Developments of the total entropy utility function for the dual purpose of model discrimination and parameter estimation in Bayesian design

The total entropy utility function is considered for the dual purpose of Bayesian design for model discrimination and parameter estimation. A sequential design setting is proposed where it is shown how to efficiently estimate the total entropy utility for a wide variety of data types. Utility estimation relies on forming particle approximations to a number of intractable integrals which is afforded by the use of the sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for Bayesian inference. A number of motivating examples are considered for demonstrating the performance of total entropy in comparison to utilities for model discrimination and parameter estimation. The results suggest that the total entropy utility selects designs which are efficient under both experimental goals with little compromise in achieving either goal. As such, the total entropy utility is advocated as a general utility for Bayesian design in the presence of model uncertainty.

Organic photovoltaics using thin gold film as an alternative anode to indium tin oxide

Indium Tin Oxide (ITO) is the most commonly used anode as a transparent electrode and more recently as an anode for organic photovoltaics (OPVs). However, there are significant drawbacks in using ITO which include high material costs, mechanical instability including brittleness and poor electrical properties which limit its use in low-cost flexible devices. We present initial results of poly(3-hexylthiophene): phenyl-C61-butyric acid methyl ester OPVs showing that an efficiency of 1.9% (short-circuit current 7.01 mA/cm2, open-circuit voltage 0.55 V, fill factor 0.49) can be attained using an ultra thin film of gold coated glass as the device anode. The initial I-V characteristics demonstrate that using high work function metals when the thin film is kept ultra thin can be used as a replacement to ITO due to their greater stability and better morphological control.

Conserved gene structure and function of interleukin-10 in teleost fish

Interleukin-10 (IL-10) is an important immunoregulatory cytokine produced by various types of cells. Researchers describe here the isolation and characterization of olive flounder IL-10 (ofIL-10) cDNA and genomic organization. The ofIL-10 gene encodes a 187 amino acid protein and is composed of a five exon/four intron structure, similar to other known IL-10 genes. The ofIL-10 promoter sequence analysis shows a high level of homology in putative binding sites for transcription factors which are sufficient for transcriptional regulation ofIL-10. Important structural residues are maintained in the ofIL-10 protein including the four cysteines responsible for the two intra-chain disulfide bridges reported for human IL-10 and two extra cysteine residues that exist only in fish species. The phylogenetic analysis clustered ofIL-10 with other fish IL-10s and apart from mammalian IL-10 molecules. Quantitative real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) analysis demonstrated ubiquitous ofIL-10 gene expression in the 13 tissues examined. Additionally, the induction of ofIL-10 gene expression was observed in the kidney tissue from olive flounder infected with bacteria (Edawardsiella tarda) or virus (Viral Hemorrhagic Septicemia Virus; VHSV). These data indicate that IL-10 is an important immune regulator that is conserved strictly genomic organization and function during the evolution of vertebrate immunity.

Early mathematical learning: Number processing skills and executive function at 5 and 8 years of age

This research investigated differences and associations in performance in number processing and executive function for children attending primary school in a large Australian metropolitan city. In a cross-sectional study, performance of 25 children in the first full-time year of school, (Prep; mean age = 5.5 years) and 21 children in Year 3 (mean age = 8.5 years) completed three number processing tasks and three executive function tasks. Year 3 children consistently outperformed the Prep year children on measures of accuracy and reaction time, on the tasks of number comparison, calculation, shifting, and inhibition but not on number line estimation. The components of executive function (shifting, inhibition, and working memory) showed different patterns of correlation to performance on number processing tasks across the early years of school. Findings could be used to enhance teachers’ understanding about the role of the cognitive processes employed by children in numeracy learning, and so inform teachers’ classroom practices.

