Robust accelerated failure time regression

Robust estimators for accelerated failure time models with asymmetric (or symmetric) error distribution and censored observations are proposed. It is assumed that the error model belongs to a log-location-scale family of distributions and that the mean response is the parameter of interest. Since scale is a main component of mean, scale is not treated as a nuisance parameter. A three steps procedure is proposed. In the first step, an initial high breakdown point S estimate is computed. In the second step, observations that are unlikely under the estimated model are rejected or down weighted. Finally, a weighted maximum likelihood estimate is computed. To define the estimates, functions of censored residuals are replaced by their estimated conditional expectation given that the response is larger than the observed censored value. The rejection rule in the second step is based on an adaptive cut-off that, asymptotically, does not reject any observation when the data are generat ed according to the model. Therefore, the final estimate attains full efficiency at the model, with respect to the maximum likelihood estimate, while maintaining the breakdown point of the initial estimator. Asymptotic results are provided. The new procedure is evaluated with the help of Monte Carlo simulations. Two examples with real data are discussed.

Effect of low-dose chest irradiation before chemotherapy on the rate of local failure in small-cell lung cancer.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the rate of tumor recurrence within the irradiated volume after initial low-dose irradiation of limited-stage small-cell lung cancer (SCLC), to assess the tolerance of a sequential combination of low-dose chest irradiation followed by chemotherapy, and to confirm the responsiveness of limited-stage SCLC to low-dose irradiation. METHODS AND MATERIALS: In this pilot study, 26 patients with limited-stage SCLC were treated by first-line 20-Gy thoracic irradiation followed 3 weeks later by chemotherapy (cisplatin, doxorubicin, and etoposide for six cycles). RESULTS: We present our final results with a median follow-up of surviving patients of 7 years. The response rate to this low-dose irradiation was 83%, with an overall response rate to radiochemotherapy of 96% and a median survival of 21 months. No unexpected early or late toxicity was observed. The rate of initial isolated local failure was 8%, which compares favorably with other published series using higher doses of radiochemotherapy. CONCLUSION: An initial chest irradiation of 20 Gy before chemotherapy could be sufficient to reduce the risk of local failure during the time of survival of patients with limited-stage SCLC. Potential advantages of this treatment may be the prevention of resistance mechanisms to radiotherapy induced by preliminary chemotherapy and a reduced radiation-induced toxicity.

Sorafenib as third- or fourth-line treatment of advanced gastrointestinal stromal tumour and pretreatment including both imatinib and sunitinib, and nilotinib: A retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) improve the outcome of patients with advanced gastrointestinal stromal tumour (GIST), but treatment failure is frequent, and prognosis then bleak. Smaller trials in this setting suggested activity for sorafenib, a multikinase inhibitor of receptor tyrosine kinases and RAF serine/threonine kinases. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated the efficacy of sorafenib, starting dose 400mg twice daily, in a large community-based cohort of 124 patients treated in 12 European and one United States (U.S.) cancer centre. All but one patient had a WHO performance score 0-2. All had failed both imatinib and sunitinib, 68 patients nilotinib and 26 had failed investigational therapy, too. RESULTS: Twelve (10%) patients responded to sorafenib and 70 (57%) patients achieved disease stabilisation. Sorafenib was moderately tolerated, and toxicity reported in 56% of the patients. Rash, hand-foot-syndrome and diarrhea occurred frequently. Sorafenib dosage was reduced in a third of patients, but this did not have an impact on progression-free survival (PFS) (p=0.15). Median PFS was 6.4months (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.6-8.0months) and median overall survival (OS) 13.5months (95% CI, 10.0-21.0months). Patients with a good performance status and those who responded to sorafenib had a significant better PFS. CONCLUSION: We conclude that sorafenib is active in GIST resistant to imatinib, sunitinib and nilotinib. These results warrant further investigation of sorafenib or similar molecules in GIST.

