993 resultados para Failure Probability
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Coloured foliage due to anthocyanin pigments (bronze/red/black) is an attractive trait that is often lacking in many bedding, ornamental and horticultural plants. Apples (Malus × domestica) containing an allelic variant of the anthocyanin regulator, Md-MYB10R6, are highly pigmented throughout the plant, due to autoregulation by MYB10 upon its own promoter. We investigated whether Md-MYB10R6 from apple is capable of functioning within the heterologous host Petunia hybrida to generate plants with novel pigmentation patterns. The Md-MYB10R6 transgene (MYB10–R6pro:MYB10:MYB10term) activated anthocyanin synthesis when transiently expressed in Antirrhinumroseadorsea petals and petunia leaf discs. Stable transgenic petunias containing Md-MYB10R6 lacked foliar pigmentation but had coloured flowers, complementing the an2 phenotype of ‘Mitchell’ petunia. The absence of foliar pigmentation was due to the failure of the Md-MYB10R6 gene to self-activate in vegetative tissues, suggesting that additional protein partners are required for Md-MYB10 to activate target genes in this heterologous system. In petunia flowers, where endogenous components including MYB-bHLH-WDR (MBW) proteins were present, expression of the Md-MYB10R6 promoter was initiated, allowing auto-regulation to occur and activating anthocyanin production. Md-MYB10 is capable of operating within the petunia MBW gene regulation network that controls the expression of the anthocyanin biosynthesis genes, AN1 (bHLH) and MYBx (R3-MYB repressor) in petals.
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Pollution on electrical insulators is one of the greatest causes of failure of substations subjected to high levels of salinity and environmental pollution. Considering leakage current as the main indicator of pollution on insulators, this paper focus on establishing the effect of the environmental conditions on the risk of failure due to pollution on insulators and determining the significant change in the magnitude of the pollution on the insulators during dry and humid periods. Hierarchical segmentation analysis was used to establish the effect of environmental conditions on the risk of failure due to pollution on insulators. The Kruskal-Wallis test was utilized to determine the significant changes in the magnitude of the pollution due to climate periods. An important result was the discovery that leakage current was more common on insulators during dry periods than humid ones. There was also a higher risk of failure due to pollution during dry periods. During the humid period, various temperatures and wind directions produced a small change in the risk of failure. As a technical result, operators of electrical substations can now identify the cause of an increase in risk of failure due to pollution in the area. The research provides a contribution towards the behaviour of the leakage current under conditions similar to those of the Colombian Caribbean coast and how they affect the risk of failure of the substation due to pollution.
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BACKGROUND After general surgery, the lower limb experiences some of the highest complication rates. However, little is known about contributing factors to surgical site failure in the lower limb dermatological surgery population. OBJECTIVE To determine the incidence of lower limb surgical site failure and to explore the predictors that contribute to surgical site failure. METHODS A prospective observational study design was used to collect data from 73 participants, from July 2010, to March 2012. Incidence was determined as a percentage of surgical site failure from the total population. Predictors were determined by the use of a binary logistic regression model. RESULTS The surgical site failure rate was 53.4%. Split-skin grafting had a higher failure rate than primary closures, 66% versus 26.1%. Predictors of lower limb surgical site failure were identified as increasing age (p = .04) and the presence of postoperative hematoma (p = .01), with all patients who developed surgical site infection experiencing surgical site failure (p = .01). CONCLUSION Findings from this study confirmed that the lower limb is at high risk of surgical site failure. Two predictors of surgical site failure from this cohort were determined. However, to understand this phenomenon and make recommendations to assist and reduce surgical site complications, further research in this field is required.
