A Method of Preparing Future Hourly Weather Data for the Study of Global Warming Impact on the Built Environment

The dynamic interaction between building systems and external climate is extremely complex, involving a large number of difficult-to-predict variables. In order to study the impact of global warming on the built environment, the use of building simulation techniques together with forecast weather data are often necessary. Since all building simulation programs require hourly meteorological input data for their thermal comfort and energy evaluation, the provision of suitable weather data becomes critical. Based on a review of the existing weather data generation models, this paper presents an effective method to generate approximate future hourly weather data suitable for the study of the impact of global warming. Depending on the level of information available for the prediction of future weather condition, it is shown that either the method of retaining to current level, constant offset method or diurnal modelling method may be used to generate the future hourly variation of an individual weather parameter. An example of the application of this method to the different global warming scenarios in Australia is presented. Since there is no reliable projection of possible change in air humidity, solar radiation or wind characters, as a first approximation, these parameters have been assumed to remain at the current level. A sensitivity test of their impact on the building energy performance shows that there is generally a good linear relationship between building cooling load and the changes of weather variables of solar radiation, relative humidity or wind speed.

The future of office property

The following paper considers the question, where to office property? In doing so, it focuses, in the first instance, on identifying and describing a selection of key forces for change present within the contemporary operating environment in which office property functions. Given the increasingly complex, dynamic and multi-faceted character of this environment, the paper seeks to identify only the primary forces for change, within the context of the future of office property. These core drivers of change have, for the purposes of this discussion, been characterised as including a range of economic, demographic and socio-cultural factors, together with developments in information and communication technology. Having established this foundation, the paper proceeds to consider the manner in which these forces may, in the future, be manifested within the office property market. Comment is offered regarding the potential future implications of these forces for change together with their likely influence on the nature and management of the physical asset itself. Whilst no explicit time horizon has been envisioned in the preparation of this paper particular attention has been accorded short to medium term trends, that is, those likely to emerge in the office property marketplace over the coming two decades. Further, the paper considers the question posed, in respect of the future of office property, in the context of developed western nations. The degree of commonality seen in these mature markets is such that generalisations may more appropriately and robustly be applied. Whilst some of the comments offered with respect to the target market may find application in other arenas, it is beyond the scope of this paper to explicitly consider highly heterogeneous markets. Given also the wide scope of this paper key drivers for change and their likely implications for the commercial office property market are identified at a global level (within the above established parameters). Accordingly, the focus is necessarily such that it serves to reflect overarching directions at a universal level (with the effect being that direct applicability to individual markets - when viewed in isolation on a geographic or property type specific basis – may not be fitting in all instances)

The impact of service orientation on relationship quality and future intentions

This paper examines the impact of service orientation (SO) on relationship quality, and its consequences for consumer behaviour in the travel industry. Specifically consumers' positive behavioural intentions, perceptions of switching costs, and consumer activism are examined as consequences of relationship quality (RQ). A sample of leisure and business travellers on a cross sea ferry were surveyed using a consumer intercept methodology. We find that SO has a significant and positive impact on RQ and that RQ has a positive impact on positive behavioural intentions and perceptions of switching costs. Both RQ and switching costs were found to reduce consumer activism. The implications of these findings for service managers and academics are discussed and directions forfuture research presented.

Business process modeling : current issues and future challenges

Business process modeling has undoubtedly emerged as a popular and relevant practice in Information Systems. Despite being an actively researched field, anecdotal evidence and experiences suggest that the focus of the research community is not always well aligned with the needs of industry. The main aim of this paper is, accordingly, to explore the current issues and the future challenges in business process modeling, as perceived by three key stakeholder groups (academics, practitioners, and tool vendors). We present the results of a global Delphi study with these three groups of stakeholders, and discuss the findings and their implications for research and practice. Our findings suggest that the critical areas of concern are standardization of modeling approaches, identification of the value proposition of business process modeling, and model-driven process execution. These areas are also expected to persist as business process modeling roadblocks in the future.

