Photovoltaic power forecast modeling with artificial neural networks

Dissertação de Mestrado, Engenharia Eletrónica e Telecomunicações, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2016

Removal of paracetamol on biomass-derived activated carbon: Modeling the fixed bed breakthrough curves using batch adsorption experiments

The remediation of paracetamol (PA), an emerging contaminant frequently found in wastewater treatment plants, has been studied in the low concentration range (0.3–10 mg L−1) using as adsorbent a biomass-derived activated carbon. PA uptake of up to 100 mg g−1 over the activated carbon has been obtained, with the adsorption isotherms being fairly explained by the Langmuir model. The application of Reichemberg and the Vermeulen equations to the batch kinetics experiments allowed estimating homogeneous and heterogeneous diffusion coefficients, reflecting the dependence of diffusion with the surface coverage of PA. A series of rapid small-scale column tests were carried out to determine the breakthrough curves under different operational conditions (temperature, PA concentration, flow rate, bed length). The suitability of the proposed adsorbent for the remediation of PA in fixed-bed adsorption was proven by the high PA adsorption capacity along with the fast adsorption and the reduced height of the mass transfer zone of the columns. We have demonstrated that, thanks to the use of the heterogeneous diffusion coefficient, the proposed mathematical approach for the numerical solution to the mass balance of the column provides a reliable description of the breakthrough profiles and the design parameters, being much more accurate than models based in the classical linear driving force.

Predição não-linear de curvas de produção de petróleo via redes neurais recursivas

One of the main activities in the petroleum engineering is to estimate the oil production in the existing oil reserves. The calculation of these reserves is crucial to determine the economical feasibility of your explotation. Currently, the petroleum industry is facing problems to analyze production due to the exponentially increasing amount of data provided by the production facilities. Conventional reservoir modeling techniques like numerical reservoir simulation and visualization were well developed and are available. This work proposes intelligent methods, like artificial neural networks, to predict the oil production and compare the results with the ones obtained by the numerical simulation, method quite a lot used in the practice to realization of the oil production prediction behavior. The artificial neural networks will be used due your learning, adaptation and interpolation capabilities

Modeling and analysis of thermoelectric energy conversion efficiency in nanostructures.

116 p.

SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AS A QUANTITATIVE-QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: INSIGHTS FOR WATER QUALITY POLICY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for "big-picture" understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan's eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system's problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake's recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan's TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement.

MODELING OF TRANSFER PATH FOR DETERMINATION OF COMBUSTION AND NOISE METRICS ON DIESEL ENGINES

Determination of combustion metrics for a diesel engine has the potential of providing feedback for closed-loop combustion phasing control to meet current and upcoming emission and fuel consumption regulations. This thesis focused on the estimation of combustion metrics including start of combustion (SOC), crank angle location of 50% cumulative heat release (CA50), peak pressure crank angle location (PPCL), and peak pressure amplitude (PPA), peak apparent heat release rate crank angle location (PACL), mean absolute pressure error (MAPE), and peak apparent heat release rate amplitude (PAA). In-cylinder pressure has been used in the laboratory as the primary mechanism for characterization of combustion rates and more recently in-cylinder pressure has been used in series production vehicles for feedback control. However, the intrusive measurement with the in-cylinder pressure sensor is expensive and requires special mounting process and engine structure modification. As an alternative method, this work investigated block mounted accelerometers to estimate combustion metrics in a 9L I6 diesel engine. So the transfer path between the accelerometer signal and the in-cylinder pressure signal needs to be modeled. Depending on the transfer path, the in-cylinder pressure signal and the combustion metrics can be accurately estimated - recovered from accelerometer signals. The method and applicability for determining the transfer path is critical in utilizing an accelerometer(s) for feedback. Single-input single-output (SISO) frequency response function (FRF) is the most common transfer path model; however, it is shown here to have low robustness for varying engine operating conditions. This thesis examines mechanisms to improve the robustness of FRF for combustion metrics estimation. First, an adaptation process based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm was developed and added to the single-input single-output model. Second, a multiple-input single-output (MISO) FRF model coupled with principal component analysis and an offset compensation process was investigated and applied. Improvement of the FRF robustness was achieved based on these two approaches. Furthermore a neural network as a nonlinear model of the transfer path between the accelerometer signal and the apparent heat release rate was also investigated. Transfer path between the acoustical emissions and the in-cylinder pressure signal was also investigated in this dissertation on a high pressure common rail (HPCR) 1.9L TDI diesel engine. The acoustical emissions are an important factor in the powertrain development process. In this part of the research a transfer path was developed between the two and then used to predict the engine noise level with the measured in-cylinder pressure as the input. Three methods for transfer path modeling were applied and the method based on the cepstral smoothing technique led to the most accurate results with averaged estimation errors of 2 dBA and a root mean square error of 1.5dBA. Finally, a linear model for engine noise level estimation was proposed with the in-cylinder pressure signal and the engine speed as components.

