Toward a novel forensic intelligence model: systematic profiling of false identity documents

False identity documents represent a serious threat through their production and use in organized crime and by terrorist organizations. The present-day fight against this criminal problem and threats to national security does not appropriately address the organized nature of this criminal activity, treating each fraudulent document on its own during investigation and the judicial process, which causes linkage blindness and restrains the analysis capacity. Given the drawbacks of this case-by-case approach, this article proposes an original model in which false identity documents are used to inform a systematic forensic intelligence process. The process aims to detect links, patterns, and tendencies among false identity documents in order to support strategic and tactical decision making, thus sustaining a proactive intelligence-led approach to fighting identity document fraud and the associated organized criminality. This article formalizes both the model and the process, using practical applications to illustrate its powerful capabilities. This model has a general application and can be transposed to other fields of forensic science facing similar difficulties.

Study of isotopic variations in black powder: reflections on the use of stable isotopes in forensic science for source inference.

Isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) has recently made its appearance in the forensic community. This high-precision technology has already been applied to a broad range of forensic fields such as illicit drugs, explosives and flammable liquids, where current, routinely used techniques have limited powers of discrimination. The conclusions drawn from the majority of these IRMS studies appear to be very promising. Used in a comparative process, as in food or drug authentication, the measurement of stable isotope ratios is a new and remarkable analytical tool for the discrimination or the identification of a substance with a definite source or origin. However, the research consists mostly of preliminary studies. The significance of this 'new' piece of information needs to be evaluated in light of a forensic framework to assess the actual potential and validity of IRMS, considering the characteristics of each field. Through the isotopic study of black powder, this paper aims at illustrating the potential of the method and the limitations of current knowledge in stable isotopes when facing forensic problems.

Forensic processing of false identity and travel documents to produce intelligence: a novel approach to assist in fighting organized crime

The production and use of false identity and travel documents in organized crime represent a serious and evolving threat. However, a case-by-case perspective, thus suffering from linkage blindness and a limited analysis capacity, essentially drives the present-day fight against this criminal problem. To assist in overcoming these limitations, a process model was developed using a forensic perspective. It guides the systematic analysis and management of seized false documents to generate forensic intelligence that supports strategic and tactical decision-making in an intelligence-led policing approach. The model is articulated on a three-level architecture that aims to assist in detecting and following-up on general trends, production methods and links between cases or series. Using analyses of a large dataset of counterfeit and forged identity and travel documents, it is possible to illustrate the model, its three levels and their contribution. Examples will point out how the proposed approach assists in detecting emerging trends, in evaluating the black market's degree of structure, in uncovering criminal networks, in monitoring the quality of false documents, and in identifying their weaknesses to orient the conception of more secured travel and identity documents. The process model proposed is thought to have a general application in forensic science and can readily be transposed to other fields of study.

Fast gas chromatography and negative-ion chemical ionization tandem mass spectrometry for forensic analysis of cannabinoids in whole blood.

The present work describes a fast gas chromatography/negative-ion chemical ionization tandem mass spectrometric assay (Fast GC/NICI-MS/MS) for analysis of tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), 11-hydroxy-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC-OH) and 11-nor-9-carboxy-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC-COOH) in whole blood. The cannabinoids were extracted from 500 microL of whole blood by a simple liquid-liquid extraction (LLE) and then derivatized by using trifluoroacetic anhydride (TFAA) and hexafluoro-2-propanol (HFIP) as fluorinated agents. Mass spectrometric detection of the analytes was performed in the selected reaction-monitoring mode on a triple quadrupole instrument after negative-ion chemical ionization. The assay was found to be linear in the concentration range of 0.5-20 ng/mL for THC and THC-OH, and of 2.5-100 ng/mL for THC-COOH. Repeatability and intermediate precision were found less than 12% for all concentrations tested. Under standard chromatographic conditions, the run cycle time would have been 15 min. By using fast conditions of separation, the assay analysis time has been reduced to 5 min, without compromising the chromatographic resolution. Finally, a simple approach for estimating the uncertainty measurement is presented.