Monitoring and failure mechanism interpretation of an unstable slope in Southern Switzerland based on terrestrial laser scanner

We present the application of terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) for the monitoring and characterization of an active landslide area in Val Canaria (Ticino, Southern Swiss Alps). At catchment scale, the study area is affected by a large Deep Seated Gravitational Slope Deformation (DSGSD) area presenting, in the lower boundary, several retrogressive landslides active since the 1990s. Due to its frequent landslide events this area was periodically monitored by TLS since 2006. Periodic acquisitions provided new information on 3D displacements at the bottom of slope and the detection of centimetre to decimetre level scale changes (e.g. rockfall and pre-failure deformations). In October 2009, a major slope collapse occured at the bottom of the most unstable area. Based on the comparison between TLS data before and after the collapse, we carried out a detailed failure mechanism analysis and volume calculation.

Does less frequent routine monitoring of patients on a stable, fully suppressed cART regimen lead to an increased risk of treatment failure?

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether HIV-infected patients on a stable and fully suppressive combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) regimen could safely be monitored less often than the current recommendations of every 3 months. DESIGN: Two thousand two hundred and forty patients from the EuroSIDA study who maintained a stable and fully suppressed cART regimen for 1 year were included in the analysis. METHODS: Risk of treatment failure, defined by viral rebound, fall in CD4 cell count, development of new AIDS-defining illness, serious opportunistic infection or death, in the 12 months following a year of a stable and fully suppressed regimen was assessed. RESULTS: One hundred thirty-one (6%) patients experienced treatment failure in the 12 months following a year of stable therapy, viral rebound occurred in 99 (4.6%) patients. After 3, 6 and 12 months, patients had a 0.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.1-0.5], 2.2% (95% CI 1.6-2.8) and 6.0% (95% CI 5.0-7.0) risk of treatment failure, respectively. Patients who spent more than 80% of their time on cART with fully suppressed viraemia prior to baseline had a 38% reduced risk of treatment failure, hazard ratio 0.62 (95% CI 0.42-0.90, P = 0.01). CONCLUSION: Patients who have responded well to cART and are on a well tolerated and durably fully suppressive cART regimen have a low chance of experiencing treatment failure in the next 3-6 months. Therefore, in this subgroup of otherwise healthy patients, it maybe reasonable to extend visit intervals to 6 months, with cost and time savings to both the treating clinics and the patients.

Structural analysis of Turtle Mountain: Origin and influence of fractures in the development of rock slope failures

Large slope failures in fractured rocks are often controlled by the combination of pre-existing tectonic fracturing and brittle failure propagation in the intact rock mass during the pre-failure phase. This study focuses on the influence of fold-related fractures and of post-folding fractures on slope instabilities with emphasis on Turtle Mountain, located in SW Alberta (Canada). The structural features of Turtle Mountain, especially to the south of the 1903 Frank Slide, were investigated using a high-resolution digital elevation model combined with a detailed field survey. These investigations allowed the identification of six main discontinuity sets influencing the slope instability and surface morphology. According to the different deformation phases affecting the area, the potential origin of the detected fractures was assessed. Three discontinuity sets are correlated with the folding phase and the others with post-folding movements. In order to characterize the rock mass quality in the different portions of the Turtle Mountain anticline, the geological strength index (GSI) has been estimated. The GSI results show a decrease in rock mass quality approaching the fold hinge area due to higher fracture persistence and higher weathering. These observations allow us to propose a model for the potential failure mechanisms related to fold structures.