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Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is characterized by renal fibrosis that can lead to end-stage renal failure, and studies have supported a strong genetic influence on the risk of developing CKD. However, investigations of the underlying molecular mechanisms are hampered by the lack of suitable hereditary models in animals. We therefore sought to establish hereditary mouse models for CKD and renal fibrosis by investigating mice treated with the chemical mutagen N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea, and identified a mouse with autosomal recessive renal failure, designated RENF. Three-week old RENF mice were smaller than their littermates, whereas at birth they had been of similar size. RENF mice, at 4-weeks of age, had elevated concentrations of plasma urea and creatinine, indicating renal failure, which was associated with small and irregularly shaped kidneys. Genetic studies using DNA from 10 affected mice and 91 single nucleotide polymorphisms mapped the Renf locus to a 5.8Mbp region on chromosome 17E1.3. DNA sequencing of the xanthine dehydrogenase (Xdh) gene revealed a nonsense mutation at codon 26 that co-segregated with affected RENF mice. The Xdh mutation resulted in loss of hepatic XDH and renal Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) expression. XDH mutations in man cause xanthinuria with undetectable plasma uric acid levels and three RENF mice had plasma uric acid levels below the limit of detection. Histological analysis of RENF kidney sections revealed abnormal arrangement of glomeruli, intratubular casts, cellular infiltration in the interstitial space, and interstitial fibrosis. TUNEL analysis of RENF kidney sections showed extensive apoptosis predominantly affecting the tubules. Thus, we have established a mouse model for autosomal recessive early-onset renal failure due to a nonsense mutation in Xdh that is a model for xanthinuria in man. This mouse model could help to increase our understanding of the molecular mechanisms associated with renal fibrosis and the specific roles of XDH and uric acid. © 2012 Piret et al.
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Background We have previously demonstrated that circulating NT-proBNP is truncated at the N and C termini. Aims of this study are three-fold: firstly to determine whether the NT-proBNP levels correlate with NYHA functional classes when measuring with different antibody pairs; secondly to evaluate the diagnostic potential of ProBNP and; thirdly to investigate whether combining NT-proBNP assays with or without ProBNP would lead to better diagnostic accuracies. Methods Plasma samples were collected from healthy controls (n = 52) and HF patients (n = 46). Customized AlphaLISA® immunoassays were developed and validated to measure the concentrations of proBNP and NT-proBNP (with antibodies targeting 13–45, 13–76, 28–76). The diagnostic performance and predictive value of proBNP and NT-proBNP assays and their combinations were evaluated. Results Plasma proBNP assay showed acceptable diagnostic performance. NT-proBNP13–76 assay is useful in diagnosing and stratifying HF patients. The diagnostic performance of NT-proBNP13–76 demonstrated improvement over commercial NT-proBNP tests. The combination of NT-proBNP13–76 with NT-proBNP28–76 assays gave the best diagnostic assay performance. Conclusion Our results demonstrate that while there is major heterogeneity in circulating NT-proBNP, specific epitopes of the peptides are extraordinarily stable, providing ideal targets for clinically useful diagnostic assays. Future new clinical diagnostic clinical trials should include a multimarker approach rather than using a single marker to diagnose HF.
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Change point estimation is recognized as an essential tool of root cause analyses within quality control programs as it enables clinical experts to search for potential causes of change in hospital outcomes more effectively. In this paper, we consider estimation of the time when a linear trend disturbance has occurred in survival time following an in-control clinical intervention in the presence of variable patient mix. To model the process and change point, a linear trend in the survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery is formulated using hierarchical models in a Bayesian framework. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including the location and the slope size of the trend and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time cumulative sum control chart (CUSUM) control charts for different trend scenarios. In comparison with the alternatives, step change point model and built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the proposed Bayesian estimator over linear trends. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.