VALIDATION OF A 'DISPLACEMENT TOMOGRAPHY' INVERSION METHOD FOR MODELING SHEET INTRUSIONS

The study of volcano deformation data can provide information on magma processes and help assess the potential for future eruptions. In employing inverse deformation modeling on these data, we attempt to characterize the geometry, location and volume/pressure change of a deformation source. Techniques currently used to model sheet intrusions (e.g., dikes and sills) often require significant a priori assumptions about source geometry and can require testing a large number of parameters. Moreover, surface deformations are a non-linear function of the source geometry and location. This requires the use of Monte Carlo inversion techniques which leads to long computation times. Recently, ‘displacement tomography’ models have been used to characterize magma reservoirs by inverting source deformation data for volume changes using a grid of point sources in the subsurface. The computations involved in these models are less intensive as no assumptions are made on the source geometry and location, and the relationship between the point sources and the surface deformation is linear. In this project, seeking a less computationally intensive technique for fracture sources, we tested if this displacement tomography method for reservoirs could be used for sheet intrusions. We began by simulating the opening of three synthetic dikes of known geometry and location using an established deformation model for fracture sources. We then sought to reproduce the displacements and volume changes undergone by the fractures using the sources employed in the tomography methodology. Results of this validation indicate the volumetric point sources are not appropriate for locating fracture sources, however they may provide useful qualitative information on volume changes occurring in the surrounding rock, and therefore indirectly indicate the source location.

Modeling, control and field tests on an experimental irrigation canal

Irrigation canals are complex hydraulic systems difficult to control. Many models and control strategies have already been developed using linear control theory. In the present study, a PI controller is developed and implemented in a brand new prototype canal and its features evaluated experimentally. The base model relies on the linearized Saint-Venant equations which is compared with a reservoir model to check its accuracy. This technique will prove its capability and versatility in tuning properly a controller for this kind of systems.

Modeling and optimization techniques for advanced vehicular networking

This thesis deals with optimization techniques and modeling of vehicular networks. Thanks to the models realized with the integer linear programming (ILP) and the heuristic ones, it was possible to study the performances in 5G networks for the vehicular. Thanks to Software-defined networking (SDN) and Network functions virtualization (NFV) paradigms it was possible to study the performances of different classes of service, such as the Ultra Reliable Low Latency Communications (URLLC) class and enhanced Mobile BroadBand (eMBB) class, and how the functional split can have positive effects on network resource management. Two different protection techniques have been studied: Shared Path Protection (SPP) and Dedicated Path Protection (DPP). Thanks to these different protections, it is possible to achieve different network reliability requirements, according to the needs of the end user. Finally, thanks to a simulator developed in Python, it was possible to study the dynamic allocation of resources in a 5G metro network. Through different provisioning algorithms and different dynamic resource management techniques, useful results have been obtained for understanding the needs in the vehicular networks that will exploit 5G. Finally, two models are shown for reconfiguring backup resources when using shared resource protection.