Combining digital elevation model analysis and run-out modeling to characterize hazard posed by a potentially unstable rock slope at Turtle Mountain, Alberta, Canada

Turtle Mountain in Alberta, Canada has become an important field laboratory for testing different techniques related to the characterization and monitoring of large slope mass movements as the stability of large portions of the eastern face of the mountain is still questionable. In order to better quantify the volumes potentially unstable and the most probable failure mechanisms and potential consequences, structural analysis and runout modeling were preformed. The structural features of the eastern face were investigated using a high resolution digital elevation model (HRDEM). According to displacement datasets and structural observations, potential failure mechanisms affecting different portions of the mountain have been assessed. The volumes of the different potentially unstable blocks have been calculated using the Sloping Local Base Level (SLBL) method. Based on the volume estimation, two and three dimensional dynamic runout analyses have been performed. Calibration of this analysis is based on the experience from the adjacent Frank Slide and other similar rock avalanches. The results will be used to improve the contingency plans within the hazard area.

Nonoccupational HIV post-exposure prophylaxis: a 10-year retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: We conducted a retrospective analysis of administration of nonoccupational HIV post-exposure prophylaxis (nPEP) in a single centre where tracing and testing of the source of exposure were carried out systematically over a 10-year period. METHODS: Files of all nPEP requests between 1998 and 2007 were reviewed. Characteristics of the exposed and source patients, the type of exposure, and clinical and serological outcomes were analysed. RESULTS: nPEP requests increased by 850% over 10 years. Among 910 events, 58% were heterosexual exposures, 15% homosexual exposures, 6% sexual assaults and 20% nonsexual exposures. In 208 events (23%), the source was reported to be HIV positive. In the remaining cases, active source tracing enabled 298 HIV tests to be performed (42%) and identified 11 HIV infections (3.7%). nPEP was able to be avoided or interrupted in 31% of 910 events when the source tested negative. Of 710 patients who started nPEP, 396 (56%) reported side effects, among whom 39 (5%) had to interrupt treatment. There were two HIV seroconversions, and neither was attributed to nPEP failure. CONCLUSIONS: nPEP requests increased over time. HIV testing of the source person avoided nPEP in 31% of events and was therefore paramount in the management of potential HIV exposures. Furthermore, it allowed active screening of populations potentially at risk for undiagnosed HIV infection, as shown by the increased HIV prevalence in these groups (3.7%) compared with a prevalence of 0.3% in Switzerland as a whole.

Factors predisposing to dislocation after primary total hip arthroplasty: a multivariate analysis.

We conducted this study to determine the relative influence of various mechanical and patient-related factors on the incidence of dislocation after primary total hip asthroplasty (THA). Of 2,023 THAs, 21 patients who had at least 1 dislocation were compared with a control group of 21 patients without dislocation, matched for age, gender, pathology, and year of surgery. Implant positioning, seniority of the surgeon, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, and diminished motor coordination were recorded. Data analysis included univariate and multivariate methods. The dislocation risk was 6.9 times higher if total anteversion was not between 40 degrees and 60 degrees and 10 times higher in patients with high ASA scores. Surgeons should pay attention to total anteversion (cup and stem) of THA. The ASA score should be part of the preoperative assessment of the dislocation risk.

Predictors of mortality from pump failure and sudden cardiac death in patients with systolic heart failure and left ventricular dyssynchrony: results of the CARE-HF trial.

BACKGROUND: Determining a specific death cause may facilitate individualized therapy in patients with heart failure (HF). Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) decreased mortality in the Cardiac Resynchronization in Heart Failure trial by reducing pump failure and sudden cardiac death (SCD). This study analyzes predictors of specific causes of death. METHODS AND RESULTS: Univariate and multivariate analyses used 8 baseline and 3-month post-randomization variables to predict pump failure and SCD (categorized as "definite," "probable," and "possible"). Of 255 deaths, 197 were cardiovascular. There were 71 SCDs with a risk reduction by CRT of 0.47 (95% confidence interval 0.29-0.76; P = .002) with similar reductions in SCD classified as definite, probable, and possible. Univariate SCD predictors were 3-month HF status (mitral regurgitation [MR] severity, plasma brain natriuretic peptide [BNP], end-diastolic volume, and systolic blood pressure), whereas randomization to CRT decreased risk. Multivariate SCD predictors were randomization to CRT 0.56 (0.53-0.96, P = .035) and 3-month MR severity 1.82 (1.77-2.60, P = .0012). Univariate pump failure death predictors related to baseline HF state (quality of life score, interventricular mechanical delay, end-diastolic volume, plasma BNP, MR severity, and systolic pressure), whereas randomization to CRT and nonischemic cardiomyopathy decreased risk; multivariate predictors of pump failure death were baseline plasma BNP and systolic pressure and randomization to CRT. CONCLUSION: CRT decreased SCD in patients with systolic HF and ventricular dyssynchrony. SCD risk was increased with increased severity of MR (including the 3-month value for MR as a time-dependent covariate) and reduced by randomization to CRT. HF death was increased related to the level of systolic blood pressure, log BNP, and randomization to CRT. These results emphasize the importance and interdependence of HF severity to mortality from pump failure and SCD.

