Moral hazard and nonlinear pricing in a general equilibrium model

The paper analyzes a two period general equilibrium model with individual risk and moral hazard. Each household faces two individual states of nature in the second period. These states solely differ in the household's vector of initial endowments, which is strictly larger in the first state (good state) than in the second state (bad state). In the first period households choose a non-observable action. Higher leveis of action give higher probability of the good state of nature to occur, but lower leveIs of utility. Households have access to an insurance market that allows transfer of income across states of oature. I consider two models of financiaI markets, the price-taking behavior model and the nonlínear pricing modelo In the price-taking behavior model suppliers of insurance have a belief about each household's actíon and take asset prices as given. A variation of standard arguments shows the existence of a rational expectations equilibrium. For a generic set of economies every equilibrium is constraíned sub-optímal: there are commodity prices and a reallocation of financiaI assets satisfying the first period budget constraint such that, at each household's optimal choice given those prices and asset reallocation, markets clear and every household's welfare improves. In the nonlinear pricing model suppliers of insurance behave strategically offering nonlinear pricing contracts to the households. I provide sufficient conditions for the existence of equilibrium and investigate the optimality properties of the modeI. If there is a single commodity then every equilibrium is constrained optimaI. Ir there is more than one commodity, then for a generic set of economies every equilibrium is constrained sub-optimaI.

General equilibrium model with restricted participation in financial markets

The paper analyses a general equilibrium model with financiaI markets in which households may face restrictions in trading financiaI assets such as borrowing constraints and collateral (restricted participation model). However, markets are not assumed to be incomplete. We consider a standard general equilibrium model with H > 1 households, 2 periods and S states of nature in the second period. We show that generically the set of equilibrium allocations ia indeterminate, provided the existence of at least one nominal asset and one household for who some restriction is binding. Suppose there are C > 1 commodities in each state of nature and assets pays in units of some commodity. In this case for each household with binding restrictions it is possible to reduce the set of feasible assets trading and obtain a new equilibrium that utility improve alI those households. There is however an upper bound on the number of households to be improved related to the number of states of nature and the number of commodities. In particular, if the number of households ia smaller than the number of states of nature it is possible to Pareto improve any equilibrium by reducing the feasible choice set for each household.

Dynamic hedging with stocastic differential utility

In this paper we study the dynamic hedging problem using three different utility specifications: stochastic differential utility, terminal wealth utility, and we propose a particular utility transformation connecting both previous approaches. In all cases, we assume Markovian prices. Stochastic differential utility, SDU, impacts the pure hedging demand ambiguously, but decreases the pure speculative demand, because risk aversion increases. We also show that consumption decision is, in some sense, independent of hedging decision. With terminal wealth utility, we derive a general and compact hedging formula, which nests as special all cases studied in Duffie and Jackson (1990). We then show how to obtain their formulas. With the third approach we find a compact formula for hedging, which makes the second-type utility framework a particular case, and show that the pure hedging demand is not impacted by this specification. In addition, with CRRA- and CARA-type utilities, the risk aversion increases and, consequently the pure speculative demand decreases. If futures price are martingales, then the transformation plays no role in determining the hedging allocation. We also derive the relevant Bellman equation for each case, using semigroup techniques.

Non-asymptotic confidence bounds for the optimal value of a stochastic program

We discuss a general approach to building non-asymptotic confidence bounds for stochastic optimization problems. Our principal contribution is the observation that a Sample Average Approximation of a problem supplies upper and lower bounds for the optimal value of the problem which are essentially better than the quality of the corresponding optimal solutions. At the same time, such bounds are more reliable than “standard” confidence bounds obtained through the asymptotic approach. We also discuss bounding the optimal value of MinMax Stochastic Optimization and stochastically constrained problems. We conclude with a small simulation study illustrating the numerical behavior of the proposed bounds.

Efeito do desbaste seletivo sobre a divergência genética em progênies de Pinus caribaea Morelet var. bahamensis

The objective of this work was to study the effect of selective thinning on! the genetic divergence in progenies of Pinus caribaea var. bahamensis, aiming to identify the most productive and divergent progenies for the use of improvement program. The test of progenies containing 119 progenies and two commercial controls were planted in March 1990, using 11 x 11 square lattice design, sextuple, partially balanced, disposed in lineal plots with six trees in the spacing of 3,0 x 3,0m. 13 years after planting thinning was realized (selection for DBH), with 50% selection intensity based on Multi-effect index, leaving three trees per plot in all the experiment. The evaluations were done at four situations: A (before the thinning); B (thinned trees); C (remaining trees after thinning) and D (one year after thinning). The analyzed traits were: height, diameter at breast height (DBH), volume, form of stem and wood density. The genetic divergence among the progenies was studied with aid of the canonical variables and of clustering of Tocher method using the generalized distance matrix of Mahalanobis (D(2)) as estimate of the genetic similarity. The progenies were grouped in four groups in situation A, fourteen in the situation B, two in the situation C and three in the situation D. The selective thinning of the trees within of the progenies caused a change in the genetic divergence among the progenies, genetically homogenizing the progenies, as demonstrated by the generalized distances of Mahalanobis, clustering of Tocher' and canonical variables methods; The. thinning made possible a high uniformity in respect to the relative contribution, of the traits for the total genetic divergence. The techniques, of clustering were efficient to identify groups of divergent,progenies for the use hybridization and little divergent progenies for the use in backcross program.

