracer time, larger gradients, and lower water levels maintained unsaturated conditions for longer time periods such that tracer transport was delayed until saturated conditions were attained. The overall heterogeneity of this aquifer environment creates a source water protection conundrum where the water quality is generally good, while transport can occur very quickly in proximity to rock outcrops and in areas with limited overburden.

Multiphase flow in porous media: meta-modeling techniques for sensitivity analysis and risk assessment

One of the biggest challenges that contaminant hydrogeology is facing, is how to adequately address the uncertainty associated with model predictions. Uncertainty arise from multiple sources, such as: interpretative error, calibration accuracy, parameter sensitivity and variability. This critical issue needs to be properly addressed in order to support environmental decision-making processes. In this study, we perform Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) on a contaminant transport model for the assessment of hydrocarbon concentration in groundwater. We provide a quantification of the environmental impact and, given the incomplete knowledge of hydrogeological parameters, we evaluate which are the most influential, requiring greater accuracy in the calibration process. Parameters are treated as random variables and a variance-based GSA is performed in a optimized numerical Monte Carlo framework. The Sobol indices are adopted as sensitivity measures and they are computed by employing meta-models to characterize the migration process, while reducing the computational cost of the analysis. The proposed methodology allows us to: extend the number of Monte Carlo iterations, identify the influence of uncertain parameters and lead to considerable saving computational time obtaining an acceptable accuracy.

Geologie und Hydrogeologie im Raum Bad Pyrmont unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des Quellensystems

The hydrodynamics and hydrochemistry of salt and fresh water from solid rock aquifer systems in the Pyrmont area are described and interpreted on the basis of recent investigations including geoelectrics, isotope hydrology, soil air analysis. Theories on the source of the springs in this area are developed, which explain the different compositions of the springs and make it possible to protect them. Data from new and re-interpretated drill holes, borehole logs and outcrops suggest a revision of the geological structure of the Pyrmont dome. Bad Pyrmont is situated on a wide dome of Triassic rocks in the southern part of the Lower Saxony uplands. Inversion of the relief has caused the development of an erosional basin surrounded by prominent ridges. Deep faults developed at the crest of the dome as this part of the structure was subjected to the strongest tectonic stress. Subrosion of the Zechstein salts in the western part of the dome has caused the main salt bed to wedge out below the western part of the dome along a N-S striking structure; this structure is refered to as the „Salzhang“ (salt slope). West of the „Salzhang“, where subrosion has removed the salt bed that prevents gas rising from below, carbon dioxide of deep volcanic origin can now rise to the surface. Hydraulic cross sections illustrate the presence of extensive and deep-seated groundwater flow within the entire Pyrmont dome. While groundwater flow is directed vertically downwards in the ridges surrounding the dome, centripetal horizontal flow predominates the intermediate area. In the central part of the dome, groundwater rises to join the River Emmer, which is the main receiving water course in the central part of the eroded basin. The depth of the saltwater/freshwater interface is determinated by the weight of the superimposed freshwater body. Hydrochemical cross sections show the shape and position of the interface and document a certain degree of hydrochemical zonation of the gently mineralized fresh water. Genetic relationships between the two main water types and the hydrochemical zones of the freshwater body are discussed. The knowledge of the hydrogeological relationship in the Bad Pyrmont aquifer systems permits a spatially narrow coexistence of wells withdrawing groundwater for different purposes (medicinal, mineral, drinking and industrial water).

Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Stochastic methods based on time-series modeling combined with geostatistics can be useful tools to describe the variability of water-table levels in time and space and to account for uncertainty. Monitoring water-level networks can give information about the dynamic of the aquifer domain in both dimensions. Time-series modeling is an elegant way to treat monitoring data without the complexity of physical mechanistic models. Time-series model predictions can be interpolated spatially, with the spatial differences in water-table dynamics determined by the spatial variation in the system properties and the temporal variation driven by the dynamics of the inputs into the system. An integration of stochastic methods is presented, based on time-series modeling and geostatistics as a framework to predict water levels for decision making in groundwater management and land-use planning. The methodology is applied in a case study in a Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) outcrop area located in the southeastern part of Brazil. Communication of results in a clear and understandable form, via simulated scenarios, is discussed as an alternative, when translating scientific knowledge into applications of stochastic hydrogeology in large aquifers with limited monitoring network coverage like the GAS.