Prognostic Importance of the Cuse of Renal Failure in Patients With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The prognostic value of the different causes of renal failure in cirrhosis is not well established. This study investigated the predictive value of the cause of renal failure in cirrhosis. METHODS: Five hundred sixty-two consecutive patients with cirrhosis and renal failure (as defined by serum creatinine 1.5 mg/dL on 2 successive determinations within 48 hours) hospitalized over a 6-year period in a single institution were included in a prospective study. The cause of renal failure was classified into 4 groups: renal failure associated with bacterial infections, renal failure associated with volume depletion, hepatorenal syndrome (HRS), and parenchymal nephropathy. The primary end point was survival at 3 months. RESULTS: Four hundred sixty-three patients (82.4%) had renal failure that could be classified in 1 of 4 groups. The most frequent was renal failure associated with infections (213 cases; 46%), followed by hypovolemia-associated renal failure (149; 32%), HRS (60; 13%), and parenchymal nephropathy (41; 9%). The remaining patients had a combination of causes or miscellaneous conditions. Prognosis was markedly different according to cause of renal failure, 3-month probability of survival being 73% for parenchymal nephropathy, 46% for hypovolemia-associated renal failure, 31% for renal failure associated with infections, and 15% for HRS (P .0005). In a multivariate analysis adjusted for potentially confounding variables, cause of renal failure was independently associated with prognosis, together with MELD score, serum sodium, and hepatic encephalopathy at time of diagnosis of renal failure. CONCLUSIONS: A simple classification of patients with cirrhosis according to cause of renal failure is useful in assessment of prognosis and may help in decision making in liver transplantation.

Early prediction of response to sunitinib after imatinib failure by 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography in patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumor.

PURPOSE: Positron emission tomography with (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG-PET) was used to evaluate treatment response in patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) after administration of sunitinib, a multitargeted tyrosine kinase inhibitor, after imatinib failure. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Tumor metabolism was assessed with FDG-PET before and after the first 4 weeks of sunitinib therapy in 23 patients who received one to 12 cycles of sunitinib therapy (4 weeks of 50 mg/d, 2 weeks off). Treatment response was expressed as the percent change in maximal standardized uptake values (SUV). The primary end point of time to tumor progression was compared with early PET results on the basis of traditional Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) criteria. RESULTS: Progression-free survival (PFS) was correlated with early FDG-PET metabolic response (P < .0001). Using -25% and +25% thresholds for SUV variations from baseline, early FDG-PET response was stratified in metabolic partial response, metabolically stable disease, or metabolically progressive disease; median PFS rates were 29, 16, and 4 weeks, respectively. Similarly, when a single FDG-PET positive/negative was considered after 4 weeks of sunitinib, the median PFS was 29 weeks for SUVs less than 8 g/mL versus 4 weeks for SUVs of 8 g/mL or greater (P < .0001). None of the patients with metabolically progressive disease subsequently responded according to RECIST criteria. Multivariate analysis showed shorter PFS in patients who had higher residual SUVs (P < .0001), primary resistance to imatinib (P = .024), or nongastric GIST (P = .002), regardless of the mutational status of the KIT and PDGFRA genes. CONCLUSION: Week 4 FDG-PET is useful for early assessment of treatment response and for the prediction of clinical outcome. Thus, it offers opportunities to individualize and optimize patient therapy.