Association of dyslipidemia with intakes of fruit and vegetables and the body fat content of adults clinically selected for a lifestyle modification program

To investigate the relationship of dyslipidemia with demographic distribution and patterns of body fat and dietary intakes. From a universe of adults clinically selected for a lifestyle modification program 979 subjects (409 males and 570 females, 52.2 +/- 9.6 years) fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Overnight-fasting plasma was assayed (dry chemistry) for triglycerides (TG), total (TC) and HDL fraction of cholesterol given the non-HDL (n-HDL) fraction by the difference. Anthropometric assessment included body weight (kg), height (m), fat (bioelectrical impedance) and waist circumference (WC). Food intake was assessed by the 24-hour recall questionnaire and the food groups evaluated through recommendations from an adapted food pyramid. The chances of dyslipidemia from other variable changes were determined by logistic regression with p < 0.05. Normal values of BMI and WC were protective against all dyslipidemia markers whereas only hypercholesterolemia was influenced by diet (meat intake > 2 servings). Dietary intakes have protective effects against hypertriglyceridemia with whole grains, odds ratio (OR) 0.342 (Cl 95%, 0.154-0.760), fruits >= 3 servings (OR 0.523, 0.290-0.941) and vegetables >= 4 servings (OR 0.360, 0.176-0.735). In general total body and abdominal adiposity influenced all dystipidemia markers while dietary intake of fruits and vegetables protected against triglyceridemia.

Ten-week lifestyle changing program reduces several indicators for metabolic syndrome in overweight adults

We aim to investigate the effectiveness of a 10-week lifestyle intervention focusing on physical activity and high fiber intake for reducing indicators for metabolic syndrome in overweight-obese individuals. A prospective study of 50 overweight (OW) adults (22 in the general educational group - G1; 28 in the high fiber nutrition group - G2) was performed. Both groups were offered dietary counseling and supervised exercise. Clinical, anthropometric, dietary and plasma biochemical tests were performed at baseline - time 0 (T0) and after 10 weeks - time 1 (T1). Both groups improved their dietary quality, but only G2 presented higher intake of fruit and vegetables (servings/day), higher plasma beta-carotene levels and a 24% reduction of MetS incidence. Additionally G2 showed greater reductions in body fat (4%), and waist circumference (7%), obesity class III (2%) and obesity class II (14%) rate. Lifestyle intervention, including a high dietary fiber intake, improved healthy eating index and decreased body fat composition and plasma lipid concentrations leading to MetS incidence reduction.

QualiAB: desenvolvimento e validação de uma metodologia de avaliação de serviços de atenção básica

Este artigo apresenta o desenvolvimento, validação e utilização de uma metodologia de avaliação da qualidade dos serviços de atenção primária do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS), o Questionário de Avaliação da Qualidade de Serviços de Atenção Básica (QualiAB). Destina-se aos serviços de atenção básica, organizados segundo diferentes modelos de atenção, incluindo a Saúde da Família. Contém 50 indicadores sobre oferta e organização do trabalho assistencial e programático e 15 sobre gerenciamento, na forma de questões de múltipla escolha, autorespondidas via web pela equipe local do serviço. Confere a cada resposta valor zero, um ou dois; a média geral atribui ao serviço um grau de qualidade expresso pela distância do melhor padrão correspondente à média dois. Foi construído por processo de consenso interativo, que incluiu metodologias qualitativas, teste-piloto, aplicação em 127 serviços, validação de construto e confiabilidade. Respondido, em 2007, por 598 (92%) dos serviços de 115 municípios paulistas, mostrou bom poder para discriminar níveis de qualidade. Adotado em 2010 como parte de um programa de apoio à Atenção Básica da Secretaria de Estado da Saúde de São Paulo, foi respondido por 95% (2.735) dos serviços de 586 municípios (90,8% do Estado). Os resultados foram encaminhados aos municípios. O QualiAB fornece uma avaliação válida, simples e com a possibilidade de retorno imediato para gerentes e profissionais. Mostrou factibilidade, aceitabilidade, bom poder de discriminação e utilidade para auxiliar a gestão da rede de atenção básica do SUS em São Paulo. A experiência indica aplicabilidade nas redes de atenção básica do Brasil.