Transfer function-noise modeling and spatial interpolation to evaluate the risk of extreme (shallow) water-table levels in the Brazilian Cerrados

Water regimes in the Brazilian Cerrados are sensitive to climatological disturbances and human intervention. The risk that critical water-table levels are exceeded over long periods of time can be estimated by applying stochastic methods in modeling the dynamic relationship between water levels and driving forces such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. In this study, a transfer function-noise model, the so called PIRFICT-model, is applied to estimate the dynamic relationship between water-table depth and precipitation surplus/deficit in a watershed with a groundwater monitoring scheme in the Brazilian Cerrados. Critical limits were defined for a period in the Cerrados agricultural calendar, the end of the rainy season, when extremely shallow levels (< 0.5-m depth) can pose a risk to plant health and machinery before harvesting. By simulating time-series models, the risk of exceeding critical thresholds during a continuous period of time (e.g. 10 days) is described by probability levels. These simulated probabilities were interpolated spatially using universal kriging, incorporating information related to the drainage basin from a digital elevation model. The resulting map reduced model uncertainty. Three areas were defined as presenting potential risk at the end of the rainy season. These areas deserve attention with respect to water-management and land-use planning.

A Hydrogeologic Evaluation of the Waterloo Area in the Upper Jefferson River Valley, Montana

The Upper Jefferson River is one of the most dewatered rivers in Montana. The river exists in an intermontane basin filled with sediment transported from the Highland Mountains to the west, the Tobacco Root Mountains to the east, and the Jefferson River from the south. The Upper Jefferson River Valley is highly dependent on the Jefferson River as the main industry in the valley is agriculture. A majority of the valley is irrigated and used to grow crops, and a good portion is also used for cattle grazing. The residents of the Upper Jefferson River Valley use the aquifer as the main source of potable water. The Jefferson River is also widely used for recreation. This study took place in the Waterloo area of the Upper Jefferson River Valley, approximately 20 miles south of Whitehall, Montana. The Waterloo area provides significant groundwater base flow to the Jefferson River, which is particularly important during the late irrigation season when the river is severely dewatered, and elevated surface-water temperatures occur, creating irrigation water shortages and poor trout habitat. This area contains two springfed streams, Willow Springs and Parson’s Slough, which discharge to the Jefferson River providing cool water in the late season as well as providing the most important trout spawning habitat in the valley. The area is bordered on both the east and west by irrigation ditches, and about 60% of the study area is irrigated. Tile drains were installed in the study area in close proximity to Parsons Slough causing some concern by neighboring residents. This study evaluated relationships between surface water, groundwater, and irrigation practices so that water managers and others can make informed management decisions about the Upper Jefferson River. Data was collected via a network of groundwater wells and surface-water sites. Additionally, water-quality samples were taken and an aquifer test was conducted to determine aquifer properties. The field data were analyzed and a groundwater budget was created in order to evaluate the aquifer. Results of the groundwater budget show that seepage from the irrigation canals and irrigation recharge have the biggest influence on recharge of the aquifer. There is significant groundwater outflow from the aquifer in the spring-fed streams as well as discharge to the Jefferson River. In comparing previous study results to this study’s results, there is no evidence of the water table decreasing due to irrigation practice changes or tile drain installation. However, given the amount of recharge irrigation practices contribute to the aquifer, if significant changes were made, they may affect groundwater elevations. Also lining the irrigation ditches would have a significant impact on the aquifer, as the amount of seepage would be greatly reduced.

Analyzing Tidal Fluctuations in the Big Pine Key Freshwater Lens with Time-Lapse Resistivity

The tidal influence on the Big Pine Key saltwater/freshwater interface was analyzed using time-lapse electrical resistivity imaging and shallow well measurements. The transition zone at the saltwater/freshwater interface was measured over part of a tidal cycle along three profiles. The resistivity was converted to salinity by deriving a formation factor for the Miami Oolite. A SEAWAT model was created to attempt to recreate the field measurements and test previously established hydrogeologic parameters. The results imply that the tide only affects the groundwater within 20 to 30 m of the coast. The effect is small and caused by flooding from the high tide. The low relief of the island means this effect is very sensitive to small changes in the magnitude. The SEAWAT model proved to be insufficient in modeling this effect. The study suggests that the extent of flooding is the largest influence on the salinity of the groundwater.