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Objective: To review the outcome of acute liver failure (ALF) and the effect of liver transplantation in children in Australia. Methodology: A retrospective review was conducted of all paediatric patients referred with acute liver failure between 1985 and 2000 to the Queensland Liver Transplant Service, a paediatric liver transplant centre based at the Royal Children's Hospital, Brisbane, that is one of three paediatric transplant centres in Australia. Results: Twenty-six patients were referred with ALF. Four patients did not require transplantation and recovered with medical therapy while two were excluded because of irreversible neurological changes and died. Of the 20 patients considered for transplant, three refused for social and/or religious reasons, with 17 patients listed for transplantation. One patient recovered spontaneously and one died before receiving a transplant. There were 15 transplants of which 40% (6/15) were < 2 years old. Sixty-seven per cent (10/15) survived > 1 month after transplantation. Forty per cent (6/15) survived more than 6 months after transplant. There were only four long term survivors after transplant for ALF (27%). Overall, 27% (6/22) of patients referred with ALF survived. Of the 16 patients that died, 44% (7/16) were from neurological causes. Most of these were from cerebral oedema but two patients transplanted for valproate hepatotoxicity died from neurological disease despite good graft function. Conclusions: Irreversible neurological disease remains a major cause of death in children with ALF. We recommend better patient selection and early referral and transfer to a transplant centre before onset of irreversible neurological disease to optimize outcome of children transplanted for ALF.
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For clustered survival data, the traditional Gehan-type estimator is asymptotically equivalent to using only the between-cluster ranks, and the within-cluster ranks are ignored. The contribution of this paper is two fold: - (i) incorporating within-cluster ranks in censored data analysis, and; - (ii) applying the induced smoothing of Brown and Wang (2005, Biometrika) for computational convenience. Asymptotic properties of the resulting estimating functions are given. We also carry out numerical studies to assess the performance of the proposed approach and conclude that the proposed approach can lead to much improved estimators when strong clustering effects exist. A dataset from a litter-matched tumorigenesis experiment is used for illustration.
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An expression is derived for the probability that the determinant of an n x n matrix over a finite field vanishes; from this it is deduced that for a fixed field this probability tends to 1 as n tends to.
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The purpose of this research is to extend an understanding of how Black and White South African consumers' causal attributions for major household appliance performance failures impact on their anger and subsequent complaint behaviour. A survey was administered to Black and White South African consumers who were dissatisfied with the performance of a major household appliance item. Respondents resided in a major metropolitan area. The findings showed that, compared to Whites, the Black South Africans felt a low but significantly higher external locus of causality and lower control, and experienced a higher level of anger regarding product failure. The level of anger determined the decision to take complaint action, but racial group determined the type of action taken. Blacks complained more actively to retailers and engaged more in private complaint action than Whites. These findings may show that Black South Africans are developing a more individualistic orientation as consumers. Therefore, researchers should consider the effect of cultural swapping when researching consumer behaviour in multi-cultural countries. Implications for retailers in terms of complaint handling are indicated.
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Speed is recognised as a key contributor to crash likelihood and severity, and to road safety performance in general. Its fundamental role has been recognised by making Safe Speeds one of the four pillars of the Safe System. In this context, impact speeds above which humans are likely to sustain fatal injuries have been accepted as a reference in many Safe System infrastructure policy and planning discussions. To date, there have been no proposed relationships for impact speeds above which humans are likely to sustain fatal or serious (severe) injury, a more relevant Safe System measure. A research project on Safe System intersection design required a critical review of published literature on the relationship between impact speed and probability of injury. This has led to a number of questions being raised about the origins, accuracy and appropriateness of the currently accepted impact speed–fatality probability relationships (Wramborg 2005) in many policy documents. The literature review identified alternative, more recent and more precise relationships derived from the US crash reconstruction databases (NASS/CDS). The paper proposes for discussion a set of alternative relationships between vehicle impact speed and probability of MAIS3+ (fatal and serious) injury for selected common crash types. Proposed Safe System critical impact speed values are also proposed for use in road infrastructure assessment. The paper presents the methodology and assumptions used in developing these relationships. It identifies further research needed to confirm and refine these relationships. Such relationships would form valuable inputs into future road safety policies in Australia and New Zealand.
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Underground tunnels are vulnerable to terrorist attacks which can cause collapse of the tunnel structures or at least extensive damage, requiring lengthy repairs. This paper treats the blast impact on a reinforced concrete segmental tunnel buried in soil under a number of parametric conditions; soil properties, soil cover, distance of explosive from the tunnel centreline and explosive weight and analyses the possible failure patterns. A fully coupled Fluid Structure Interaction (FSI) technique incorporating the Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) method is used in this study. Results indicate that the tunnel in saturated soil is more vulnerable to severe damage than that buried in either partially saturated soil or dry soil. The tunnel is also more vulnerable to surface explosions which occur directly above the centre of the tunnel than those that occur at any equivalent distances in the ground away from the tunnel centre. The research findings provide useful information on modeling, analysis, overall tunnel response and failure patterns of segmented tunnels subjected to blast loads. This information will guide future development and application of research in this field.