Forensic intelligence framework-Part I: induction of a transversal model by comparing illicit drugs and false identity documents monitoring

Forensic intelligence is a distinct dimension of forensic science. Forensic intelligence processes have mostly been developed to address either a specific type of trace or a specific problem. Even though these empirical developments have led to successes, they are trace-specific in nature and contribute to the generation of silos which hamper the establishment of a more general and transversal model. Forensic intelligence has shown some important perspectives but more general developments are required to address persistent challenges. This will ensure the progress of the discipline as well as its widespread implementation in the future. This paper demonstrates that the description of forensic intelligence processes, their architectures, and the methods for building them can, at a certain level, be abstracted from the type of traces considered. A comparative analysis is made between two forensic intelligence approaches developed independently in Australia and in Europe regarding the monitoring of apparently very different kind of problems: illicit drugs and false identity documents. An inductive effort is pursued to identify similarities and to outline a general model. Besides breaking barriers between apparently separate fields of study in forensic science and intelligence, this transversal model would assist in defining forensic intelligence, its role and place in policing, and in identifying its contributions and limitations. The model will facilitate the paradigm shift from the current case-by-case reactive attitude towards a proactive approach by serving as a guideline for the use of forensic case data in an intelligence-led perspective. A follow-up article will specifically address issues related to comparison processes, decision points and organisational issues regarding forensic intelligence (part II).

Forensic science culture

Heretofore the issue of quality in forensic science is approached through a quality management policy whose tenets are ruled by market forces. Despite some obvious advantages of standardization of methods allowing interlaboratory comparisons and implementation of databases, this approach suffers from a serious lack of consideration for forensic science as a science. A critical study of its principles and foundations, which constitutes its culture, enables to consider the matter of scientific quality through a new dimension. A better understanding of what pertains to forensic science ensures a better application and improves elementary actions within the investigative and intelligence processes as well as the judicial process. This leads to focus the attention on the core of the subject matter: the physical remnants of the criminal activity, namely, the traces that produce information in understanding this activity. Adapting practices to the detection and recognition of relevant traces relies on the apprehension of the processes underlying forensic science tenets (Locard, Kirk, relevancy issue) and a structured management of circumstantial information (directindirect information). This is influenced by forensic science education and training. However, the lack of homogeneity with regard to the scientific nature and culture of the discipline within forensic science practitioners and partners represents a real challenge. A sound and critical reconsideration of the forensic science practitioner's roles (investigator, evaluator, intelligence provider) and objectives (prevention, strategies, evidence provider) within the criminal justice system is a means to strengthen the understanding and the application of forensic science. Indeed, the whole philosophy is aimed at ensuring a high degree of excellence, namely, a dedicated scientific quality.

Population genetics of Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) in the Jura and the Pyrenees: a non-invasive approach to avian conservation genetics