Linear and nonlinear thermal instability of Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluid saturated porous media

The present work aims to investigate the influence of different aspects, such as non-standard steady solutions, complex fluid rheologies and non-standard porous-channel geometries, on the stability of a Darcy-Bénard system. In order to do so, both linear and nonlinear stability theories are considered. A linear analysis focuses on studying the dynamics of the single disturbance wave present in the system, while its nonlinear counterpart takes into consideration the interactions among the single modes. The scope of the stability analysis is to obtain information regarding the transition from an equilibrium solution to another one, and also information regarding the transition nature and the emergent solution after the transition. The disturbance governing equations are solved analytically, whenever possible, and numerical by considering different approaches. Among other important results, it is found that a cylinder cross-section does not affect the thermal instability threshold, but just the linear pattern selection for dilatant and pseudoplastic fluid saturated porous media. A new rheological model is proposed as a solution for singular issues involving the power-law model. Also, a generalised class of one parameter basic solutions is proposed as an alternative description of the isoflux Darcy--Bénard problem. Its stability is investigated.

Data assimilation for advanced cross-scale unstructured-grid ocean modeling.

The coastal ocean is a complex environment with extremely dynamic processes that require a high-resolution and cross-scale modeling approach in which all hydrodynamic fields and scales are considered integral parts of the overall system. In the last decade, unstructured-grid models have been used to advance in seamless modeling between scales. On the other hand, the data assimilation methodologies to improve the unstructured-grid models in the coastal seas have been developed only recently and need significant advancements. Here, we link the unstructured-grid ocean modeling to the variational data assimilation methods. In particular, we show results from the modeling system SANIFS based on SHYFEM fully-baroclinic unstructured-grid model interfaced with OceanVar, a state-of-art variational data assimilation scheme adopted for several systems based on a structured grid. OceanVar implements a 3DVar DA scheme. The combination of three linear operators models the background error covariance matrix. The vertical part is represented using multivariate EOFs for temperature, salinity, and sea level anomaly. The horizontal part is assumed to be Gaussian isotropic and is modeled using a first-order recursive filter algorithm designed for structured and regular grids. Here we introduced a novel recursive filter algorithm for unstructured grids. A local hydrostatic adjustment scheme models the rapidly evolving part of the background error covariance. We designed two data assimilation experiments using SANIFS implementation interfaced with OceanVar over the period 2017-2018, one with only temperature and salinity assimilation by Argo profiles and the second also including sea level anomaly. The results showed a successful implementation of the approach and the added value of the assimilation for the active tracer fields. While looking at the broad basin, no significant improvements are highlighted for the sea level, requiring future investigations. Furthermore, a Machine Learning methodology based on an LSTM network has been used to predict the model SST increments.

Assessing brain connectivity through electroencephalographic signal processing and modeling analysis

Brain functioning relies on the interaction of several neural populations connected through complex connectivity networks, enabling the transmission and integration of information. Recent advances in neuroimaging techniques, such as electroencephalography (EEG), have deepened our understanding of the reciprocal roles played by brain regions during cognitive processes. The underlying idea of this PhD research is that EEG-related functional connectivity (FC) changes in the brain may incorporate important neuromarkers of behavior and cognition, as well as brain disorders, even at subclinical levels. However, a complete understanding of the reliability of the wide range of existing connectivity estimation techniques is still lacking. The first part of this work addresses this limitation by employing Neural Mass Models (NMMs), which simulate EEG activity and offer a unique tool to study interconnected networks of brain regions in controlled conditions. NMMs were employed to test FC estimators like Transfer Entropy and Granger Causality in linear and nonlinear conditions. Results revealed that connectivity estimates reflect information transmission between brain regions, a quantity that can be significantly different from the connectivity strength, and that Granger causality outperforms the other estimators. A second objective of this thesis was to assess brain connectivity and network changes on EEG data reconstructed at the cortical level. Functional brain connectivity has been estimated through Granger Causality, in both temporal and spectral domains, with the following goals: a) detect task-dependent functional connectivity network changes, focusing on internal-external attention competition and fear conditioning and reversal; b) identify resting-state network alterations in a subclinical population with high autistic traits. Connectivity-based neuromarkers, compared to the canonical EEG analysis, can provide deeper insights into brain mechanisms and may drive future diagnostic methods and therapeutic interventions. However, further methodological studies are required to fully understand the accuracy and information captured by FC estimates, especially concerning nonlinear phenomena.