Advertising education in Australia: Looking back to the future

In Australia, advertising is a $13 billion industry which needs a supply of suitably skilled employees. Over the years, advertising education has developed from vocational based courses to degree courses across the country. This paper uses diffusion theory and various secondary sources and interviews to observe the development of advertising education in Australia from its early past, to its current day tertiary offerings, to discussing the issues that are arising in the near future. Six critical issues are identified, along with observations about the challenges and opportunities within Australia advertising education. By looking back to the future, it is hoped that this historical review provides lessons for other countries of similar educational structure or background, or even other marketing communication disciplines on a similar evolutionary path.

Third-sector discourses and the future of (un)employment : skilled labor, new technologies, and the meaning of work

In this paper we analyse a 600,000 word corpus comprised of policy statements produced within supranational, national, state and local legislatures about the nature and causes of(un)employment. We identify significant rhetorical and discursive features deployed by third sector (un)employment policy authors that function to extend their legislative grasp to encompass the most intimate aspects of human association.

My media studies : the history and future of ideas

In the context of a multi-paper special issue of TVNM on the future of media studies, this paper traces the tradition of ‘active audience’ theory in TV scholarship, arguing that it has much to offer in the study of new digital media, especially an approach to user-created content and dynamics of change. The paper argues for a ‘cultural science’ approach to ‘active audiences’ in order to analyse and understand how non-professionals and consumers contribute to the growth of knowledge in complex open media systems.

Aging in China and its impact on vehicle design

This study contributes to the growth of design knowledge in China, where vehicle design for the local, older user is in its initial developmental stages. Therefore, this research has explored the travel needs of older Chinese vehicle users in order to assist designers to better understand users’ current and future needs. A triangulation method consisting of interviews, logbook and co-discovery was used to collect multiple forms of data and so explore the research question. Grounded theory has been employed to analyze the research data. This study found that users’ needs are reflected through various ‘meanings’ that they attach to vehicles – meanings that give a tangible expression to their experiences. This study identified six older-user need categories: (i) safety, (ii) utility, (iii) comfort, (iv) identity, (v) emotion and (vi) spirituality. The interrelationships among these six categories are seen as an interactive structure, rather than as a linear or hierarchical arrangement. Chinese cultural values, which are generated from particular local context and users’ social practice, will play a dynamic role in linking and shaping the travel needs of older vehicle users in the future. Moreover, this study structures the older-user needs model into three levels of meaning, to give guidance to vehicle design direction: (i) the practical meaning level, (ii) the social meaning level and (ii) the cultural meaning level. This study suggests that a more comprehensive explanation exists if designers can identify the vehicle’s meaning and property associated with the fulfilled older users’ needs. However, these needs will vary, and must be related to particular technological, social, and cultural contexts. The significance of this study lies in its contributions to the body of knowledge in three areas: research methodology, theory and design. These theoretical contributions provide a series of methodological tools, models and approaches from a vehicle design perspective. These include a conditional/consequential matrix, a travel needs identification model, an older users’ travel-related needs framework, a user information structure model, and an Older-User-Need-Based vehicle design approach. These models suggest a basic framework for the new design process which might assist in the design of new vehicles to fulfil the needs of future, aging Chinese generations. The models have the potential to be transferred to other design domains and different cultural contexts.