A Bruch’s membrane substitute fabricated from silk fibroin supports the function of retinal pigment epithelial cells in vitro

Silk fibroin provides a promising biomaterial for ocular tissue reconstruction including the damaged outer blood-retinal barrier of patients afflicted with age-related macular degeneration (AMD). The aim of the present study was to evaluate the function of retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) cells in vitro, when grown on fibroin membranes manufactured to a similar thickness as Bruch’s membrane (3 μm). Confluent cultures of RPE cells (ARPE-19) were established on fibroin membranes and maintained under conditions designed to promote maturation over 4 months. Control cultures were grown on polyester cell culture well inserts (Transwell). Cultures established on either material developed a cobblestoned morphology with partial pigmentation within 12 weeks. Immunocytochemistry at 16 weeks revealed a similar distribution pattern between cultures for F-actin, ZO-1, ezrin, cytokeratin pair 8/18, RPE-65 and Na+/K+-ATPase. Electron microscopy revealed that cultures grown on fibroin displayed a rounder apical surface with a more dense distribution of microvilli. Both cultures avidly ingested fluorescent microspheres coated with vitronectin and bovine serum albumin (BSA), but not controls coated with BSA alone. VEGF and PEDF were detected in the conditioned medium collected from above and below both membrane types. Levels of PEDF were significantly higher than for VEGF on both membranes and a trend was observed towards larger amounts of PEDF in apical compartments. These findings demonstrate that RPE cell functions on fibroin membranes are equivalent to those observed for standard test materials (polyester membranes). As such, these studies support advancement to studies of RPE cell implantation on fibroin membranes in a preclinical model.

The MS risk allele of CD40 is associated with reduced cell-membrane bound expression in antigen presenting cells: Implications for gene function

Human genetic and animal studies have implicated the costimulatory molecule CD40 in the development of multiple sclerosis (MS). We investigated the cell specific gene and protein expression variation controlled by the CD40 genetic variant(s) associated with MS, i.e. the T-allele at rs1883832. Previously we had shown that the risk allele is expressed at a lower level in whole blood, especially in people with MS. Here, we have defined the immune cell subsets responsible for genotype and disease effects on CD40 expression at the mRNA and protein level. In cell subsets in which CD40 is most highly expressed, B lymphocytes and dendritic cells, the MS-associated risk variant is associated with reduced CD40 cell-surface protein expression. In monocytes and dendritic cells, the risk allele additionally reduces the ratio of expression of full-length versus truncated CD40 mRNA, the latter encoding secreted CD40. We additionally show that MS patients, regardless of genotype, express significantly lower levels of CD40 cell-surface protein compared to unaffected controls in B lymphocytes. Thus, both genotype-dependent and independent down-regulation of cell-surface CD40 is a feature of MS. Lower expression of a co-stimulator of T cell activation, CD40, is therefore associated with increased MS risk despite the same CD40 variant being associated with reduced risk of other inflammatory autoimmune diseases. Our results highlight the complexity and likely individuality of autoimmune pathogenesis, and could be consistent with antiviral and/or immunoregulatory functions of CD40 playing an important role in protection from MS. © 2015 Field et al.

Identity-by-Descent Mapping to Detect Rare Variants Conferring Susceptibility to Multiple Sclerosis

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified around 60 common variants associated with multiple sclerosis (MS), but these loci only explain a fraction of the heritability of MS. Some missing heritability may be caused by rare variants that have been suggested to play an important role in the aetiology of complex diseases such as MS. However current genetic and statistical methods for detecting rare variants are expensive and time consuming. 'Population-based linkage analysis' (PBLA) or so called identity-by-descent (IBD) mapping is a novel way to detect rare variants in extant GWAS datasets. We employed BEAGLE fastIBD to search for rare MS variants utilising IBD mapping in a large GWAS dataset of 3,543 cases and 5,898 controls. We identified a genome-wide significant linkage signal on chromosome 19 (LOD = 4.65; p = 1.9×10-6). Network analysis of cases and controls sharing haplotypes on chromosome 19 further strengthened the association as there are more large networks of cases sharing haplotypes than controls. This linkage region includes a cluster of zinc finger genes of unknown function. Analysis of genome wide transcriptome data suggests that genes in this zinc finger cluster may be involved in very early developmental regulation of the CNS. Our study also indicates that BEAGLE fastIBD allowed identification of rare variants in large unrelated population with moderate computational intensity. Even with the development of whole-genome sequencing, IBD mapping still may be a promising way to narrow down the region of interest for sequencing priority. © 2013 Lin et al.