Efficacy, safety and tolerability of linezolid containing regimens in treating MDR-TB and XDR-TB: systematic review and meta-analysis.

Linezolid is used off-label to treat multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) in absence of systematic evidence. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis on efficacy, safety and tolerability of linezolid-containing regimes based on individual data analysis. 12 studies (11 countries from three continents) reporting complete information on safety, tolerability, efficacy of linezolid-containing regimes in treating MDR-TB cases were identified based on Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Meta-analysis was performed using the individual data of 121 patients with a definite treatment outcome (cure, completion, death or failure). Most MDR-TB cases achieved sputum smear (86 (92.5%) out of 93) and culture (100 (93.5%) out of 107) conversion after treatment with individualised regimens containing linezolid (median (inter-quartile range) times for smear and culture conversions were 43.5 (21-90) and 61 (29-119) days, respectively) and 99 (81.8%) out of 121 patients were successfully treated. No significant differences were detected in the subgroup efficacy analysis (daily linezolid dosage ≤600 mg versus >600 mg). Adverse events were observed in 63 (58.9%) out of 107 patients, of which 54 (68.4%) out of 79 were major adverse events that included anaemia (38.1%), peripheral neuropathy (47.1%), gastro-intestinal disorders (16.7%), optic neuritis (13.2%) and thrombocytopenia (11.8%). The proportion of adverse events was significantly higher when the linezolid daily dosage exceeded 600 mg. The study results suggest an excellent efficacy but also the necessity of caution in the prescription of linezolid.

Identification of the pathological alterations underlying respiratory failure in myotonic dystrophy transgenic mice

AbstractMyotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1), also known as Steinert's disease, is an inherited autosomal dominant disease. DM1 is characterized by myotonia, muscular weakness and atrophy, but it has a multisystemic phenotype. The genetic basis of the disease is the abnormal expansion of CTG repeats in the 3' untranslated region of the DM protein kinase (DMPK) gene on chromosome 19. The size of the expansion correlates to the severity of the disease and the age of onset.Respiratory problems have long been recognized to be a major feature of the disease and are the main factor contributing to mortality ; however the mechanisms are only partly known. The aim of our study is to investigate whether respiratory failure results only from the involvement of the dystrophic process at the level of the respiratory muscles or comes also from abnormalities in the neuronal network that generates and controls the respiratory rhythm. The generation of valid transgenic mice displaying the human DM1 phenotype by the group of Dr. Gourdon provided us a useful tool to analyze the brain stem respiratory neurons, spinal phrenic motoneurons and phrenic nerves. We examined therefore these structures in transgenic mice carrying 350-500 CTGs and displaying a mild form of the disease (DM1 mice). The morphological and morphometric analysis of diaphragm muscle sections revealed a denervation of the end-plates (EPs), characterized by a decrease in size and shape complexity of EPs and a reduction in the density of acetylcholine receptors (AChRs). Also a strong and significant reduction in the number of phrenic unmyelinated fibers was detected, but not in the myelinated fibers. In addition, no pathological changes were detected in the cervical motoneurons and medullary respiratory centers (Panaite et al., 2008). These results suggest that the breathing rhythm is probably not affected in mice expressing a mild form of DM1, but rather the transmission of action potentials at the level of diaphragm NMJs is deficient.Because size of the mutation increases over generations, new transgenic mice were obtained from the mice with 350-500 CTGs, resulting from a large increase of CTG repeat in successive generations, these mice carry more than 1300 CTGs (DMSXL) and display a severe DM1 phenotype (Gomes-Pereira et al., 2007). Before we study the mechanism underlying the respiratory failure in DMSXL mice, we analyzed the peripheral nervous system (PNS) in these mice by electrophysiological, histological and morphometric methods. Our results provide strong evidence that DMSXL mice have motor neuropathy (Panaite et al., 2010, submitted). Therefore the DMSXL mice expressing severe DM1 features represent for us a good tool to investigate, in the future, the physiological, structural and molecular alterations underlying respiratory failure in DM1. Understanding the mechanism of respiratory deficiency will help to better target the therapy of these problems in DM1 patients. In addition our results may, in the future, orientate pharmaceutical and clinical research towards possible development of therapy against respiratory deficits associated with the DM1.RésuméLa dystrophic myotonique type 1 (DM1), aussi dénommée maladie de Steinert, est une maladie héréditaire autosomique dominante. Elle est caractérisée par une myotonie, une faiblesse musculaire avec atrophie et se manifeste aussi par un phénotype multisystémique. La base génétique de la maladie est une expansion anormale de répétitions CTG dans une région non traduite en 3' du gène de la DM protéine kinase (DMPK) sur le chromosome 19. La taille de l'expansion est corrélée avec la sévérité et l'âge d'apparition de DM1.Bien que les problèmes respiratoires soient reconnus depuis longtemps comme une complication de la maladie et soient le principal facteur contribuant à la mortalité, les mécanismes en sont partiellement connus. Le but de notre étude est d'examiner si l'insuffisance respiratoire de la DM1 est dû au processus dystrophique au niveau des muscles respiratoires ou si elle est entraînée aussi par des anomalies dans le réseau neuronal qui génère et contrôle le rythme respiratoire. La production par le groupe du Dr. Gourdon de souris transgéniques de DM1, manifestant le phénotype de DM1 humaine, nous a fourni un outil pour analyser les nerfs phréniques, les neurones des centres respiratoires du tronc cérébral et les motoneurones phréniques. Par conséquence, nous avons examiné ces structures chez des souris transgéniques portant 350-500 CTG et affichant une forme légère de la maladie (souris DM1). L'analyse morphologique et morphométrique des sections du diaphragme a révélé une dénervation des plaques motrices et une diminution de la taille et de la complexité de la membrane postsynaptîque, ainsi qu'une réduction de la densité des récepteurs à l'acétylcholine. Nous avons aussi détecté une réduction significative du nombre de fibres nerveuses non myélinisées mais pas des fibres myélinisées. Par ailleurs, aucun changement pathologique n'a été détecté pour les neurones moteurs médullaires cervicaux et centres respiratoires du tronc cérébral (Panaite et al., 2008). Ces résultats suggèrent que le iythme respiratoire n'est probablement pas affecté chez les souris manifestant une forme légère du DM1, mais plutôt que la transmission des potentiels d'action au niveau des plaques motrices du diaphragme est déficiente.Comme la taille du mutation augmente au fil des générations, de nouvelles souris transgéniques ont été générés par le groupe Gourdon; ces souris ont plus de 1300 CTG (DMSXL) et manifestent un phénotype sévère du DM1 (Gomes-Pereira et al., 2007). Avant d'étudier le mécanisme sous-jacent de l'insuffisance respiratoire chez les souris DMSXL, nous avons analysé le système nerveux périphérique chez ces souris par des méthodes électrophysiologiques, histologiques et morphométriques. Nos résultats fournissent des preuves solides que les souris DMSXL manifestent une neuropathie motrice (Panaite et al., 2010, soumis). Par conséquent, les souris DMSXL représentent pour nous un bon outil pour étudier, à l'avenir, les modifications physiologiques, morphologiques et moléculaires qui sous-tendent l'insuffisance respiratoire du DM1. La connaissance du mécanisme de déficience respiratoire en DM1 aidera à mieux cibler le traitement de ces problèmes aux patients. De plus, nos résultats pourront, à l'avenir, orienter la recherche pharmaceutique et clinique vers le développement de thérapie contre le déficit respiratoire associé à DM1.