Drivers of technology substitution : successive generations of high tech products

Principal Topic High technology consumer products such as notebooks, digital cameras and DVD players are not introduced into a vacuum. Consumer experience with related earlier generation technologies, such as PCs, film cameras and VCRs, and the installed base of these products strongly impacts the market diffusion of the new generation products. Yet technology substitution has received only sparse attention in the diffusion of innovation literature. Research for consumer durables has been dominated by studies of (first purchase) adoption (c.f. Bass 1969) which do not explicitly consider the presence of an existing product/technology. More recently, considerable attention has also been given to replacement purchases (c.f. Kamakura and Balasubramanian 1987). Only a handful of papers explicitly deal with the diffusion of technology/product substitutes (e.g. Norton and Bass, 1987: Bass and Bass, 2004). They propose diffusion-type aggregate-level sales models that are used to forecast the overall sales for successive generations. Lacking household data, these aggregate models are unable to give insights into the decisions by individual households - whether to adopt generation II, and if so, when and why. This paper makes two contributions. It is the first large-scale empirical study that collects household data for successive generations of technologies in an effort to understand the drivers of adoption. Second, in comparision to traditional analysis that evaluates technology substitution as an ''adoption of innovation'' type process, we propose that from a consumer's perspective, technology substitution combines elements of both adoption (adopting the new generation technology) and replacement (replacing the generation I product with generation II). Based on this proposition, we develop and test a number of hypotheses. Methodology/Key Propositions In some cases, successive generations are clear ''substitutes'' for the earlier generation, in that they have almost identical functionality. For example, successive generations of PCs Pentium I to II to III or flat screen TV substituting for colour TV. More commonly, however, the new technology (generation II) is a ''partial substitute'' for existing technology (generation I). For example, digital cameras substitute for film-based cameras in the sense that they perform the same core function of taking photographs. They have some additional attributes of easier copying and sharing of images. However, the attribute of image quality is inferior. In cases of partial substitution, some consumers will purchase generation II products as substitutes for their generation I product, while other consumers will purchase generation II products as additional products to be used as well as their generation I product. We propose that substitute generation II purchases combine elements of both adoption and replacement, but additional generation II purchases are solely adoption-driven process. Extensive research on innovation adoption has consistently shown consumer innovativeness is the most important consumer characteristic that drives adoption timing (Goldsmith et al. 1995; Gielens and Steenkamp 2007). Hence, we expect consumer innovativeness also to influence both additional and substitute generation II purchases. Hypothesis 1a) More innovative households will make additional generation II purchases earlier. 1 b) More innovative households will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. 1 c) Consumer innovativeness will have a stronger impact on additional generation II purchases than on substitute generation II purchases. As outlined above, substitute generation II purchases act, in part like a replacement purchase for the generation I product. Prior research (Bayus 1991; Grewal et al 2004) identified product age as the most dominant factor influencing replacements. Hence, we hypothesise that: Hypothesis 2: Households with older generation I products will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. Our survey of 8,077 households investigates their adoption of two new generation products: notebooks as a technology change to PCs, and DVD players as a technology shift from VCRs. We employ Cox hazard modelling to study factors influencing the timing of a household's adoption of generation II products. We determine whether this is an additional or substitute purchase by asking whether the generation I product is still used. A separate hazard model is conducted for additional and substitute purchases. Consumer Innovativeness is measured as domain innovativeness adapted from the scales of Goldsmith and Hofacker (1991) and Flynn et al. (1996). The age of the generation I product is calculated based on the most recent household purchase of that product. Control variables include age, size and income of household, and age and education of primary decision-maker. Results and Implications Our preliminary results confirm both our hypotheses. Consumer innovativeness has a strong influence on both additional purchases (exp = 1.11) and substitute purchases (exp = 1.09). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 1.0 on a 7-point innovativeness scale. Also consistent with our hypotheses, the age of the generation I product has a dramatic influence for substitute purchases of VCR/DVD (exp = 2.92) and a strong influence for PCs/notebooks (exp = 1.30). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 10 years in the age of the generation I product. Yet, also as hypothesised, there was no influence on additional purchases. The results lead to two key implications. First, there is a clear distinction between additional and substitute purchases of generation II products, each with different drivers. Treating these as a single process will mask the true drivers of adoption. For substitute purchases, product age is a key driver. Hence, implications for marketers of high technology products can utilise data on generation I product age (e.g. from warranty or loyalty programs) to target customers who are more likely to make a purchase.