The association between ambient temperature and children's lung function in Baotou, China

The objective of this study is to examine the association between ambient temperature and children’s lung function in Baotou, China. We recruited 315 children (8–12 years) from Baotou, China in the spring of 2004, 2005, and 2006. They performed three successive forced expiratory measurements three times daily (morning, noon, and evening) for about 5 weeks. The highest peak expiratory flow (PEF) was recorded for each session. Daily data on ambient temperature, relative humidity, and air pollution were monitored during the same period. Mixed models with a distributed lag structure were used to examine the effects of temperature on lung function while adjusting for individual characteristics and environmental factors. Low temperatures were significantly associated with decreases in PEF. The effects lasted for lag 0–2 days. For all participants, the cumulative effect estimates (lag 0–2 days) were −1.44 (−1.93, −0.94) L/min, −1.39 (−1.92, −0.86) L/min, −1.40 (−1.97, −0.82) L/min, and −1.28 (−1.69, −0.88) L/min for morning, noon, evening, and daily mean PEF, respectively, associated with 1 °C decrease in daily mean temperature. Generally, the effects of temperature were slightly stronger in boys than in girls for noon, evening, and daily mean PEF, while the effects were stronger in girls for morning PEF. PM2.5 had joint effects with temperature on children’s PEF. Higher PM2.5 increased the impacts of low temperature. Low ambient temperatures are associated with lower lung function in children in Baotou, China. Preventive health policies will be required for protecting children from the cold weather.

Frequency response function based damage identification using principal component analysis and pattern recognition technique

Pattern recognition is a promising approach for the identification of structural damage using measured dynamic data. Much of the research on pattern recognition has employed artificial neural networks (ANNs) and genetic algorithms as systematic ways of matching pattern features. The selection of a damage-sensitive and noise-insensitive pattern feature is important for all structural damage identification methods. Accordingly, a neural networks-based damage detection method using frequency response function (FRF) data is presented in this paper. This method can effectively consider uncertainties of measured data from which training patterns are generated. The proposed method reduces the dimension of the initial FRF data and transforms it into new damage indices and employs an ANN method for the actual damage localization and quantification using recognized damage patterns from the algorithm. In civil engineering applications, the measurement of dynamic response under field conditions always contains noise components from environmental factors. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed strategy with noise polluted data, noise contaminated measurements are also introduced to the proposed algorithm. ANNs with optimal architecture give minimum training and testing errors and provide precise damage detection results. In order to maximize damage detection results, the optimal architecture of ANN is identified by defining the number of hidden layers and the number of neurons per hidden layer by a trial and error method. In real testing, the number of measurement points and the measurement locations to obtain the structure response are critical for damage detection. Therefore, optimal sensor placement to improve damage identification is also investigated herein. A finite element model of a two storey framed structure is used to train the neural network. It shows accurate performance and gives low error with simulated and noise-contaminated data for single and multiple damage cases. As a result, the proposed method can be used for structural health monitoring and damage detection, particularly for cases where the measurement data is very large. Furthermore, it is suggested that an optimal ANN architecture can detect damage occurrence with good accuracy and can provide damage quantification with reasonable accuracy under varying levels of damage.

A directed continuous time random walk model with jump length depending on waiting time

In continuum one-dimensional space, a coupled directed continuous time random walk model is proposed, where the random walker jumps toward one direction and the waiting time between jumps affects the subsequent jump. In the proposed model, the Laplace-Laplace transform of the probability density function P(x,t) of finding the walker at position at time is completely determined by the Laplace transform of the probability density function φ(t) of the waiting time. In terms of the probability density function of the waiting time in the Laplace domain, the limit distribution of the random process and the corresponding evolving equations are derived.