Thermal and air quality modeling of an electric vehicle cabin with low-cost sensors and reinforcement learning

The design process of any electric vehicle system has to be oriented towards the best energy efficiency, together with the constraint of maintaining comfort in the vehicle cabin. Main aim of this study is to research the best thermal management solution in terms of HVAC efficiency without compromising occupant’s comfort and internal air quality. An Arduino controlled Low Cost System of Sensors was developed and compared against reference instrumentation (average R-squared of 0.92) and then used to characterise the vehicle cabin in real parking and driving conditions trials. Data on the energy use of the HVAC was retrieved from the car On-Board Diagnostic port. Energy savings using recirculation can reach 30 %, but pollutants concentration in the cabin builds up in this operating mode. Moreover, the temperature profile appeared strongly nonuniform with air temperature differences up to 10° C. Optimisation methods often require a high number of runs to find the optimal configuration of the system. Fast models proved to be beneficial for these task, while CFD-1D model are usually slower despite the higher level of detail provided. In this work, the collected dataset was used to train a fast ML model of both cabin and HVAC using linear regression. Average scaled RMSE over all trials is 0.4 %, while computation time is 0.0077 ms for each second of simulated time on a laptop computer. Finally, a reinforcement learning environment was built in OpenAI and Stable-Baselines3 using the built-in Proximal Policy Optimisation algorithm to update the policy and seek for the best compromise between comfort, air quality and energy reward terms. The learning curves show an oscillating behaviour overall, with only 2 experiments behaving as expected even if too slow. This result leaves large room for improvement, ranging from the reward function engineering to the expansion of the ML model.

Computational modeling of human atrial cardiomyocytes: integration of electro-mechanical & mechano-electric feedback pathways

The cardiomyocytes are very complex consisting of many interlinked non-linear regulatory mechanisms between electrical excitation and mechanical contraction. Thus given a integrated electromechanically coupled system it becomes hard to understand the individual contributor of cardiac electrics and mechanics under both physiological and pathological conditions. Hence, to identify the causal relationship or to predict the responses in a integrated system the use of computational modeling can be beneficial. Computational modeling is a powerful tool that provides complete control of parameters along with the visibility of all the individual components of the integrated system. The advancement of computational power has made it possible to simulate the models in a short timeframe, providing the possibility of increased predictive power of the integrated system. My doctoral thesis is focused on the development of electromechanically integrated human atrial cardiomyocyte model with proper consideration of feedforward and feedback pathways.

Modeling and Model Predictive Control of an Industrial Hydraulic System

This thesis aims to illustrate the construction of a mathematical model of a hydraulic system, oriented to the design of a model predictive control (MPC) algorithm. The modeling procedure starts with the basic formulation of a piston-servovalve system. The latter is a complex non linear system with some unknown and not measurable effects that constitute a challenging problem for the modeling procedure. The first level of approximation for system parameters is obtained basing on datasheet informations, provided workbench tests and other data from the company. Then, to validate and refine the model, open-loop simulations have been made for data matching with the characteristics obtained from real acquisitions. The final developed set of ODEs captures all the main peculiarities of the system despite some characteristics due to highly varying and unknown hydraulic effects, like the unmodeled resistive elements of the pipes. After an accurate analysis, since the model presents many internal complexities, a simplified version is presented. The latter is used to linearize and discretize correctly the non linear model. Basing on that, a MPC algorithm for reference tracking with linear constraints is implemented. The results obtained show the potential of MPC in this kind of industrial applications, thus a high quality tracking performances while satisfying state and input constraints. The increased robustness and flexibility are evident with respect to the standard control techniques, such as PID controllers, adopted for these systems. The simulations for model validation and the controlled system have been carried out in a Python code environment.