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A 17-year-old white adolescent had a history of chronic diarrhea, delayed puberty, and growth failure. Investigations excluded cystic fibrosis, Shwachman syndrome, and endocrine causes of growth failure. Severe steatorrhea was diagnosed from fecal fat studies, and a jejunal suction biopsy showed total villus atrophy, consistent with a diagnosis of celiac diseases. Following introduction of a gluten-free diet, his appetite and growth improved, but he continued to have abdominal discomfort and loose offensive bowel motions. One year later, severe steatorrhea was present. A repeat jejunal biopsy showed partial recovery of villus architecture. Serum immunoreactive trypsinogen level was low, which was highly suggestive of exocrine pancreatic failure. Results of quantitative pancreatic stimulation test confirmed the presence of primary pancreatic insufficiency. After introduction of oral pancreatic enzyme supplements with meals, his gastrointestinal symptoms resolved and growth velocity accelerated. Previously, primary pancreatic insufficiency has only been described in elderly patients with long-standing untreated celiac disease. This case, however, emphasizes that pancreatic failure can occur with celiac disease at any age. Determination of a serum immunoreactive trypsinogen level should be considered a useful screening tool for pancreatic insufficiency in patients with celiac disease who have not responded to a gluten-free diet.
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The statistical minimum risk pattern recognition problem, when the classification costs are random variables of unknown statistics, is considered. Using medical diagnosis as a possible application, the problem of learning the optimal decision scheme is studied for a two-class twoaction case, as a first step. This reduces to the problem of learning the optimum threshold (for taking appropriate action) on the a posteriori probability of one class. A recursive procedure for updating an estimate of the threshold is proposed. The estimation procedure does not require the knowledge of actual class labels of the sample patterns in the design set. The adaptive scheme of using the present threshold estimate for taking action on the next sample is shown to converge, in probability, to the optimum. The results of a computer simulation study of three learning schemes demonstrate the theoretically predictable salient features of the adaptive scheme.
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Purpose This study evaluated the impact of patient set-up errors on the probability of pulmonary and cardiac complications in the irradiation of left-sided breast cancer. Methods and Materials Using the CMS XiO Version 4.6 (CMS Inc., St Louis, MO) radiotherapy planning system's NTCP algorithm and the Lyman -Kutcher-Burman (LKB) model, we calculated the DVH indices for the ipsilateral lung and heart and the resultant normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCP) for radiation-induced pneumonitis and excess cardiac mortality in 12 left-sided breast cancer patients. Results Isocenter shifts in the posterior direction had the greatest effect on the lung V20, heart V25, mean and maximum doses to the lung and the heart. Dose volume histograms (DVH) results show that the ipsilateral lung V20 tolerance was exceeded in 58% of the patients after 1cm posterior shifts. Similarly, the heart V25 tolerance was exceeded after 1cm antero-posterior and left-right isocentric shifts in 70% of the patients. The baseline NTCPs for radiation-induced pneumonitis ranged from 0.73% - 3.4% with a mean value of 1.7%. The maximum reported NTCP for radiation-induced pneumonitis was 5.8% (mean 2.6%) after 1cm posterior isocentric shift. The NTCP for excess cardiac mortality were 0 % in 100% of the patients (n=12) before and after setup error simulations. Conclusions Set-up errors in left sided breast cancer patients have a statistically significant impact on the Lung NTCPs and DVH indices. However, with a central lung distance of 3cm or less (CLD <3cm), and a maximum heart distance of 1.5cm or less (MHD<1.5cm), the treatment plans could tolerate set-up errors of up to 1cm without any change in the NTCP to the heart.