RÉSUMÉ Le Grand tétras est un galliforme de montagne apparenté au faisan et au tétras lyre. Il est distribué de manière continue à travers la toundra et les montagnes de moyenne altitude en Europe de l'ouest. Toutefois, les populations d'Europe de l'ouest ont subi un déclin constant au cours des derniers siècles. Les causes de ce déclin sont probablement liées à l'activité humaine, telle .que l'élevage ou le tourisme, qui ont engendré une modification et une fragmentation de l'habitat de l'espèce. Malheureusement, les populations soumises à de forts déclins démographiques peuvent subir des effets génétiques (augmentation de la consanguinité et perte de diversité génétique) pouvant diminuer leur potentiel de reproduction et conduire irrémédiablement à l'extinction. Cette thèse présente les analyses conduites dans le but d'estimer l'impact du déclin démographique des populations de Grand tétras sur l'étendue et la distribution de leur variabilité génétique dans le Jura et dans les Pyrénées. Du fait de la législation locale protégeant les tétraonidés en général, mais également en raison de la biologie très cryptique du Grand tétras, l'ensemble des analyses de cette étude a été réalisé à partir de matériel génétique extrait des fientes (ou échantillonnage génétique non invasif). Dans la première partie de l'étude, je détaille les protocoles d'extraction. d'ADN et d'amplification par PCR modifiés à partir des protocoles classiques utilisant des échantillons conventionnels, riches en ADN. L'utilisation d'ADN fécal impose des contraintes dues à la mauvaise qualité et à la faible quantité du matériel génétique à disposition dans les fientes. Ces contraintes ont pu être partiellement contournées en réalisant des répétitions multiples du génotypage afin d'obtenir un degré de fiabilité suffisante. J'ai également analysé les causes de la dégradation de l'ADN dans les excréments. Parmi les causes les plus communes, telles que l'activité bactérienne, l'hydrolyse spontanée et la dégradation enzymatique par les DNases libres, c'est ce dernier facteur qui apparaît comme étant la cause majeure et la plus rapide responsable de la dégradation de la qualité des échantillons. La rapidité de l'action enzymatique suggère que les plans d'échantillonnages de excréments sur le terrain pourraient être optimisés en les réalisant dans des conditions climatiques froides et sèches, favorisant ainsi l'inhibition des DNases. La seconde partie de la thèse est une étude par simulation visant à déterminer la capacité du logiciel Structure à identifier les structures génétiques complexes et hiérarchiques fréquemment rencontrées dans les populations naturelles, et ce en utilisant différents types de marqueurs génétiques. Les troisième et quatrième parties de cette thèse décrivent le statut génétique des populations résiduelles du Jura et des Pyrénées à partir de l'analyse de 11 loci microsatellites. Nous n'avons pas pu mettre en évidence dans les deux populations des effets liés à la consanguinité ou à la réduction de la diversité génétique. De plus, la différenciation génétique entre les patches d'habitats favorables reste modérée et corrélée à la distance géographique, ce qui suggère que la dispersion d'individus entre les patches a été importante au moins pendant ces dernières générations. La comparaison des paramètres de la diversité génétique avec ceux d'autres populations de Grand tétras, ou d'autres espèces proches, indique que la population du Jura a retenu une proportion importante de sa diversité originelle. Ces résultats suggèrent que le déclin récent des populations a jusqu'ici eu un impact modéré sur les facteurs génétiques et que ces populations semblent avoir conservé le potentiel génétique nécessaire à leur survie à long terme. Finalement, en cinquième partie, l'analyse de l'apparentement entre les mâles qui participent à la parade sur les places de chant (leks) indique que ces derniers sont distribués en agrégats de manière non aléatoire, préférentiellement entre individus apparentés. De plus, la corrélation entre les distances génétique et géographique entre les leks est en accord avec les motifs d'isolement par la distance mis en évidence à d'autres niveaux hiérarchiques (entre patches d'habitat et populations), ainsi qu'avec les études menées sur d'autres espèces ayant choisi ce même système de reproduction. En conclusion, cette première étude basée uniquement sur de l'ADN nucléaire aviaire extrait à partir de fèces a fourni des informations nouvelles qui n'auraient pas pu être obtenues par une méthode d'observation sur le terrain ou d'échantillonnage génétique classique. Aucun oiseau n'a été dérangé ou capturé, et les résultats sont comparables à d'autres études concernant des espèces proches. Néanmoins, la taille de ces populations approche des niveaux au-dessous desquels la survie à long terme est fortement incertaine. La persistance de la diversité génétique pour les prochaines générations reste en conséquence liée à la survie des adultes et à une reprise du succès de la reproduction. ABSTRACT Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) is a large grouse that is continuously distributed across the tundra and the mid-high mountains of Western Europe. However, the populations in Western Europe have been showing a constant decline during the last decades. The causes for this decline are possibly related to human activities, such as cattle breeding and tourism that have both led to habitat modification and fragmentation. Unfortunately, populations that have undergone drastic demographic bottlenecks often go through genetic processes of inbreeding and loss of diversity that decrease their fitness and eventually lead to extinction. This thesis presents the investigations conducted to estimate the impact of the demographic decline of capercaillie populations on the extent and distribution of their genetic variability in the Jura and in the Pyrenees mountains. Because grouse are protected by wildlife legislation, and also because of the cryptic behaviour of capercaillie, all DNA material used in this study was extracted from faeces (non-invasive genetic sampling). In the first part of my thesis, I detail the protocols of DNA extraction and PCR amplification adapted from classical methods using conventional DNA-rich samples. The use of faecal DNA imposes specific constraints due to the low quantity and the highly degraded genetic material available. These constraints are partially overcome by performing multiple genotyping repetitions to obtain sufficient reliability. I also investigate the causes of DNA degradation in faeces. Among the main degraders, namely bacterial activity, spontaneous hydrolysis, and free-¬DNase activities, the latter was pointed out as the most important according to our experiments. These enzymes degrade DNA very rapidly, and, as a consequence, faeces sampling schemes must be planned preferably in cold and dry weather conditions, allowing for enzyme activity inhibition. The second part of the thesis is a simulation study aiming to assess the capacity of the software Structure to detect population structure in hierarchical models relevant to situations encountered in wild populations, using several genetic markers. The methods implemented in Structure appear efficient in detecting the highest hierarchical structure. The third and fourth parts of the thesis describe the population genetics status of the remaining Jura and Pyrenees populations using 11 microsatellite loci. In either of these populations, no inbreeding nor reduced genetic diversity was detected. Furthermore, the genetic differentiation between patches defined by habitat suitability remains moderate and correlated with geographical distance, suggesting that significant dispersion between patches was at work at least until the last generations. The comparison of diversity indicators with other species or other populations of capercaillie indicate that population in the Jura has retained a large part of its original genetic diversity. These results suggest that the recent decline has had so forth a moderate impact on• genetic factors and that these populations might have retained the potential for long term survival, if the decline is stopped. Finally, in the fifth part, the analysis of relatedness between males participating in the reproduction parade, or lek, indicate that capercaillie males, like has been shown for some other grouse species, gather on leks• among individuals that are more related than the average of the population. This pattern appears to be due to both population structure and kin-association. As a conclusion, this first study relying exclusively on nuclear DNA extracted from faeces has provided novel information that was not available through field observation or classical genetic sampling. No bird has been captured or disturbed, and the results are consistent with other studies of closely related species. However, the size of these populations is approaching thresholds below which long-term survival is unlikely. The persistence of genetic diversity for the forthcoming generations remains therefore bond to adult survival and to the increase of reproduction success.