Toda lattice realization of integrable hierarchies

We present a new realization of scalar integrable hierarchies in terms of the Toda lattice hierarchy. In other words, we show on a large number of examples that an integrable hierarchy, defined by a pseudo-differential Lax operator, can be embedded in the Toda lattice hierarchy. Such a realization in terms the Toda lattice hierarchy seems to be as general as the Drinfeld-Sokolov realization.

Investigation of the relationship between load and loss factors for a Brazilian electric utility

With the considerable increase of the losses in electric utilities of developing countries, such as Brazil, there is an investigation for loss calculation methodologies, considering both technical (inherent of the system) and non-technical (usually associated to the electricity theft) losses. In general, all distribution networks know the load factor, obtained by measuring parameters directly from the network. However, the loss factor, important for the energy loss cost calculation, can only be obtained in a laborious way. Consequently, several formulas have been developed for obtaining the loss factor. Generally, it is used the expression that relates both factors, through the use of a coefficient k. Last reviews introduce a range of factor k within 0.04 - 0.30. In this work, an analysis with real life load curves is presented, determining new values for the coefficient k in a Brazilian electric utility. © 2006 IEEE.

Efeito do desbaste seletivo sobre a divergência genética em progênies de Pinus caribaea Morelet var. bahamensis

The objective of this work was to study the effect of selective thinning on the genetic divergence in progenies of Pinus caribaea var. bahamensis, aiming to identify the most productive and divergent progenies for the use of improvement program. The test of progenies containing 119 progenies and two commercial controls were planted in March 1990, using 11 × 11 square lattice design, sextuple, partially balanced, disposed in lineal plots with six trees in the spacing of 3,0 × 3,0m. 13 years after planting thinning was realized (selection for DBH), with 50% selection intensity based on Multi-effect index, leaving three trees per plot in all the experiment. The evaluations were done at four situations: A (before the thinning); B (thinned trees); C (remaining trees after thinning) and D (one year after thinning). The analyzed traits were: height, diameter at breast height (DBH), volume, form of stem and wood density. The genetic divergence among the progenies was studied with aid of the canonical variables and of clustering of Tocher method, using the generalized distance matrix of Mahalanobis (D2) as estimate of the genetic similarity. The progenies were grouped in four groups in situation A, fourteen in the situation B, two in the situation C and three in the situation D. The selective thinning of the trees within of the progenies caused a change in the genetic divergence among the progenies, genetically homogenizing the progenies, as demonstrated by the generalized distances of Mahalanobis, clustering of Tocher' and canonical variables methods. The thinning made possible a high uniformity in respect to the relative contribution of the traits for the total genetic divergence. The techniques of clustering were efficient to identify groups of divergent progenies for the use hybridization and little divergent progenies for the use in backcross program.

Intervention program efficacy for spelling difficulties

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effects of a metatextual intervention program in developing written narratives of students with learning difficulties

This study aimed to verify the effects of a metatextual intervention program, in the elaboration of stories written by students with learning difficulties. Four students were included in the sample of both genders, with ages ranging between eight years and four months and ten years and two months of age. The program was implemented at the participant schools, using an approach of multiple baseline within-subjects, with two conditions: baseline and intervention. Data analysis was based on the classification of stories produced by the students. Mann-Whitney testing was also applied, to analyze whether there have been significant changes in these productions. The results indicated that all students have improved performance in relation to the categories of produced stories, from elementary schemas (33%), for a more elaborate scheme (77%), with a better structuring of the elements that constitute a story. Statistical analysis also showed that the intervention has produced significant results for all variables analyzed. The data obtained have shown that the program was effective.

Need for a continuing education program for toxoplasmosis control

The Toxoplasma gondii infection is very important from the point of view of public health and affects almost all homeothermic animal species, including birds and mammals. In this study, thirty teachers from elementary schools in the northwest area of the state of São Paulo, Brazil, were interviewed about toxoplasmosis. Their students frequented of first to fourth series of the fundamental teaching. The questionnaire with closed questions were: 1) is the cat the main transmitter of toxoplasmosis in humans?; 2) If the cat can transmit toxoplasmosis, how happens?; 3) “If the dog can transmit toxoplasmosis, how happens?”; Is there any other way to acquire toxoplasmosis?; If there are other means of transmission, which can be? After this stage, lectures of short duration were supplied about this disease and reapplied the interview form. The data were analyzed with base in descriptive statistics. We found that there was an assimilation of the concepts on the control of toxoplasmosis by the teachers. In conclusion, there is the need of implanting one continuing education program for the community in general directed to the improvement of basic concepts of toxoplasmosis control.

Effects of a multimodal exercise program on the functional capacity of Parkinson's disease patients considering disease severity and gender

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)