Do motor vehicle crashes arise from single or multiple unique risk processes? An inquiry into crash causes and modelling

Crashes at any particular transport network location consist of a chain of events arising from a multitude of potential causes and/or contributing factors whose nature is likely to reflect geometric characteristics of the road, spatial effects of the surrounding environment, and human behavioural factors. It is postulated that these potential contributing factors do not arise from the same underlying risk process, and thus should be explicitly modelled and understood. The state of the practice in road safety network management applies a safety performance function that represents a single risk process to explain crash variability across network sites. This study aims to elucidate the importance of differentiating among various underlying risk processes contributing to the observed crash count at any particular network location. To demonstrate the principle of this theoretical and corresponding methodological approach, the study explores engineering (e.g. segment length, speed limit) and unobserved spatial factors (e.g. climatic factors, presence of schools) as two explicit sources of crash contributing factors. A Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) analysis is used to explore these two sources and to incorporate prior information about their contribution to crash occurrence. The methodology is applied to the state controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared with the traditional Negative Binomial (NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures indicates that the model with a double risk process outperforms the single risk process NB model, and thus indicating the need for further research to capture all the three crash generation processes into the SPFs.

The function of the RNA-binding protein TEL1 in moss reveals ancient regulatory mechanisms of shoot development

The shoot represents the basic body plan in land plants. It consists of a repeated structure composed of stems and leaves. Whereas vascular plants generate a shoot in their diploid phase, non-vascular plants such as mosses form a shoot (called the gametophore) in their haploid generation. The evolution of regulatory mechanisms or genetic networks used in the development of these two kinds of shoots is unclear. TERMINAL EAR1-like genes have been involved in diploid shoot development in vascular plants. Here, we show that disruption of PpTEL1 from the moss Physcomitrella patens, causes reduced protonema growth and gametophore initiation, as well as defects in gametophore development. Leafy shoots formed on ΔTEL1 mutants exhibit shorter stems with more leaves per shoot, suggesting an accelerated leaf initiation (shortened plastochron), a phenotype shared with the Poaceae vascular plants TE1 and PLA2/LHD2 mutants. Moreover, the positive correlation between plastochron length and leaf size observed in ΔTEL1 mutants suggests a conserved compensatory mechanism correlating leaf growth and leaf initiation rate that would minimize overall changes in plant biomass. The RNA-binding protein encoded by PpTEL1 contains two N-terminus RNA-recognition motifs, and a third C-terminus non-canonical RRM, specific to TEL proteins. Removal of the PpTEL1 C-terminus (including this third RRM) or only 16–18 amino acids within it seriously impairs PpTEL1 function, suggesting a critical role for this third RRM. These results show a conserved function of the RNA-binding PpTEL1 protein in the regulation of shoot development, from early ancestors to vascular plants, that depends on the third TEL-specific RRM.

Some limit theorems for regenerative queues

We consider a single server queue with the interarrival times and the service times forming a regenerative sequence. This traffic class includes the standard models: lid, periodic, Markov modulated (e.g., BMAP model of Lucantoni [18]) and their superpositions. This class also includes the recently proposed traffic models in high speed networks, exhibiting long range dependence. Under minimal conditions we obtain the rates of convergence to stationary distributions, finiteness of stationary moments, various functional limit theorems and the continuity of stationary distributions and moments. We use the continuity results to obtain approximations for stationary distributions and moments of an MMPP/GI/1 queue where the modulating chain has a countable state space. We extend all our results to feedforward networks where the external arrivals to each queue can be regenerative. In the end we show that the output process of a leaky bucket is regenerative if the input process is and hence our results extend to a queue with arrivals controlled by a leaky bucket.

Superconductivity in the nonadiabatic limit

Isotope-shift exponent (cu) and the pressure coefficient of superconducting transition temperature (beta) have been studied in the nonadiabatic limit. We have considered the effect of nonadiabaticity in both within and beyond the Migdal-Eliashberg formalism. It reveals from our study that the pressure coefficient of superconducting transition is high for the low-T-c region and low for the high-T-c region and the minimum value of alpha is obtained where the transition temperature is maximum. Lowest value of isotope-shift exponent is obtained for small momentum exchange between the electrons and the bosonic field. Qualitative variation of beta with temperature is consistent with the experimental results of the hole doped superconductors for small momentum exchange.