The analysis of ecstasy tablets in a forensic drug intelligence perspective

The use by police services and inquiring agencies of forensic data in an intelligence perspective is still fragmentary and to some extent ignored. In order to increase the efficiency of criminal investigation to target illegal drug trafficking organisations and to provide valuable information about their methods, it is necessary to include and interpret objective drug analysis results already during the investigation phase. The value of visual, physical and chemical data of seized ecstasy tablets, as a support for criminal investigation on a strategic and tactical level has been investigated. In a first phase different characteristics of ecstasy tablets have been studied in order to define their relevance, variation, correlation and discriminating power in an intelligence perspective. During 5 years, over 1200 cases of ecstasy seizures (concerning about 150000 seized tablets) coming from different regions of Switzerland (City and Canton of Zurich, Cantons Ticino, Neuchâtel and Geneva) have been systematically recorded. This turned out to be a statistically representative database including large and small cases. During the second phase various comparison and clustering methods have been tested and evaluated, on the type and relevance of tablet characteristics, thus increasing knowledge about synthetic drugs, their manufacturing and trafficking. Finally analytical methodologies have been investigated and formalised, applying traditional intelligence methods. In this context classical tools, which are used in criminal analysis (like the I2 Analyst Notebook, I2 Ibase, ?) have been tested and adapted to address the specific need of forensic drug intelligence. The interpretation of these links provides valuable information about criminal organisations and their trafficking methods. In the final part of this thesis practical examples illustrate the use and value of such information.

Linking the population genetics and ecology of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi

Résumé Les champignons endomycorhiziens arbusculaires (CEA) ont co-évolué avec les plantes terrestres depuis plus de 400 millions d'années. De nos jours, les CEA forment une symbiose avec les racines de la majorité des plantes terrestres. Les CEA sont écologiquement importants parce qu'ils influencent non seulement la croissance des plantes, mais aussi leur diversité. Les CEA sont des biotrophes obligatoires qui reçoivent leur énergie sous forme de glucides issus de la photosynthèse des plantes. En contrepartie, les CEA apportent à leurs hôtes du phospore. Les CEA croissent et se reproduisent clonalement en formant des hyphes et des spores. De plus, les CEA sont coenocytiques et multigénomiques; le cytoplasme d'un CEA contient des noyeaux génétiquement différents. De nombreuses études ont démontré que différentes espèces de CEA agissent différentiellement sur la croissance des plantes. Malgré une conscience de plus en plus forte de l'existence d'une variabilité intraspécifique, la question de savoir si les populations de CEA sont génétiquement variables a été largement négligée. Dans le Chapitre 2, j'ai cherché à savoir si une population de CEA provenant d'un seul champ possède une diversité génétique. Cette étude a mis en évidence une importante variation génétique et phénotypique au sein d'individus de la même population. Des différences au niveau de traits de croissance, héritables et liés à la valeur sélective, indiquent que la variation génétique observée entre isolats n'est pas entièrement neutre. Dans le Chapitre 3, je montre que les différences génétiques entre isolats de CEA d'une population provoquent de la variation dans la croissance des plantes. L'effet des isolats dépend des conditions environnementales et varie de bénéfique à parasitique. Dans le Chapitre 4, je montre que des traits de croissance de CEA varient significativement dans des environnements contrastés. J'ai détecté de fortes interactions entre différents génotypes de CEA et différentes espèces de plantes. Ceci suggère que dans un environnement hétérogène, la sélection pourrait localement favoriser différents génotypes de CEA, maintenant ainsi la diversité génétique dans la population. Les résultats de ce travail aident à mieux comprendre l'importance écologique de la variation intraspécifique des CEA. La possibilité de pouvoir cultiver des individus d'une population de CEA au laboratoire nous a permis une meilleure compréhension de la génétique de ces champignons. De plus, ce travail est une base pour de futures expériences visant à comprendre l'importance évolutive de la diversité intraspécifique des CEA. Abstract Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (A1VIF) have co-evolved with land plants -for over 400 million years. Today, AMF form symbioses with roots of most land plants and are ecologically important because they alter plant growth and affect plant diversity. AMF are obligate biotrophs, obtaining their energy in form of plant-derived photosynthates. In return,- they supply their host plants with phosphorous. These fungi grow and reproduce clonally by hyphae and spores. They are coenocytic and multigenomic, harbouring genetically different nuclei in a common cytoplasm. Many studies have shown different AMF species differentially alter plant growth. Despite the increasing awareness of intraspecific variability the question whether there is any genetic variation among different individuals of the same population has been largely neglected. In Chapter 2, we investigated whether there is genetic diversity in a field population of the AMF G. intraradices. This work revealed that large genetic and heritable phenotypic variation exists in this AMF population. Differences in fitness-related growth traits among isolates suggest that some of the observed genetic variation is not selectively neutral. In Chapter 3, we show that genetic differences among isolates from the same population also cause variation in plant growth. The isolate effects on plant growth depended on the environmental conditions and varied from beneficial to detrimental. In Chapter 4, fitnessrelated growth traits of genetically different isolates were significantly altered in contrasting environments. we detected strong AMF isolate by host species interacfions which suggests that in a heterogeneous environment selection could locally favour different AMF genotypes, thereby maintaining high genetic diversity in the population. The results of this work contribute to the understanding of the ecological importance of intraspecific diversity in AMF. The possibility of culturing individuals of an AMF field population under laboratory condition gave new insights into AMF genetics and lays a foundation for future studies to analyse the evolutionary significance of intraspecific genetic diversity in AMF.

Isotope ratio mass spectrometry as a tool for source inference in forensic science: a critical review

Isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) has been used in numerous fields of forensic science in a source inference perspective. This review compiles the studies published on the application of isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) to the traditional fields of forensic science so far. It completes the review of Benson et al. [1] and synthesises the extent of knowledge already gathered in the following fields: illicit drugs, flammable liquids, human provenancing, microtraces, explosives and other specific materials (packaging tapes, safety matches, plastics, etc.). For each field, a discussion assesses the state of science and highlights the relevance of the information in a forensic context. Through the different discussions which mark out the review, the potential and limitations of IRMS, as well as the needs and challenges of future studies are emphasized. The paper elicits the various dimensions of the source which can be obtained from the isotope information and demonstrates the transversal nature of IRMS as a tool for source inference.

Whole genome sequencing as a means to assess pathogenic mutations in medical genetics and cancer.

The past decade has seen the emergence of next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies, which have revolutionized the field of human molecular genetics. With NGS, significant portions of the human genome can now be assessed by direct sequence analysis, highlighting normal and pathological variants of our DNA. Recent advances have also allowed the sequencing of complete genomes, by a method referred to as whole genome sequencing (WGS). In this work, we review the use of WGS in medical genetics, with specific emphasis on the benefits and the disadvantages of this technique for detecting genomic alterations leading to Mendelian human diseases and to cancer.

Prediction in forensic science: a critical examination of common understandings

In this commentary, we argue that the term 'prediction' is overly used when in fact, referring to foundational writings of de Finetti, the correspondent term should be inference. In particular, we intend (i) to summarize and clarify relevant subject matter on prediction from established statistical theory, and (ii) point out the logic of this understanding with respect practical uses of the term prediction. Written from an interdisciplinary perspective, associating statistics and forensic science as an example, this discussion also connects to related fields such as medical diagnosis and other areas of application where reasoning based on scientific results is practiced in societal relevant contexts. This includes forensic psychology that uses prediction as part of its vocabulary when dealing with matters that arise in the course of legal proceedings.